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MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts

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Blargonaut

Blargonaut

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,270
Dr. Monkey said:
*snip*

Blarg, Febe would equally be a bussing fool and Flux thought he was cult. Any thoughts there?
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Usually in the case of this kind of possible bluff there'd only be one way to be sure, but by way of Febe's claim we apparently have two

Barring PRs looking into Febe, of course. Which would be more usual ways than the one usual way.

Personally, I would continue to not give Febe what he wants and keep him around until endgame. The longer he suffers the more I'll be able to gauge how genuine his desperation is.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,270
But Mafia, it would actually behoove you to shoot Fireblend Tonight; we as Town will undoubtedly agree from this point on to not send him to PPM.

I'm betting you're gonna shoot Dr. Monkey or Fantomas ASAP, which would be logical. But keeping Febe around as a potential mislynch is foolish when we can so easily verify him via a channel that avoids the regularly-scheduled killing.

As we continue to deny Febe, if he's telling the truth as a stand-alone non-Cult Neutral then he will most certainly not be a non-contributor because he needs to curry favour according to his Win condition. He will continue to do everything in his power to help us scum-hunt because he needs those Townie points to proceed. Hence he's one of the most trustworthy players in the game right now, since he's volunteered his weakness he can be easily manipulated against you.

Every Day that Febe lives is a Day you allow this alliance to strengthen. Just saying.
 
Fireblend

Fireblend

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,454
Costa Rica
The truth is scum should know better than the rest of the players that I've been telling the truth so far. From town's perspective I might still be scum, I guess, but for scum there shouldn't be a shadow of a doubt of my honesty.

That also means they know they can make me exit by voting for PAP, they don't have to waste a NK on me.

On the other hand, if town scumreads me it can check my wincon anytime. Making me win and exit the game is favorable for everyone, remove a variable and you'll be closer to the truth.
 
Fanto

Fanto

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Oct 25, 2017
11,863
Ok, if I am currently assuming there is only 1 Cult, 1 Neutral, and 2 Scum left, I think my current reads are basically this:

Town:
Monkey
Natiko
Blargonaut
Rac

Neutral Pizza:
Fireblend

Cult:
Kyanrute

Scum:
Lone_Prodigy
CeeCee

If there are instead 2 Cult and 2 Scum left, throw CeeCee in with the Cult, and either Fireblend is lying and is Scum or one of my Town Reads is Scum.

Otherwise I'm just really wrong on two or more of my Town reads and y'all fooled me good this game, especially during this Cult Hunt phase. Or Fireblend is lying. One of the two.

I swear to god though, if LP and CeeCee are both Town and Monkey and Natiko are both not, then I don't know how to play this game.

My recommended course of action would be taking out the top OG Cultist suspect, which is, in my eyes, Kyanrute.

I am open to any and all other suggestions for who else could be an OG Cultist though if people want to make the case.

From there, I think we'll need to re-evaluate depending on today's second flip and if they were Cult, whether or not we receive confirmation that they were the last Cult member. I really hope we do receive that confirmation when they are all gone for good, because otherwise this end game is going to be even more rough than it currently is.

There is still the chance that Cult has another recruit shot too, so that is a scary thought as well.

--------------------------------------------

Ok, going to bed here pretty soon now. I'll be busy tomorrow for a bit in the early afternoon (CST) but I definitely should be back at least an hour before EoD, probably sooner than that and I'm just overestimating. Either way, I'll be here in the morning to discuss, so plenty of time to talk and for me to get a vote down before I have to disappear for a bit.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
I think I'm pretty firmly set on lynching either CeeCee or kyan. I still think CeeCee makes sense to be targeted for a convert, but at the same time it's basically a foregone conclusion that CeeCee can't be the original cultist remaining, so maybe kyan is the better choice of the two.

Fireblend said:
The truth is scum should know better than the rest of the players that I've been telling the truth so far. From town's perspective I might still be scum, I guess, but for scum there shouldn't be a shadow of a doubt of my honesty.

That also means they know they can make me exit by voting for PAP, they don't have to waste a NK on me.

On the other hand, if town scumreads me it can check my wincon anytime. Making me win and exit the game is favorable for everyone, remove a variable and you'll be closer to the truth.
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The main benefit I see to having you exit the game is it verifies you aren't lying and removes a player that theoretically can be converted. Then of course if you survive you'll basically be auto lynched. The biggest fear is we get into a future day phase and people make a push for you without verifying your claim and we get bamboozled into lynching a benign neutral. It won't take many stray votes to throw the game once we're in the next couple day phases.
 
