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MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
Yep, I think that's the best plan. No one has disagreed at least.
Fuck off. I'm sure you made these same arguments every other time people made an argument that a counter wagon was propped up by scum right? Right?
I'm honestly starting to lean towards wanting to go for CeeCee first now lol. Will the sick scum read from Blarg come true? Will he have been Vanillaized and recruited to the Cult Team like some think is a possibility? Will he just be the Town 1-Shot DayVig who killed Emperor Stan? All of these answers could be ours today before we place a more regular vote.
Otherwise, we can go for Kyan first to wrap up yesterday's two top targets. I'm still ok with that being the first one I suppose.
Otherwise, we can go for Kyan first to wrap up yesterday's two top targets. I'm still ok with that being the first one I suppose.
Fantomas (Possible Cult, Previously Town Mason)
These are the facts:
- Difficult to tell at which point the turn would have happened, if it did.
- After seeing Sorian's flip, I don't agree with the notion that only vanilla town can be recruited. But there have to be some unlisted restrictions, because I also don't believe the idea that cult can recruit scum. That just sounds absurd.
- Claimed Mason on D3 after Cabot was NK'd, corroborated with breadcrumbs. Has since enjoyed repeating that he was confirmed town at multiple instances.
- Has strongly and outright denied the possibility of his being cult when I've brought it up, even though there's nothing to really refute the idea.
- The one thing that would make me wonder if they'd recruit Fantomas, unless it was also on N2, is that a confirmed town would be a likely target for scum to kill (as we've seen with Fran).
- The reason Fantomas hasn't been killed has either been because of cult: either because they're now focused, as we are, to lower their numbers, and/or because they want to make Fantomas more suspect.
- Claimed Vanilla Town (among other things).
- Has pointed fingers in a lot of places. Some involve scum. Others involve cult with Sorian. Some involve town. I suppose, if there is an agenda, it's hard to follow.
- It's a game about him, though, and the scum faction are named after him. Not sure that means anything, but it'd be funny if he was scum and we just ignored the obvious parallel there.
- Really wants to flip CeeCee. Has explained his reasons. You know, I want to as well. I think this flip would give more information about Blarg, too.
- With his D6 vote flipping between Sawneeks and malus, and where his vote eventually ended up, I don't think that he was cult at least as of D6, unless he was cult with Fireblend.
- For reasons I've stated previously, I think the Pizza Lover claim is possibly made up just like Sorian's Love Boat maker claim.
- Admittedly, this one is far-fetched, but I also can easily see it based on the decisions that have been made in this game.
- Honestly, this sequence would be a pretty strong coincidence:
- Fireblend acquires Price is Right item.
- Suspicion of Fireblend truly increases and could have ended up in his lynch.
- Fireblend makes the pizza claim (out of nowhere, which hadn't been breadcrumbed in any way before D6). Removes him as a viable lynch target for D6.
- Fireblend uses the Price is Right item and "accidentally" reveals the cult.
- Like, really, none of that is connected? All of those were separate moving parts that just happened to come together? I'm not sure the goal was even to get Pineapple Pizza voted on. It could have just been a cover for what was actually happening.
- Additionally, Sorian tried to deemphasize the fact that Fireblend was actually looking like a suitable D6 lynch target until the claim.
These are the facts:
- I claimed Commuter on D2 to refute turmoil's lie. If I did not have a commuter role, outright refuting the false claim with my own would be risky (putting actual investigative roles on me, if there was an actual commuter, etc.)
- AbsolutBro confirmed that I was a power role on D5. I'm not a vanilla townie who got recruited to the cult before N4, or else I would have had the same "Vanilla" result that Pirate Bae sent back.
- Therefore, if I was a member of a cult, I would need to have started off as cult, like Sorian did.
- Except, Sorian clearly didn't care if I was lynched on D2. He voted for me during the day voting was locked. He was fine with flipping me or turmoil, equally (obviously, since he was aligned with neither). Not to mention he's antagonized me from the start.
