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LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,086
Arkansas, USA
I don't think this is to deter Russia from invading Ukraine... It's to deter something happening to an eastern European NATO state and maybe to assist in evacuating US citizens from Ukraine.

Agreed, a massive show of support for NATO allies in Eastern Europe is the best response available right now. Biden should just go ahead and commit the 10x number he was referring to. There is no benefit in waiting to take that action.
 

sacrament

Banned
Dec 16, 2019
2,119
Agreed, a massive show of support for NATO allies in Eastern Europe is the best response available right now. Biden should just go ahead and commit the 10x number he was referring to. There is no benefit in waiting to take that action.

I don't know about that. There's a lot of priorities the US needs to focus on, and a huge land war entanglement in Europe probably ain't it. I'd like to see Europe's committee here first, and in large numbers, versus forcing the US to take such an overly extended position.

But yes, if Europe won't then I agree a sufficiently large number here is necessary.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,257
Seattle
I'm also in Kyiv. Don't have plans currently, just waiting to see what happens. American citizen with a residency here


Stay safe.. Make sure you have copies of y our passport and know where the embassy is! (I lived in Korea for about a year when things were getting SUPER dicey with NK) and was always told to make sure I knew where the embassy was and to go there in the event of craziness.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,257
Seattle
I don't know about that. There's a lot of priorities the US needs to focus on, and a huge land war entanglement in Europe probably ain't it. I'd like to see Europe's committee here first, and in large numbers, versus forcing the US to take such an overly extended position.

But yes, if Europe won't then I agree a sufficiently large number here is necessary.


The Problem is Europe isn't really 100% united on this front. We are a member of NATO, and if we have the means to help our allies, we should help them.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,257
Seattle
Russia acting the maggot out our way as well:

www.rte.ie

Russian exercise off coast 'not a threat' - Ambassador

Russia's Ambassador to Ireland has said that the controversy about the Russian military exercise that is due to take place in waters off the Irish coast next month is "hugely overblown".

Such assholes. They are always buzzing through our airspace with their transponders off as well. Causing mayhem.


wtf they doing out in that area?
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,257
Seattle
I live in Romania (neighbors with Ukraine) and there's been a lot of talk about the situation in Ukraine here, too.

What I know for sure is that a lot of countries in Eastern Europe have an intense hate for Russia - no one's gonna roll over and let them do whatever they want.


Whats the concern with Moldova/Transnistra there? There are rumblings might try to get to Moldova.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,086
Arkansas, USA
I don't know about that. There's a lot of priorities the US needs to focus on, and a huge land war entanglement in Europe probably ain't it. I'd like to see Europe's committee here first, and in large numbers, versus forcing the US to take such an overly extended position.

But yes, if Europe won't then I agree a sufficiently large number here is necessary.

A substantial commitment from Europe should be a given, this sort of situation is precisely why NATO exists. I don't think this calls for a one or the other deployment, both Europe AND the US should show every country that feels threatened by Russia that NATO remains a force to be reckoned with.
 

sacrament

Banned
Dec 16, 2019
2,119
The Problem is Europe isn't really 100% united on this front. We are a member of NATO, and if we have the means to help our allies, we should help them.

No doubt, but Ukraine isn't NATO. Poland, et al are, but it could be said they aren't actively being threatened. Putting US service folks on a boat and plane half way around the world when it's a 8 hr car ride for a lot of Europe seems a little upside down.

I really don't think we have an option to let Ukraine fail or be overrun - I'm pretty convinced if that happens it really will unravel a ton of international norms and expectations. So don't get me wrong, but having the US get embroiled 'yet again' and our treasure and blood to solve what's really a European problem is disheartening.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,086
Arkansas, USA
Breaking up NATO and changing the security order in Europe and getting back terrirotry that it lost when the USSR broke apart.

A lot of people don't realize it yet, but we're in the middle of an ideological struggle between that of authoritarian autocracy championed by Russia/China and liberal democracy championed by the EU/US and parts of Asia. If the US abandons Europe to Russia liberal democracy will have lost.

