Kotaku: Microsoft Is Still Planning A Cheaper, Disc-Less Next-Gen Xbox

[Deleted member 20297]

Initially I didn't care for lockheart, but if they can achieve $299 while keeping the disc drive. It becomes hard to ignore for me. At minimum I trade my one x.

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It really seems attractive to me as well if it launches with that price :-)
Again, I can understand caring for a disc drive, I just don't see a point for me having one. I guess it all makes sense in how Microsoft will want to position Lockhart.
Anyway, exciting times!

 

[Ra]

It's funny how people are afraid this model could exist; for one, diminishing returns is a real thing and while it was already visible this generation, I expect it to be even more visible on the next generation. But more importantly, targeting different configurations is something that has been existing forever in PCs, and as long as that Lockhart thing is not a complete gimp (it won't), it won't be a significant factor holding off developers to output beautiful games on the premium consoles. Development costs however...

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You don't see how having to make sure games can run on a 4TF console will hold back what you can envision running on a 10TF console?

Stop comparing this to PC gaming, it's completely unrelated.

 

[HaloForzaGuy]

It's a discless xbox one x

 

[Firmus_Anguis]

That what makes this argument so laughable you can only name 1 game on 1 platform, out of 1000s.

Despite resogun using gpu resources for other tasks, the majority of the GPU is still be used to render pixels, 720p, 540p, 480p etc would require less gpu resources, plus game development has advanced since 2013. I don't think devs will have the trouble people here are hyperbolicly suggesting they will.

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And yet, we have developers on this very thread echoing these concerns.

 

[Iwao]

I'm laughing cuz ur serious when I clearly put a "/s"...and if you don't know you don't know.

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I don't know the context behind your initial reply and I haven't been following the thread. It just sounds like you think everyone responding to you has.

 

[Deleted member 2379]

I mean on PS4 launch the game Resogun, used GPU compute. How Resogun uses the PS4's architecture to create 'chaos'



Now imagine a game engine on next gen that was counting on 20% of the GPU power to do GPU compute to simulate more advanced enemies, better building destruction, etc. Great, Scarlett had the power to easily accommodate their demands.

Now, we look at Lockhart. Maybe they have 20% of the GPU power left, after rendering the same graphics at a lower resolution. Well, 20% GPU power of a lower spec part doesn't give them enough "juice" to simulate as many enemies, and the destruction can't be as detailed. Either they simplify the enemies and destruction, or they design levels that can only use the lesser amount of power. Now extend that to whatever additional feature you want (not graphics).

Now as the generation goes further, developers can extract more power from the hardware, but there will always be a hard limit between what's available to do the "other" non-rendering on the screen at some resolution graphics part and the part the happens under the hood that controls what we see on the screen.

This is why this is not good news to me.

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Was GPU compute used here because it was the most efficient path or because the CPUs were so gimped they had to do it. I lean on the latter as why. This generation was CPU constrained before it launched and required people to get creative.

 

[Deleted member 20297]

You don't see how having to make sure games can run on a 4TF console will hold back what you can envision running on a 10TF console?

Stop comparing this to PC gaming, it's completely unrelated.

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At least I don't see it. If it's a1080p console it will automatically save huge amounts of GPU resources by using a lower resolution. I don't know why this is so hard to comprehend. It's common knowledge and you can see it on the internet on hundreds of benchmarks already.

 

[amstradcpc]

And yet, we have developers on this very thread echoing these concerns.

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Bah, devs better adapt.

 

[Deleted member 56752]

My issue is messaging. How does this factor into messaging because the amount of money you're spending on this hardware is ALWAYS going to be higher than you expect and may even increase the cost of anaconda.

looking at like $499 and $599 or $399 and $499. Messaging will come across badly imho to consumers and devs. I'm sure it can work. My problem is what will people think if Sony just puts out ONE powerful $399 box? I think people just scoop it up

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

The PS4 has a GPU advantage that allowed it to run at higher resolutions....

Thats's the situation here, they are allegedly producing a machine not designed to run at 4K or maybe 60fps.
So you can remove the overhead required specifically to enable those. Beyond this the specs can remain the same and any games can be budgeted the same for physics, AI, memory useage.