- So either I was a cult leader type from the start that Sorian was ready to get rid of when I very well could have been lynched at the end of D2 (not to mention Sawneeks, too, who hesitated until the end), either I am a power role that cult recruited at some point, or I'm actually a town-aligned commuter.
- If you want to support the argument that I was a power role that cult recruited, then you'd also need to make an argument for why cult would want to risk a recruitment shot on someone who has claimed commuter.
- There's not much there, as the remaining player who has posted the least. Grizzly has posted almost 3 times as much.
- The votes are unsubstantial, when there actually are any. None placed on scum when they were the focus attention. Votes placed on town when they were the focus of attention.
- That almost hammer on Sawneeks on D6 makes me think he's not cult.
- In the same mindspace to me as Zeke. If you want to talk about someone who's on their own island, this is also it. For the same reason I once defended KetKat, I have the same feeling here.
- Votes aren't great. Never placed a vote on scum, was focused solely on malus for multiple days. Decided not to place any votes at the end of D7. Now is doing what seems to be an OMGUS vote on me with a conspiracy theory to back it up.
- One of the remaining players actively trying to solve the game.
- I agree with his views in the way I did Sawneeks' before (though she did end up being cult...).
- He views Dr. Monkey as possible scum. Her flip would probably give information on Natiko.
- Didn't budge on his D6 Sawneeks vote. Though he had been on Sawneeks for being scum before, this at least makes me think he wasn't cult as of D6.
- Though his vote on Faddy only came after the counter-claim, he did vote for turmoil at a critical point where it could have been me... I guess? It was kinda a the end of things, though. He had scum read turmoil before then.
- Because of how he placed his vote on Faddy early on and didn't budge, I'm not sure he's scum. Other than that, it's votes that pretty much align with who everyone else were voting for.
- Never voted once on the same modifier Sorian did during a night phase. If Sorian was prioritizing modifiers that would get him a recruitment shot, it doesn't seem like Kyan wanted to do the same.
- Kind of in the same mindspace as Blarg or maybe even rac, but less active.
- Could someone point me to the actual arguments for Kyanrute being a possible cult leader? Because I'm not seeing it, going back.
- There are basically no proper connections between Kyanrute and Sorian, or Sawneeks, but that could be an indication of its own. Possibly Kyan trying to distance himself as much as possible from other cult members?
- That Pineapple Pizza vote on N7 to RNG switch is like Lone_Prodigy's.
- Bad vibes have been increasing here. I've town read her like Sawneeks for most of the game, but that's the goal, isn't it.
- Vote on turmoil was non-committal. "Gotta flip one of them." Not letting us know who she thought was lying or not in that scenario.
- Vote on Faddy was changed from Fandorin with the excuse of it being a pressure vote which was never changed, after Fran and Kyanrute placed their votes on him. This was before the fake claim. They obviously planned for it in the scum chat, so having scum place a vote on him before it happened and before a counter-claim would make them look good.
- The way she's talked about Sorian and their Love Boat chat doesn't make me think she was cult alongside him. I don't think Dr. Monkey's open belief in Sorian akin to Fandorin/Brazil would have been the case if they had both been on the same team. But someone who knew they weren't scum before we knew there was even a cult would be very ready to do this.
- If CeeCee were to flip town, I think that implicates both Dr. Monkey and Blargonaut immediately.
- The only reason CeeCee's been disregarded for this long is because of the shot on Stanley that scum would obviously not do since it was too brazen, and because of the argument that CeeCee was a counter to the bomb.
- But considering what Blarg's saying about the overrides and which I also thought about before, this would also be taken as a suitable counter to the bomb.
- I was suspicious of Sophia early on and the same of CeeCee for reasons that I don't even remember and that I'd need to go back to D1 to read through, but those feelings never subsided.
- CeeCee would be the perfect player to recruit as cult if they were town, and also the perfect place to be as scum.
- CeeCee's been strongly defended by scum (Faddy, particularly) and cult (Sorian, particularly) anytime it was suggested he'd be a viable lynch target. Like, there's some weird vested interest here from some party.
We should 100% turbo before the day ends and we have time to react to the lynch. I fully expect to be in contention if we don't catch cult in the first lynch but eh.