The forces championing autocracy from within the US are winning, so it may be a matter of time. But I'd prefer if democracy goes down, it doesn't do so without a struggle. We're not just fighting Europe's battles, we're fighting to keep democracy alive.
 

Vector

Member
Feb 28, 2018
6,657
Whats the concern with Moldova/Transnistra there? There are rumblings might try to get to Moldova.
Most Romanians don't actually worry too much about Moldova - its incredibly easy to obtain Romanian citizenship as a Moldovan and a lot of them already have it and use it actively to travel in the EU unrestricted; there also isn't much of an appetite for taking back Moldova as Transnistria and Gagauzia present massive administrative issues and would link us to Russia which is something no one wants.

Without Moldova, there's nothing linking Russia to Romania - there are no Russian minorities here and we are very far apart culturally (Romania is the only Eastern European country that uses the Latin alphabet and has a Romance language in a sea of Slavic people)

People are mixed on Ukraine though, on the one hand, no one wants to see war in the region, but on the other hand, Ukraine's foreign policy has been adversarial towards Romania and the Romanian minorities in Cernauti and Northern Bukovina have been treated badly by the government.

Our hatred for Russia is much stronger than our dislike for Ukraine though, naturally.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,086
Arkansas, USA
Delivering a mortal blow to the liberal, democratic order is Putin's ultimate goal. NATO members dithering over an appropriate response are playing right into his hands. Mobilize as if war with Russia is imminent, show the world that democracy can and will fight to defend itself from the whims of unaccountable autocrats. A show of force like that is the only way to deal with people like Putin, it's one of the few things they respect.
 

Bionicman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
703
User Banned (1 Week): Whataboutism, thread derailment over multiple post
A lot of people don't realize it yet, but we're in the middle of an ideological struggle between that of authoritarian autocracy championed by Russia/China and liberal democracy championed by the EU/US and parts of Asia. If the US abandons Europe to Russia liberal democracy will have lost.

The forces championing it from within the US are winning, so it may be a matter of time. But I'd prefer if democracy goes down, it doesn't do so without a struggle. We're not just fighting Europe's battles, we're fighting to keep democracy alive.

Bold claim here, the US and EU have more authoritarian dictators and outright evil regimes under their protection than the Russians and Chinese, right now US and European made bombs and missiles are massacring the Yemeni people for the sake of the expansionist imperialist policies of tyrant monarchs in the middle east, where's the liberal democracy in that? Is shielding Israel part of that ideology too? having open relations with the dictator of Egypt?

And let's not get into the history of the US supporting right wing fascists from Latin America, to Indonesia where hundreds of thousands of leftist activists, communists and socialists were massacred and the CIA installed right wing tyrants.

No, the way I see it, the world is reverting to pre 1917 level of Imperialist rivalries, and as usual the smaller nations pay the price.
 

myth

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Jul 15, 2021
283
Bold claim here, the US and EU have more authoritarian dictators and outright evil regimes under their protection than the Russians and Chinese, right now US and European made bombs and missiles are massacring the Yemeni people for the sake of the expansionist imperialist policies of tyrant monarchs in the middle east, where's the liberal democracy in that? Is shielding Israel part of that ideology too? having open relations with the dictator of Egypt?

And let's not get into the history of the US supporting right wing fascists from Latin America, to Indonesia where hundreds of thousands of leftist activists, communists and socialists were massacred and the CIA installed right wing tyrants.

No, the way I see it, the world is reverting to pre 1917 level of Imperialist rivalries, and as usual the smaller nations pay the price.
Call me again when Russia is more democratic than any EU country, until then this post means nothing
 

Bionicman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
703
Call me again when Russia is more democratic than any EU country, until then this post means nothing

And go tell the scores of Yemenis buried yesterday because the USA gave carte blanche to their dictator allies to do what they want that the US is the champion of democracy, go tell the families of all the Iraqis killed that they died at the hands of the champion of liberal democracy maybe that will mean something to them. Until then calling the US the champion of democracy means absolutely nothing.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,257
Seattle
Most Romanians don't actually worry too much about Moldova - its incredibly easy to obtain Romanian citizenship as a Moldovan and a lot of them already have it and use it actively to travel in the EU unrestricted; there also isn't much of an appetite for taking back Moldova as Transnistria and Gagauzia present massive administrative issues and would link us to Russia which is something no one wants.

