Leading biologist dampens his ‘smoking gun’ Covid lab leak theory

[Late Flag]

Because it's not a binary choice between those two options, you haven't seen me presenting the latter option at all, and it's rather obvious how "The Chinese are up to secret research creating bioweapons and their irresponsibility makes them to blame for the effects of the pandemic, up to and including the piss-poor handling of the pandemic by most major governments" is racist.

Click to shrink...

You're conflating "the virus escaped from a research lab" with "the virus was a secretly engineered bioweapon." The first is extremely plausible and has lots of circumstantial evidence to support it. The second is a crazy conspiracy theory that makes no sense at all.

 

[Min]

What expertise does Condoleezza Rice even has that is relevant here?
Lying to the American people?

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Yes Exactly that.

 

[GoldenFlex]

Shocking!

 

[Senator Toadstool]

too late. this is already "factually" the source of the virus for most of the west now.

it sucks

 

[Chikor]

For example, the guy who wrote the WSJ that kinda began to push this back into public view was Michael R. Gordon. If you research who that is, exactly, you find that he was a co-author along with Judith Miller of the infamous NYT article about how Iraq was supposedly using specific aluminum tubes to develop WMDs. The actual origin of that story is that the White House gave out that info to be used anonymously, and then after the article was published the White House used the article as if it was third-party evidence in support of their claims of Iraqi WMDs. He's 1,000,000% a hack and how anyone is continuing to employ him as a journalist is an example of the incredibly poor state of journalism in the US right now.

Click to shrink...

It really plays exactly like it did in the lead-up to the Iraq war, isn't it?
It always starts on the right, often in op-ed pages of publications with amazing low journalist standard, then a more respectable right wing outlets report on the reporting, and at that point the NYT can write articles discussion the controversy and you know, just asking questions.

It's even the same fucking people to a large degree.

 

[RROCKMAN]

Take his ability to perform legally in any official capacity away.

Asshat has contributed to ruining lives here

 

[LudicrousSpeed]

You're conflating "the virus escaped from a research lab" with "the virus was a secretly engineered bioweapon." The first is extremely plausible and has lots of circumstantial evidence to support it. The second is a crazy conspiracy theory that makes no sense at all.

Click to shrink...

The entire implication of the lab leak theory is to imply the latter and justify a crackdown on China. That's it.

To ignore that, you have to ignore every way in which the lab leak theory is discussed, and also the US political establishment's clear desire, in the form of both Trump and Biden, to blame this on China.

 

[Nobleman Swerve]

This whole shit show felt like the media's abject failure in covering the vaccine autism story sprinkled with Iraq war propoganda all rolled up into one.

 

[Late Flag]

The entire implication of the lab leak theory is to imply the latter and justify a crackdown on China. That's it.

To ignore that, you have to use every way in which the lab leak theory is discussed, and also the US political establishment's clear desire, in the form of both Trump and Biden, to blame this on China.

Click to shrink...

None of this stuff matters. If the virus jumped naturally from bats to pangolins to humans, then that's what happened regardless of what Trump or Biden say. If it escaped from WIV due to a lab error, that's what happened regardless of what Trump or Biden say. Their input is irrelevant -- the origin of the virus has already empirically happened.

We should all be a lot more interested in being right, and less interested in scoring ahistorical debating points.

 

[Chikor]

The entire implication of the lab leak theory is to imply the latter and justify a crackdown on China. That's it.

To ignore that, you have to ignore every way in which the lab leak theory is discussed, and also the US political establishment's clear desire, in the form of both Trump and Biden, to blame this on China.

Click to shrink...

Politicizing this issue is only going to make it harder for scientists to research it properly.
I'll bet you that if you ask any scientists working on this right now (and there are a ton I'm sure, they didn't need Biden to remind them that it's important to research the origin of covid) they'll tell you to keep politicians as far away from this as possible.

 

[Davidion]

Why is it sinophobic to think that Chinese researchers may have made a mistake in a lab while conducing cutting-edge infectious disease research, but it's acceptable to blame the pandemic on backwards peasants eating weird, revolting food in third-world open air markets? That seems exactly backwards.

