thanks fran <3
What do you mean by that last line?
rac, please. give me something here. there's even votes to look at.
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MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
As I said earlier, I'm pretty sure Faddy went into the claim knowing there would be a counterclaim and he would get lynched. The Fandorin vote (plus his post directly before it) seems to be the turning point where he went from trying to survive to going all in on his bomb role. He knew he would flip scum soon, so maybe he put a vote on a scum buddy to protect them. But that's just a WIFOM guess, could just as well be he put it on Fando to incriminate him, but then he could have just left the vote on me.
Yeah I hadn't really thought about the graph itself when I posted my vote. I just thought it would be funny because the graph doesn't even line up with it.
It was only "later" when I actually thought about the implications of the graph.
For anyone who's interested enough to look through it, here's the malus case again, summarized:
D1:
- Faddy defended malus against Fantomas (Fand's post, #968, #970).
- Faddy tried to get Fran and Chuggernaut to move on from the discussion about Chuggernaut's scumread of malus (Fand's post, #1016).
- Faddy claims that malus would be his second most likely target for a kill, behind Geno but ahead of Fran, despite not having giving a single reason for suspecting him (Fand's post, #1042).
- Many pages later, in his next mention of malus, Faddy posts another kill list, and malus remains his second most likely target for a kill, once again sandwiched between two townies (Fand's post, #1559).
- Finally, while Geno and Fran remain in his sights, malus mysteriously vanishes from Faddy's list of suspicions, with no reasoning given. All three were in Stan's kill list (Fand's post, #1602)
Fand's summary:
D2:
- malus makes the same low-hanging fruit townread of KetKat that turmoil also did (#2652).
- I call him out for it. He doesn't address me (#2658).
- malus votes for Pirate Bae using an unexplained graph as reasoning. This vote is locked-in and cannot be changed (#2712).
- In his very next post, malus backpedals on his vote for Pirate Bae (#2714).
- I call him out for it (as do a few others, like Kyan and Febe). He doesn't address me (#2720).
- I call malus out a third time, this time setting locking my vote down on him (#2748).
- As soon as the vote comes in, Faddy once again jumps in to defend malus, this time saying that he was "probably memeing" when he locked his vote in for the phase using the graph as reasoning (#2752).
- During the mess at EoD, malus comes back in and finally addresses me and those asking for an explanation for the graph for the first time (#2820).
- malus ends that post by saying that "this whole thing" [his explanation] matters, and that people should kill Flux (Fantomas' post, #2820).
- After all the details come in, malus' final contribution that day is saying "just don't let it end on a draw or on Pirate Bae" (#2843).
D3:
- malus, who says he'd been suspicious of rac since D1, gestures to complain about rac's vote on him, but votes against Fandorin instead based on secondhand arguments (#3527).
- malus' vote on Fandorin leaves Fandorin with 3 votes, behind Faddy's 4 votes. Sorian comes in right after that with the next vote, making Fandorin tied with Faddy in the lead (#3546).
- I call him out for it (#3558, #3585). He initially engages me, but then drops off after that last post, and doesn't address me any further.
- rac calls out the progression of malus' read on Flux during D2 (#3601), and malus' defense is "I spent a whole day not doing much in general" (#3606).
- malus then disappears for the rest of D3, missing out on all of the claims.
- malus shows up in time to safely cast the 14th vote on Faddy after his bomb had already exploded on Chuggernaut (#3854).
D1:
- Faddy defended malus against Fantomas (Fand's post, #968, #970).
- Faddy tried to get Fran and Chuggernaut to move on from the discussion about Chuggernaut's scumread of malus (Fand's post, #1016).
- Faddy claims that malus would be his second most likely target for a kill, behind Geno but ahead of Fran, despite not having giving a single reason for suspecting him (Fand's post, #1042).
- Many pages later, in his next mention of malus, Faddy posts another kill list, and malus remains his second most likely target for a kill, once again sandwiched between two townies (Fand's post, #1559).
- Finally, while Geno and Fran remain in his sights, malus mysteriously vanishes from Faddy's list of suspicions, with no reasoning given. All three were in Stan's kill list (Fand's post, #1602)
Fand's summary:
D2:
- malus makes the same low-hanging fruit townread of KetKat that turmoil also did (#2652).
- I call him out for it. He doesn't address me (#2658).
- malus votes for Pirate Bae using an unexplained graph as reasoning. This vote is locked-in and cannot be changed (#2712).
- In his very next post, malus backpedals on his vote for Pirate Bae (#2714).
- I call him out for it (as do a few others, like Kyan and Febe). He doesn't address me (#2720).
- I call malus out a third time, this time setting locking my vote down on him (#2748).