Without Moldova, there's nothing linking Russia to Romania - there are no Russian minorities here and we are very far apart culturally (Romania is the only Eastern European country that uses the Latin alphabet and has a Romance language in a sea of Slavic people)

People are mixed on Ukraine though, on the one hand, no one wants to see war in the region, but on the other hand, Ukraine's foreign policy has been adversarial towards Romania and the Romanian minorities in Cernauti and Northern Bukovina have been treated badly by the government.

Our hatred for Russia is much stronger than our dislike for Ukraine though, naturally.


I appreciate your perspective. Stay safe!
 
OP
OP
Forerunner

Forerunner

Resetufologist
The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
14,641
warontherocks.com

Putin’s Wager in Russia’s Standoff with the West - War on the Rocks

A large war in Europe is likely in the coming weeks. The current security architecture of the continent, the future of NATO, and America’s role in shaping

Michael Kofman is director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA and a fellow at the Wilson Center, Kennan Institute.

A large war in Europe is likely in the coming weeks. The current security architecture of the continent, the future of NATO, and America's role in shaping security outcomes there are all at stake. Beyond Europe, this conflict would have profound implications for U.S. defense strategy, and may upset America's best-laid plans to focus on the eroding military balance with China. Ukraine, whose fate hangs in the balance, may be at the center of the crisis, but Moscow has a greater goal in mind: the revision of Europe's security order.

Even if force does not get Moscow any closer to the wide-reaching concessions that it seeks from the West, Russia's leadership likely judges that it will secure its influence in the country, deny Ukraine any hope of getting into NATO, and end NATO's defense cooperation with Ukraine.

Prediction is always a fraught business, but it seems plausible that Russian forces would seize Ukraine's eastern regions, as well as the southern port city of Odessa, and encircle Kyiv. The Russian goal would be regime change, perhaps via constitutional reform, and a settlement that would secure Russian influence over Ukraine. From a position of leverage, Russia would try to attain a U.S. commitment to give it a free hand in this part of eastern Europe. With Belarus firmly in Russia's orbit, Moscow is eyeing using force to change Ukraine's strategic orientation in an effort to create its own cordon against Western influence. An expanded invasion of Ukraine may not herald a prolonged occupation, but Russia appears prepared for that contingency. Russian force posture can enable a range of choices, but it is difficult to see how Moscow accomplishes any lasting political gains without having to resort to maximalist options.

This crisis is not about NATO or Ukraine, but about NATO and Ukraine. Russia wants Washington to agree to a revised European order in which Russia has a veto over security arrangements and in decisions over security outcomes. By closing NATO's open door, and halting defense cooperation with non-members, Washington would be acknowledging that Moscow's security considerations supersede the right of its neighbors to choose their strategic orientation, and that security in Europe must be negotiated with Moscow.

Perhaps Moscow is just fishing for what it can get, but the political demands do not align with the military side of the equation. Settling for minor modifications to the already existing strategic stability agenda would appear to be a political retreat after releasing such ostentatious demands. Persistent references to internal time constraints, demanding "answers urgently," suggest that Putin has been leaning towards using force all along. At Geneva, it became clear that Moscow views U.S. counteroffers for an expanded strategic stability agenda with much lower significance than its irreconcilable demands.

Putin may see diplomacy as a last-ditch effort to avert war, but Russia's posture suggests that he is leaning towards a unilateral solution. While some commentators may view this as a bluff, it hard to see how Putin imagined bluffing his way to a wholesale revision of Europe's security architecture.

There are two overlapping issues: The first is Ukraine, where Russia desires to have a firm say over its foreign policy as well as aspects of its internal governance. The second is to block further NATO expansion and to roll back Ukrainian defense cooperation with NATO members. Moscow perceives its strategy in Ukraine as having generally failed, with diplomacy over the Minsk ceasefire agreement at a deadlock, while Ukraine is increasingly treated as a de facto NATO member.

