Putin's other motivation is clearly to fan the flames of great power Russian nationalism in an attempt to distract people from the problems at home. For many years, Putin was able to ride the wave of an oil boom, and his
approval ratings stood at around 70%. This increased to around 85% on the back of the jingoistic mood following the annexation of Crimea. However, his popularity has again begun to slide, falling to the mid-50s in 2020 – and even lower according to certain polls.
This is due to a number of factors. The coronavirus pandemic has
killed around 320,000 Russians, according to official figures. With the declining oil prices in the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Russian economy also got into difficulties. This meant that, from 2013 to 2020, real incomes fell by 11%. On top of this, inflation currently stands at over 8%, thereby pushing the living standards of working-class people even lower. This was the real reason for the protests that were sparked by the arrest of Navalny last year, and for the disappointing election results for Putin's United Russia.
Part of the motivation, therefore, is likely an attempt to rekindle this reactionary nationalist spirit once again in order to cut across the developing class anger in Russian society. But whipping up nationalism by threatening war is a completely different thing to actually engaging in a long and costly war, which would have the opposite effect. This is another reason why a full-scale military invasion is highly unlikely, as it would not be in Putin's interest.
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