• Light/Dark
  • Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts

Reader mode
Fireblend

Fireblend

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,454
Costa Rica
Dr. Monkey said:
But I'm not going to be that kind of doctor. :( Maybe a red pen. Except I don't usually use them. I dunno! A stack of books.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Fine

N1jQ7nM.png
 
Fanto

Fanto

Is this tag ok?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,863
Fireblend said:
No thoughts on my math post? I suppose it doesn't say nothing new but any disagreements on assumptions?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Fireblend said:
Like Monkey said, cult wouldn't start with a vig shot-capable member, or at least I don't think so. That makes me want to avoid CeeCee for the time being.

Let's assume cult started with 2 players. There were 25 other players, and 15 day modifiers. What's the right, balanced number of modifiers that should grant recruitment shots, assuming there was no way for cult to know them in advance?

I would say 5? We've gone through 7 including today's, but they wouldn't have been able to recruit yet if bar 2 granted them a shot, so 6. Following a uniform random distribution (again, assuming they didn't know which would grant them a recruitment shot) and those parameters, I'd expect cult to have recruited 2 players by today (1 recruit every 3 modifiers), which would mean there's likely one left.

If they did know them in advance, then I'd expect the number of "lucky" modifiers to be even lower.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I want to believe this is true, yes, because it means they are down to just one. The problem is if we don't hit them today, they might still have another recruit shot, and then we're going to be doing this for a while still.
rac said:
can you tell me why its more likely for kyan to be original cult then the others?

you could lynch me too, i would v much like that
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
If it weren't for the Cult being in existence, I would probably be suspecting Kyan as Scum right now, but I think it makes more sense for him to have been Cult this whole time instead actually. The most telling thing to me is how much his play changed once we needed to start hunting Cult instead of Scum. He was fine during the Scum Hunting days, but now it feels like he's clammed up and hardly has anything to give us.

I'm sure you'll get lynched eventually Rac, don't worry. Especially once I die. :)
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,029
Okay, enough screwing around.

Mechanics make me lean Kyan over CeeCee as OG cult, though if Kyan wants to claim and give us something else to discuss, that's fine, too. Flux's odd take on Kyan has to come into account here, too. I think I want to go look back at Sneeks v Kyan.

The only arguments in favor of CeeCee as cult here are a) Sorian was pretty determined to sort CeeCee in thread (and in our boat) and b) that follows the pattern with Flux, but it would mean CeeCee is a recruit, not OG.
 
Fireblend

Fireblend

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,454
Costa Rica
Needless to say I also believe a Kyan lynch is the most likely to flip cult. I'll wait to see if they want to come in and say anything before voting.
 
rac

rac

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,134
no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
 
Fanto

Fanto

Is this tag ok?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,863
Ok, I'm going to be busy for the next few hours here.

I should be back at least 1-2 hours before EoD though if not sooner, but I figured I'd give you all the heads up anyways just in case.

I'm still fine with my vote on Kyan unless something major happens by the time I get back.
 
CeeCee

CeeCee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,118
rac said:
no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Although, this is a decent point...

Blarg,do you have something to tell us?
rac said:
no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

On the one hand, that is a little suspicious.

On the other hand, he did call out the Cult Leader, which would be ballsy if he was the other.

On the other other hand, it is Blarg
 
Natiko

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
rac said:
no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
To be fair, multiple people started out thinking it would be vanillas only. Even after Sorian's flip didn't mention that restriction there was more than just Blarg left as skeptical PRs could be recruited (Fanto obviously jumps to mind, think there may have been another).

rac said:
what if fb caught blarg on the saw lynch
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I will say if anyone on that lynch would be cult it would be Blarg, just due to how much he was hopping around. I could see Blarg as cult openly pushing to ignore cult because it's easy to not take seriously coming from him. That said I still don't think the links there are as strong as kyan and CeeCee being on the Malus lynch with Flux, Sorian, and Saw then being on the Zeke lynch with Flux. Both have been low key of late as well. Kyan has no current reason to be excluded as original cult compared to say CeeCee either.
 
Kyanrute

Kyanrute

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,629
Tomato
Showdown.

I am Heck the Cultist. The OG one. The final one.

This is a concession of defeat or something like that. Hammer me or spend the four hours you have to do the starting steps for tomorrow's discussion. You do you.

Scum could be in a bind here, dunno. Depends how many there are. Fanto should be the kill I think but obviously I don't have the info you sillies have so you do you.

Town, you should really give Fire his Pizza. The shot fucked up things pretty bad or at least tossed cult timetable way off and there was no recovering from that. Would be sad if he did not get some sort of a reward for that. No you doing you here townies, don't be mean to the one who saved you all.

What else, what else. Not much me thinks. I tried to recruit Blarg last night for the infinite memepoints but it was not meant to be. A shame.

The end.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn.
 
Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,029
Well, I appreciate your confession nonetheless. I'm sorry you were cursed with being Heck, the Dirty Cultist, 'cause now we gotta murder you.

vote: Kyanrute

May be Blarg is something unusual (other than Blarg), maybe Bae was honest and there really is a roleblock out there.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.