Meanwhile, malus doesn't have as many posts but boy did they stand out:
Okay, finally caught up as best as I could.
First about the leader, I think monkey made a good point about that. Electing someone that is already a natural leader won't give us that much information since they will have an easy time justifying their decision. On the other hand I don't want a total pushover that will just follow the majority blindly since that makes it easy to hide. It could also be interesting to elect a fairly new player, since an experienced player could easily fake their behavior as leader.
I would also like to point out the vote by ShadowSwordMaster. He is new to the game and goes directly to vote for Terraforce without any reasoning. As a new player I'd expect him to first watch a bit to see what's going on and all. I don't want to call it a collusion with Terra just yet, but it does give me a weird feeling in that direction. Also so far Fantomas hasn't really convinced me otherwise.
Sophia was my top scum read before she dropped out mainly based on her interaction with FluxWaveZ and flip flopping on the Blargonaut affair.
But why did SSW vote you in his first post and without any reasoning? It doesn't make sense to me. Especially for a new player. And why would a vote at day end be more suspicious? At that point we would have more information and everyone would have made up their mind. A vote without information seems to be much more suspect to me.
We can still use the vote tool even if the votes don't actually count.
If we decide on a pool of candidates everyone should make their case on who should or shouldn't be in this pool, so everyone has to share their reads anyway. I'm really not a fan of having the leader choose the target without restriction, because it takes all agency away from the other players.
No, I don't think that. I just fear that if we let the leader do his thing there is no risk for scum to bus each other. If there are no consequences for your reads, just throw shade everywhere so you can later say "see I said it there first" when one of them should flip.
Well there is the vote out of nowhere. It's not much but why would anyone (especially a new player) come into the game with a random vote? It just seems weird to me.
Sure, but that's no reason to dismiss it entirely.
I didn't expect my meager 6 posts to garner this much attention. I feel better about Fantomas now, since he has made some good posts and has put in some work, which is the Fantomas I know.
Terraforce is in a similar camp for me. To me he often comes across as a bit confrontational, but he was like that in all games I've seen him in, so I'm not holding it against him.
Sorian must be very good at reading people if he can see a pattern in my Day 1 play from the one Day 1 I actually played, but then I guess most people are mostly nothing on D1 anyway.
Your only posts are advocating a vote for you as leader and some stuff about Blarg being Blarg. I wouldn't call that making a case.
The above series of posts is malus's opening to the game. Right out of the gate he jumps out with concern over Terra/Fanto due to the SSM vote on Terra for leader. He doesn't just give it a passing comment though - he actually spends nearly all of his posts at least partially arguing this point. Then after he starts catching more flak for it you see a complete 180 when he returns to the thread. It's early though and he professes to not be good at reads - sure.
Not sure how I feel about a CeeCee lynch. This whole thing stinks of "not-town", but if it's a town power it could still be useful. In my experience postponing a lynch of a suspicious player to the next day to see how scum reacts backfires more often than not however.
I don't know why anyone would just blindly shoot the leader before claiming to be honest.
We had agreed he would shoot near day end, which is still 12 hours away, so he wasn't going to shoot you out of the blue (I hope).
Brazil talked about this some already, but I thought it still deserved a mention. He starts out clearly against CeeCee in the above posts.
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced CeeCee is not scum. Probably neutral, but I don't see a scum team doing what he did. If CeeCee knew Stan was town it would be clear that shooting him would not save him from being lynched. And with that we are again in "would scum do something so scummy to look less scum?" territory.
I would suggest we keep him around so he can use his kill shot at day end tomorrow on the top voted target. That way we get essentially two lynches per day. If he kills anyone else we just lynch him immediately. If he is really town, scum will probably kill him tonight anyway.
Now he has progressed to CeeCee being neutral.
Let's say CeeCee is scum: What has he gained from announcing the kill? While he was a top contender for the lynch, I don't think it was set in stone yet and he could have killed someone anyway and possibly have stayed hidden. With the situation now, he is so much in the spotlight, that any wrong move will get him lynched. So at most he will get one more day kill that isn't sanctioned by the mob. If he had killed secretly and someone else I think he could have sparked a completely different discussion, without going into the spotlight himself.
Let's say CeeCee is neutral: The win condition would probably be to kill a set amount of people, or one specific player. Again he will only be able to get one unsanctioned shot, so his best bet in that case would be to follow the consensus. Mafia would definitely not want to keep such a role around making his play again very bad. Similar to the scum case, he would have been much better off shooting secretly and probably somebody else.
While there would definitely have been better plays as town, it really is the only way I see this making any sense at all.
Now it
only makes sense as town?
Sure, and Scum Vigs exist as well I assume. I don't believe CeeCee is scum, but in the off chance he is, you're just giving him a free pass to kill whoever, and it won't be scum.
More town for CeeCee
That's my kind of modifier.
Honestly this post makes me want to lynch CeeCee. He shot a town member in cold blood, and now that it's time to prove he's town he's suddenly unable to shoot. I guess an odd day vigilante could make sense, but still I wouldn't be surprised if he finds some other excuse in the next day phase to not have to shoot someone (Probably that he's actually 1-shot or something).
I'm not sure how one town BP would much improve a day vigilante. With that many players it seem unlikely he would hit that one. A town vig is not necessarily bad for scum, since the chance he hits town are still pretty high. Makes me question a bit why he didn't bring this up yesterday, when it was still a hot topic, but I guess he didn't have much pressure on himself then to claim and he also says he still leans town CeeCee so I wouldn't particularly scum read this quote just yet.
Seems kind of strange to mention what you "should" do as scum to then say you did something different. Reads to me like "Scum would do this. I didn't do this therefore I can't be scum". But why even mention this at all if you're talking about yourself? Gives me a bit of a strange feeling about Fireblend.
