OLS happened this weekend, one of the biggest semi-regular open bracket tourneys. Had 124 entrants so it's a decent sample size and while obviously a lot of people were playing new stuff it might give an idea of what to expect for this patch's meta. Here was the top 8 breakdown:
Thralls - 3
TF/Swain - 3
Feel The Rush - 2
Lee Sin - 2
Overwhelm - 2
Nasus - 2
Shen/J4 - 2 Nab - 1
Draven/Ezreal - 1
Taric/J4 - 1
Lurk - 1
Yeti's - 1
Pirates - 1
Endure - 1
Frostbite Midrange - 1
For new decks a lot of people brought Lurk and Ez Karma, so their combined one representative in top 8 is pretty bad and might be an indicator that they may not be a major player in the meta going forward. Karma lists are generally very difficult to pilot and they might have the right 40 cards given that they didn't know what to expect meta-wise so maybe it might get better in a more established meta. Lurkers on the other hand I'm a bit skeptical of, it feels like it's a highrolly aggro deck with the added issue of needing to both draw well and also often have to hit blind lurk triggers. People haven't settled on the proper list though, as some are running tons of predict and less of the bad lurkers, while others are maximizing lurkers to increase the chances of blind hits. There's also a bit more nuance to piloting it than it's maybe getting credit currently so it's possible it might go up in value or at the very least find its way into being a solid anti-meta deck.
The finals was Ez Draven/TF Swain/Thralls vs FTR/TF Swain/Thralls, with the list that had FTR taking the win overall. Going forward Thralls may just be the deck to beat, and Make it Rain is certainly a real card again. (Riptide was even in the winning decklist) As expected FJ/SI is still a very real region combination and while some people were experimenting with various Howling Abyss lists FTR did better, almost all the Howling Abyss decks had very different champ combos so similar to Cithria Matron it might be a while until a generally agreed upon "best" list is found and that list might potentially be as good or better than FTR. The big advantage Abyss has is that they don't have to run copies of FTR or Tryndamere and Trundle, plus the wincon doesn't get stopped by counterspells. So there's certainly some advantages that Abyss has although it's to be seen if those advantages end up winning out over the instant raw power of a resolved FTR. (Pls buff Warmother's Call)
Aside from those decks the meta was super open as people wanted to play new stuff which meant that less people were playing "good" decks, so decks like Thresh Nasus and Overwhelm are still likely very strong and will be big players in the meta going forward. Less so is probably Azir Irelia, whose win rate has tanked considerably post-patch despite a lot of unrefined and weaker decklists being played. (Now at 51% on ladder while Thresh Nasus has over 56%) Of the decks targeted by the nerfs, Thresh Nasus and Ez Draven are likely still pretty strong, (Ez Draven has to compete with TF Swain though which plays somewhat similarly) while TLC is completely dead and both Azir Irelia and Rubin Pile hurting a lot.