Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine

Sibylus · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
Especially after what is fast becoming eight years of this shit. Hell, it was noted earlier in this thread that soldiers in the ground probably won't have access to the level of information we do of the wider context/battlefield, to keep them immediately focused and to avoid mulling on information they 'don't need'. But a result of that could be to isolate and increase the apparent shock of what happens to them. Someone might choose to respond accordingly without it going all the way to the top.

Communications breaking down or being cut would also worsen such risks of compartmentalized decision-making in the thick of things. If I'm in the Ukrainian position and ground lines are seemingly being tampered with the day of intense shelling, I have to suspect the worst and hedge against the two being connected, as though the goal might be to spur as many isolated soldiers as possible to make snap judgments about if this thing has kicked off for real or if it hasn't.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

jem said:
I feel like you need some seriously large blinders to reach the conclusions some of these people are making.

Some, but to me that's still pretty symptomatic of wider movements, experiences and informational sourcing

Like with the... video that got posted a few days back, and the comment discussion that got screencapped here. Like, it felt bizarre to me to see someone - the authors of that video even - claim that something named the Wagner group didn't show Neo-Nazi ties, even though it's in the very name, and admitted as much by the founder that gave his callsign to it

But then, the moment I considered someone not being aware of Wagner or his influence on German nationalism in the late 19th and early 20th century - which is something I've discovered to be quite easy, honestly, due to the focus on Naziism as isolated phenomenon - and in turn not being aware of the name's origin specific to the group, then honestly it became pretty easy to assume that they had nothing going on.

Now, you'd think the makers of the video would further investigate that, but either way the impact to what information others (don't) receive and how their position is informed by that remains

Edit:

Sibylus said:
Communications breaking down or being cut would also worsen such risks of compartmentalized decision-making in the thick of things. If I'm in the Ukrainian position and ground lines are seemingly being tampered with the day of intense shelling, I have to suspect the worst and hedge against the two being connected, as though the goal might be to spur as many isolated soldiers as possible to make snap judgments about if this thing has kicked off for real or if it hasn't.

Also yeah. Especially as ultimately it remains nevertheless functionally easy to separate the actions that one would take prior to an attack, from an attack for those taking said actions, versus those who respond and have to predict what's going to happen. "Enemy will cut comms but not actually attack us" is an unintuitive answer

BLEEN · Feb 19, 2022

All it takes is for some third party to come out of nowhere and throw things into chaos.

I wouldn't put it past Russia to just do that themselves if that makes sense.

Level heads better prevail.

B-Dubs · Feb 19, 2022

Official Staff Communication

Listen, there's not going to be any "oh, let's talk shit about this thread on the site" crap going on. We banned the person who started it, but no more of that shit.

Jibreel · Feb 19, 2022

What a peculiar claim that mercenaries, particularly from Muslim majority countries in Europe, are sending mercenaries to fight on the behest of Ukraine. I'm sure this isn't a ploy to rile up far right European sentiment and use as a justification for Russia sending forces in.

sarcasm of course it is

Officials of Albania, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina have rejected claims made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that these countries are sending "mercenaries" to fight in Ukraine, where there are fears of a Russian invasion.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Could be just rhetoric, but this may be an interesting development:

Much has been made of how the escalation may have been done in the comfort of tacit Chinese support, or lack of confrontation, so this might suggest such has been overestimated

Edit:

Jibreel said:
What a peculiar claim that mercenaries, particularly from Muslim majority countries in Europe, are sending mercenaries to fight on the behest Ukraine. I'm sure this isn't a ploy to rile up far right European sentiment and use as a justification for Russia sending forces in.

If not genuine, this might be done as a parallel to other reports about Russian mercenaries overseas - such as the Wagner Group in Mali - being called back to deploy to Ukraine instead.

Kensation · Feb 19, 2022

TheGummyBear · Feb 19, 2022

So Russia decided to emabrass America by... postponing a few days?