This is a really intriguing reads list and I want to go through it all here in a minute but let me comment here: we do know Sneeks was recruited, because she had an original non-cult role, and per their shot-gaining, it was impossible for her to have been cult at this time, so this is moot.
This keeps being brought up. I don't know if it's standard protocol to just be open with your counter-claim when someone is obviously lying or what, but my thought process was to keep my role under wraps (since it's designed, after all, to make scum miss a kill) while also getting turmoil lynched. Obviously, it didn't happen that way. But if turmoil had been lynched without my needing to claim, scum might have been inclined to shoot me that night, and I could have avoided it.
That is why I didn't want to claim. Same goes for any investigative role or whatever scum have that I could have made them waste, too.
I'm not sure what you mean. Yes, we do know Sawneeks was recruited, and I'm not saying otherwise. What I am arguing is that, if AbsolutBro has investigated Sawneeks after she was recruited, she would still have sent back a "Vanilla" result, just like Pirate Bae did. It's not related to one's alignment, but to one's role. And the fact is that I am not vanilla.
OP
OP
==== DAY 8 VOTES ====
Day Start
ceecee (2 votes)
blargonaut - #7,366 #7,455
blargonaut - #7,476
fluxwavez - #7,649
fluxwavez (1 votes)
rac - #7,568
dr. monkey (0 votes)
rac - #7,417 #7,417
fireblend (0 votes)
fluxwavez - #7,448 #7,649
blargonaut - #7,455 #7,476
lone_prodigy (0 votes)
rac - #7,417 #7,568
Post Counts:
rac: 78 fantomas: 66 dr. monkey: 63 blargonaut: 53 natiko: 40 fireblend: 27 fluxwavez: 19 grizzly: 6 kyanrute: 5 lone_prodigy: 5 ceecee: 4
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
Day Start
ceecee (2 votes)
blargonaut - #7,476
fluxwavez - #7,649
fluxwavez (1 votes)
rac - #7,568
dr. monkey (0 votes)
fireblend (0 votes)
lone_prodigy (0 votes)
Post Counts:
rac: 78 fantomas: 66 dr. monkey: 63 blargonaut: 53 natiko: 40 fireblend: 27 fluxwavez: 19 grizzly: 6 kyanrute: 5 lone_prodigy: 5 ceecee: 4
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
No, there's no standard response, really. It's situational. But it does mean we have to weigh that response. I understand that can be frustrating for you, but from the perspective of everyone else, it's going to keep coming up.
???? You put Sawneeks there with Sorian not being worried about lynching you. That's what I was commenting on - there's no way Sawneeks could have been cult d2 (mechanically, n2 was the first possible recruit moment). I'm not sure what you're arguing back here...?
Oh, I think I get you. That Sawneeks thing was just a passing mention that could relate to further perception as she was recruited to the cult. Like you said, she wasn't cult at that point; it's not something to really analyze.
Yeah, see the above. The parentheses were really for that: the point is about Sorian.
Let's say I was scum or cult. What are the answers you would get from my flip? Who would it implicate if I was either?
It would tell us if you were original cult or if PRs could be converted, first of all (same with CeeCee), and you have a lot more interactions than CeeCee.
I'm gonna be away for a short while and then back for several hours to finish up some digging.
I don't think you are Scum.
If you are Cult, well first of all I get to dance for having called you out as a Neutral on D4, but besides that:
- You would be one of the Original Cultists alongside Sorian.
- We would learn that Sorian was totally fine with suspecting you all game.
- You might be the only remaining Cultist left, or the only Original Cultist left.
- You might have been recruited and lost your role, or still have it even, we don't know about Cult's recruitment powers and you have a confirmed PR via AB's reports.
- We could look at Natiko, who I felt was perhaps soft-defending you yesterday a bit, and anyone else who may have been trying to dissuade that idea.
- People like myself and Rac who have been very suspicious of you are looking a lot less Culty.
I think that's a healthy amount of info if you flip Cult.
If you flip Town:
- You would have been telling the truth this whole time about your role and we would know your intentions in this whole game, even if we have at times been unable to understand them, were coming from a Town place.
