MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts

[Dr. Monkey]

Welp, I have to leave for work but before I do I want to say, before anyone suggests it, I think a mass claim today is a very bad idea. I think we need to go back through votes and reads on Sawneeks, as suggested, and if we can pick out 1-2 very good targets, maybe them, but not everyone, just in case. Maybe next phase if we hit cult.

 

[Dr. Monkey]

and tbh Febe, I'm not super thrilled about that whole line either but I think it's necessary that we follow up with Sorian here, since he brought it to the table. At least to get clarity from him if nothing else.

 

[Sorian]

I specifically asked if I could be converted since I was already neutral and was told no. I then asked if scum could be turned (because lol why not) and he said he would not answer.

 

[Natiko]

how is time zone work pls halp no understanding :(

My heartfelt apologies for sleeping during night. I hate this game. Fucking surprise bastard shit, the clowns weren't enough it seems. Why are people voting? 12 left, six nights, reduce Sawneeks equals six cultists assuming OG cultist recruits every night. One free vote + all online is a hammer and the game is on scum to save with a cult NK.

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Sorry - I felt like you usually have shown up during the first part of the day but apologies if I'm wrong. Wasn't trying to question outside the game stuff.

There's really not much point in worrying about an uncapped cult team because if they weren't capped at a max number alive and dead we have already lost. They can force a non-cult lynch regardless today, and if it's not a no lynch we lose, if it is then we still have to hope scum hits them. Then the scenario repeats - and if they have any viable convert candidates left then we're super fucked regardless.

hmm. Long term how does this work again? Mislynch now, 6/5 but we know the cult candidates and one of them is something else. Scum hit the else, cult win regardless of recruitment as they control day lynch already. Scum hit a cultist, cult recruits a townie, next day is a 6/4 cult victory.

Unvote, please.

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What exactly do you mean by this?

So I wonder if Grizzly would answer Sorian in a PM (and thus maybe Febe) or if Sorian was just lying. I struggle to think Sorian thought we wouldn't check up on this so I don't know what's to be gained here. That's puzzling.

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Yeah, that's bizarre all around. Still wouldn't lynch Sorian until we see a couple more cult deaths at the earliest just because we still don't have an explanation for the two boats he created that would jive with him being cult (short of them being able to convert PRs which, again, means we have already lost).

 

[The Bear]

==== DAY 7 VOTES ====
Day Start

ezekelrage (1 votes)
fluxwavez - #6,407
blargonaut - #6,564 #6,609

kyanrute (1 votes)
dr. monkey - #6,520

ceecee (1 votes)
blargonaut - #6,609

natiko (1 votes)
ezekelrage - #6,346

rac (0 votes)
fantomas - #6,426 #6,438

fluxwavez (0 votes)
fantomas - #6,387 #6,426

sorian (0 votes)
dr. monkey - #6,339 #6,520
fantomas - #6,348 #6,359

lone_prodigy (0 votes)
fantomas - #6,438 #6,648

Post Counts:
fantomas: 54 fireblend: 50 dr. monkey: 43 blargonaut: 43 natiko: 42 ezekelrage: 33 sorian: 33 fluxwavez: 26 rac: 22 grizzly: 7 kyanrute: 5 lone_prodigy: 4 ceecee: 3 retromg: 1

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!

 

[Kyanrute]

Kyan's "let me talk math" doesn't strike courage into my heart here. It's true we are playing vote roulette, but it's also true cult is probably not ~1 to majority. With two votes on Zeke, though, that is something to consider. Though cult also can't afford to try to hammer and get caught if it doesn't work.

(though this is how we lost the champs game... scum tried AND FAILED and everyone said no lol let's lynch this townie anyway and not the scum who tried to hammer and couldn't make it fast enough no I'm not still salty why do you ask)

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Didn't you shade Zeke for downplaying the size? And now you shade me for considering the worst possibility?

 

[Kyanrute]

Sorry - I felt like you usually have shown up during the first part of the day but apologies if I'm wrong. Wasn't trying to question outside the game stuff.

There's really not much point in worrying about an uncapped cult team because if they weren't capped at a max number alive and dead we have already lost. They can force a non-cult lynch regardless today, and if it's not a no lynch we lose, if it is then we still have to hope scum hits them. Then the scenario repeats - and if they have any viable convert candidates left then we're super fucked regardless.

