So the Bae conspiracy goes something like this:
Bae/malus doubled down on the fake claim from Mafiera - because who would ever doubt it, right, after the initial "no way!" - and then faked a green check on Ab/Fat, because no one would ever fake a green check on a scummate.
Alternate: all of the above except the fake green check is on a town team, which is more standard.
So there are actually several points in favor of this theory:
- The claim was a save to avoid d1 kill
- Bae was similarly cagey as in Mafiera, slowly unspooling bits of the claim and result
- Bae has been a nonpresence with regard to reads and other contributions
- Bae for some reason revealed they were one-shot, which removes even the reason to kill confirmed town until mid-late game, since they aren't doing much
- malus same until the last 12 hours or so
- If we are moving with the Ab-also-scum version, he's also a nonentity this phase.
- Fran was pretty down on Bae's claim and then was NKed, which would make sense in this world because if Fran gets an idea in his head, he's not letting go.
Then Flux says: all the dead people so far were on the Tybro vote! (to complicate: all the other involved parties in this conspiracy were on the Katsune vote).
If the full version is true, then probably 2/3 at least of scum stacked on Katsune. In this scenario, Kyan (and thus donna) would probably also be scum and that would be Kyan's freeze; he knew it would look bad if he could avoid a tie but didn't but he didn't want to full stack on Katsune. donna would stay behind on PB and malus to help sell it/hide.
I think this is all viable. It's also a big reach. It's not a risk for reward; it's risking outing the entire scum team if any one piece flips scum. If the Kyan/donna addition is wrong, then it still risks outing two scum teams. (My guess is 3-4 or 3 and a neutral).
I don't think I buy it. I think:
Just PB+malus scum is more likely than PB+malus+Ty(Fat)bro, though if all four are scum the chances of Kyan+donna also rise. But I think that latter is a wild outlier scenario. It's not unheard of for the team to fuck up on that scale, but it would be something to see.
I would also think if they were going to end up moving as a big block even a little on purpose, they wouldn't have removed Katsune. I think they'd have targeted someone else. So that kinda sticks for me.
So I don't think this is the case, really - but I wanted to write it all out since there are so many people who seem to be entertaining it, at least a little, because hell, we might as well.