Not just that, they didn't wipe the fucking metadata? The metadata that proves american intelligence correct?

everdom · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
Could be just rhetoric, but this may be an interesting development:

Much has been made of how the escalation may have been done in the comfort of tacit Chinese support, or lack of confrontation, so this might suggest such has been overestimated

Edit:

If not genuine, this might be done as a parallel to other reports about Russian mercenaries overseas - such as the Wagner Group in Mali - being called back to deploy to Ukraine instead.

A lot of this hinges on what China considers "Sovereign Territory", it allows them to be rhetorically consistent whilst diplomatically flexible because their interests define what is and isn't sovereign territory.

It seems like they are saying "Not our fight" though which is a good sign for a diplomatic off ramp.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Also Russian troops are officially in Belarus indefintely:

UnderNewOwnership · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
Also Russian troops are officially in Belarus indefintely:

This is Jack's complete lack of surprise.

KingSnake · Feb 19, 2022

Threaten to occupy Ukraine, get Belarus in the process.

GTAce · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
Could be just rhetoric, but this may be an interesting development:

Much has been made of how the escalation may have been done in the comfort of tacit Chinese support, or lack of confrontation, so this might suggest such has been overestimated

This is something at least.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

everdom said:
A lot of this hinges on what China considers "Sovereign Territory", it allows them to be rhetorically consistent whilst diplomatically flexible because their interests define what is and isn't sovereign territory.

It seems like they are saying "Not our fight" though which is a good sign for a diplomatic off ramp.

They seem to emphasize things being resolved through the Minsk Agreement, though whether they mean the original or II is another matter

China foreign minister says Minsk Agreement 'only way out' on Ukraine

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday called the Minsk Agreement the "only way out" for resolving the Ukraine situation, and said Ukraine should not be a frontline for competition among major powers.

www.reuters.com

https://twitter.com/reuterssarah/status/1495022256803782659

Kensation · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
Also Russian troops are officially in Belarus indefintely:

Except that they explicitly stated previously that the "drills" would end on the 20th and the troops would return to their posts, but whatevs.

TheGummyBear · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
Also Russian troops are officially in Belarus indefintely:

My renewed hope is that Belarus was the target all along, and this is a soft takeover. Considering there is historical bad blood between Putin and Lukashenko.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

TheGummyBear said:
My renewed hope is that Belarus was the target all along, and this is a soft takeover. Considering there is historical bad blood between Putin and Lukashenko.

It's a bitter kind of 'hope', but maybe. That said, I don't think you'd see the escalation around the Separatist Republics if so - what point is there to claiming a rocket hitting Rostov, over the Russian border, for such?

UnderNewOwnership · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
They seem to emphasize things being resolved through the Minsk Agreement, though whether they mean the original or II is another matter

Except the Minsk Agreement is all but dead. Ukrainians would never accept two Russian puppets dictating the entire country's foreign policy (it would be no better than what Yanukovich tried to pull), and Putin has no intention of accepting a version of the Minsk Agreement where Ukraine isn't controlled by his two pet regions.

pulsemyne · Feb 19, 2022

That's a very pointed smack in the face from china. They do have certain deals and interests in ukraine so anything that screws with that is not good. Also they do not want to see a jump in oil and gas prices that could mess with their economy.

JCizzle · Feb 19, 2022

Bionicman said:
Has this been posted? Der Spiegel leaking a 1991 document about a NATO meeting in Bonn and making pledges not to induct Poland into NATO as well as not taking advantage of Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe and expanding Eastward.

The article is paywalled and my German is beginner level, can anyone with access post the document?

I'm curious why an article about NATO and Poland matters as Ukraine is seemingly about to be invaded by Russia? What about this article could possibly justify Russia invading an entirely different country? Does one country freely electing to join a coalition give Russia dibs on a totally different country like they're calling shotgun for a car seat?

KastuśKalinoŭski · Feb 19, 2022

Is it though?

Holodomor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russian conquest of Siberia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

At the hands of people such as Vasilii Poyarkov in 1645 and Yerofei Khabarov in 1650 some many people, including members of the Daur tribe, were killed by the Cossacks. 8,000 out of a previous population of 20,000 in Kamchatka remained after the first half century of the Russian conquest.
...
In the Lena basin, 70% of the Yakut population declined within 40 years, native women were raped and, along with children, were often enslaved in order to force the natives to pay the Yasak.