- As soon as the vote comes in, Faddy once again jumps in to defend malus, this time saying that he was "probably memeing" when he locked his vote in for the phase using the graph as reasoning (#2752).
- During the mess at EoD, malus comes back in and finally addresses me and those asking for an explanation for the graph for the first time (#2820).
- malus ends that post by saying that "this whole thing" [his explanation] matters, and that people should kill Flux (Fantomas' post, #2820).
- After all the details come in, malus' final contribution that day is saying "just don't let it end on a draw or on Pirate Bae" (#2843).
D3:
- malus, who says he'd been suspicious of rac since D1, gestures to complain about rac's vote on him, but votes against Fandorin instead based on secondhand arguments (#3527).
- malus' vote on Fandorin leaves Fandorin with 3 votes, behind Faddy's 4 votes. Sorian comes in right after that with the next vote, making Fandorin tied with Faddy in the lead (#3546).
- I call him out for it (#3558, #3585). He initially engages me, but then drops off after that last post, and doesn't address me any further.
- rac calls out the progression of malus' read on Flux during D2 (#3601), and malus' defense is "I spent a whole day not doing much in general" (#3606).
- malus then disappears for the rest of D3, missing out on all of the claims.
- malus shows up in time to safely cast the 14th vote on Faddy after his bomb had already exploded on Chuggernaut (#3854).
I legit do no see any agenda or anything in malus beyond someone just trying to figure out the best way to play. Links from Faddy to him may or may not mean anything. Links from others to Faddy are more important.
But I'm supposed to be taking a break. I have a monster headache due to shit weather I think.
But I'm supposed to be taking a break. I have a monster headache due to shit weather I think.
I haven't looked back through Natiko at all since the last phase, but his D2 and D3 votes combined seem maybe too perfect. He's shown to be defensive of his D2 vote:
And I'm feeling better about Sawneeks today, which makes him seem a bit worse due to what I said here:
I'll go live a little, now. Bye.
Correct. I missed that up. Fandorin's post has the correct wording.
OP
OP
==== DAY 4 VOTES ====
Day Start
fandorin (4 votes)
fluxwavez - #3,902 #3,963
sorian - #3,907
fantomas - #3,912 #3,992
sawneeks - #3,913
fluxwavez - #3,965 #3,999
fantomas - #4,360
pirate bae - #4,391
malus (4 votes)
rac - #3,957 #4,117
fandorin - #4,159
rac - #4,212
brazil - #4,231
lone_prodigy - #4,378
brazil (3 votes)
ezekelrage - #4,218 #4,254
fluxwavez - #4,220
ezekelrage - #4,261
fran - #4,373
sawneeks (1 votes)
natiko - #3,921
sorian (1 votes)
blargonaut - #4,020
ezekelrage - #4,188 #4,218
rac (0 votes)
rac - #4,117 #4,212
ezekelrage (0 votes)
brazil - #3,896 #3,991
fluxwavez (0 votes)
brazil - #3,991 #4,231
fantomas - #3,992 #4,141
ceecee (0 votes)
ezekelrage - #3,893 #4,188
Post Counts:
ezekelrage: 59 sorian: 59 brazil: 58 fluxwavez: 49 fantomas: 48 dr. monkey: 48 fandorin: 38 fran: 31 rac: 24 natiko: 19 blargonaut: 18 sawneeks: 13 kyanrute: 10 pirate bae: 10 grizzly: 9 malus: 9 fireblend: 6 lone_prodigy: 6 ceecee: 2 absolutbro: 2
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
Day Start
fandorin (4 votes)
sorian - #3,907
sawneeks - #3,913
fantomas - #4,360
pirate bae - #4,391
malus (4 votes)
fandorin - #4,159
rac - #4,212
brazil - #4,231
lone_prodigy - #4,378
brazil (3 votes)
fluxwavez - #4,220
ezekelrage - #4,261
fran - #4,373
sawneeks (1 votes)
natiko - #3,921
sorian (1 votes)
blargonaut - #4,020
rac (0 votes)
ezekelrage (0 votes)
fluxwavez (0 votes)
ceecee (0 votes)
Post Counts:
ezekelrage: 59 sorian: 59 brazil: 58 fluxwavez: 49 fantomas: 48 dr. monkey: 48 fandorin: 38 fran: 31 rac: 24 natiko: 19 blargonaut: 18 sawneeks: 13 kyanrute: 10 pirate bae: 10 grizzly: 9 malus: 9 fireblend: 6 lone_prodigy: 6 ceecee: 2 absolutbro: 2
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
You read above, Brazil. And I really don't care what Faddy said or did. Faddy was inconsistent AND strategic with his play and if I have any reason to scumread you at all this game it's because you want us to take that on it's face. We don't know what Faddy was doing that was calculated or legit or defending. We don't. And if we flip malus and he's town it's a big OOPS WELP and then what?