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In addition to what other people have addressed here, intentional motive is used as a vehicle to blame a particular group as a malicious actor.

Yes, for most pushing it, it's a distraction from Trump's malicious handling of the outbreak.

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Don't forget attempting to add spice and substance to an otherwise insufficiently dramatic social/biological event to compensate for their uninteresting and delusional worldview.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

It really plays exactly like it did in the lead-up to the Iraq war, isn't it?
It always starts on the right, often in op-ed pages of publications with amazing low journalist standard, then a more respectable right wing outlets report on the reporting, and at that point the NYT can write articles discussion the controversy and you know, just asking questions.

It's even the same fucking people to a large degree.

Click to shrink...

this. I mentioned the iraq war in the original thread it's so damn predictable but people want to shit on the "ccp" (a term i hate) and will use other wise unrelated things to comment on their very real crimes. same thing we did with iraq, granada, soviet union, spanish cuba, etc etc

 

[Chikor]

"ccp" (a term i hate)

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This is a really minor point, but at some point someone will need to explain to me like I'm 5 why the US media insists on calling them that.

 

[lemonade]

It really plays exactly like it did in the lead-up to the Iraq war, isn't it?
It always starts on the right, often in op-ed pages of publications with amazing low journalist standard, then a more respectable right wing outlets report on the reporting, and at that point the NYT can write articles discussion the controversy and you know, just asking questions.

It's even the same fucking people to a large degree.

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You'd think people would have wised up since the Iraq WMD farce.

Unfortunately, people are dumb as fuck and still easily buy into the imperialist propaganda due to their inherent biases.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

This is a really minor point, but at some point someone will need to explain to me like I'm 5 why the US media insists on calling them that.

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i've expounded on this but it's a bullshit term to shit on china and pretend their not the legit government and excuse blatant sinophobia by hiding behind "i only hate the government! not the people" it's basically license to slander china and pin everything on their government (who isn't great!).

 

[Wackamole]

He will be quoted forever though. These people only take quotes that they can use.

 

[Baji Boxer]

Why is it sinophobic to think that Chinese researchers may have made a mistake in a lab while conducing cutting-edge infectious disease research, but it's acceptable to blame the pandemic on backwards peasants eating weird, revolting food in third-world open air markets? That seems exactly backwards.

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The "bat eating" theory people repeat is a warped version of how the virus originated with bats and was passed to humans.

My understanding from the earliest theories is that a lot of known early cases could be traced to a wildlife market, but they aren't aware of bats being sold there specifically. Instead they wanted to focus on what the intermediary animal was that bridged the virus from bats to humans. Apparently the way the wildlife markets are run make them prime candidates as natural virus incubators.

A big aspect of the Sinophobic version of the theory is also that bat eating and these markets is a cultural thing (so Chinese/Asian culture is to blame!). According to a humane society article I read before, the reality is that markets like this actually trace back mostly to the 80's when the Chinese govertment encouraged rural people to start their own businesses, and selling wildlife was one of the suggestions.

The Sinophobic bat eaters version was signal boosted by Fox News. Bat eating is rather rare, but some people do this, and that particular rare eating habit was signal boosted by a Chinese influencer who traveled somewhere to eat bat. Basically a domestic exotic food eating bit.

Right wingers fabricate a story merging details backed up with the influencer video and the Chinese government's usual uncooperative behaviour, then spread it to inflame anti-Asian sentiment to distract from Trump being a malicious murderous Fascist.

 

[Pet]

None of this stuff matters. If the virus jumped naturally from bats to pangolins to humans, then that's what happened regardless of what Trump or Biden say. If it escaped from WIV due to a lab error, that's what happened regardless of what Trump or Biden say. Their input is irrelevant -- the origin of the virus has already empirically happened.

We should all be a lot more interested in being right, and less interested in scoring ahistorical debating points.

Click to shrink...

You may be right in a vacuum, but it's about as useful as saying "we need to stop focusing so much on skin color, we're all the same and we should be color blind."

Like ideally, yes.

In reality, no.