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I remember at the start of this gen there were ppl saying the X1 would hold back the PS4 lol.

 

[Deleted member 50658]

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The comets should be going the other way since lockheart is basically a continuation of the "dinosaur" consoles.

/j

 

[Stormy_One_Kenobi]

If the CPU, RAM, & SSD specs are the same or close, then this will not be an issue what so ever. If they are not the same or close, I can see the arguments.

I think they will be the same or close, just the GPU will be lowered significantly. will literlly be like upgrading your GPU, and the GPU only, on your PC. Can run the same games, they just look better.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

And yet, we have developers on this very thread echoing these concerns.

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Developer comparing the gap between Lockhart and PS5 to Xb1s to 1X. Ridiculous hot take.

 

[Andromeda]

As a developer I'll tell you why I absolutely hate the idea of Lockhart.

When you go into the next generation of any console, it is always a premium buy-in. Some are ready day one to pay whatever price for next gen, whether that's $399 or $599.

Let's talk about $599. The PS3 did not launch at $599. It launched at $499, with a SKU that was the same base hardware but lesser hard drive space, no extra media slots, and a few other extras that didn't make the cut. Growth of the PS3 didn't start happening until a new $499 SKU was introduced that had more limited backwards compatibility and features.

Think about that for a minute: why would sales growth occur at $499 when the system launched at $499 to begin with? Because the new $499 system wasn't marketed as an "inferior" step down from the $599 version. It was the new PS3 SKU going forward. And because of that, people perceived the price at $499. Then we had the $399 PS3, and so on.

Microsoft wants it all, day one. They want the premium super hardware buyers. They want the soccer moms. They want the kids who only get one big gift per year. They want the busy traveler that can only game in the cloud. They want the subscription junkie that only plays through Game Pass. They think they can get there with two SKUs: one super premium console that's maybe $499 and one lesser console for $399. The market won't see the $399 console because again, the next gen buy-in at launch is ALWAYS PREMIUM. The perception will be the high end SKU is the true next gen console, and it won't be until that one declines in price that you'll see a bigger audience coming into the Xbox ecosystem.

The ramifications for a lesser SKU are huge, just like the Xbox Core/Arcade. You're already seeing that now with Xbox One X/S- some recent games like the Outer Worlds look worse on XB1X than PS4 Pro because they're upscaled ports of XB1S. You will see a LOT of that if there are two SKUs on the market, guaranteed. The premium Xbox will be a worse console because of the existence of Lockhart. Meanwhile, the PS5 has nothing other than itself to scale for, and that's huge.

But wait you say, Apple does this with the iPhone Pro and the standard colorful iPhones! You cannot bring the phone market into the console one. The comparison makes no sense. Eventually, at some point, you will need a new phone. You need it to basically live in this day and age. Sony and MS already have an uphill battle marketing and selling next gen because of the PS4 Pro and XB1X. It will be more difficult showing off amazing looking games because we're already playing amazing looking games. They have to get there with features, with quality of life features, with things that will cause this next gen to be a much slower start than I think this gen was. When your main selling point is less features at a lower price with Lockhart, you have a severe problem.

I hope they don't do this. This feels like marketing and executives meddling in the video game space. It feels aimless and stupid.

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This 100%. And The Outer Worlds is not an isolated case. Borderlands 3 is another example of an up-resed XB1 game on XBX with XB1 settings (low AF, details low compared to PS4 and Pro version).

Also it could explain the bad performance of some games on XBX if they don't optimize at all the game for the enhanced machine (I think it's the case for most COD games). I think Pro usually gets away with it because Pro was designed from the ground up to run PS4 games at higher res.

 

[Deleted member 37917]

You don't see how having to make sure games can run on a 4TF console will hold back what you can envision running on a 10TF console?

Stop comparing this to PC gaming, it's completely unrelated.

