Let's predict: How long, if ever, until we have fully immersive VR simulations (ex. Ready Player One/Black Mirror/The Matrix)

[Maligna]

How long, if ever, do you think it will be before we have immersive VR experiences that are sufficient to completely fool our brains? I'm talking stuff like Ready Player One, the Matrix and certain episodes of Black Mirror like San Junipero, USS Callister and Fighting Vipers.

Originally when I started writing this post, I got deep right off the bat. But I realized a lot of people probably don't feel like getting into the weeds of the ramifications of this topic and want to discuss it on the basis of tech alone. For those folks, feel free to go straight into the poll.

However, if you want to psycho-analyse me on why I care so much about this topic, click the spoiler.

Spoiler

I don't know about you all, but one of the reasons I've always been obsessed with video games is the opportunity to escape reality.

Basically, I've never been free to be who I want to be or to have the life I'd like to live, in the world I want to live in. Short of a wish from a magic genie, I'll never have the life I truly want. And as time goes by I get more and more depressed and become fixated on that fact, so much so that most of my waking hours are taken up by day dreaming about being someone else, someplace else.

I find that it's really starting to affect my ability to socialize. I find myself being even more withdrawn than I used to be, even in a room full of people. Basically all I feel like doing is waiting around for enough time to pass for my VR dreams to come true so that I can escape being me.

Signed, future VR simulation addict.

 

[Sampson]

Cloud gaming will give you photorealistic graphics in the not too distant future, but I think the haptics are further off.

 

[Revali]

Unless we unlock the key to immortality soon, I doubt anyone alive today will ever experience "full" VR.

 

[Radium217]

Visuals - around 10-15.
Physical simulation 30-50

 

[Vulcano's Assistant]

Fully immersive to the point you can't tell are probably going to be illegal except for some secret military base where they use it to get information out of prisoners

 

[Stat]

30-50 years, closer to 50 than 30.

VR is still not mainstream. It'll need to be mainstream first and much smaller (almost glasses)

 

[Herb Alpert]

Mainstream ? The full experience at home ?
Not before a looooong time imo

Efit: 2 or 3 generations to wait, so 40-60 years maybe, people will have to accept implants

 

[Jakenbakin]

I can't imagine the technology would be feasible for decades, and then I can't imagine the cost benefit would be feasible at any point. I think it's sci-fi. Fun though.

 

[catswaller]

science fiction. Things will continue to look really really good, and improve at a very fast rate, but there's an infinite distance between "real" and "good looking"

projeting how realistic games will be in the future is the other side of the "wow, games can't look any more real than this" coin. your imagination is filling in a lot of blanks about the obstacles out there to true realism.

 

[Deleted member 8468]

There's a mod for GTA5 that allows you to play in VR, and it's the closest thing yet. Obviously the fidelity and controls aren't made for VR, but the ability to play first person and explore the huge area is kind of amazing. If it allowed for GTA online play I'd say it's at least part of the way there.

The Oasis as it's described in RP1? I don't think that will ever happen. VR chat allows player avatars and such and it's kind of chaos, I can't see a major developer allowing something like that.

 

[mutantmagnet]

It depends on what you mean by fully immersive.

You gave examples but people will still quanitify experiences that are less than ideal than those.

I think I will be alive long enough to experience VR that can accept brainwave inputs but I strongly suspect that it will be so basic the level of control will still feel inferior to more expensive set ups that use cameras or exoframe attachments to track movements.

Such devices would feel like you are using a 4 direction only Dpad while the other tech would feel like you are using an analog stick.

Such limitations isn't good enough to be fully immersive to me even though technically speaking it is.

 

[PunishedPrince]

I wonder if SAO full dive VR will ever be possible

 

[Alucardx23]

How long, if ever, do you think it will be before we have immersive VR experiences that are sufficient to completely fool our brains? I'm talking stuff like Ready Player One, the Matrix and certain episodes of Black Mirror like San Junipero, USS Callister and Fighting Vipers.

Originally when I started writing this post, I got deep right off the bat. But I realized a lot of people probably don't feel like getting into the weeds of the ramifications of this topic and want to discuss it on the basis of tech alone. For those folks, feel free to go straight into the poll.

However, if you want to psycho-analyse me on why I care so much about this topic, click the spoiler.