 

[Chikor]

i've expounded on this but it's a bullshit term to shit on china and pretend their not the legit government and excuse blatant sinophobia by hiding behind "i only hate the government! not the people"

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I get that part, but can't you make the exact same bullshit arguments while calling them the CPC, which is the name they use?
I know it's not the biggest issue and the US media has a long history of *cough* unusual *cough* spelling on their foreign reporting, but it's really weird to me.

 

[Deleted member 82064]

It's not like these right wing grifters cared about science anyway. It's funny how confirmation bias works.

These idiots barely understand science, the scientiic method, the importance of peer review, and then they make proclamations on something that supports their narrative, instead of really looking at the science.

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tbh there wasn't much scientific method applied when Lancet released open letter signed some heavy hitters saying lab leak is conspiracy. Their letter didn't source any sort peer reviewed or even non-reviewed study. Variety had good article on the issue: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19's Origins

Too bad such issue has become pawn in politics and nationalistic games. Hopefully we will get answers some day. But all in all, this has placed dent in public trust towards various institutions.

admittedly, my belief started to vain about the lab leak soon as US intelligence started to deliver new "evidence".

 

[Serpens007]

You're conflating "the virus escaped from a research lab" with "the virus was a secretly engineered bioweapon." The first is extremely plausible and has lots of circumstantial evidence to support it. The second is a crazy conspiracy theory that makes no sense at all.

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But there isn't a lot of circumstantial evidence to support it either. There's just a lack of 100% proof of the natural origin, but the lab leak hypothesis is still the much less likely to be true. Basically a lab leak isn't imposible, but it's highly unlikely. We just need more evidence to be absolutely certain of which is correct

The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don't know (nature.com)

 

[Senator Toadstool]

I get that part, but can't you make the exact same bullshit arguments while calling them the CPC, which is the name they use?
I know it's not the biggest issue and the US media has a long history of *cough* unusual *cough* spelling on their foreign reporting, but it's really weird to me.

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oh yeah idk about the english naming conventions and why they don't use the party's official nomenclature. i guess laziness

 

[Yeeeeeeeeeer]

i havent been following this saga closely but yall dismissing the possibility that he was "spoken to firmly" to change his stance is disturbing. i already know america (and the rest of the western world) has been sliding down this slope of misgivings towards asians, chinese in particular, since the beginning of the pandemic and as an asian-american, i hate to see how much worse these sentiments can get.

however, people in the position of power can change the narrative whether it's for good or bad intentions. remember, the media and medical professionals LIED in the beginning of the pandemic saying mask WON'T help prevent contracting COVID19! LIED! one of my friends, who's way left, argued with me saying that masks were pointless because CNN/MSNBC pundits and featured doctors said so. i understand one of the reasons for spreading that message was to conserve masks which were in extremely limited supply at the time but don't treat the public as if they are stupid. wont be surprised if this whole dumb mask/no mask debate was started because of this confusion in the beginning

if this whole shit started in a lab, let the truth come out and levy HEAVY sanctions against the perpetrators even if it means your new fangled iphone will cost $5000 from now on

 

[ascagnel]

The "bat eating" theory people repeat is a warped version of how the virus originated with bats and was passed to humans.

My understanding from the earliest theories is that a lot of known early cases could be traced to a wildlife market, but they aren't aware of bats being sold there specifically. Instead they wanted to focus on what the intermediary animal was that bridged the virus from bats to humans. Apparently the way the wildlife markets are run make them prime candidates as natural virus incubators.

A big aspect of the Sinophobic version of the theory is also that bat eating and these markets is a cultural thing (so Chinese/Asian culture is to blame!). According to a humane society article I read before, the reality is that markets like this actually trace back mostly to the 80's when the Chinese govertment encouraged rural people to start their own businesses, and selling wildlife was one of the suggestions.

The Sinophobic bat eaters version was signal boosted by Fox News. Bat eating is rather rare, but some people do this, and that particular rare eating habit was signal boosted by a Chinese influencer who traveled somewhere to eat bat. Basically a domestic exotic food eating bit.

Right wingers fabricate a story merging details backed up with the influencer video and the Chinese government's usual uncooperative behaviour, then spread it to inflame anti-Asian sentiment to distract from Trump being a malicious murderous Fascist.