What exactly do you mean by this?

Click to shrink...

Is kk. The day start is midnight local time, I don't always have the eyes to stay up that late, more so if I need to get up early on the morning. Overall I think your feel is correct though, I am more often here than not.

Hmm. Fair enough, a single vote at any point with six online at the same time is enough for a force, in the technical kinda sense. Day end would be the most obvious time. But gg's if they are uncapped? Hmm. Why? Kill one today, meanies kill a second one during night and cult tries to recruit a meanie (no way meanie recruitment is allowed). Worst case scenario drops by two to 4 cult and 6 non-cult. Granted, this shit is only somewhat better than day before in this thought experiment but it is not gg. And if we assume that only the OG cultist can recruit and they die (and the power does not pass down, apparently that is possible too), no idea if that is the expected case here or not, the somewhat shit situation can be promoted to leaning-towards-shit situation.

By that I mean that should cult mass hammer in 6/6, they reveal themselves with the votes. Since the game is still going, they'd need +1 vote in the worst scenario - apart from one vote all the others would be cultists.

Overall I think it is possible to win this even in the worst realistic (realistic bastard game lol) situation. Difficult, yes. But possible. But the cult must die, in a fancy chain if possible.

 

[Kyanrute]

No, I've made my wincon clear. I'll lose if we reach the end without ever choosing pineapple pizza.

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Well then the best town can offer for your cooperation is a Pizza vote for the final phase. Your vote is rather valuable assuming what Sorian says is true and neutrals can't be recruited. Two problems still though: Sorian saying that Bear confirmed to him that he is immune to recruitment or was it that neutrals are immune to recruitment is fucking bizarre and two, good luck determining with cult in play what the night before the final phase is.

 

[Kyanrute]

Malus train is the best bet here I feel. Cult would protect their own and nobody apart from Flux moved away (and Flux's absence was only temporary) from that train on the whole day.

Numbers are easy to think about, picking the candidate less so sadface.

 

[Fireblend]

Well then the best town can offer for your cooperation is a Pizza vote for the final phase. Your vote is rather valuable assuming what Sorian says is true and neutrals can't be recruited. Two problems still though: Sorian saying that Bear confirmed to him that he is immune to recruitment or was it that neutrals are immune to recruitment is fucking bizarre and two, good luck determining with cult in play what the night before the final phase is.

Click to shrink...

Right, at this point I'm not sure what to do because my function in the game to everyone else is either being an extra body that prevents town from losing, or making me win to tilt the player balance into scum/cult majority (assuming that's the latter's objective).

 

[Sorian]

Right, at this point I'm not sure what to do because my function in the game to everyone else is either being an extra body that prevents town from losing, or making me win to tilt the player balance into scum/cult majority (assuming that's the latter's objective).

Click to shrink...

Just come sit in this chair over here, we're waiting for one group to eat the others.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Malus train is the best bet here I feel. Cult would protect their own and nobody apart from Flux moved away (and Flux's absence was only temporary) from that train on the whole day.

Numbers are easy to think about, picking the candidate less so sadface.

Click to shrink...

Not necessarily. I feel like the malus lynch was pretty much a foregone conclusion since the day began. Some cult could have felt safe voting for Sawneeks to distance themselves from her if she would be flipped in the future, while still ensuring a malus lynch.

No one expected what Fireblend did, and since it also showed that there's a cult at the last minute, it probably messed with their plans (assuming Fireblend isn't cult himself, of course).

 

[Fireblend]

Just come sit in this chair over here, we're waiting for one group to eat the others.

Click to shrink...

 

[Sorian]

https://i./i/pix/2015/12/30/01/2FACCE3600000578-3378329-image-a-23_1451440665252.jpg

 

[Blargonaut]

hi everybody my name is Blargonaut but you can call me Blarg, I'd just like to say that my theory about scum!CeeCee is the only one that explains Mafia's Night-kill targets since the beginning of the game barring those like Ket or absbro which seem purely opportunistic and reactionary. Thanks I'm happy to be here

 

[Dr. Monkey]

Didn't you shade Zeke for downplaying the size? And now you shade me for considering the worst possibility?

Click to shrink...

