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Love Boat 3 Mafia |OT| This time it's Bearsonal
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
Sorry, dude. Never had a reason to in any game.
OMG let's talk about this postgame because I continue to struggle with the data question. But postgame so it doesn't impact reads or take up space.
while you do your reviewing, what are your null boats that you're reviewing?
I'd marked at least 10 other posts to comment on during catch-up, but I'll just trim the fat. Still splitting it into more than one post.
Bae, can you give us something regarding why you so strongly believe that the thieves are town? Was it something they said in the overnight chat? Were you already townreading them before the fact? What?
Also - did they ask you who you were probably going to check overnight?
I understand being wary about how the claim went down while it was an ongoing thing, but at this point going on and on about this honestly seems like being suspicious of something just for the sake of it.
This is a cool role, Bear.
Bae, can you give us something regarding why you so strongly believe that the thieves are town? Was it something they said in the overnight chat? Were you already townreading them before the fact? What?
Also - did they ask you who you were probably going to check overnight?
I've seen your many posts on this, but I'll just quote this one. What's the angle here for scum!Bae? How does delaying the green check reveal benefit her as potential scum player?
I understand being wary about how the claim went down while it was an ongoing thing, but at this point going on and on about this honestly seems like being suspicious of something just for the sake of it.
I'm drawing a blank when trying to understand these suggestions that a pair wouldn't know how their own power worked.
Was casting doubt on Bae the strategy scum decided on overnight, rac?
How do you mean? There's a clear line in that post following the thread that Monkey tried to dismiss the fact that Stu and her clearly were very afraid of being lynched on D1 after the train deflated.
Yes.
rac/VA, stan/FEP, and kyan/donna. If time allows reki/xbro but I'm less concerned there compared to my boat buddy.
Too lazy to trim this but to the first point that quoted me - I was saying the theoretical scum thieves wouldn't know what limitations exist on Bae's role, not their own.
To the second point - I followed that bit, I more meant do you make anything of the votes on Dr. Stu suddenly dispersing? Not in relation to Dr. Stu but in relation to the players on said vote.
Brazil, we have seen people in recent games who didn't understand their roles. It happens. That's where that comes from.
There's no reason to know whether or not that's true here, though, so I don't want to paint it as likely, just possible. We really don't know much at all though in terms of mechanics and that's why I'm hesitant to say anything definite on that power. Maybe more so than most because I was the silencer in LB2.
There's no reason to know whether or not that's true here, though, so I don't want to paint it as likely, just possible. We really don't know much at all though in terms of mechanics and that's why I'm hesitant to say anything definite on that power. Maybe more so than most because I was the silencer in LB2.
This is a better way to also get across what I was trying to express earlier, if it means anything to Terra. "Pointless" was definitely the wrong word, I didn't mean to imply anything personal about that.
And we were not clearly afraid, ffs. We were pissed off. I'm kissed off now not because people are scumreading us but because this releated line is such a garbage take. I'm pretty over this whole "omg x is panicking!" at any reaction someone has. Natiko did it to Z-Beat earlier and it was garbage there too, regardless of anyone involved's alignment.
We would rather not be voted out, obviously. It ain't no great loss if we are. I'm not coming back to that nonsense again.
We would rather not be voted out, obviously. It ain't no great loss if we are. I'm not coming back to that nonsense again.
I probably wouldn't kill Fandorin on N1 as scum even if he was a cop who outright said he was going to check me.
Huh. And does that tell you something right now? Why did you bring it up? Haha.
It's weird that you came up with this line when I directly addressed it in that post. You "stayed" on the B-Dubs/Sorian vote for only a few minutes, but you continued to echo the same argument behind it throughout the entire phase.
Getting overwhelmed by accusations and ending up having to defend yourself constantly can happen to everyone regardless of alignment, yeah.
The point there was that you spent D1 mostly defending yourself while accusing B-Dubs of doing the same.
So is that how you would call yours' and Stu's D1? A hour-one clown show? That's pretty dramatic, as not even I would put it that way.
Anyone can fuck up. I don't know what to tell you there.
The rest of it is not whatever, though. That D1 is still a smudge that exists in your play. When you were under pressure, you and Stu reacted very badly. It's a fact that you've improved since then, but you did so after that pressure went away and you had a phase to recollect.