Click to shrink...

To add to this: "wet markets" aren't open air markets or places where you buy whatever meat you feel like -- the "wet" is because produce & various meats (the vast, vast majority of which are the type of food-stocks you'd find anywhere else around the world -- chicken, beef, pork, turkey, etc) travel through it frequently, so the floors are washed frequently as a sanitary precaution. They stand in contrast to "dry markets", where you buy dry, boxed goods.

A wet market is the outside of a supermarket, and a dry market is the aisles in the middle.

 

[The Albatross]

It's still not the most likely hypothesis*, it wasn't the most likely hypothesis* 2 months ago, it wasn't 2 weeks ago, and it isn't today, but you can't entirely rule it out. If you trust the science then you trust the science. And for the origins of this corinavirus, the science suggests it was probably natural spillover, but the science also can't rule out other theories/hypotheses, one of which was that this coronavirus could have originated in a lab (and then from there, there's also benevolent and malevolent theories).

Also I don't think it's true that *most* people think this coronavirus escaped from a lab. I also think the media has been pretty responsible with this reporting. For basically all of 2020 and most of 2021 the "lab leak theory" was widely dismissed and not given any air in the media, but after the statement from WHO scientists 2 weeks ago that it can't be ruled out, that got some play in the media and it should. I think the Slate's Political Gabfest panel was accurate, when they rightly described that the lab leak theory was verboten in the establishment media for most of 2020 and 2021, and even after some scientists came out and walked back a definitive dismissal of it, it's still not the predominant theory espoused by the establishment media or held by most informed people.

There's also the point that "the wet market theory" drips in as much racism as "the lab leak theory."


(* originally used "lab leak theory," changed to "hypothesis" and tried to be consistent where I'm calling it a theory vs. hypothesis, vs. quoting others using the word theory... might have some gaffes)

 

[Thordinson]

i havent been following this saga closely but yall dismissing the possibility that he was "spoken to firmly" to change his stance is disturbing. i already know america (and the rest of the western world) has been sliding down this slope of misgivings towards asians, chinese in particular, since the beginning of the pandemic and as an asian-american, i hate to see how much worse these sentiments can get.

however, people in the position of power can change the narrative whether it's for good or bad intentions. remember, the media and medical professionals LIED in the beginning of the pandemic saying mask WON'T help prevent contracting COVID19! LIED! one of my friends, who's way left, argued with me saying that masks were pointless because CNN/MSNBC pundits and featured doctors said so. i understand one of the reasons for spreading that message was to conserve masks which were in extremely limited supply at the time but don't treat the public as if they are stupid. wont be surprised if this whole dumb mask/no mask debate was started because of this confusion in the beginning

if this whole shit started in a lab, let the truth come out and levy HEAVY sanctions against the perpetrators even if it means your new fangled iphone will cost $5000 from now on

Click to shrink...

The same can be applied to the lab leak hypothesis. People in power might lie, as they did before the Iraq War, to drum up anti-China sentiment. It's far more likely to have a natural origin since all evidence points to that.

It's still not the most likely theory, it wasn't the most likely theory 2 months ago, it wasn't 2 weeks ago, and it isn't today, but you can't entirely rule it out. If you trust the science then you trust the science. And for the origins of COVID-19, the science suggests it was probably natural spillover, but the science also can't rule out other theories, one of which was that this coronavirus could have originated in a lab (and then from there, there's also benevolent and malevolent theories).

Click to shrink...

You mean hypothesis here instead of theory.

 

[Deleted member 82064]

Also I don't think it's true that *most* people think this coronavirus escaped from a lab. I also think the media has been pretty responsible with this reporting. For basically all of 2020 and most of 2021 the "lab leak theory" was widely dismissed and not given any air in the media, but after the statement from WHO scientists 2 weeks ago that it can't be ruled out, that got some play in the media and it should. I think the Slate's Political Gabfest panel was accurate, when they rightly described that the lab leak theory was verboten in the establishment media for most of 2020 and 2021, and even after some scientists came out and walked back a definitive dismissal of it, it's still not the predominant theory espoused by the establishment media or held by most informed people.