I shaded Zeke for downplaying the size for no reason. I'm commenting on your focus on this and nothing else. Why? Neither approach solves if it's the only thing someone does but oh look I stopped getting notifications again for reasons so there are other posts in the meantime I should read.

 

[Fireblend]

Actually that was lazy, let me put more effort into the game.

 

[Fireblend]

There, that's better.

 

[Kyanrute]

I shaded Zeke for downplaying the size for no reason. I'm commenting on your focus on this and nothing else. Why? Neither approach solves if it's the only thing someone does but oh look I stopped getting notifications again for reasons so there are other posts in the meantime I should read.

Click to shrink...

My problem here is that I don't have a fancy night chat brainstorm thoughts through with other people so yes, I will start the day with assessing the situation. The math and nothing else -shade does not work if you don't wait a bit to see if there is anything else.

 

[Kyanrute]

Not necessarily. I feel like the malus lynch was pretty much a foregone conclusion since the day began. Some cult could have felt safe voting for Sawneeks to distance themselves from her if she would be flipped in the future, while still ensuring a malus lynch.

No one expected what Fireblend did, and since it also showed that there's a cult at the last minute, it probably messed with their plans (assuming Fireblend isn't cult himself, of course).

Click to shrink...

It was rather close for a bit there at the end, once people had put their votes down it looked like 8-7, a single vote difference. malus wasn't absolutely dead until he was murdered in cold blood.

 

[Fanto]

Looking back on some Sawneeks stuff, just going to leave some notes here, don't really feel like linking but y'all can look back on the day too.

Since we don't know for sure when she was converted, I figured I'd just start on D6 since we know for sure that she was a Cultist by this point.

---------------------------------------

On D6, following the brief D5 in which we turboed Bae, Saw seems to be interested in Natiko and Brazil.

Is interacting positively with Rac and Fireblend at first and also lightly shading Monkey.

She seemed to be egging Zeke on to go for Brazil at times.

She had a couple of ISO posts on Bae, one of which she does mention thinking that she feels better about Natiko and Kyan because of how they interacted with Bae.

She says that she's not scum reading Zeke, and she would want Malus, Brazil, and possibly Rac.

Then in another of the ISO posts, she comes away with the conclusion that she feels good about Malus and Kyan, worse about Zeke, FB, CeeCee, and Blarg.

Votes for Fireblend.

Shades Brazil and Monkey some more, continues to argue with Natiko.

The next (real life) day, she has a big catch up post where she agrees with Malus concerns, unvotes for Fireblend, argues with Natiko and Brazil.

Defends herself from Brazil.

Seems conflicted about voting for Malus.

Continues arguing with Brazil, thinks he is Scum.

She did seem very quick to believe Fireblend and wanted to vote for Pineapple Pizza, but so did others too like myself, so I don't know what to make of that.

She doesn't really show up again until EoD when she is up against Malus for the lynch. Still thinks Brazil is Scum and tells us all about it.

She didn't vote for Malus until EoD when she found herself as the other train for the day.

Shades LP along with the rest of us for his rough look with his vote on her. Says she would vote there today too if others did.

One of the things that she keeps going on about to Brazil is how as Scum, she wouldn't put herself in the spotlight by trying to chain Fandorin after the Turmoil lynch. Makes me think she might have still been Town at that time, not yet converted.

Then of course, Malus gets "kitty bombed", Saw is then the vote leader, she realizes she is fucked, votes Brazil out of desperation, dies, and we see that she was a Cultist.

------------------------------------------------

My takeaway is that it makes me think that the Cult were probably stacked on that Malus vote yesterday, and with her running around trying to find anyone else but Malus to vote for, and kind of failing once Fireblend claimed and she believed it 100%, she didn't want to be a part of that Malus train, looking for reasons to vote elsewhere and reasons to think he is Town, until she had to be a part of it and finally put her vote down there.

Would like to hear others thoughts on all of this as well.

 

[Dr. Monkey]

There, that's better.

Click to shrink...

snort

My problem here is that I don't have a fancy night chat brainstorm thoughts through with other people so yes, I will start the day with assessing the situation. The math and nothing else -shade does not work if you don't wait a bit to see if there is anything else.

Click to shrink...

No, it doesn't, but that was what I had to work with at the time.

Gonna try some vote analysis.

 

[Sorian]

There, that's better.