Fran comes off as town to me today. He sounded pretty confident to have proven himself until Sorian brought up the idea of a scum universal backup. I guess if he's really an overrider now there's not much we can do about it today anyway.
Just as a side note, with Terra flipping vanilla my point from last day phase about SSWs vote is now void, which makes me feel much better about Fantomas.
But now on D2 he is okay with killing CeeCee..
I don't see why a neutral would only have one shot or be restricted in his shots unless it's some strange win condition. I still think scum!CeeCee is unlikely but if he can't shoot next day phase and doesn't give a satisfactory explanation I'll definitely advocate for his lynch.
Could be one of those "so scummy it can't possibly be scum" actions that scum came up with.
..and wants to push for death if CeeCee doesn't come through D3.
Generally speaking this reads to me like inexperienced scum that initially thought he had an easy scum read to push for without any repercussion, realized the thread wasn't trending in that direction after all and backed off it hoping that CeeCee will kill more townies, and then ultimately upon realizing CeeCee can't even do that wants to try and justify a CeeCee lynch after all. If you couldn't see CeeCee's actions as anything but town D1, how has that changed at all just because he lied about his shots?
I'm not sure that's how this works. If I'm scum I first look who has suspicions on whom and try to fester the suspicions that are helpful for me. So I wouldn't want to be the first to scum read someone but rather kind of agree with someone else after they have made a scum read. Also an easy target to me is someone that is already heavily scum read, because you can just agree with everyone instead of having to come up with reasons for yourself.
Town
Fantomas: I like his effort so far and he has made some good points. Sometimes his reads seem a bit superficial, but we really don't have much information to work with, so I don't blame him for that.
Blarg: Sometimes I can see a bit of consciousness shine through the madness and it gives me hope. Seriously though he has made some good posts without provocation, while in GoT (where he was scum) he only backed down from his antics when he was an actual contender to be lynched for it.
Chuggs: I'm kind of meh on the role claim, but otherwise has made a solid impression so far.
CeeCee: With the new revelations on his role he could honestly fall on both sides for me. For now I'm more leaning town because I can't come up with a reason why scum would do that, but then that might also have been the plan all along.
KetKat: I'm always a bit suspicious if many people seem to scum read the same player, because if no one opposes the scum read it means scum is okay with it. On the other hand I guess scum wouldn't want to seem to be defending one of their own too vehemently.
Rac: Seems to be constantly catching up, so not much contribution today, but what he posted made me feel more like town than scum.
Turmoil: He hasn't contributed much today and what he said didn't give me much confidence.
Pirate Bae: This is mostly gut feeling. I feel like she's throwing some half baked shade around to see what sticks.
Scum
I feel like on day 1 with very little information, so this list is mostly based on just gut reading.
Do you think we should get rid of CeeCee?
Now we get closer to D2 end. Here we have malus listing Bae has the scummiest person on the list from Fran - note that he explicitly says it is a gut feeling both for her read and in general. Turmoil is next to last on this list as well.
(Side note: More bloodlust for CeeCee)
Stats! :D
Vote: Pirate Bae
Vote for Bae after the stats.
The outlier for both Chuggs and KetKat happens to be Pirate Bae.
Now thinking about that it makes me kind of question my scum read of her, since scum would probably avoid such extreme positions.
And then
immediately walking it back. I pointed this out yesterday because it very much reads like someone hoping she will be flipped but wanting to separate himself from any ownership of said lynch.
To elaborate on my vote, it's only semi influenced by the graphs I posted. I already said she is currently my top scum read and this is just the continuation of that. But from the stats we can see that she has been read from top town to top scum, so we should get a lot of information from a flip.
This seems like a cop out to not have to commit to anything.
Then when pressed on the vote, malus mentions it's a continuation of his previous read. His previous gut read, on his gut reads list. Now it reads like malus is trying to over inflate the depth of his own reads.
Okay I'll go into more detail about the stats:
First all posted ranked lists are mapped to a range from 0 to 1, because people on the list itself didn't include themselves. That way the top scum gets a score of 1 and the top town gets a score of 0 and all other entries a score inbetween. With that we have a list of values in the range [0, 1] for each name on Frans list, which is then plotted in a box plot sorted by median value (yellow line).
I guess that's fair. I'll try to get my thoughts in order and get a couple explanations out, but I'm currently not very much awake so it may not come across as comprehensible as I think it does.
Both KetKat and Turmoil are generally scum or only very lightly town read (seen in the graph based on the ranked lists). There were a few mentions of how no one was defending KetKat but all those still put her rather low on their lists (I guess I'm guilty of this as well). In fact the only one completely town reading KetKat was Pirate Bae, whom I had an iffy feeling about anyway and it looked to me like she was trying to capitalize on a mislynch there.
If Pirate Bae flipped scum I would feel better about Chuggs and probably also about KetKat. I would look into people who kind of town read her but not very committed, such as Sawneeks or Faddy. A town flip would make me look into Zubz or Fireblend who had her as kind of scum but not very committed.
But this whole thing is moot now anyway with the role claim. So if Fran doesn't use the override I hope people who haven't voted yet go for Flux now.
And finally we get to malus post-Bae claim pushing for...Flux's lynch. Not turmoil who was second on his scum list from Fran that he cared enough to talk up after his Bae vote. Yes, Flux was not on that list to rank so it's possible turmoil was just slotted behind Flux in his reads, but I still find it to be a note of mild concern.
Overall I came away from malus feeling pretty bad - he's definitely in my scum list at this point. Curious to hear what his thoughts on CeeCee are now, as well as if he actually starts making any pushes today beyond what he has so far. I'll go ahead and put a vote here:
VOTE: malus