OP
OP
The Bear

The Bear

Forest Animal
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
4,194
Still Alive:
1. [m] Fantomas - CST
4. [m] Blargonaut - GMT-3
10. [m] Fireblend - GMT-6
13. [m] Lone_Prodigy
14. [m] rac - GMT-5
15. [m] Natiko - GMT-5
20. [m] Kyanrute - UTC+2
21. [f] Dr. Monkey - GMT-5
22. [m] CeeCee - GMT
 
Last edited:
CeeCee

CeeCee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,118
Dr. Monkey said:
Please, reads, thoughts, anything?

I think I'm gonna wait for rac and Kyan to check in. I tried to work on my fellowship essay but I'm pretty sure I'm gonna have to scrap half of what I wrote so I'm just going to bed.
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I'm torn between LP as mastermind scum lying low and managing to avoid any pressure all game, and LP being LP as town. Think he might be worth a pop though.

I have town reads on you, Nat, and rac, and I have a horrible feeling that one of those is wrong.
 
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The Bear

The Bear

Forest Animal
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
4,194
w9thx0pzxx
 
Kyanrute

Kyanrute

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,629
Tomato
PR recruitment? That sucks but there is the malus vote, what I did not want to touch because I am in it. Both Flux and Sorian defended Neeks so who is to say there wasn't more? Me v rac for OG cultist, add Cee there for a recruited one.

Something like that.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,270
hello again

Grizzly said:
Secret N5 Vote:

Star Wars (5)
absolutbro
EzekelRAGE
Blargonaut
malus
Dr. Monkey

Bar 2 (4)
Fantomas
Sorian
FluxWaveZ
Sawneeks

NX (3)
Brazil
Natiko
Fireblend

Heroes v Villains (2)
Kyanrute
Lone_Prodigy

RNG (1)
CeeCee

Star Wars has been chosen as the next Modifier.
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This was the post-Conspiracy secret vote. As you can now seen, all of the Star Wars voters were/are Town, while all of the Bar 2 voters were Cult... with the apparent exception of Fantomas.

Would this Cult of Sorian, Saw and Flux, along with the missing OG #2, be a cautious enough Cult to split their vote pattern?

If Fantomas was/is still a Mason, why did he vote for Bar 2 with the rest of the Cult?

And where is the OG #2?
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,270
I likely won't be around for Day-end again because I'll be at money

Look over a few more of the vote counts... all the answers are there

I'll try to be back soon

LOW POWER
 
Fanto

Fanto

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Fireblend

Fireblend

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Oct 25, 2017
5,454
Costa Rica
CeeCee said:
I'm torn between LP as mastermind scum lying low and managing to avoid any pressure all game, and LP being LP as town. Think he might be worth a pop though.

I have town reads on you, Nat, and rac, and I have a horrible feeling that one of those is wrong.
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What would make LP a scum mastermind here? Pretty sure the reason he hasn't been lynched yet is we've been focused on hunting cult for the last 2 days. Managing to avoid pressure? What?
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

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Oct 25, 2017
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It's too OP for one of the original cultists to have the vig shot, right? I'm starting to develop a terrible tinfoil hat feeling there. Sorian was pretty focused on it, too.

Blarg- would be a great candidate, but has also been somewhat aggro about cult eradication.
Fireblend- leaning toward claim belief here; has helped with cult
rac- feels more clear than other unknowns based on his actions and actions toward him
Kyanrute- very disconnected at times, but did not vote modifiers with Sorian and crew. Low key all game. No notable (maybe) no interactions with Sorian. Treated oddly by Flux.
CeeCee- Turn to scumhunting here is notable. If Flux was a recruit, makes CeeCee another likely recruit target, but leaves question open of identity of OG cult.

The others I don't think are cult. In order from most to least likely cult here, I'd do this:
Kyan=CeeCee
rac
Blarg
Febe

Possibly swapping Blarg and rac depending on rac reaction. Reraction? womp womp
I don't think rac is cult here but mechanically there's space for it.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Dr. Monkey said:
It's too OP for one of the original cultists to have the vig shot, right? I'm starting to develop a terrible tinfoil hat feeling there. Sorian was pretty focused on it, too.

Blarg- would be a great candidate, but has also been somewhat aggro about cult eradication.
Fireblend- leaning toward claim belief here; has helped with cult
rac- feels more clear than other unknowns based on his actions and actions toward him
Kyanrute- very disconnected at times, but did not vote modifiers with Sorian and crew. Low key all game. No notable (maybe) no interactions with Sorian. Treated oddly by Flux.
CeeCee- Turn to scumhunting here is notable. If Flux was a recruit, makes CeeCee another likely recruit target, but leaves question open of identity of OG cult.