Click to shrink...

Amazing

 

[Dr. Monkey]

My takeaway is that it makes me think that the Cult were probably stacked on that Malus vote yesterday, and with her running around trying to find anyone else but Malus to vote for, and kind of failing once Fireblend claimed and she believed it 100%, she didn't want to be a part of that Malus train, looking for reasons to vote elsewhere and reasons to think he is Town, until she had to be a part of it and finally put her vote down there.

Click to shrink...

My thought during the night, pre-Febe's claim, is that this is why Sawneeks voted Febe early for reasons and then backed off so quickly - that they were both cult. Febe's vig claim of course throws a wrench into that.

 

[Natiko]

Is kk. The day start is midnight local time, I don't always have the eyes to stay up that late, more so if I need to get up early on the morning. Overall I think your feel is correct though, I am more often here than not.

Hmm. Fair enough, a single vote at any point with six online at the same time is enough for a force, in the technical kinda sense. Day end would be the most obvious time. But gg's if they are uncapped? Hmm. Why? Kill one today, meanies kill a second one during night and cult tries to recruit a meanie (no way meanie recruitment is allowed). Worst case scenario drops by two to 4 cult and 6 non-cult. Granted, this shit is only somewhat better than day before in this thought experiment but it is not gg. And if we assume that only the OG cultist can recruit and they die (and the power does not pass down, apparently that is possible too), no idea if that is the expected case here or not, the somewhat shit situation can be promoted to leaning-towards-shit situation.

By that I mean that should cult mass hammer in 6/6, they reveal themselves with the votes. Since the game is still going, they'd need +1 vote in the worst scenario - apart from one vote all the others would be cultists.

Overall I think it is possible to win this even in the worst realistic (realistic bastard game lol) situation. Difficult, yes. But possible. But the cult must die, in a fancy chain if possible.

Click to shrink...

The problem with your math is you assume the neutrals will side with the non-cult which is almost certainly not happening with Sorian and may not happen with Fire.

Right, at this point I'm not sure what to do because my function in the game to everyone else is either being an extra body that prevents town from losing, or making me win to tilt the player balance into scum/cult majority (assuming that's the latter's objective).

Click to shrink...

Search your heart - you know who you must side with.

Spoiler

Don't you fuck us too :(

 

[Fanto]

Based just on looking at Saw's D6, I would say the most likely teammates for her are Zeke, Rac, and Kyanrute.

All of them were on the Malus train, and all of them were either getting Town reads from her or she was interacting with them positively.

That's probably who I would want to target within if we are trying to kill Cult members today.

 

[Natiko]

Looking back on some Sawneeks stuff, just going to leave some notes here, don't really feel like linking but y'all can look back on the day too.

Since we don't know for sure when she was converted, I figured I'd just start on D6 since we know for sure that she was a Cultist by this point.

---------------------------------------

On D6, following the brief D5 in which we turboed Bae, Saw seems to be interested in Natiko and Brazil.

Is interacting positively with Rac and Fireblend at first and also lightly shading Monkey.

She seemed to be egging Zeke on to go for Brazil at times.

She had a couple of ISO posts on Bae, one of which she does mention thinking that she feels better about Natiko and Kyan because of how they interacted with Bae.

She says that she's not scum reading Zeke, and she would want Malus, Brazil, and possibly Rac.

Then in another of the ISO posts, she comes away with the conclusion that she feels good about Malus and Kyan, worse about Zeke, FB, CeeCee, and Blarg.

Votes for Fireblend.

Shades Brazil and Monkey some more, continues to argue with Natiko.

The next (real life) day, she has a big catch up post where she agrees with Malus concerns, unvotes for Fireblend, argues with Natiko and Brazil.

Defends herself from Brazil.

Seems conflicted about voting for Malus.

Continues arguing with Brazil, thinks he is Scum.

She did seem very quick to believe Fireblend and wanted to vote for Pineapple Pizza, but so did others too like myself, so I don't know what to make of that.

She doesn't really show up again until EoD when she is up against Malus for the lynch. Still thinks Brazil is Scum and tells us all about it.

She didn't vote for Malus until EoD when she found herself as the other train for the day.

Shades LP along with the rest of us for his rough look with his vote on her. Says she would vote there today too if others did.