Spoiler

I don't know about you all, but one of the reasons I've always been obsessed with video games is the opportunity to escape reality.

Basically, I've never been free to be who I want to be or to have the life I'd like to live, in the world I want to live in. Short of a wish from a magic genie, I'll never have the life I truly want. And as time goes by I get more and more depressed and become fixated on that fact, so much so that most of my waking hours are taken up by day dreaming about being someone else, someplace else.

I find that it's really starting to affect my ability to socialize. I find myself being even more withdrawn than I used to be, even in a room full of people. Basically all I feel like doing is waiting around for enough time to pass for my VR dreams to come true so that I can escape being me.

Signed, future VR simulation addict.

Click to shrink...

This is where I understand we are at right now. If you want the Matrix you need a technology that communicates and interacts with the neurons in your brain and this is what Neuralink is trying to do.

 

[Temascos]

The cost factor and development of worlds is going to be a huge thing that affects how these types of games turn out. Plus there are senses such as smell and touch which aren't going to be fully realised for a while.

Resolution and detail in itself will progress as it has done, but would it be worthwhile for companies cost-wise? Only a select few companies could realistically go that route.

 

[BizzyBum]

I want to say within my lifetime because that would be awesome, but probably not until like the year 2100 or so. It's 2020 and the best we have so far is VR Chat. We have a long way to go.

When it does happen and is practical for the masses is when society will crumble, as well. lol

 

[Hanbei]

2060 at the earliest.

 

[Alek]

There's a mod for GTA5 that allows you to play in VR, and it's the closest thing yet. Obviously the fidelity and controls aren't made for VR, but the ability to play first person and explore the huge area is kind of amazing. If it allowed for GTA online play I'd say it's at least part of the way there.

The Oasis as it's described in RP1? I don't think that will ever happen. VR chat allows player avatars and such and it's kind of chaos, I can't see a major developer allowing something like that.

Click to shrink...

If the demand is there, whoever does it first will become a major developer.

 

[Weltall Zero]

People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years.

I don't think VR is any different, especially considering how young it is right now. VR in 15 years will probably feel like sci-fi to our current selves; I think we have a good shot at achieving full visual fooling in 30-50 years. Haptics seem like the biggest barrier because the mechanical technology involved advances at a much smaller rate than the technology behind screens and visual rendering.

Incidentally, people saying "it needs to be adopted into the mainstream first" are putting the cart before the horse. Technological maturity is what leads widespread adoption, not the other way around.

 

[Maligna]

There's a mod for GTA5 that allows you to play in VR, and it's the closest thing yet. Obviously the fidelity and controls aren't made for VR, but the ability to play first person and explore the huge area is kind of amazing. If it allowed for GTA online play I'd say it's at least part of the way there.

Click to shrink...

Sounds great. I often wish I could experience being my GTA Online character. But yeah, modern VR still leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[litebrite]

It's the ultimate end game that VR will eventually reach and likely will be the dominate form of interactive media. We're at least decades from it though.

I can also imagine a billion dollar funded VR game to create this experience.

 

[Nessii013]

How long, if ever, do you think it will be before we have immersive VR experiences that are sufficient to completely fool our brains? I'm talking stuff like Ready Player One, the Matrix and certain episodes of Black Mirror like San Junipero, USS Callister and Fighting Vipers.

Originally when I started writing this post, I got deep right off the bat. But I realized a lot of people probably don't feel like getting into the weeds of the ramifications of this topic and want to discuss it on the basis of tech alone. For those folks, feel free to go straight into the poll.

However, if you want to psycho-analyse me on why I care so much about this topic, click the spoiler.

Spoiler

I don't know about you all, but one of the reasons I've always been obsessed with video games is the opportunity to escape reality.

Basically, I've never been free to be who I want to be or to have the life I'd like to live, in the world I want to live in. Short of a wish from a magic genie, I'll never have the life I truly want. And as time goes by I get more and more depressed and become fixated on that fact, so much so that most of my waking hours are taken up by day dreaming about being someone else, someplace else.

I find that it's really starting to affect my ability to socialize. I find myself being even more withdrawn than I used to be, even in a room full of people. Basically all I feel like doing is waiting around for enough time to pass for my VR dreams to come true so that I can escape being me.

Signed, future VR simulation addict.