Argh, fine.
Think ignoring the vote is a bad choice but I get the reasoning behind it. :/
I don't like this post much. Everything that Faddy did could be analized. His game was far from good this time (just look at his D2) so just saying that it could be calculated and just leave it at that is a bad move.
And I find it really hard to believe that I need to explain this to Town!Monkey. This is so far off from your usual town game that it's giving me a really big red flag.
You're completely fine just going along with people who are suspecting Fandorin because of what Faddy said or did about him, but somehow you "don't care" about MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF FLIPPED SCUM DEFENDING MALUS AND WAFFLING AROUND HIS READS OF MALUS.
Either way, at least half of the bulletpoints in the summary above have nothing to do with Faddy.
I'd like to see you address each one of those points individually and say "I don't care about this" in specific terms.
Your reason to scumread me is that I'm BRINGING UP things I believe are scummy. I don't want you to take that on its face. I want you to at the very least consider it, which is a really low barrier that some of you are, for some bizarre reason, managing to not be able to cross.
Yeah, we don't. So let's completely disregard it and never think about it, even though there's a really simple way to find out whether he was doing things in a calculated way or not.
And then what, what? Then a new day phase starts and we go from there. Literally what happens after literally every single mislynch that has ever happened in the history of mafia worldwide.
If we flip Fandorin and he's town, it's a big OOPS WELP and then what, Monkey? And then what?
I literally can't believe how some of you are playing in this game. This is literally unbelievable.
Faddy told me he could prove he was town and I figured he was hoping to avoid doing so unless no other options remained.
It doesn't make sense to me, like I said i don't see why he cared to bait a claim if they hadn't been blocked yet and they had access to a strong kill. That said though, we don't know those two things are true and even past that, it's not like Faddy has ever played in a way that I understand so maybe he was more set on using his ahikity than I would have been. It's the one thing I can't explain but everything else lines up, if reads are going to fall a part because you can't figure out the specific nuance of someone's play then we'd get no where, I have to make a slight leap in the logic somewhere.
The kill list literally had no influence on the outcome of the day. Why would Faddy suddenly be cautious to list a scum buddy, when it would have had absolutely no consequences? Besides he also didn't give any reasoning why all his other kill targets vanished (of which Fandorin was one).
You're just ignoring this post:
which came quite soon after I posted the graph. It explains that the graph was not the reason why I voted for Pirate Bae. Also as said in my previous post, I mostly posted the graph because I found it funny and only started thinking about it after I had posted it. You were pretty convinced we should kill Flux as well, so I'm not sure why you bring that up here and I said my explanation doesn't matter, because of the claims by Pirate Bae and Turmoil.
Just because I question why someone votes for me, doesn't mean I have to instantly scum read them. I knew my play on D2 wasn't particularly good, so I didn't blame anyone that wanted to vote me D3, but rac didn't even leave an explanation, hence my surprise.
Alright, thanks. Those bullet points work, but there's something missing that I was feeling from both turmoil and Faddy. A certain vibe I'm not getting from malus. There's an underlying lack of coordination from malus; same reason I defended KetKat. The connections between Faddy and malus are tenuous. It's weird how Faddy specifically just dropped malus from the 3 he wanted to kill off, but that can also be driven by other factors. The defense is interesting, but it's not like malus is the only person that he defended. malus' EoD3 is pretty bad.
I'll say that it has made me less certain about today's lynch, though. It's a neat story to get the heat off of Fandorin.
Vote: malus
Also, I take back what I said before. Even if malus flipped scum, my suspicion of Brazil and Fandorin would remain. You guys are playing weird this game. It's not gonna pay off.
Do you think all three of the lynch candidates are scum? That would be a bit much.
I don't know. It's bizarre, and things are less clear to me now than I thought they were at the start of this phase. But I think I'm at the point where I 100% want Fandorin and/or Brazil lynched either today, or tomorrow.
What's for certain, though, is that all 3 are linked together in all of this. So, really, flipping one will tell us a lot. I don't agree at all with Brazil saying that we just "move on" if malus flips town, or that Brazil/Fandorin flipping won't tell us anything. That's nonsense. Whatever happens between these 3, we'll have a lot to gain.
Malus was the next closest wagon in votes to him at the time and his alignment is not known?
Are you referring to the first part, or the latter?
Latter, I'm also making an assumption you remember what I'm talking about that you did.
Yep, just wanted to be sure.
If I recall, your comment was about how I was basically putting on a performance when I was putting out a scum read on Faddy. I would say that yes, that post from Brazil does give me similar vibes here.