Frankfurter · Feb 19, 2022

Pretty interesting statement considering that Scholz absolutely didn't make a "joke".

Mivey · Feb 19, 2022

Making holocaust allusions because people don't take your false flag genocide nonsense seriously is pretty fucked up.

Mentalist · Feb 19, 2022

It should be noted that this morning, for the second time this week, the Tripartite Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE) could not meet, due to the absence of Russian delegates.

The TCG is supposed to be a format to discuss the elements of implementation of Minsk agreements and used to be where Russia would pass on the requests of their puppet states.

Continuously blocking the TCG from quorum indicates that Russia isn't interested in any further negotiations with Ukraine. It wants the West to tell Ukraine what to do. Except the West has no leverage on Zelensky that can outweigh the domestic pressures he'd face back in Kyiv, and no one in the West can guarantee him any protection if his concessions spark another Maidan.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Mentalist said:
It should be noted that this morning, for the second time this week, the Tripartite Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE) could not meet, due to the absence of Russian delegates.

The TCG is supposed to be a format to discuss the elements of implementation of Minsk agreements and used to be where Russia would pass on the requests of their puppet states.

Continuously blocking the TCG from quorum indicates that Russia isn't interested in any further negotiations with Ukraine. It wants the West to tell Ukraine what to do. Except the West has no leverage on Zelensky that can outweigh the domestic pressures he'd face back in Kyiv, and no one in the West can guarantee him any protection if his concessions spark another Maidan.

Probably also frustrates things where people call for diplomacy, unaware that one of the main forums where they're supposed to be doing this isn't even functioning right now

kmfdmpig · Feb 19, 2022

Mivey said:
Making holocaust allusions because people don't take your false flag genocide nonsense seriously is pretty fucked up.

It is but Russia correctly senses weakness from Germany regarding this situation which seems to partially stem from guilt, so its a play they figured would work.

Mentalist · Feb 19, 2022

Zelensky in Munich is (correctly) stating that in 2008 when Putin proclaimed his course on restoring Russian "sphere of influence" the West's passivity is comparable to appeasement.

And then he overlays his hand by demanding a timeline/roadmap for Ukraine's integration into the West.

MilkBeard · Feb 19, 2022

I've seen multiple reports of this happening.

Expect Russian Nazis to possibly play some dirty tricks in Donetsk.

kmfdmpig · Feb 19, 2022

MilkBeard said:
I've seen multiple reports of this happening.

Expect Russian Nazis to possibly play some dirty tricks in Donetsk.

The useful idiots were accidentally right. Nazis in Ukraine are going to cause problems.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Mentalist said:
Zelensky in Munich is (correctly) stating that in 2008 when Putin proclaimed his course on restoring Russian "sphere of influence" the West's passivity is comparable to appeasement.

And then he overlays his hand by demanding a timeline/roadmap for Ukraine's integration into the West.

Hoooooo boy that's... quite something to go for

MilkBeard said:
I've seen multiple reports of this happening.

Expect Russian Nazis to possibly play some dirty tricks in Donetsk.

Ukrainian Intelligence's own report on such:

Щодо загрози здійснення терористичних актів на об’єктах промисловості так званих ДНР та ЛНР

gur.gov.ua

It's... surreal. We're at a point where the apparent best defence is to just publish this shit as and when they discover it

Sunnz · Feb 19, 2022

My wife lives in Lithuania, was planning on going and visiting her family sometime in April.
Not sure if it's a good idea now...

Just when it felt like it was getting better too.

Everyone " Russia gonna create fake news to use as invasion reason"

Russia " not true ".
* Actually starts to create fake reasons to invade*
It's 2022 and this shit is potentially gonna happen. Outrageous.

El Bombastico · Feb 19, 2022

kmfdmpig said:
The useful idiots were accidentally right. Nazis in Ukraine are going to cause problems.

Any other time I'd be laughing. But not now...

kmfdmpig · Feb 19, 2022

El Bombastico said:
Any other time I'd be laughing. But not now...