One of the things that she keeps going on about to Brazil is how as Scum, she wouldn't put herself in the spotlight by trying to chain Fandorin after the Turmoil lynch. Makes me think she might have still been Town at that time, not yet converted.

Then of course, Malus gets "kitty bombed", Saw is then the vote leader, she realizes she is fucked, votes Brazil out of desperation, dies, and we see that she was a Cultist.

------------------------------------------------

My takeaway is that it makes me think that the Cult were probably stacked on that Malus vote yesterday, and with her running around trying to find anyone else but Malus to vote for, and kind of failing once Fireblend claimed and she believed it 100%, she didn't want to be a part of that Malus train, looking for reasons to vote elsewhere and reasons to think he is Town, until she had to be a part of it and finally put her vote down there.

Would like to hear others thoughts on all of this as well.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, I still think a large chunk of cult were on the Malus lynch - it just makes the most sense given how close things were. She likely backs off the Fire claim at that point because they can do the math to realize if they lynch non-cult, Fire leaves, they come in today with probably 5-6 cult vs. 5 non-cult and win outright or win once a single stray vote is cast. The payoff for stacking to save cult is really high at that point.

 

[Sorian]

The problem with your math is you assume the neutrals will side with the non-cult which is almost certainly not happening with Sorian and may not happen with Fire.


Search your heart - you know who you must side with.

Spoiler

Don't you fuck us too :(

Click to shrink...

Hey, I gave you my read on the situation, that's something. I'm just loose with who I want to vote with. I'm not even going to pretend to know what you are at this point Natiko but start winning and I'll be your friend.

 

[Natiko]

Hey, I gave you my read on the situation, that's something. I'm just loose with who I want to vote with. I'm not even going to pretend to know what you are at this point Natiko but start winning and I'll be your friend.

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Oh I don't doubt that, it's just that we have literally no room for error against the cult right now and if they're at 5 we are one mistake away from you helping them doom us all so I'm a little bitter because I was one of the people okay with you living until closer to end game, but I HAD NO CLUE END GAME WAS NOW ._.

 

[Sorian]

 

[Dr. Monkey]

unvote
while thinking

 

[Fireblend]

Every game from now on should have a couple of confirmed neutrals just hanging around until the game is over.

 

[Kyanrute]

The problem with your math is you assume the neutrals will side with the non-cult which is almost certainly not happening with Sorian and may not happen with Fire.

Click to shrink...

And now I am confused again. Cult wincon normally, I thought, is majority +1 or whatever it takes to control day lynch and no killing roles. This is the wincon, because it implies that cult wins by killing everyone else, even the silly non-cult neutrals. Is this not the case?

 

[Sorian]

Every game from now on should have a couple of confirmed neutrals just hanging around until the game is over.

Click to shrink...

 

[Fanto]

Every game from now on should have a couple of confirmed neutrals just hanging around until the game is over.

Click to shrink...

Don't forget the one desperately confused Confirmed Town who has been wishing for death for 3 nights in a row but never dies.

 

[CeeCee]

Don't forget the one desperately confused Confirmed Town who has been wishing for death for 3 nights in a row but never dies.

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I've been waiting for death for much longer than you :P

 

[Sorian]

"Cults"

"Confirmed town"

.....

Sounds legit

 

[Natiko]

And now I am confused again. Cult wincon normally, I thought, is majority +1 or whatever it takes to control day lynch and no killing roles. This is the wincon, because it implies that cult wins by killing everyone else, even the silly non-cult neutrals. Is this not the case?

Click to shrink...

They don't always have the stipulation of no killing roles since theoretically it would at best always alternate and cult would still win eventually.

Regardless if Sorian and Fire are both telling the truth you have to consider that Sorian can supposedly win with them, and Sorian+cult+Fire may be enough to push PPM through or create a race to a tie at best which would cause Fire to leave the game and cult to be closer to majority. If Sorian sides with them, they can lynch non-cult and if they eliminate scum or scum miss cult the game will end. It's an unwinnable game state for non-cult/Sorian at that point though technically not majority so I don't know that the game would literally be called finished or not at that point. Essentially we may have to hit cult and scum NK cult or this game is effectively (if not literally) over.

 

[Fanto]

Also just a heads up: I'll be going quiet for a few hours here when the new episode of LiS 2 comes out in about half an hour I think.