- This means we can look back on your reads and know they were at least honest.
- Rac deciding to jump aboard suspecting you yesterday when he knew I was having suspect thoughts about you for days makes him look a little opportunistic in my mind maybe.
- Anyone else who never really suspected you as much as me but was suddenly 100% OK with lynching you would look a bit suspect as well I think.
Ha, right, I guess that'd be an interesting scenario for you.
I'd have to flip my thinking around and imagine myself as another town player, flipping myself as scum/cult and what that'd tell me... Weird. Right now, I feel that it'd be like what Brazil was saying about Fandorin and what actually turned out to be the case. But with a fewer amount of players, maybe my flip would actually help town anyways. I'm not sure the cult situation is as dire as what's been speculated, because of the modifier restrictions I'm guessing are pretty strict.
I realize I kind of rambled and repeated myself a few times here, but I think the main points stand haha.
I'm not sure the "If I flip town" bullet points will realistically amount to anything other than, "Oh, so he was actually a town commuter." But fair enough. I think the most important part would be the people who would push for me as 1 of the 2 lynches today, knowing that I'm not on their team. Those are the ones who'd be important to look into, moving forward.
Why do you guess this?
We have thrown out so many speculations - vanilla town, modifiers, etc. - and we honestly have no idea. We have no way of knowing. We have Sawneeks, who was VT, and we have Sorian himself, but we don't have anything concrete from either, so please, if you have an idea about something, tell us why you think that.
I'm doing some vote analysis so I'm not ready to speak up yet, which I just further proved to myself by typing and deleting several possible responses. There's too many angles. I gotta find something to hold on to.
Yeah that's fair. I should probably take a look back at some votes too, I just feel like I've stared at them all so much already.
But yeah, no rush, we don't have to do it right at the halfway mark or anything, just want to make sure we all get our points in here and then make an agreement since we do seem to all agree on the early turbo being the best way to handle the Double Lynch.
febe, if I send you money or my firstborn or books or candy or something can we get sortable votes
It's just balance speculation. I'm not convinced they need to recruit Vanilla Town. It's why I had pinned Fantomas as a possibility in the previous day phase, and why I thought they might have gone for the Pineapple Pizza gambit. Now, I still think the same of Fantomas, and also because of what Fantomas has been saying about the possibilities cult could have had if they had recruited town PR.
So to balance that, they started with 0 shots, and needed to get certain modifiers voted on that would give them a recruitment shot. I guess it also depends on how many were cult from the start, but I believe that the type of modifiers that will give them a recruitment shot are very limited, and it's why Sorian was so adamant about not voting in Love Boat, among other modifier stuff.
It's also because of the Zeke flip, who I thought would have at least been cult for sure. My guess is that, right now, it's something like:
- 5 town
- 2 scum
- 3 cult
If I could sort by voter, not votee, I would be thrilled. Or something. I started making the vote spreadsheets at MU because their vote tool also returns vote order as a list - Fireblend voted for Monkey in post 56, Monkey voted for Flux in 57, Flux voted for Natiko in 62, rac voted for Fireblend in 63, etc., etc. It's just a secondary view and I found it super useful. But really any alternate view would offer a second angle of analysis. Right now you get a sense of movement by comparing post numbers but there's only one view available.
i am very grateful for vote tool as it is, though, I'm just fussing while trying to get a grip on this shit
I'm working on a full recode of the tool that will make specific queries like this possible. The course I'm teaching is winding down so I should have more time to work on it soon :)
Day 4 votes are where things start to get interesting for a lot of reasons. D3 ends up being a wash because Faddy. But by D4, I'm willing to bet Sawneeks was already a cultist. It was an intense day.
D5, the secret vote, is also a trip. Sorian posted the most, but didn't vote. Flux voted, but didn't post. And I don't know if this means shit all. Marking these here for myself mainly so I can get back to them.
D5, the secret vote, is also a trip. Sorian posted the most, but didn't vote. Flux voted, but didn't post. And I don't know if this means shit all. Marking these here for myself mainly so I can get back to them.