Click to shrink...

I think media has been doing bad job. They constantly called lab leak theory conspiracy and hammered people who talked about it (well, you can obviously skip the right wing crazies). When it was actually plausible scenario. Now we have WaPo and other outlets ninja editing some of their old articles and language presented in them. And that just gives all the right wing nutjobs more power when they spot edit or how media is only talking about the issue when Trump is gone.

 

[The Albatross]

You mean hypothesis here instead of theory.

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Yep good call, I'll update my post. The title, OP content, and article and almost all other posts all referred to it as "the lab leak theory" so I've just gotten used to calling it that. I'll work on being more careful

I think media has been doing bad job. They constantly called lab leak theory conspiracy and hammered people who talked about it. When it was actually plausible scenario. Now we have WaPo and other outlets ninja editing some of their old articles and language presented in them. And that just gives all the right wing nutjobs more power when they spot edit or how media is only talking about the issue when Trump is gone.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, that's true. In defending the media in that post I was mostly arguing against the idea that the media was suggesting this as the most probable theory/hypothesis for the origins of this coronavirus. At least, arguing against the idea that media outlets covering the resurgence of this hypothesis are necessarily doing the wrong thing by covering it.

During 2020, you're right media organizations basically attached any airing of this theory/hypothesis to sinophobia and racism, but It hink they were also following the rough scientific consensus which was averse to supporting Trump's xenophobic political messaging.

The science reporting was generally pretty bad on COVID, alarmist, rarely scoping risk to what they were publishing, eager to write a new big story whenever any non-peer-reviewed study would come out saying *anything,* and most outlets don't even really hire science journalists AND for the most part, the scientists themselves and academic journals also didn't have a good grasp on this virus and how to write/talk about it. This forum was also bad, reposting whatever story would get the most social attention in their feeds with little context.

 

[Haunted]

too late. this is already "factually" the source of the virus for most of the west now.

it sucks

Click to shrink...

???

I'd say it is still widely considered a conspiracy theory, except in certain circles (right-wing populism), where... it's also a conspiracy theory, but they do believe those.

 

[Lishi]

???

I'd say it is still widely considered a conspiracy theory, except in certain circles (right-wing populism), where... it's also a conspiracy theory, but they do believe those.

Click to shrink...

Hardly right wing only.
There was a quite long thread here with a lot of peoples just assuming it happened.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

???

I'd say it is still widely considered a conspiracy theory, except in certain circles (right-wing populism), where... it's also a conspiracy theory, but they do believe those.

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like 70% of american think it's the most likely source, (putting together leak and intentionally)

 

[behOemoth]

I really don't get the whole obsession with lab leak theory. Is this meant to be seen as an excuse for Trump's incompetence?

Click to shrink...

Not only Trump, but the whole western world who fucked up the contamination of the virus.

 

[Chikor]

Hardly right wing only.
There was a quite long thread here with a lot of peoples just assuming it happened.

Click to shrink...

I think some people just really want it to be true, and confirmation bias is a hell of a thing.

 

[entremet]

Not only Trump, but the whole western world who fucked up the contamination of the virus.

Click to shrink...

Outside of AUS/NZ.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

Outside of AUS/NZ.

Click to shrink...

islands

 

[Senator Toadstool]

I think some people just really want it to be true, and confirmation bias is a hell of a thing.

Click to shrink...

people really want to blame the "commies"

 

[behOemoth]

Outside of AUS/NZ.

Click to shrink...

There are other exceptions like Finland, Norway, Denmark or alike. However, the point still stands.

 

[mael]

Always relevant

 

[Deleted member 4614]

Always relevant
[snip]

Click to shrink...

Lay it out for me. Why is the source of the problem the news media vs the scientist who said this:

"When I first saw the furin cleavage site in the viral sequence, with its arginine codons, I said to my wife it was the smoking gun for the origin of the virus," said David Baltimore, an eminent virologist and former president of CalTech. "These features make a powerful challenge to the idea of a natural origin for SARS2," he said.

Click to shrink...

 

[mael]

Lay it out for me. Why is the source of the problem the news media vs the scientist who said this:

Click to shrink...