I know. The situation is horrible. I was thinking this morning that even the Russian soldiers (not the Wagner group) I have some sympathy for. On the one hand if they invade I want the Ukrainians to eviscerate them and send them packing but on the other hand the average Russian soldier is as much a victim of Putin's BS as anyone else. It's an awful situation all the way around.

JosephManderley · Feb 19, 2022

kmfdmpig said:
I know. The situation is horrible. I was thinking this morning that even the Russian soldiers (not the Wagner group) I have some sympathy for. On the one hand if they invade I want the Ukrainians to eviscerate them and send them packing but on the other hand the average Russian soldier is as much a victim of Putin's BS as anyone else. It's an awful situation all the way around.

I totally agree. I'm kinda hoping Putin gets struck by lightning or something! The Russian people deserve better.

Bionicman · Feb 19, 2022

JCizzle said:
I'm curious why an article about NATO and Poland matters as Ukraine is seemingly about to be invaded by Russia? What about this article could possibly justify Russia invading an entirely different country? Does one country freely electing to join a coalition give Russia dibs on a totally different country like they're calling shotgun for a car seat?

Well the article and the alleged pledge isn't about Poland only, it's about NATO expanding eastwards towards the former USSR countries the Soviet Union retreated from.

Second the list of demands Putin is putting forwards with his brinkmanship isn't about Ukraine only, it's demanding NATO pulls all the way back to the pre 1997 borders.

Third the alleged pledge to not expand east by NATO is one of the main Russian propaganda talking points to support their aggressive posture.

The situation isn't just about Ukraine, it's about reorganizing the European security order in a way that suits Russia better than the deal they got back in the 90's now that Putin has Imperialistic aspiration backed by a resurgent army.

So this article is important in knowing whether or not NATO promised not to move East and in order to understand Russian escalation. Reading it is of course optional.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

So, to be expected, Ukraine refutes the claims of having fired into Rostov:

Further, they say their GRAD systems - the type of artillery fired across the border - are more than 21km from the contact line. That said, that would only really apply for shorter range variants, while others do have almost double that for range

Mentalist · Feb 19, 2022

Zelensky's talking points are something else...

Accuse the West of not upholding their commitments as per Budapest Memorandum - Con

Putting forth a suggestion for a new European Security Summit -featuring the permanent Security Council members + Germany & Turkey - Pro.

It's good to see actual initiative. Of course, this will all be redundant if Russians launch another actual offensive.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Mentalist said:
Zelensky's talking points are something else...

Accuse the West of not upholding their commitments as per Budapest Memorandum - Con

Putting forth a suggestion for a new European Security Summit -featuring the permanent Security Council members + Germany & Turkey - Pro.

It's good to see actual initiative. Of course, this will all be redundant if Russians launch another actual offensive.

I'm seeing some reports claim he's even considering invalidating the Budapest Memorandum, if they're not given security guarantees. That... can't be right, yeah?

JCizzle · Feb 19, 2022

Bionicman said:
Well the article and the alleged pledge isn't about Poland only, it's about NATO expanding eastwards towards the former USSR countries the Soviet Union retreated from.

Second the list of demands Putin is putting forwards with his brinkmanship isn't about Ukraine only, it's demanding NATO pulls all the way back to the pre 1997 borders.

Third the alleged pledge to not expand east by NATO is one of the main Russian propaganda talking points to support their aggressive posture.

The situation isn't just about Ukraine, it's about reorganizing the European security order in a way that suits Russia better than the deal they got back in the 90's now that Putin has Imperialistic aspiration backed by a resurgent army.

So this article is important in knowing whether or not NATO promised not to move East and in order to understand Russian escalation. Reading it is of course optional.

How can you say that this isn't just about Ukraine when Ukraine - an independent, sovereign country - is about to be invaded? Pointing fingers at NATO in this situation just doesn't seem relevant at all, at least in my opinion.

mbpm · Feb 19, 2022

Mentalist said:
And then he overlays his hand by demanding a timeline/roadmap for Ukraine's integration into the West.

Is that going to happen soon?