However, if anyone has any other thoughts about my post on Saw's D6, or my likely suspects for her partners, let me know.

Will also be interested in any other posts looking back on Saw, some of the likely suspects, and/or the votes from the past days now that we know a Cult has been active.

"Cults"

"Confirmed town"

.....

Sounds legit

Click to shrink...

 

[Kyanrute]

They don't always have the stipulation of no killing roles since theoretically it would at best always alternate and cult would still win eventually.

Regardless if Sorian and Fire are both telling the truth you have to consider that Sorian can supposedly win with them, and Sorian+cult+Fire may be enough to push PPM through or create a race to a tie at best which would cause Fire to leave the game and cult to be closer to majority. If Sorian sides with them, they can lynch non-cult and if they eliminate scum or scum miss cult the game will end. It's an unwinnable game state for non-cult/Sorian at that point though technically not majority so I don't know that the game would literally be called finished or not at that point. Essentially we may have to hit cult and scum NK cult or this game is effectively (if not literally) over.

Click to shrink...

I kinda wanna delve deeper here to have a discussion about mechanics relating to wincons and what constitutes as a game end state but I'll leave that for the post-game. The conclusion I agree about, kill cult we must.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Fanto looking at D6 (and especially Saw's) is a good idea. After Bae's death, scum is running on fumes, so the cult could turn around and start picking off unconverted town; as long as they stayed hidden, scum would go down the list of Confirmed Town(TM) while "town" continued to scum hunt.

Could also explain why Fando and malus were pushed for days; they were easy mislynches so cult would never have to touch them.

The vote today should really boil down to cult vs. not-cult:

Not cult
Fanto
Sorian
Fireblend
Flux
Ceecee
LP

Cult
Zeke
Blarg
rac
Natiko
Kyan
Monkey

Lynch someone in the Cult category and hope that scum shoots one of the others tonight. Then it'll be 6-4 and we'll have some breathing room.

 

[Natiko]

I kinda wanna delve deeper here to have a discussion about mechanics relating to wincons and what constitutes as a game end state but I'll leave that for the post-game. The conclusion I agree about, kill cult we must.

Click to shrink...

Well we can lynch you now and you can go discuss it with Grizzly in spec chat to try and persuade him to the cause of your cultist brethren if you want.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Natiko pushed Sawneeks pretty consistently for days, yet Saw never put a vote on Natiko. Even on her way out, she voted for Brazil (town). Maybe Natiko is unconverted, which means PR or scum.

 

[Kyanrute]

Well we can lynch you now and you can go discuss it with Grizzly in spec chat to try and persuade him to the cause of your cultist brethren if you want.

Click to shrink...

huehue xd dont tempt me to recruit you next night

Food and Saw D6 read next. Something like that.

 

[rac]

Could also explain why Fando and malus were pushed for days; they were easy mislynches so cult would never have to touch them.

The vote today should really boil down to cult vs. not-cult:

Not cult
LP

Lynch someone in the Cult category and hope that scum shoots one of the others tonight. Then it'll be 6-4 and we'll have some breathing room.

Click to shrink...

is everyone supposed to forget the days you were on malus

 

[rac]

actually

vote: lone_prodigy

 

[Sorian]

is everyone supposed to forget the days you were on malus

Click to shrink...

I think he's just letting you know that he's the last scum and everyone needs to come together to combat the greater threat. It's a good third act twist.

 

[Dr. Monkey]

I hate color-coding from the vote tool because strikethroughs don't carry over so I'm spreadsheeting but I don't know if it's going to give us any more info on potential cult members until or unless we find one more, since we don't know when anyone was converted.

I'd order Zeke = Kyan > rac right now myself, maybe leaning slightly more toward Zeke. Less concerned with Blarg (vote switching until end of day), Natiko (hard on Sneeks), or myself because myself, but others' mileage may vary on these three.

I think I might actually look back through Zubz. I had that thought last night, too.

 

[Dr. Monkey]

Lynch someone in the Cult category and hope that scum shoots one of the others tonight. Then it'll be 6-4 and we'll have some breathing room.

Click to shrink...

please get on that for us tonight, lone_scum

 

[Dr. Monkey]

actually

vote: lone_prodigy

Click to shrink...

Are you saying he's cult?