In Post #1351 the currently pertinent vote leaders were:
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (4 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Fran -
#275
Sorian -
#356
Pirate Bae & malus (4 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Dr. Monkey -
#1,281
Kyanrute -
#1,345
absolutbro & Ty4on (2 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (2 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Stan and Xbro come in and vote Ty4on awhile later to move it to a three way tie:
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (4 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Fran -
#275
Sorian -
#356
Pirate Bae & malus (4 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Dr. Monkey -
#1,281
Kyanrute -
#1,345
absolutbro & Ty4on (4 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Stantastic - #1407
Xbro - #1410
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (2 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Next Dr. Monkey moves her vote to Kalor. This is of some interest because it provides more theoretically viable wagons at a time she shared the vote lead, but had she wanted she actually could have defensively pushed Tybro into the lead had she chose.
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (4 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Fran -
#275
Sorian -
#356
absolutbro & Ty4on (4 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Stantastic - #1407
Xbro - #1410
Pirate Bae & malus (3 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Kyanrute -
#1,345
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (3 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Dr. Monkey - #1418
Z-Beat comes in with a throwaway vote. Malus, Coolest, and Pirate Bae then vote for Kalor in quick succession. Pirate Bae and Malus had previously committed to voting together so it's not a surprise, though Coolest joining in was out of left field. Of note - none of these votes shifted off of a different leading wagon.
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (6 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Dr. Monkey - #1418
Malus - #1430
CoolestSpot - #1445
Pirate Bae - #1448
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (4 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Fran -
#275
Sorian -
#356
absolutbro & Ty4on (4 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Stantastic - #1407
Xbro - #1410
Pirate Bae & malus (3 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Kyanrute -
#1,345
Then a quick glut of Ty4on and Pirate Bae votes push up as well. Again, these are mostly votes that are joining the leading wagons as opposed to leaving one. The one exception is Fran, but I don't think I find the interactions between Fran and Monkey to feel fake in a way that it could be s/s so I don't find that concerning personally. AB finally votes, but it's a throwaway off wagon vote on Brazil.
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (6 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Dr. Monkey - #1418
Malus - #1430
CoolestSpot - #1445
Pirate Bae - #1448
absolutbro & Ty4on (6 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Stantastic - #1407
Xbro - #1410
Fantomas - #1451
Fandorin - #1452
Pirate Bae & malus (6 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Kyanrute -
#1,345
Fran - #1453
empressdonna - #1456
rac - #1461
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (3 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Sorian -
#356
Then the final flurry of votes come in with Sorian and Kalor both voting off wagons, then VA coming in to push Bae ahead. Some time later SkyOdin also votes off wagon.
Pirate Bae & malus (7 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Kyanrute -
#1,345
Fran - #1453
empressdonna - #1456
rac - #1461
Vincent Alexander - #1481
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (6 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Dr. Monkey - #1418
Malus - #1430
CoolestSpot - #1445
Pirate Bae - #1448
absolutbro & Ty4on (6 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Stantastic - #1407
Xbro - #1410
Fantomas - #1451
Fandorin - #1452
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (3 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Sorian -
#356
And since I started making this post Brazil has now voted Tybro as well.
Pirate Bae & malus (7 votes)
Natiko -
#1,026
TheChuggernaut -
#1,251
Kyanrute -
#1,345
Fran - #1453
empressdonna - #1456
rac - #1461
Vincent Alexander - #1481
absolutbro & Ty4on (7 votes)
Kitsunelaine -
#1,289
Terraforce -
#944
Stantastic - #1407
Xbro - #1410
Fantomas - #1451
Fandorin - #1452
Brazil - #1566
Kitsunelaine & Kalor (6 votes)
flatearthpandas -
#365
FluxWaveZ -
#1,318
Dr. Monkey - #1418
Malus - #1430
CoolestSpot - #1445
Pirate Bae - #1448
Stuart444 & Dr. Monkey (3 votes)
Geno -
#729
Funky Dude Sparks -
#1,113
Sorian -
#356
Final thoughts - overall it wasn't actually as sketchy as it looked when just seeing all the votes fly in. While it's weird to see a quick push of one player up to a tie with others, when you account for pairs voting together that big push suddenly doesn't look as big. Additionally there was actually very little movement between the wagons themselves to indicate someone trying to transition off of a scummate onto a townie.
Now that being said, not everything looks great. The tossaway votes don't look good if those stick, especially from players like Sorian that know there's useful data in seeing players 'pick a side' during ties/near ties.
I think at this point flipping Pirate Bae/Malus will give us the most useful information. There's a brief delay between Ty taking the lead and a couple Bae votes rolling in (rac and donna). Then Bae takes the lead and we get the Brazil vote to force a tie again. Additionally it gives us some info about the kits wagon even with Bae and Malus both pushing that as a counter to themselves. I'll likely leave my vote unless I need to break ties.