This has been annoying me for days and I did it too because I thought I was the wrong one.
D4 was just a clusterfuck of votes being thrown around all over the place, that is my first thought any time I try to look back on that day.
Sorian and Saw both settled on Brazil in the end, but were both on Fandorin earlier in the day. Neither were on Malus that day.
Flux's vote is also all over the place that day. I think it goes Fandorin -> Fandorin -> Brazil -> Malus -> Fandorin -> Brazil -> Fandorin.
Kyan floated between Malus and Fandorin but landed on Fandorin.
Blarg was the only player left alive who voted for Sorian at one point on that day, all the others have flipped Town.
I guess those are the votes that stick out to me the most.
Looking at votes on malus:
LP at least is probably not cult.
But Flux had voted malus before, at least. It's a weird vote the phase before, though:
I deeply dislike this vote and it's very characteristic of CeeCee this whole game. Lack of investment and engagement. But I don't know if that's more or less likely to be cult.
Yeah, Blarg has been weird af but I'm inclined not to vote him as cult, but it's indeterminate re: town/scum. Flipping CeeCee might answer that one for us, actually. But Blarg would be the person after you, Fanto, that I'd say is least likely to be cult.
Kyan I jus don't know.
As for Flux, I keep coming back to the idea that Sorian just handwaved Flux here and in boat chat as just being odd. It's really difficult to determine if that was legit Sorian or if it was a ploy because there's little to determine either way.
I wanna go ly dow tbh
This bugs me. LP gonna LP but CeeCee and Kyan are just hanging out. Even Febe is posting and if Febe's telling the truth, he has no real reason to be invest except to get us to give him his pizza.
But Zeke went quiet yesterday, too, so WTF WHO KNOWS
Wait, Rac has more posts than me this phase so far? This can't be right.
rac stop posting, wtf.
-----------
On a more serious note, yes, it does somewhat concern me that people like CeeCee and Kyan, who find themselves in the spotlight, are not around to post here at all.
But then, yes, it does remind me of Zeke yesterday since I remember feeling that defeatist attitude from his posts as we got closer to EoD even though yeah, he was Town the whole time.
CeeCee certainly has that feeling to his posts.
Kyan is kind of just... not around to hang out with us as much as he used to I feel like though?
Ugh.
Did Kyan and Sorian ever really interact together in this game? I can't really recall any interactions between the two that stick out off the top of my head, and I'm sure plenty of the rest of us can recall many times when we were quoted by Sorian and had to read some... comment from him.
Kyaaa is hiding. I don't see much traction for my fancy ideas and people are rather against me - I feel I have no influence over the situation.
For what it is worth, I think the current two are terrible lynches. This rather reminds me of D4 where I can't see the clear case for these two. Are they the a part OG cult? Are they recruited cultists? Or are they scum?
For what it is worth, I think the current two are terrible lynches. This rather reminds me of D4 where I can't see the clear case for these two. Are they the a part OG cult? Are they recruited cultists? Or are they scum?
Ah, I was just about to vote for you to see if you'd show up lol.
Speaking only for myself, I would see Flux as an OG Cultist, and I would see CeeCee as Scum here.
However, people have also brought up the idea of CeeCee having been converted to the Cult, which would give info on whether or not PRs can be recruited. I still firmly believe they could only recruit Vanilla Town for balancing reasons, but depending on the flip, it would either further bolster my stance on that, or completely disprove it. So I can't say I'm against it for those reasons either since I also kind of like Blarg's CeeCee as Scum theory and think the flip will give us info on Blarg as well depending on that.
okay *cracks knuckles* let's at least do some rhetorical analysis for fun and maybe profit. this is like my weighted blankie of comfort here.
first these headers/descriptors are really something - I get that this is your read on people but it's also back to that idea of speaking something into presence is a rhetorical technique. To add on my earlier posts here to Brazil, I think it was, I'll add this link about it in contemporary approaches. I am not saying I think Flux is doing this on purpose or doing it subconsciously; I don't know. But I am pointing out that this is a new structure for Flux's reads and that sticks out to me as a point of consideration at this stage.