I'm feeling way better about you today than I did when I typed that post, that's for sure. The neverending back and forth between you and Sorian today, however, is so damn noisy it's really hard to grasp much from, even though I read through all of it in one go (or maybe because of it).
I did find it a little funny that you suggested just recently that others are pushing today to be a fake thunderdome between you and Sorian when both of you seem physically unable to disengage from an argument with the other, ever.
You don't get to decide that, sorry.
Also, it's curious that you didn't even touch on my big post on Monkey, even though most of your activity in this game consists of posts in which you're snide at accusations thrown your way, and even though you actively asked me about what I had in mind about Monkey when I mentioned suspicions.
I guess this late post does fit the same "This argument is below me so I'll just handwave it away" shtick of yours that somehow persisted from the first few hours of D1.
You know, when I saw this post, I actually laughed a little. Here, I'll let you in a secret:
Dr. Monkey is on my list of scum reads.
All game, Dr. Monkey has been casually listing me as a town read without much explanation or justification. It has been making me wary that Dr. Monkey has been trying to win my trust.
There is also something about the interactions between Sorian and Dr. Monkey that feels forced or artificial. Take the discussion about the gossipers, for example. It seems like both sides are commited to disagreement and argument even when they apparently agree on major things.
It feels like a really dedicated bussing strategy.
I'm not saying anyone's pushing for a fake thunderdome. If anything we and Sorian are. And I said I'm fine with it. If that many people scumread us then vote us out and use the results to weigh what we've said.
Brazil Goes back to the transparency bit I harped on. Waiting to claim gives her more time to fold the narrative to her liking. I guess that would entail hearing more from the gossip pair themselves if they exist, but for all we know scum!Bae could have still been faking her claimed target and/or the resulting scan to fit whatever narrative she wanted to form. After all, if she was taken from her chat, she couldn't speak to her partner over night which could result in her scrambling to come up with something. Hell, as far as I can tell, without an actual gossip pair to confirm, she and her partner could be making this up for all we know. I don't see why else she couldn't just say what she did about "not wanting them nk'd" earlier.
Tl;dr the potential outcomes I see are:
1. town!Bae is telling the truth and just wasn't being transparent for whatever reasons she may have.
2. scum!Bae is telling the truth about being gossiped, but had to come up with a response earlier on the fly since she couldn't contact her partner over night. Currently standing without a gossip pair to verify, there's a lot of room for her to claim what she wants. And even if they were to verify, I'm assuming the gossip would have been broken off before she could tell them the scan reading which would make for further wiggle room.
3. scum!Bae is lying about being gossiped and god knows what happened with the scan if it even exists.
So at the end of the day, we're taking her and malus's word for their actions. Hence why I pressed Bae because I don't want to blindly rely on someone's claimed actions, particularly when I was already skeptical.
Tl;dr the potential outcomes I see are:
1. town!Bae is telling the truth and just wasn't being transparent for whatever reasons she may have.
2. scum!Bae is telling the truth about being gossiped, but had to come up with a response earlier on the fly since she couldn't contact her partner over night. Currently standing without a gossip pair to verify, there's a lot of room for her to claim what she wants. And even if they were to verify, I'm assuming the gossip would have been broken off before she could tell them the scan reading which would make for further wiggle room.
3. scum!Bae is lying about being gossiped and god knows what happened with the scan if it even exists.
So at the end of the day, we're taking her and malus's word for their actions. Hence why I pressed Bae because I don't want to blindly rely on someone's claimed actions, particularly when I was already skeptical.
In addition to reading my post above, I want to remind you of this post I made directed towards you.
I would point out that Monkey's actions haven't actually changed all that much from D1. On D1 she pushed me, that didn't work, so now she's pushing Sorian (who is my partner). And now when I gave her something to work with she moves back to me.
It's bringing attention to a chat of two people making a ton of posts between the two of them.
I don't know why, but your post made me think of it.
I do get to decide that it's quite frankly BS if you can only use a flimsy BS argument from the first few hours of D1 as reasons for scum reading. It means you have nothing solid and are just hoping something else comes along while banging the same old tired drumbeat.
And yes, it was and still is a BS argument.