I want to flip Brazil now first, this bit me in the ass last time and I still think they're both scum but I'd rather go with the safer pick
VOTE: Brazil
VOTE: Brazil
Though want I really wanted to see was how Brazil was going to squirm if Fando flipped scum but I'll put the cockiness away for a minute
Considering Faddy was scum and didn't offer a single read on you during the entire D1, but still had you as a apparent scum read, I'm very inclined to believe that he was adding filler to his kill list.
He saw you were a bit of a topic at D1 and decided to name drop you in there.
Maybe he expected to bring that out later if you flipped, or maybe he could come back and set up a bus. Either way he offered no explanation for that read on you, while he at least engaged at some level with the remaining players on the list to justify them being on it.
The first list he puts out is considering the Sophia debacle and the reactions of those players to her, ranking from scummiest to towniest. You're there at second place, while I'm last and he adds that I've "been townie".
On the second list, which has most of the same names and order, you're still at second place.
Later near EoD he conveniently skips your name and debates between Geno and Fran, two townies, despite the fact that on the last two lists you were above Fran. The fact that you're the odd one out and suddenly vanished from his mind at the end is really telling.
If you feel this way regarding faddy, why did you use faddy to scumread fando? Or speculate faddy's intentions at all?
How would Fran know whether the kill list would or would not have influence on the outcome of the day before the outcome of the day happened?
Both of Faddy's kill lists were framed as "from most suspect to least suspect". A townie was #1, you were #2, another townie was #3. The others listed there were below #3. When it came down to take a stand, he listed the two townies, but you disappeared.
And, once again, he hadn't given a reasoning for scumreading you, and he didn't give a reasoning for dropping you off his list.
You posted a graph because you found it funny as the reasoning behind your D2 vote, and only started thinking about it after you locked in the vote on Pirate Bae.
---
This is you saying you scumread rac at the end of D1 when I asked you which were your biggest scumreads:
This is you saying you scumread rac on early D3, a little before that whole conversation happened:
Which is it? Did you scumread him or not?
Why didn't you vote for rac when he cast that super weird vote for you, and instead went for Fandorin to help tie the vote against Faddy?
Yo, pretty zzz right now but I wanna get something done today so I don't have to do it all on the day of the lynch as usual. I'll think of malus at least. Maybe. Hopefully.
Sawneeks Day end huh. Honestly don't have the brains right to go deep on this now but reading your post you are looking way too much on what Faddy did and said. Basic WIFOM, do not read scum who are at that position. Who knows why he did what he did, why he read things like he did. Could be the lols, could be that he was serious, could be that he was trying to control things to some specific path.
The point is we have no clue. Much more relevant to look at what others did. Two cents.
Sawneeks Day end huh. Honestly don't have the brains right to go deep on this now but reading your post you are looking way too much on what Faddy did and said. Basic WIFOM, do not read scum who are at that position. Who knows why he did what he did, why he read things like he did. Could be the lols, could be that he was serious, could be that he was trying to control things to some specific path.
The point is we have no clue. Much more relevant to look at what others did. Two cents.
Why is it telling? If he wanted to bring it up later he could have just kept me on the list and it would have been even more convincing. In the end neither Geno or Fran were lynched that day, so I doubt it would have mattered had he kept me on the list.
And why did he even put you on his kill list when he thinks you are town? That seems much more like filler to me.
Don't get pocketed, Fantomas. Sorian isn't even pretending to be engaging in scumhunting anymore. Look at how he distances himself from Monkey's nuclear take and then flips right back at me without ever acknowledging anything regarding my malus post, but somehow remembers to target you directly with this parallel to a previous game.
I'm off for real now. Y'all need Jesus.
So if this were the case, we'd be entertaining the idea that this was a coordinated plan from them to come in Town reading each other hard and then get Malus flipped and insist they had nothing to do with it the next day? That would be quite the move.
Your defense of Fando has already been problematic. The fact that you want to pretend you are pushing such a strong logical argument but then you run right back over to pathos whenever it's convenient is the tell here. But sure, "yikes"
I've openly admitted that if malus doesn't flip scum I know one of us is flipping tomorrow. There's no fighting it.
Oh I'm not. I'm entertaining everyone's ideas. Me and Fran are cleared Town. Everyone else? I'm here to engage and evaluate.
I'm not saying it can't. It can. But we're guessing and looking for other clues to line it all up while it's a huge part of Brazil's read on malus, and he ignores other ties TO Faddy. He has blinders on or he's covering. His whole BUT I AM SURE!! thing is part of that.
Monkey's take isn't going anywhere, there's no reason to get distracted off of the bullshit we have on our plate to follow a side show (that you clearly want us to follow)
It's already quite the move that Brazil is running interference so hard. Fandorin has been more muted but is also going in pretty hard on it i day compared to yesterday. They're down two scum in three days in a 27 player game where only one kill has happened a night, "quite the move" is the only winning gameplan.