The others I don't think are cult. In order from most to least likely cult here, I'd do this:
Kyan=CeeCee
rac
Blarg
Febe

Possibly swapping Blarg and rac depending on rac reaction. Reraction? womp womp
I don't think rac is cult here but mechanically there's space for it.
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I would probably put Blarg as more likely than rac just because of Blarg's insistence at times that we should ignore the cult because "we may lose, but at least we won't be dead" or whatever he said. At the same time I don't..know..if he would continue to be so brazen about it if he's cult? I generally think neither him or rac though are close to the level that kyan and CeeCee are at in my mind. I suspect both are cult, but there's no way CeeCee is the original.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,270
Natiko I just realised I know nothing about you

Can you Role-claim a little so I can have a general sense of what I'm dealing with
 
Lone_Prodigy

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,414
Dr. Monkey said:
It's too OP for one of the original cultists to have the vig shot, right? I'm starting to develop a terrible tinfoil hat feeling there. Sorian was pretty focused on it, too.

Blarg- would be a great candidate, but has also been somewhat aggro about cult eradication.
Fireblend- leaning toward claim belief here; has helped with cult
rac- feels more clear than other unknowns based on his actions and actions toward him
Kyanrute- very disconnected at times, but did not vote modifiers with Sorian and crew. Low key all game. No notable (maybe) no interactions with Sorian. Treated oddly by Flux.
CeeCee- Turn to scumhunting here is notable. If Flux was a recruit, makes CeeCee another likely recruit target, but leaves question open of identity of OG cult.

The others I don't think are cult. In order from most to least likely cult here, I'd do this:
Kyan=CeeCee
rac
Blarg
Febe

Possibly swapping Blarg and rac depending on rac reaction. Reraction? womp womp
I don't think rac is cult here but mechanically there's space for it.
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And Natiko?
 
Fanto

Fanto

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Vote: Kyanrute

Not much more to say I guess? I posted my read list earlier. Kyan is my top OG Cultist suspect unless someone can come in with a hella good case on someone else and change my mind.
 
Fireblend

Fireblend

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Oct 25, 2017
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Like Monkey said, cult wouldn't start with a vig shot-capable member, or at least I don't think so. That makes me want to avoid CeeCee for the time being.

Let's assume cult started with 2 players. There were 25 other players, and 15 day modifiers. What's the right, balanced number of modifiers that should grant recruitment shots, assuming there was no way for cult to know them in advance?

I would say 5? We've gone through 7 including today's, but they wouldn't have been able to recruit yet if bar 2 granted them a shot, so 6. Following a uniform random distribution (again, assuming they didn't know which would grant them a recruitment shot) and those parameters, I'd expect cult to have recruited 2 players by today (1 recruit every 3 modifiers), which would mean there's likely one left.

If they did know them in advance, then I'd expect the number of "lucky" modifiers to be even lower.
 
Lone_Prodigy

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,414
Dr. Monkey said:
Would be in the list of people I don't think are cult? Which the post said?
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5/9 remaining players are possible cult.

The ones you don't mention are:
Yourself (that's fair)
Me (I'd be the worst cultist, that's fair)
Fanto (confirmed town, would be eventual NK, that's fair)
Natiko

What about Natiko makes you think he's not cult? If he's town as heck, that makes him a great recruit target. And what's to say he's not scum, since he's managed to hang around this long while being pretty town?

I guess he did push Cultneeks hard but she probably doesn't die if Fire doesn't shoot malus and if cult isn't caught sleeping at days' end.
 
Fanto

Fanto

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Lone_Prodigy said:
And what's to say he's not scum, since he's managed to hang around this long while being pretty town?
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The problem with this logic is that Scum's kills were basically set in stone after they shot Cabot for being "pretty Town" on N2.

They got the Doctor claim out of Ketkat and shot her N3.

They took out the other Confirmed Town, Fran, on N4.

They took out our actual Cop, AB, on N5 instead of me because of his claim.

They would have then killed me on N6, but the Cult, so they took a shot on Brazil possibly being a Cultist I suppose.

N7 they killed Sorian. Hallelujah.

If we don't hit Cult today or there is still one more around, they'll probably Cult Hunt again tonight.

Otherwise, I finally get to die.