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

JCizzle said:
How can you say that this isn't just about Ukraine when Ukraine - an independent, sovereign country - is about to be invaded? I struggle to see how or why NATO is relevant to Russia invading another country. Russia is posed to invade, not NATO.

They literally explain as much in that it's relevant as factoring in for Russia's motives and rhetoric. Whether or not it holds up is another matter, and really, only invites the question of how binding a non-binding commitment like that should be, especially where accession was initiated by the states in question

Bionicman · Feb 19, 2022

JCizzle said:
How can you say that this isn't just about Ukraine when Ukraine - an independent, sovereign country - is about to be invaded? I struggle to see how or why NATO is relevant to Russia invading another country.

You literally have the guy threatening to invade making demands that go beyond Ukraine that affects Poland, the Baltic states, Hungary and all of Eastern Europe in demanding verbatim for NATO to withdraw from these countries.

JCizzle said:
Russia is posed to invade, not NATO.

Yeah? And Russia is demanding political concessions from practically the whole of NATO in Eastern Europe and not just Ukraine.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Huh, apparently Zelensky is asking that sanctions start sooner, rather than if a war actually starts. That's... hrm, an uncertain strategy

Like, maybe partial implementation that could be quickly run back if the Russian Federation does indeed pull back its troops, but this could end being the sort of thing to invite a disregard of the consequences

Kensation · Feb 19, 2022

If you start the sanctions now, than any leverage (as small as it may be) to discourage an invasion is lost.

jackie daytona · Feb 19, 2022

One thing to note about Zelensky's sanction demands: if they have hard evidence that the invasion has been ordered beyond any point of return, which is likely given the activities in the past 24-48 hours in eastern Ukraine, it could make sense to implement the sanctions now, or at least a partial run up.

Just because we haven't seen the explosion yet, doesn't mean they don't know the fuse has already been lit.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 19, 2022

Well, they're making an appeal to the OSCE at least, so... good luck with that?

JCizzle · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
They literally explain as much in that it's relevant as factoring in for Russia's motives and rhetoric. Whether or not it holds up is another matter, and really, only invites the question of how binding a non-binding commitment like that should be, especially where accession was initiated by the states in question

Whether a non binding commitment holds up as justification for invading another country that hasn't itself joined NATO?

Bionicman said:
You literally have the guy threatening to invade making demands that go beyond Ukraine that affects Poland, the Baltic states, Hungary and all of Eastern Europe in demanding verbatim for NATO to withdraw from these countries.

Yeah? And Russia is demanding political concessions from practically the whole of NATO in Eastern Europe and not just Ukraine.

Again, I fail to see how it justifies or qualifies as an honest motivation for invading a sovereign country. Just because they cite it as motivation doesn't mean it deserves attention from rational actors.

Mentalist · Feb 19, 2022

JonnyDBrit said:
I'm seeing some reports claim he's even considering invalidating the Budapest Memorandum, if they're not given security guarantees. That... can't be right, yeah?

I mean, essentially he's saying something that's been tiptoed about for 8 years.

Any country that gives up its nukes becomes subject to the whims of any nuclear power.

As much as it sucks for the world in general, the fact that Russia could just go an annex Crimea tells places like North Korea and Iran that there is no way in hell they should ever agree to nuclear disarmament.

And if Ukraine wants to guarantee it won't lose any further territory, and it can't obtain those guarantees by being a part of NATO... Well, it still has the capacity to manufacture missiles, and it has the knowhow to enrich nuclear material. (the first Soviet experiments with nuclear fission took place in Kharkiv, after all) And it has uranium mines.

I don't see anything happening, because it's all prohibitively expensive; but Zelensky is absolutely correct is outlining the actual paradigm Europe is now in.

Bunzy · Feb 19, 2022

GTAce said:
This is something at least.

Hahaha, this might be looking at the time when we can say this was where Purim's downfall happened. He thought he was going to just stroll in and get what he wanted, now you have a very unified Europe, US, and possibly China coming in hard on them

Bunzy · Feb 19, 2022

This really all could be a set up to take Belarus honestly.

Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine

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