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No, I don't really see it as long as the CPUs are similar; not in a world where it is possible to downport Witcher 3 on a freaking switch and retain the full experience.
But it seems to make people very angry, which I admit is quite funny to me; especially as I am among those who would be very interested by a cheaper box.
If anything, it should be seen as a good news for the premium buyers, because it may FINALLY pushed the developers to target 60fps on most games designed for the flagship models; and cut that framerate in half for the gimped one. Everybody wins. Unless you don't like 60 fps.

 

[Deleted member 45460]

It's a discless xbox one x

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not even close

 

[Dogui]

If the main thing about next gen consoles is putting games on native 4k, i can see a weaker console being viable to play the same games on 1080p.

It will increase development time tho. The advantage consoles have over pc in a more smooth dev cycle due to being made for the exactly same device will not exist here. Which means some devs may want PS5 exclusivity just for that.

It's great for the consumers tho. For someone that doesn't care a lot about performance like me, Lockhart seems great, but then Sony could also gain the upper hand on exclusivity games that interests me more.

Also, let's say japanese AA games (think Yakuza or Tales of stuff) gets to release more on the next xbox ecosystem (like in 360, unlike Xone), and noticing that these games will probably not really use the next gen hardware potential, they could possibly be developed with the Lockheart in mind.

 

[Desfrog]

While I feel sorry for devs who will have their ambitions hampered I'd say this is a smart move, especially in price sensitive markets. Wonder if this will allow PS exclusives to be more impressive in comparison since they have a much higher baseline.

 

[Deleted member 20297]

It's a discless xbox one x

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Gladly that's by far not the case, it's way better.

 

[Heidern]

Was GPU compute used here because it was the most efficient path or because the CPUs were so gimped they had to do it. I lean on the latter as why. This generation was CPU constrained before it launched and required people to get creative.

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This seems like a fair point. I just expected that a process that was used on current gen games would be used for leveraging the next gen systems to extract their full performance. If all the devs are using the GPU only for what we see on the screen then it won't make a difference. I just don't think this was going to be the reality of next gen before it ended.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

I wonder how that whole Windows "GameCore" project factors into this. IIRC, that's supposed to be designed for easy game development across platforms. Could also be part of why Microsoft is being slower to kick out dev kits.

 

[EekumBokum]

This is really bad news, multiplat games will be held back next gen. Graphical power of a PS4 Pro, seriously?

 

[Deleted member 56752]

This 100%. And The Outer Worlds is not an isolated case. Borderlands 3 is another example of an up-resed XB1 game on XBX with XB1 settings (low AF, details low compared to PS4 and Pro version).

Also it could explain the bad performance of some games on XBX if they don't optimize at all the game for the enhanced machine (I think it's the case for most COD games). I think Pro usually gets away with it because Pro was designed from the ground up to run PS4 games at higher res.

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The guy you quoted is 100% right on the money. You can't get both the premium day one guys (me) and the cheapskates. It isn't going to work. Maybe if the difference was only the storage or no optical drive

 

[Deleted member 45460]

This is really bad news, multiplat games will be held back next gen. Graphical power of a PS4 Pro, seriously?

Click to shrink...

No, no, and no. we're 17 pages into this thread and you're making the wrong statements from page 2 still.

 

[Theorry]

[/QUOTE]

This is really bad news, multiplat games will be held back next gen. Graphical power of a PS4 Pro, seriously?

Click to shrink...

4tf from the Pro isnt the same as the upcoming 4TF. But this has been said many times now..
And the biggest gains are gonna be made SSD wise and CPU wise.

 

[BAD]

So, it actually sounds like the CPU is clocked differently (though that isn't even finalized). But it's otherwise similar.

Like, the Kotaku article literally says it's designed to run 4K60fps next gen games at 1440p60fps.

And here you are comparing it to a 360->xb1 difference? Get real.

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We also heard PS4 Pro was gonna do 4K 60fps. It almost never can. We then heard Xbox One X was designed for 4K 60fps. It almost never can.

Please don't buy into the stated relative numbers they give for output. Devs end up doing massively different and tricky things instead. There's plenty of weird, non-indentifiable problems between versions of games today like Jedi Fallen Order when comparing base and pro models.