That sound in the distance, the heaving and rolling - it is the biggest sigh.
re: drunk-posting chuggs:
Let me explain something.
Most people are town. When I start assessing, I work from that assumption. Most people are town. If anything they do at all moves the needle to town for me, I put them townside. If they don't consistently move the needle, they may be light town or null. But unless someone does something I find sketch, I don't move them to scum side.
People do all sorts of sketch shit in mafia. So then you figure out how to read the sketch shit and sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong, but generally, my pool of "these people are less likely to be scum" is larger than my pool of "these are the people today based on current evidence I am considering as scum" because that's just how shit works.
It's impossible not to feel better about Monkey today. Her style clashes violently with mine in some of her posts still, but that's nothing new. So you have situations like Sorian's "Reki is the thief" vote thing, which she made some weird comments about along the way, but that I believe she handled more gracefully than Sorian himself.
Due to my own preconceived notions about the two pairs, and also due to how the discourse has been going on lately, I can't avoid trying to weigh those two in a balance. And Sorian seems too antsy in this game - more than he usually is. It's rare for him to have to back down from one of his #SorianGuesses in the same phase as when it was originally made.
I wish Geno was here, as I'd made a mental note that he looked good to me on D1, but forgot which post of his actually triggered that. It felt like a good read at the moment, too, but by now it's slipping through my fingers.
I feel good about Xbro and yourself, as the way you worked out your suspicions of Ty on D1 felt organically while most of the thread was focused on two or three main things and wouldn't stray too far from them.
The "letter" thing is the oldest trick in Coolest's book, so I'm heavily side-eyeing that pair, but it's also something that needs time to be resolved.
My biggest "pending" suspicions are the rac/VA and SkyOdin/Chuggs pairs. I've noted down a couple of things about them, but haven't had the time to look deeper or to properly connect the dots.
I asked you a question about the Baelus claim above, but at this point the claim itself seems like a done deal to me. I'm more interested in why Bae is sticking up for the thieves.
You haven't voted all game. You didn't even vote here.
You didn't chase the leads you hypothesized.
You haven't done any exploration of the game state.
You chased a check. That was your work for today. You chased a check and posted about the check and the situation around the check.
First cast out the beam out of thine own eye. You're howling in this post.
Geno looks very town. Unfortunately though he's not doing anything with that at all.
if you really doubt me that much help me lunch bae malus
if they aren't scum lunch me tomorrow
again, why still on bae? No one is going to lunch her. not now, probably not tomorrow either.
Well, rac/VA are done. rac kind of saves the group, because VA's reluctance to really produce any reads or take a stand had me feeling pretty iffy as I worked through the posts. Stuff like:
The exchange that helps pull them into a slight town lean is from D1 between VA and rac:
It's meandering and sort of hems and haws about whether he didn't want to pick because it might cause a tie or his vote not mattering in the end (despite the vote actually being fairly close at the end).
The exchange that helps pull them into a slight town lean is from D1 between VA and rac:
This feels like a natural exchange referencing work rac had shared in their private chat. I find it more likely that town rac with a sick boat mate who is struggling to keep up with the thread would provide some (gasp) actual reasoning and investigation to them than I do a scum rac with x amount of teammates doing so when there would be multiple other players to help VA along. It's not a huge moment, but it was the biggest thing that stuck out to me.
OP
OP
NOTE:
I'll be absent for most of today (Tuesday) due to exams. Most of that time will be when America is asleep, but in urgent cases please contact other gamerunners (Pedro, RetroMG, Fireblend or Captain Nuevo). I'll be back before day ends.
I'll be absent for most of today (Tuesday) due to exams. Most of that time will be when America is asleep, but in urgent cases please contact other gamerunners (Pedro, RetroMG, Fireblend or Captain Nuevo). I'll be back before day ends.