I mean considering how many outlets went into the whole thing saying "smoking gun" and nothing else...
It's also why peer reviewing is so important, nothing better than a theory validated by the fact that a dozen assholes who really don't want the paper to be published trying to poke holes and failing to do so. At least that's the theory.
The scientist is absolutely to blame but the media running any scoop they can find is definitely more to blame considering how the media dictates what gets traction and what doesn't.

 

[TeaberryShark]

But Lindsey Graham was just on hannity proclaiming how trump was right and how this (some how) changes the public perception of how trump handled covid (despite the fact that no matter where it came from, he did probably the worst job imaginable when it comes to his "handling" of covid).

 

[Baji Boxer]

I mean considering how many outlets went into the whole thing saying "smoking gun" and nothing else...
It's also why peer reviewing is so important, nothing better than a theory validated by the fact that a dozen assholes who really don't want the paper to be published trying to poke holes and failing to do so. At least that's the theory.
The scientist is absolutely to blame but the media running any scoop they can find is definitely more to blame considering how the media dictates what gets traction and what doesn't.

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Yeah, most media reporting on anything scientific is poor and irresponsibly done even under normal times. The big rise in violent anti-Asian racism makes it so much worse now. Unfortunately, most news media is about entertainment, ratings, and clicks. $$$

 

[Baji Boxer]

But Lindsey Graham was just on hannity proclaiming how trump was right and how this (some how) changes the public perception of how trump handled covid (despite the fact that no matter where it came from, he did probably the worst job imaginable when it comes to his "handling" of covid).

Click to shrink...

Seriously. Makes me want to punch someone when they think it possibly originating in another location in China changes anything about any Trump action or inaction.

 

[mael]

Yeah, most media reporting on anything scientific is poor and irresponsibly done even under normal times. The big rise in violent anti-Asian racism makes it so much worse now. Unfortunately, most news media is about entertainment, ratings, and clicks. $$$

Click to shrink...

The French media when it wasn't trying to push for negationists shithead spent an unhealthy amount of time on doctor who barely do any research claim BS after BS because he was an interesting character design.

Literally cut his hair and shave the beard and the media wouldn't have spent 2 s hyping the guy.

Seriously. Makes me want to punch someone when they think it possibly originating in another location in China changes anything about any Trump action or inaction.

Click to shrink...

It literally could be coming from a curse after someone dug too deep in a pyramid and it would still change nothing.

 

[Baji Boxer]

The French media when it wasn't trying to push for negationists shithead spent an unhealthy amount of time on doctor who barely do any research claim BS after BS because he was an interesting character design.

Literally cut his hair and shave the beard and the media wouldn't have spent 2 s hyping the guy.


It literally could be coming from a curse after someone dug too deep in a pyramid and it would still change nothing.

Click to shrink...

Oh God, is he related to Trump's sleazy (now dead) personal physician?

 

[mael]

Oh God, is he related to Trump's sleazy (now dead) personal physician?

Click to shrink...

I don't think so, he's a sleezy head of department that jumped on an opportunity.
Dude would have been great friend with Trump, he was the one who initially pushed for the chloroquine nonsense and also claimed that by April 2020 the whole thing would be wrapped up.
He's also antivax.

 

[Chikor]

The French media when it wasn't trying to push for negationists shithead spent an unhealthy amount of time on doctor who barely do any research claim BS after BS because he was an interesting character design.

Literally cut his hair and shave the beard and the media wouldn't have spent 2 s hyping the guy.

Click to shrink...

I don't know how much you know about hair (I'm an expert) but I have watched a lot of sci-fi channel movies in my life and I refuse to believe this is not a bad wig.

 

[haveheart]

Science reporting is generally very bad.

Click to shrink...

Science reporting on behalf of journalists as well as science communication on behalf of academics. It's usually a mess, yeah.

 

[mael]

I don't know how much you know about hair (I'm an expert) but I have watched a lot of sci-fi channel movies in my life and I refuse to believe this is not a bad wig.

Click to shrink...

I wouldn't even be surprised if it was.
Dude is a colossal liar full of prophecies that never turn right.

 

[shoemasta]

lol David Baltimore