Developers now have access to tools that allow them to develop for the top tier box and with a push of a button on the Dev kit scale it down to work with all other versions of Xbox, but Im sure most of you know this by now.

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Then why didn't something like Dragon Age Inquisition get to keep all its gameplay features last time we did the transition? They cited RAM, and many devs cite CPU. There's more than just GPU that matters. This rumor suggests there may be clock differences in the CPU, and that's a problem.

 

[Deleted member 20297]

No, no, and no. we're 17 pages into this thread and you're making the wrong statements from page 2 still.

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Yeah there should be some thread marks.

 

[walriii314]

Wow! It almost seems like that one of the most reliable insiders on the industry that covers Microsoft for years was right and ERA armchair analysts were wrong.... who would thought of that, huh?

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.

 

[Transistor]

As a developer I'll tell you why I absolutely hate the idea of Lockhart.

When you go into the next generation of any console, it is always a premium buy-in. Some are ready day one to pay whatever price for next gen, whether that's $399 or $599.

Let's talk about $599. The PS3 did not launch at $599. It launched at $499, with a SKU that was the same base hardware but lesser hard drive space, no extra media slots, and a few other extras that didn't make the cut. Growth of the PS3 didn't start happening until a new $499 SKU was introduced that had more limited backwards compatibility and features.

Think about that for a minute: why would sales growth occur at $499 when the system launched at $499 to begin with? Because the new $499 system wasn't marketed as an "inferior" step down from the $599 version. It was the new PS3 SKU going forward. And because of that, people perceived the price at $499. Then we had the $399 PS3, and so on.

Microsoft wants it all, day one. They want the premium super hardware buyers. They want the soccer moms. They want the kids who only get one big gift per year. They want the busy traveler that can only game in the cloud. They want the subscription junkie that only plays through Game Pass. They think they can get there with two SKUs: one super premium console that's maybe $499 and one lesser console for $399. The market won't see the $399 console because again, the next gen buy-in at launch is ALWAYS PREMIUM. The perception will be the high end SKU is the true next gen console, and it won't be until that one declines in price that you'll see a bigger audience coming into the Xbox ecosystem.

The ramifications for a lesser SKU are huge, just like the Xbox Core/Arcade. You're already seeing that now with Xbox One X/S- some recent games like the Outer Worlds look worse on XB1X than PS4 Pro because they're upscaled ports of XB1S. You will see a LOT of that if there are two SKUs on the market, guaranteed. The premium Xbox will be a worse console because of the existence of Lockhart. Meanwhile, the PS5 has nothing other than itself to scale for, and that's huge.

But wait you say, Apple does this with the iPhone Pro and the standard colorful iPhones! You cannot bring the phone market into the console one. The comparison makes no sense. Eventually, at some point, you will need a new phone. You need it to basically live in this day and age. Sony and MS already have an uphill battle marketing and selling next gen because of the PS4 Pro and XB1X. It will be more difficult showing off amazing looking games because we're already playing amazing looking games. They have to get there with features, with quality of life features, with things that will cause this next gen to be a much slower start than I think this gen was. When your main selling point is less features at a lower price with Lockhart, you have a severe problem.

I hope they don't do this. This feels like marketing and executives meddling in the video game space. It feels aimless and stupid.

Click to shrink...

I want you to know how much I appreciate you writing this all out. It echoes my sentiments perfectly.

 

[EekumBokum]

No, no, and no. we're 17 pages into this thread and you're making the wrong statements from page 2 still.

Click to shrink...

What changed? I just read the OP

 

[kostacurtas]

You don't see how having to make sure games can run on a 4TF console will hold back what you can envision running on a 10TF console?

Stop comparing this to PC gaming, it's completely unrelated.

Click to shrink...

And we only know about the difference on the GPU raw power.

What about RAM/VRAM? SSD speed? Ray tracing support? CPU?

With this decision from Microsoft it will not surprise me if next gen we will have more games (than normal) for the combination PC + PS5.

