Seems like there is just going to come a point in time that Putin makes a decision, The US/NATO has time and again stated it is up the individual aspiring country if they want to join or not, and not some outside 3rd party. I know Scholz tried to find some grey area there, but it didn't look like Putin was too amused about that (About needing to wait until Putin dies)
Putin dying changes nothing about this whole situation. The anti-Eastern NATO expansion sentiment is held by the vast majority of those in power in Russia right now and is a general sentiment around the whole population. It's the same shit I've seen people say around "wait for the Republicans to die out" in the US, this is a belief festered over decades that has been passed down to the next generation, and NATO's involvement in the breakup of Yugoslavia, in Afghanistan, etc. are things that you're gonna hear touted for years as reasons why Russians are not going to believe NATO is a "purely defensive organization."
Also, at a certain point, you have to accept realities on the ground and not your ideal world order. NATO can kick and scream all it wants about sovereign entities having self determination about joining, but that's no longer an entirely realistic proposition as we're seeing world order realign in ways that ensure, no, that definitely won't happen. Russia will invade any country and start another territory dispute to ensure that state will never join NATO. Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine have all witnessed this, and if any country in Central Asia (though China's influence in the region also creates a different set of circumstances) or Belarus ever drifted too far away, they'd do the same. This is a broader "security goal" for Russia, and they have both the power to do this with their military and exactly
fucking zero meaningful opposition when they commit these exact same acts. NATO is never going to war for a non-NATO member, so NATO now has to find ways to work with Putin when it comes to these countries.
It's a binary option, work with Putin and deal with what he wants because Russia has the power to force that conversation, or keep ignoring his demands and watch as he keeps escalating to keep countries in his orbit. Is it fair? Fuck no, but that's what happens when two nuclear super powers get into pissing matches and neither one will actually force a change to what is now the status quo. You're not going to sanction Russia out of this belief, and I severely doubt the Western world can muster enough sanctions to collapse the Russian economy with the way things are going (and again, Russia has built resiliency and has other partners that will continue to work with them). None of that is to say they should bow down to the Minsk-II agreement and make Donbas a puppet state with an effective veto in all Ukrainian matters, that in of itself is a red line Ukraine won't cross.
But the choices are some sort of diplomacy or war. There is no third magical option here that lets Ukrainians do what they want while also telling Russia to get bent. I think portraying Putin as such a conqueror (if he wanted, he could already have Belarus integrated into Russia and not a single soul could stop him) and not recognizing his goals in opposing NATO as broader Russian goals that will continue to provoke conflict for decades is a misread of the situation. Putin absolutely does not respect the sovereign states that came out of the Soviet Union and is an oligarch surrounded by yes men oligarchs looking to hold on to power and profit as much from the situation as possible. But I also think Putin would take significant NATO concessions and go home immediately too because that would be a major win for him and his local group of elites as far as Russia is concerned. I'm not saying that's the path to take, but just that I don't think "conquering Ukraine" is the end goal as much as it is the method by which he is trying to extract huge concessions or rather showing consequences he can create if he doesn't get his way.
apnews.com