European capitals and Washington have backed Ukraine's position. Moscow is thus faced with a choice between accepting that Ukraine is slipping away, or escalation. Moscow judges that it has to act in order to prevent a fixed reorientation of the country and the destruction of the key pillars of its influence. Among Putin's grievances is the belief that Ukraine will become a platform for U.S. power projection along Russia's southwestern flank and he cannot tolerate this prospect (recalling Moscow's fears that led it to invade Afghanistan). Last fall he remarked "what if tomorrow there are missiles near Kharkov — what should we do then? We do not go there with our missiles — but missiles are being brought to our doorstep. Of course, we have a problem here." Whether genuine, or instrumental, Russia's leadership have often used this threat to link Ukraine to broader grievances on European security.

It is doubtful that the Russian leadership can back down without external and internal audience costs. Over the past month, the West has also been arming Ukraine in anticipation of a Russian attack, hardly a policy success for Moscow. If Putin backs down with nothing, the domestic and international perception will be that he was either bluffing or, even worse, was successfully deterred. Putin will end up with the worst of both worlds, seen as simultaneously aggressive and resistible. Also, while an authoritarian state may care less about domestic audience perceptions, the elites, or the so-called "selectorate," are another matter. Authoritarian leaders like Putin can find their ability to manage political coalitions diminished if elites perceive them as reckless, incompetent, and increasingly unfit to rule. Putin certainly has options, but this is not a contest in which he can afford to back down cost-free.

Total estimated end strength is therefore already north of 90,000 personnel. These figures do not include airpower, naval units, or additional logistical components that are likely to support this force. Russian-led forces in Ukraine's Donbas region might account for another 15,000 troops, but they have considerably lower combat effectiveness than Russian regulars.

The force gathered from other Russian regions largely consists of prepositioned equipment, but it is already sufficient for a military operation. There are indications that Russia has begun sending personnel. The current force is largely within the self-deployment range, which means they can move to the border in a matter of days once personnel arrive. Russia retains considerable force-generation potential and can surge units to the area on relatively short notice. Publicly available estimates suggest Moscow might gather a force of 90 to 100 battalion tactical groups, together with reserves, and auxiliary forces for a total of 150,000 to 175,000 troops. The Russian military is not yet in position for such a largescale operation, but it could have the requisite forces and elements placed in the coming weeks.

The increasingly likely scenario is that Moscow intends to install a pro-Russian government backed by its forces, which aligns with recently released claims by the United Kingdom. Alternatively, Russia may consider a partitioning of Ukraine. This would not be a total occupation of the country, but would include most of the country sans the Western regions. It would be terribly risky, and costly, but it would make Putin the Russian leader who restored much of historical Russia, and established a new buffer against NATO. A de facto occupation of most of Ukraine may be the only way that Russia can impose its will on the country if it cannot install a pro-Russian government. In launching an offensive, one of Moscow's riskiest decisions will be whether to stay largely east, or to venture west of the Dnieper river.

This crisis reveals a problem in U.S. strategy. European security remains much more unsettled than it appears. The most militarily powerful state on the continent does not see itself as a stakeholder in Europe's security architecture. There's little evidence that without the United States, European powers can deter Moscow or lead their way out of a major crisis. The European Union is nonexistent in the conversation, begging for relevance. Yet the United States is materially constrained, seeking to focus on the Indo-Pacific and redress a deteriorating military balance vis-à-vis China. Washington's dream of making the Russia relationship more predictable via a narrow strategic stability agenda appears to be dissipating. The United States will have to manage China and Russia, at the same time, for the foreseeable future. For U.S. strategy, it was never going to be China only, but it will prove exceedingly difficult to make it China mostly — not as long as Russia gets a vote.
 

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,519
Most Romanians don't actually worry too much about Moldova - its incredibly easy to obtain Romanian citizenship as a Moldovan and a lot of them already have it and use it actively to travel in the EU unrestricted; there also isn't much of an appetite for taking back Moldova as Transnistria and Gagauzia present massive administrative issues and would link us to Russia which is something no one wants.