 

[Deleted member 2379]

This seems like a fair point. I just expected that a process that was used on current gen games would be used for leveraging the next gen systems to extract their full performance. If all the devs are using the GPU only for what we see on the screen then it won't make a difference. I just don't think this was going to be the reality of next gen before it ended.

Click to shrink...

MS' vaunted cloud computing for physics was because they had no other option on the heavy number crunching stuff. All three of these consoles will have bleeding edge CPUs. I can't imagine they will want to have to lean in on GPU compute unless they have to but I'm happy to hear if someone says otherwise.

 

[Basarili]

In short term it might work on the long run it might hurt.

 

[TitlePending]

As a developer I'll tell you why I absolutely hate the idea of Lockhart.

When you go into the next generation of any console, it is always a premium buy-in. Some are ready day one to pay whatever price for next gen, whether that's $399 or $599.

Let's talk about $599. The PS3 did not launch at $599. It launched at $499, with a SKU that was the same base hardware but lesser hard drive space, no extra media slots, and a few other extras that didn't make the cut. Growth of the PS3 didn't start happening until a new $499 SKU was introduced that had more limited backwards compatibility and features.

Think about that for a minute: why would sales growth occur at $499 when the system launched at $499 to begin with? Because the new $499 system wasn't marketed as an "inferior" step down from the $599 version. It was the new PS3 SKU going forward. And because of that, people perceived the price at $499. Then we had the $399 PS3, and so on.

Microsoft wants it all, day one. They want the premium super hardware buyers. They want the soccer moms. They want the kids who only get one big gift per year. They want the busy traveler that can only game in the cloud. They want the subscription junkie that only plays through Game Pass. They think they can get there with two SKUs: one super premium console that's maybe $499 and one lesser console for $399. The market won't see the $399 console because again, the next gen buy-in at launch is ALWAYS PREMIUM. The perception will be the high end SKU is the true next gen console, and it won't be until that one declines in price that you'll see a bigger audience coming into the Xbox ecosystem.

The ramifications for a lesser SKU are huge, just like the Xbox Core/Arcade. You're already seeing that now with Xbox One X/S- some recent games like the Outer Worlds look worse on XB1X than PS4 Pro because they're upscaled ports of XB1S. You will see a LOT of that if there are two SKUs on the market, guaranteed. The premium Xbox will be a worse console because of the existence of Lockhart. Meanwhile, the PS5 has nothing other than itself to scale for, and that's huge.

But wait you say, Apple does this with the iPhone Pro and the standard colorful iPhones! You cannot bring the phone market into the console one. The comparison makes no sense. Eventually, at some point, you will need a new phone. You need it to basically live in this day and age. Sony and MS already have an uphill battle marketing and selling next gen because of the PS4 Pro and XB1X. It will be more difficult showing off amazing looking games because we're already playing amazing looking games. They have to get there with features, with quality of life features, with things that will cause this next gen to be a much slower start than I think this gen was. When your main selling point is less features at a lower price with Lockhart, you have a severe problem.

I hope they don't do this. This feels like marketing and executives meddling in the video game space. It feels aimless and stupid.

Click to shrink...

Great write up -- I'm bookmarking this for future reference.

It sounds like this strategy is setting Microsoft up for the "Jack of all trades, king of nothing" conundrum in terms of gaming performance.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

You don't see how having to make sure games can run on a 4TF console will hold back what you can envision running on a 10TF console?

Stop comparing this to PC gaming, it's completely unrelated.

Click to shrink...

Well 4tf Navi is about 6tf GCN so that would be a 4.5x increase over X1 GPU

If anaconda is 11tf Navi @ 4k that's about 2.2x more then X1X or 3.2x ps4 Pro.

So in terms of GPU "leap" lockhart could be better then the more powerful systems.

 

[Stormy_One_Kenobi]

This is really bad news, multiplat games will be held back next gen. Graphical power of a PS4 Pro, seriously?

Click to shrink...

A 4tf Polaris GPU vs. A 4tf (maybe 5, dont know for sure) RDN2 GPU that we already know if far, far more efficient. Couple that with likely a PCIe 4.0 SSD, a modern CPU, and the same or close RAM makes Lockhart far better than a Xbox One X let alone a PS4 Pro. Easily.