So let's kill Cult today and cross our fingers they are the last one so I can finally go to Spec Chat. :)
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

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Oct 25, 2017
15,029
Lone_Prodigy said:
5/9 remaining players are possible cult.

The ones you don't mention are:
Yourself (that's fair)
Me (I'd be the worst cultist, that's fair)
Fanto (confirmed town, would be eventual NK, that's fair)
Natiko

What about Natiko makes you think he's not cult? If he's town as heck, that makes him a great recruit target. And what's to say he's not scum, since he's managed to hang around this long while being pretty town?

I guess he did push Cultneeks hard but she probably doesn't die if Fire doesn't shoot malus and if cult isn't caught sleeping at days' end.
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Did you suddenly decide to look busy? Not only did Natiko push Cultneeks (I like this one), he was on the Flux vote, too. Why on earth would I put him before these other candidates - any of them? You have an odd fascination with him. Did you ever answer when I asked you if you saw no possible world in which Natiko was town here?
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

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Oct 25, 2017
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Fantomas said:
The problem with this logic is that Scum's kills were basically set in stone after they shot Cabot for being "pretty Town" on N2.
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^^^^this - we had so many confirmed town (and, apparently, "confirmed town," a la Flux) that scum's had to mow them down until cult. Brazil remains the only outlier kill there. Though I guess Geno too. That was still pretty weird. But n1, eh, too many factors to judge there.
 
Fireblend

Fireblend

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Oct 25, 2017
5,454
Costa Rica
What if Monkey's cult and she's been playing us all along, fooling us into thinking she's had conflicted feelings about Sorian the entire game when in reality they were always a team.

...probably not, but man would that be amazing :P
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

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Oct 25, 2017
15,029
If I was about that stone cold hardbus life, I'd probably be a lot more chill about mafia, but I have zero chill.
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

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Oct 25, 2017
15,029
Come to think of it, that's probably why Sorian is always so chill about lying through his entire face all the time.
 
Lone_Prodigy

Lone_Prodigy

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Oct 25, 2017
7,414
If I were to assign probabilities to everyone, it'll probably be like:

Fanto - 80% town, 0% scum, 20% cult
Blarg - 50% town, 20% scum, 30% cult
Fire - 0% town, 20% scum, 0% cult, 80% pineapple pizza
LP - 100% town, 0% scum, 0% cult
rac - 30% town, 30% scum, 40% cult
Natiko - 40% town, 40% scum, 20% cult
Kyan - 20% town, 30% scum, 50% cult
Monkey - 40% town, 40% scum, 20% cult
CeeCee - 30% town, 30% scum, 40% cult

Cult - rac/Kyan/CeeCee
Scum - Monkey/Natiko and Kyan/rac
 
Lone_Prodigy

Lone_Prodigy

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Oct 25, 2017
7,414
Okay I buy the "scum's been busy with the confirmed town to ignore actual towny people" argument but I'd definitely go "why" if Natiko/Monkey are still around in lylo/mylo.

Dr. Monkey said:
Did you suddenly decide to look busy? Not only did Natiko push Cultneeks (I like this one), he was on the Flux vote, too. Why on earth would I put him before these other candidates - any of them? You have an odd fascination with him. Did you ever answer when I asked you if you saw no possible world in which Natiko was town here?
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I'd take cult off the table, but that still leaves scum and town, and I'm 50/50 on that (well, 40/40).
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

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15,029
Natiko

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
VOTE: kyanrute

You can either show up and at least try and convince us of a different path forward, or you can go ahead and be lynched.

Lone_Prodigy said:
5/9 remaining players are possible cult.

The ones you don't mention are:
Yourself (that's fair)
Me (I'd be the worst cultist, that's fair)
Fanto (confirmed town, would be eventual NK, that's fair)
Natiko

What about Natiko makes you think he's not cult? If he's town as heck, that makes him a great recruit target. And what's to say he's not scum, since he's managed to hang around this long while being pretty town?

I guess he did push Cultneeks hard but she probably doesn't die if Fire doesn't shoot malus and if cult isn't caught sleeping at days' end.
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Kind of ignores the fact that until the day Saw was lynched, most people were actually taking Saw's side more than mine (though thinking back now - not sure how much that may have been because said people were either mafia and knew she wasn't, or cult and either were Saw's teammates or were actively planning to recruit her in the future). There's no world in which I'm cult here, and it's fine to accuse me of being scum but lets be honest - we all know which of us is the one likely to flip scum lol

It's not lost on me that LP is now suddenly eager to paint others as scum knowing that his time is likely coming tomorrow.
 
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