Click to shrink...

To do this realistically, we need to send electrical impulses to the brain/nervous system as well as control hormones. To do this with such fine-grained control will require pretty advanced medical technology that we're not quite close to yet.

Unless we have some significant technology renaissance to allow this, I can't see it being ready in less than 50 years.

We can definitely get to an approximation of this though. VR already feels different. Sometimes messes with my perception of reality. Looking at my real phone/hand after playing VR for a moderate period of time gives this really strange artificial world feeling

 

[Maligna]

This is where I understand we are at right now. If you want the Matrix you need a technology that communicates and interacts with the neurons in your brain and this is what Neuralink is trying to do.

Click to shrink...

Looks like interesting stuff. I hope they can unlock the secrets.

Ideally, the best VR would be the one like in Black Mirror, just the little transmitter attached to your temple.

Ready Player One with the headset and haptics is a bit cumbersome.

 

[ps3ud0]

We just don't have the knowledge of how the human brain works to allow ourselves to be duped enough where VR becomes reality.

I don't think it's technology that's the issue as fidelity is just a magnitude or two away. Full body immersion with touch and mobility isn't really either...

ps3ud0 8)

 

[Deleted member 2840]

Ready Player One VR? Soonish enough.
The other kinds of "VR"? Gonna take soooome time. That's on the level of brain interfacing, so it's not a matter of display technology or anything like that. Doing stuff like showing an image to a person through their brains and not their eyes is too much in the realm of science fiction

 

[LilScooby77]

Gonna say maybe by the year 3000.

 

[Maligna]

Ready Player One VR? Soonish enough.
The other kinds of "VR"? Gonna take soooome time. That's on the level of brain interfacing, so it's not a matter of display technology or anything like that. Doing stuff like showing an image to a person through their brains and not their eyes is too much in the realm of science fiction

Click to shrink...

That's true I suppose. That is a big difference.

The thing about Ready Player One VR though is that it's described in the book and depicted in the movie as feeling super realistic. I wonder if that level of fidelity is even possible with just headsets and haptics.

 

[Niosai]

I think this technology will be pushed forward by virtual work environments. Put people in a VR office where they can do remote work and collaborate with peers without having to be in the same physical location. However, Ready Player One (the book moreso) explored the negative ramifications of this very well. If we cultivate a virtual environment, we might neglect the real world/our real needs.

 

[Maligna]

If we cultivate a virtual environment, we might neglect the real world/our real needs.

Click to shrink...

I already know this would be my problem.

It's already a problem in the form of day dreaming.

 

[Andromeda]

Maybe we are already in the Matrix.

 

[Android Sophia]

Yeah, as others noted, we don't have enough knowledge of how our brains work for something like SAO Full Dive yet, let alone straight up The Matrix. That being said, the technology we DO have for VR is only going to get better and better so we might not need it anytime soon.

 

[balgajo]

I hope we jump directly to matrix instead and skip the lots of gadget level of ready player one. That are some researchs in the last few years that give me hope we will jump directly to matrix.

 

[Alucardx23]

Looks like interesting stuff. I hope they can unlock the secrets.

Ideally, the best VR would be the one like in Black Mirror, just the little transmitter attached to your temple.

Ready Player One with the headset and haptics is a bit cumbersome.

Click to shrink...

Long before we get to that point, we will get to a point where at least visually, VR will be indistinguishable from real life. With the way things are going it shouldn't take longer than 15 years.

 

[Android Sophia]

Long before we get to that point, we will get to a point where at least visually, VR will be indistinguishable from real life. With the way things are going it shouldn't take longer than 15 years.

Click to shrink...

Honestly, it's already kind of scary how realistic VR is. If it weren't for the occasional reminder of my space limitations (usually by bumping into the bed) I might forget. Already got super immersed in Gorn last night.

 

[Alucardx23]

Honestly, it's already kind of scary how realistic VR is. If it weren't for the occasional reminder of my space limitations (usually by bumping into the bed) I might forget. Already got super immersed in Gorn last night.

Click to shrink...

Definitely, the VR we have now is good enough to make you feel you're there. It will be crazy when we get to the point where the only way you will know if you are looking at something real or not is by the weight of the small glasses you will have on. After that the only way to go is to directly stimulate the neurons on the visual cortex.