 

[Golvellius]

They were joking lol

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Oops. My bad.

 

[Deleted member 45460]

Great write up -- I'm bookmarking this for future reference.

It sounds like this strategy is setting Microsoft up for the "Jack of all trades, king of nothing" conundrum in terms of gaming performance.

Click to shrink...

but.... they'll have a box as strong as a ps5 and one a bit weaker resolution wise for those who are concerned about price and still aimed at 1080p? If the anaconda wasn't as strong as a ps5 at all then maybe but that's not the supposed case.

 

[Darknight]

Great write up -- I'm bookmarking this for future reference.

It sounds like this strategy is setting Microsoft up for the "Jack of all trades, king of nothing" conundrum in terms of gaming performance.

Click to shrink...

But is this really fair? He's a developer on the outside looking in and commenting. Developers on the inside who have more intimate knowledge and have a better grasp of what is going on can't really comment publicly about this.

 

[Ringten]

Not really. As alot of people think its less powerfull then the X.

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Oh shoot you're right! He could have very well meant that.

At first glance I would have thought its weaker than the X aswell, since in this thread the GPU is being talker about a lot. Whilst ignoring the spec bumps in CPU and having an SSD.

Although I think, this may pan out nicely for MS. I wish it was not a thing, as I much rather have a solid base going into next gen.

 

[JaggedSac]

And we only know about the difference on the GPU raw power.

What about RAM/VRAM? SSD speed? Ray tracing support? CPU?

With this decision from Microsoft it will not surprise me if next gen we will have more games (than normal) for the combination PC + PS5.

Click to shrink...

You ask about SSD speed, raytracing support, and CPU, and then talk about PC, where there are lots of people who dont have SSDs, don't have cards with raytracing support, and have less than Zen 2 CPUs.

 

[Deleted member 2379]

From the other thread thinking through BOM. Happy for someone to tell me if I'm missing something.

Lockhart will likely use binned APUs that didn't make the cut for Scarlett. They will downclock the CPU slightly but it will be same arch to keep development simple. GPU will likely just have deactivated cores. This immediately increases overall yields from manufacturing and cuts costs. Swapping in a completely new APU and arch makes no sense here. You use the binned chips from the big boy and cut back on them to hit numbers. You aren't changing to a completely new die. My sense is that the cost of developing that makes little to no sense. Let's say these shifts cut $75 off the BOM.

Likely maintain the same RAM speed and size as GDDR price won't move the needle enough to justify the bottleneck caused by different ram amounts.

Cut out the BD drive saving ~$20ish.

Use the same SSD at a lower capacity cutting more off the BOM.

Let's say you can get $125 off the BOM from the above. This console now has flexibility on price. You can now think through the next steps of the LTV of the console. You can only purchase games digitally on it which means all future purchases run through your store only significantly increasing your margin on software sales. You also pack in a month of Gamepass to get them in.

Launch at $300. Scarlett at $500.

Click to shrink...

 

[Deleted member 224]

We also heard PS4 Pro was gonna do 4K 60fps. It almost never can. We then heard Xbox One X was designed for 4K 60fps. It almost never can.

Please don't buy into the stated relative numbers they give for output. Devs end up doing massively different and tricky things instead. There's plenty of weird, non-indentifiable problems between versions of games today like Jedi Fallen Order when comparing base and pro models.
Then why didn't something like Dragon Age Inquisition get to keep all its gameplay features last time we did the transition? They cited RAM, and many devs cite CPU. There's more than just GPU that matters. This rumor suggests there may be clock differences in the CPU, and that's a problem.

Click to shrink...

"Buy in to the stated relative numbers"

Alright, I know you're trolling at this point, so I'm just going to quickly respond and then stop reading your posts. These aren't PR numbers, these are the numbers that MS is reportedly targeting internally.

Even if we're assuming they can't hit that, something like 4K->1080p would allow for a pretty sizeable GPU difference.