OP
OP
==== DAY 2 VOTES ====
Day Start
B-Dubs & Sorian (5 votes)
Dr. Monkey - #2,456
Stuart444 - #1,860
Terraforce - #1,963
SkyOdin - #2,421
TheChuggernaut - #2,436
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (2 votes)
Geno - #1,782
Sorian - #1,826 #2,134
Sorian - #2,257
Pirate Bae & malus (1 votes)
rac - #2,255
Natiko & Terraforce (1 votes)
Fantomas - #1,995
CoolestSpot & Z-Beat (1 votes)
Stuart444 - #1,787 #1,860
Natiko - #2,387
Reki & Xbro (0 votes)
Sorian - #2,134 #2,257
absolutbro & Ty4on (0 votes)
Natiko - #1,778 #2,089
Not voting: FluxWaveZ, CoolestSpot, Xbro, B-Dubs, empressdonna, flatearthpandas, Reki, absolutbro, Vincent Alexander, Ty4on, Kyanrute, Brazil, Funky Dude Sparks, Verelios, Apollo, Pirate Bae, Stantastic, Z-Beat, Zippedpinhead, malus
Post Counts:
Stuart444: 89 Sorian: 79 Dr. Monkey: 77 Fantomas: 60 Terraforce: 45 Natiko: 43 CoolestSpot: 33 Z-Beat: 32 Pirate Bae: 30 TheChuggernaut: 29 rac: 24 Brazil: 22 FluxWaveZ: 20 Verelios: 20 Vincent Alexander: 20 Funky Dude Sparks: 16 absolutbro: 15 Kyanrute: 15 flatearthpandas: 14 Geno: 11 B-Dubs: 10 SkyOdin: 10 Xbro: 8 empressdonna: 8 Reki: 8 Apollo: 7 Zippedpinhead: 5 malus: 3 Stantastic: 3
Current Countdown:
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
Day Start
B-Dubs & Sorian (5 votes)
Dr. Monkey - #2,456
Stuart444 - #1,860
Terraforce - #1,963
SkyOdin - #2,421
TheChuggernaut - #2,436
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (2 votes)
Geno - #1,782
Sorian - #2,257
Pirate Bae & malus (1 votes)
rac - #2,255
Natiko & Terraforce (1 votes)
Fantomas - #1,995
CoolestSpot & Z-Beat (1 votes)
Natiko - #2,387
Reki & Xbro (0 votes)
absolutbro & Ty4on (0 votes)
Not voting: FluxWaveZ, CoolestSpot, Xbro, B-Dubs, empressdonna, flatearthpandas, Reki, absolutbro, Vincent Alexander, Ty4on, Kyanrute, Brazil, Funky Dude Sparks, Verelios, Apollo, Pirate Bae, Stantastic, Z-Beat, Zippedpinhead, malus
Post Counts:
Stuart444: 89 Sorian: 79 Dr. Monkey: 77 Fantomas: 60 Terraforce: 45 Natiko: 43 CoolestSpot: 33 Z-Beat: 32 Pirate Bae: 30 TheChuggernaut: 29 rac: 24 Brazil: 22 FluxWaveZ: 20 Verelios: 20 Vincent Alexander: 20 Funky Dude Sparks: 16 absolutbro: 15 Kyanrute: 15 flatearthpandas: 14 Geno: 11 B-Dubs: 10 SkyOdin: 10 Xbro: 8 empressdonna: 8 Reki: 8 Apollo: 7 Zippedpinhead: 5 malus: 3 Stantastic: 3
Current Countdown:
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
I actually haven't looked into that. I read back by ISOing Monkey's posts, so that wasn't my focus. But I should definitely do it.
It seems to me that the more likely scenario is the one covered by the thieves' chat existence - she didn't want to reveal all of it without passing it by Malus first.
I hadn't really considered the second one, though, so that's fair.
Her demeanor is and the way she's going about things is different. But you don't need to point out that her focus hasn't strayed too far from where it already was - that's pretty clear.
Here's the problem: you treat all suspicion as acts of aggression, even though you don't know the alignment of the people suspecting you. Instead of engaging with arguments, you just whine about them. Not only does that not help other townies figure you out, it also makes them less likely to back down from you.
My argument was framed as an analysis of D1 from the get-go. It's not a "tired old D1 argument" - it's an argument that arose overnight after D1 in hindsight. You don't get to put up an arbitrary barrier that says you don't need to engage with arguments because they're referencing the previous phase. Your alignment is still the same today as it was on D1.
If you're actually town, you're not helping anyone with this shit. Certainly not your partner.
I'm asking for arguments that involve today. Not just yesterday. If nothing I've posted today has made me look any better or worse then it';s just to me, urgh. whatever really.