Like look at Fanto: Previously Town Mason. Is he? It's a read, unless Flux is sitting on information. So while I can understand why a reads list would be structured this way, it's also possibly a ploy. BUT the actual text is full of ifs and maybes so it could just as easily be weird format Flux didn't think much about. shrug forever.
2. Just kind of a stray observation on possibilities here; fine.
3. Fact, nothing to do with read.
4. There's plenty to refute the idea; why not address it? If you think they can't recruit scum, why masons? Why recruit the only CONFIRMED (really truly confirmed) town in the game when they could die at any time and make you waste a shot? This is the shadiest point on this list.
5. Well, jk, this one is also shady. Other than the night Brazil died, which was a weird kill, there have been other confirmed towns for scum to also NK and then there was cult. There are plenty of reasons for Fanto to have not died. The Brazil kill was the only surprise there; that's when Fanto probably should have died. But cult and scum are not the same so??????
Will separate into other posts.
first these headers/descriptors are really something - I get that this is your read on people but it's also back to that idea of speaking something into presence is a rhetorical technique. To add on my earlier posts here to Brazil, I think it was, I'll add this link about it in contemporary approaches. I am not saying I think Flux is doing this on purpose or doing it subconsciously; I don't know. But I am pointing out that this is a new structure for Flux's reads and that sticks out to me as a point of consideration at this stage.
Like look at Fanto: Previously Town Mason. Is he? It's a read, unless Flux is sitting on information. So while I can understand why a reads list would be structured this way, it's also possibly a ploy. BUT the actual text is full of ifs and maybes so it could just as easily be weird format Flux didn't think much about. shrug forever.
1. I don't think so? I think it would clearly have been later when it looked like Fantomas was not gonna die; early, recruiting Fanto would have been a bad move and I have many feelings about Sorian but he's a hell of a mafia player and there's little way to dispute that.
2. Just kind of a stray observation on possibilities here; fine.
3. Fact, nothing to do with read.
4. There's plenty to refute the idea; why not address it? If you think they can't recruit scum, why masons? Why recruit the only CONFIRMED (really truly confirmed) town in the game when they could die at any time and make you waste a shot? This is the shadiest point on this list.
5. Well, jk, this one is also shady. Other than the night Brazil died, which was a weird kill, there have been other confirmed towns for scum to also NK and then there was cult. There are plenty of reasons for Fanto to have not died. The Brazil kill was the only surprise there; that's when Fanto probably should have died. But cult and scum are not the same so??????
Will separate into other posts.
1. Why just highlight the one, and why do you believe it?
2. Blarg is Blarg
3. It would be far funnier if he was the vanilla game designer cult leader, but otherwise, I'll agree here - it doesn't matter though.
4. I do agree here.
5. Also here. Flux and I are pretty same page on Blarg.
1. You linked so many other things, why not link some of your previous posts?
2-3 and subpoints presents a very interesting possibility and I'm gonna save it for a separate post.
4. I think you're a. skipping a lot of what Sorian did in that same sequence (your links don't work for me, btw, and linking to a page leaves things really open to interpretation), but also, b. I don't think you're considering that cult would want to not lynch Febe when it's better for them in reaching majority if Febe leaves the game. So this is a very limited perspective on the issue and I'm not sure why.
More coming.
What did turmoil say about Flux's PR again? This rather matters here. Hmm.
Commuter is 1 or 2 in priority, it competes with blocks and really nothing else I think. So if scum target a commuter with an investigative, they get a "no result", what only infers that Flux has a PR that makes him untargetable or was manipulated by some other PR. No investigative, I think, should see the commuter whereas a alignment flip traditionally is at the bottom of the priority. They'd see him moving or get his target or get the command or the role but there was nothing to hint toward this. turmoil's play to me still feels like a desperate scum play to out a town PR. Overall I don't think scum knew of the cult before Neeks bit the bullet.
Is that all you have on Cee? Anyway, what does a Cee town PR flip tell us about the cults ability to recruit PRs? I feel it is nothing. You only get information if Cee flips as cult, no?