 

[skeezx]

i think modern VR is about what you can expect, like playing an atari 2600 in the 1970s of course it will get a lot better but you've a general idea of what you're getting for 40+ years.

black mirror complete immersion stuff will probably be after our lifetime or involve a super society or whatever

 

[Deleted member 13645]

It depends on how long until we can interface our brains with computers. To fully immerse our senses it'd have to pretty much hook into our brains for the computer to make us experience what it wants, the same way our dreams can make us experience anything. I can see us being close in 50 years, especially if something like Neuralink pans out.

 

[Dad_and_Videogames]

I think that the endgame will be that we manipulate the user's brain to create this, as opposed to use a rig.

There's no way we'll completely fool the body unless we defeat how the body receives and interprets sensory data.

 

[Powerofthecloud]

Thursday

 

[FTF]

30-50 years seems about right. Hopefully I live that long to get to try it out.

 

[Potterson]

Never.

To feel as much freedom as people in such fiction, you would have to have unlimited space to play within.

 

[Dary]

Inventing a simulation indistinguishable from reality is the point we prove we're already living in one.

 

[Mr.Deadshot]

Never.

To feel as much freedom as people in such fiction, you would have to have unlimited space to play within.

Click to shrink...

Yeah it will never feel truly 1:1. You have to use some kind of treadmill for running or something you can hang it. It will not be the same feeling like the real world. Jumping and flying will be another problem. You will always have to do some strange pose for that to happen and it will never feel truly real.

Direkt brain interfaces like in the Matrix might realize that but who honestly wants to do that for a game? 🤔

And the development costs will be another huge problem. We still havent solved basic things like clipping errors, good AI, truly natural animations and transitions...

 

[Quample]

The Matrix-level VR basically matches the complexity of real life, so that one won't come for a really long time, way more than 50 years (unless we hit singularity in Kurzweil's prediction range, then who knows what will happen). I'd say we could reach Ready Player One VR in around 50 years, but some things will definitely be worse, and some things will probably be better.

 

[the-pi-guy]

Tech wise:

Ready Player One: actually used a lot of current tech in the film.
Some scenes were exaggerated, but most of it exists in a less refined form right now. Being available commercially is probably closer to 10-15 years.

Matrix: a lot harder to predict. It would require some major advancements in tech. If VR explodes there might be more investment to come sooner. But even still 50 years probably.

 

[Venatio]

I just want VR glasses that are the size and weight of sunglasses. How far away is that? 10 years?

 

[Quample]

Tech wise:

Ready Player One: actually used a lot of current tech in the film.
Some scenes were exaggerated, but most of it exists in a less refined form right now. Being available commercially is probably closer to 10-15 years.

Click to shrink...

But the way you move and interact with the world isn't even close to being available now. Sure, the omni-directional treadmill is how they supposedly move around, but in the actual virtual world they're doing much more complex movement that wouldn't really work on a treadmill like that. Same goes for interactions/physics. It's real life-levels in the movie. Games now are lucky to have basic physics.

 

[Dad_and_Videogames]

The folks saying that it'll be never because the confines of available space; if we effect the brain there are no limits, right?

The only time I've truly felt unmoored from reality is in a dream, so if VR is essentially a controllable lucid dream or something using the same mechanisms our brain uses to dream, that really seems like the only way to truly do indistinguishable virtual reality.

A second could seem like an eternity, we could feel whatever we're manipulate to feel.

Just spitballin'.

 

[Sectorseven]

I think the limitations are going to be more on the side of our understanding of neurology, brain chemistry and physically tapping into the necessary signals.

 

[copelandmaster]

RP1 is doable, with a bunch of abstraction between you and the content.

+Streamed wireless over a cellphone connection. Yes, even in a moving vehicle like the movie.
+Movement is already "done". It's not going to be with a treadmill, its the same amount of abstraction we've already seen the the games we currently play.
/Touch sensation can be emulated but there will be a significant amount of fudging.
-Smell is a hurdle. Nobody will want smell because it'll be an expensive hassle.
-Same thing with taste.

Don't wait for computers to interface with your brain. It's not realistic. Nobody is going to line up for causual brain surgery like (some) people line up for tattoos and piercings.

 

[Hyun Sai]

The answer is always nanomachines first.