Without Moldova, there's nothing linking Russia to Romania - there are no Russian minorities here and we are very far apart culturally (Romania is the only Eastern European country that uses the Latin alphabet and has a Romance language in a sea of Slavic people)

People are mixed on Ukraine though, on the one hand, no one wants to see war in the region, but on the other hand, Ukraine's foreign policy has been adversarial towards Romania and the Romanian minorities in Cernauti and Northern Bukovina have been treated badly by the government.

Our hatred for Russia is much stronger than our dislike for Ukraine though, naturally.

Thanks for your perspective 🙂
 

myth

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Jul 15, 2021
283
And go tell the scores of Yemenis buried yesterday because the USA gave carte blanche to their dictator allies to do what they want that the US is the champion of democracy, go tell the families of all the Iraqis killed that they died at the hands of the champion of liberal democracy maybe that will mean something to them. Until then calling the US the champion of democracy means absolutely nothing.
I dont think u know what democracy is but ok
 
May 26, 2018
24,024
warontherocks.com

Putin’s Wager in Russia’s Standoff with the West - War on the Rocks

A large war in Europe is likely in the coming weeks. The current security architecture of the continent, the future of NATO, and America’s role in shaping

Michael Kofman is director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA and a fellow at the Wilson Center, Kennan Institute.

sounds like this shit's happening no matter what and nothing can stop it, least according to this guy
 

Jroc

Banned
Jun 9, 2018
6,145
If a 150B decline is 9% of Russia's stock market then their stock market is worth about 1.65T which is less than MS, Apple, or Google.
Pretty crazy to consider how weak their economy already is and that they're willing to roll the dice on something that could make it that much weaker.

It also means they have less to lose though. The country is already used to having an undersized economy with weak growth. Sanctions are funny because if they don't cause immediate catastrophic damage they can allow a country to become more economically independent over time. Iran and Cuba have been sanctioned forever yet are still chugging along doing whatever they want.
 

Coyote Starrk

The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
53,081
Apparently it's an excuse to root for the imperialist nation of your choice and not feel bad about it.
who-ya-talkin-to-what-the-hell.gif
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,978
It also means they have less to lose though. The country is already used to having an undersized economy with weak growth. Sanctions are funny because if they don't cause immediate catastrophic damage they can allow a country to become more economically independent over time. Iran and Cuba have been sanctioned forever yet are still chugging along doing whatever they want.
It's more that sanctions probably only really work on somewhat democratic countries where the populace has a say. If the country being sanctioned is ruled by a dictator or authoritarian government that only cares about themselves and not the people why would sanctions work?

Worse, is that that's basically understood and the main desire of sanctions is to cause unrest in the population yet that population is usually ruled by governments more than willing to crack down and kill their own to keep power.
 

Culex

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
6,844
When they finally move those troops west, this will probably be the most consequential operative Russia has done since their invasion of Afghanistan.
 

Bionicman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
703

The point is simple, I'll make it clearer, I replied to a poster who said the world is facing an ideological struggle between liberal democracy championed by the US and authoritarianism championed by the Russians and Chinese, I pointed out that cannot be true since the US itself is known to support autocrats and dictators as well in order to pursue its own imperialist agenda as well as unilateral invasions such as Iraq and Panama. So the world isn't in an ideological struggle, but caught in imperialists rivalries with different imperialist nations from Russia to China to the US engaging in it similar to the world pre 1914.

I don't think it's possible to make it any clearer than that.
 

squeakywheel

Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,083
Man, this is not looking good. I never thought we'd see war-mongering like this again in my lifetime (at least in European soil). Imagine if China uses this distraction to go occupy Taiwan at the same time.
 

Greenpaint

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,891
Delivering a mortal blow to the liberal, democratic order is Putin's ultimate goal. NATO members dithering over an appropriate response are playing right into his hands. Mobilize as if war with Russia is imminent, show the world that democracy can and will fight to defend itself from the whims of unaccountable autocrats. A show of force like that is the only way to deal with people like Putin, it's one of the few things they respect.