And I see that you're still grasping at straws. Talking about what will likely be minor (if any) cpu clock differences and still using PS3/360->xb1/PS4 power differences as a comparison point😂.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

Lockhart is a completely different API than Anaconda, with it's only codename.

 

[Firmus_Anguis]

Developer comparing the gap between Lockhart and PS5 to Xb1s to 1X. Ridiculous hot take.

Click to shrink...

The ramifications for a lesser SKU are huge, just like the Xbox Core/Arcade. You're already seeing that now with Xbox One X/S- some recent games like the Outer Worlds look worse on XB1X than PS4 Pro because they're upscaled ports of XB1S. You will see a LOT of that if there are two SKUs on the market, guaranteed. The premium Xbox will be a worse console because of the existence of Lockhart. Meanwhile, the PS5 has nothing other than itself to scale for, and that's huge.

I hope they don't do this. This feels like marketing and executives meddling in the video game space. It feels aimless and stupid.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, it's a hot take all right. Read the bolded and fuck right off with your nonsense. They're gimping the Scarlett.
Hopefully developers don't make any concessions for the PS5. Let this be Microsoft's headache.

 

[Jeffram]

As a developer I'll tell you why I absolutely hate the idea of Lockhart.

When you go into the next generation of any console, it is always a premium buy-in. Some are ready day one to pay whatever price for next gen, whether that's $399 or $599.

Let's talk about $599. The PS3 did not launch at $599. It launched at $499, with a SKU that was the same base hardware but lesser hard drive space, no extra media slots, and a few other extras that didn't make the cut. Growth of the PS3 didn't start happening until a new $499 SKU was introduced that had more limited backwards compatibility and features.

Think about that for a minute: why would sales growth occur at $499 when the system launched at $499 to begin with? Because the new $499 system wasn't marketed as an "inferior" step down from the $599 version. It was the new PS3 SKU going forward. And because of that, people perceived the price at $499. Then we had the $399 PS3, and so on.

Microsoft wants it all, day one. They want the premium super hardware buyers. They want the soccer moms. They want the kids who only get one big gift per year. They want the busy traveler that can only game in the cloud. They want the subscription junkie that only plays through Game Pass. They think they can get there with two SKUs: one super premium console that's maybe $499 and one lesser console for $399. The market won't see the $399 console because again, the next gen buy-in at launch is ALWAYS PREMIUM. The perception will be the high end SKU is the true next gen console, and it won't be until that one declines in price that you'll see a bigger audience coming into the Xbox ecosystem.

The ramifications for a lesser SKU are huge, just like the Xbox Core/Arcade. You're already seeing that now with Xbox One X/S- some recent games like the Outer Worlds look worse on XB1X than PS4 Pro because they're upscaled ports of XB1S. You will see a LOT of that if there are two SKUs on the market, guaranteed. The premium Xbox will be a worse console because of the existence of Lockhart. Meanwhile, the PS5 has nothing other than itself to scale for, and that's huge.

But wait you say, Apple does this with the iPhone Pro and the standard colorful iPhones! You cannot bring the phone market into the console one. The comparison makes no sense. Eventually, at some point, you will need a new phone. You need it to basically live in this day and age. Sony and MS already have an uphill battle marketing and selling next gen because of the PS4 Pro and XB1X. It will be more difficult showing off amazing looking games because we're already playing amazing looking games. They have to get there with features, with quality of life features, with things that will cause this next gen to be a much slower start than I think this gen was. When your main selling point is less features at a lower price with Lockhart, you have a severe problem.

I hope they don't do this. This feels like marketing and executives meddling in the video game space. It feels aimless and stupid.

Click to shrink...

Thanks for this insight dude, You have been providing some great insight for on various message boards for over a decade it feels like.

 

[JaggedSac]

Lockhart is a completely different API than Anaconda, with it's only codename.

Click to shrink...

Im guessing you meant APU?

 

[Keikaku]

Did someone say 4TF?

 

[thuway]

tomwarren tweeted that there is a reason developers are just now getting Anaconda devkits.


I wonder why.

 

[BAD]

Why are we calling Scarlett by the old name Anaconda at random?