You saaaay this, but to me this sounds like the classic meme of US "spreading democracy" through military action. But instead of "fighting the spread of communism", this time around it's "fighting the spread of autocracy". I'm not convinced this way of thinking is effective in accomplishing the goal it wants.

To me bringing economic prosperity is the most effective tool of winning the hearts & minds of a population. People get annoyed when economy suffers, people rejoice when economy is running well. And whoever is running the show when this happens gets the credit, no matter what their methodology of control is.
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,977
Man, this is not looking good. I never thought we'd see war-mongering like this again in my lifetime (at least in European soil). Imagine if China uses this distraction to go occupy Taiwan at the same time.
China is no where near that point, so no worries there. I mean even short term they have Olympics plus a rising Omicron problem, so the Government won't shift gears.

I'm still hoping for some kind of de-escalation, but that seems to be getting further and further from being the outcome.

At this point, unless something is given to Putin so he can call it a win (good luck there...), conflict is pretty likely. Backing down will completely neuter Putin for the rest of his time in power with how much Russia is throwing at this. I mean even if they did back down, Ukraine would just go full bore in the coming years in military spending which would make a future engagement harder for Russia (especially if Ukraine can modernize offensive rocket forces and SAM systems). Literally is now or never for Putin.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,086
Arkansas, USA
You saaaay this, but to me this sounds like the classic meme of US "spreading democracy" through military action. But instead of "fighting the spread of communism", this time around it's "fighting the spread of autocracy". I'm not convinced this way of thinking is effective in accomplishing the goal it wants.

To me bringing economic prosperity is the most effective tool of winning the hearts & minds of a population. People get annoyed when economy suffers, people rejoice when economy is running well. And whoever is running the show when this happens gets the credit, no matter what their methodology of control is.

The fact of the matter is that the West (whether you're referring to the UK, US, France, etc.) has never been a committed defender of democracy in non-white countries. But increasingly they aren't even defending democracy within their own borders. So there is an element of the chickens coming home to the roost at play here for sure. But I for one do NOT welcome the collapse of democracy as a means of self-governing; especially when the only other viable alternative right now is autocracy.
 

Deepwater

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,349
Bold claim here, the US and EU have more authoritarian dictators and outright evil regimes under their protection than the Russians and Chinese, right now US and European made bombs and missiles are massacring the Yemeni people for the sake of the expansionist imperialist policies of tyrant monarchs in the middle east, where's the liberal democracy in that? Is shielding Israel part of that ideology too? having open relations with the dictator of Egypt?

And let's not get into the history of the US supporting right wing fascists from Latin America, to Indonesia where hundreds of thousands of leftist activists, communists and socialists were massacred and the CIA installed right wing tyrants.

No, the way I see it, the world is reverting to pre 1917 level of Imperialist rivalries, and as usual the smaller nations pay the price.

How does this post get moderated for whataboutism when there's nothing factually untrue. There's a pinned thread about US ally and weapon arms customer fascist Israel on this very forum. The post they were responding to explicitly references US / Western liberal democracy hegemony. Is this wrong think?
 

BossAttack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
43,016
How does this post get moderated for whataboutism when there's nothing factually untrue. There's a pinned thread about US ally and weapon arms customer fascist Israel on this very forum. The post they were responding to explicitly references US / Western liberal democracy hegemony. Is this wrong think?

I have to agree. While the specific poster was doing some whataboutism beforehand, the cited post was specifically responding to the claim of the U.S. being a champion for democracy. It is only fair they are allowed to counter with examples proving it is not.

Honestly, both sides to the argument are a derailment from the current situation in Ukraine.
 

Coyote Starrk

The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
53,081
How does this post get moderated for whataboutism when there's nothing factually untrue. There's a pinned thread about US ally and weapon arms customer fascist Israel on this very forum. The post they were responding to explicitly references US / Western liberal democracy hegemony. Is this wrong think?
Just ask them in the feedback thread. Talking about modding decisions in threads will just get you bopped as well possibly.
 
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