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Justin Amash is running for President

moblin

moblin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,107
Москва
sir wallace walrus said:
How does he compare to Jacob Homberger who apparently is in the lead for nomination?
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Hornberger is much closer to the "paleoconservative" archetype, a Ron Paul-esque isolationist who hates the Fed (and probably flouride).

Amash is functionally a moderate Republican, not unlike Gary Johnson.

And LP doesn't award delegates to candidates based on contest wins like the two major parties (and the Greens), the delegates just vote for whomever they want at the national convention. Nobody is technically "in the lead", it's just preference votes at this point and the party is as fractured as always
 
sangreal

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
this guy's arc has been pretty fascinating tbh. a dead-end vanity campaign to cap it off makes sense I guess
 
alr1ght

alr1ght

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,047
"Conservative" independents/suburban voters who largely gave the Dems the "blue wave" two years ago is who he's going to pull from. It's not good.
 
Sadsic

Sadsic

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,799
New Jersey
Libertarian is like a sexy title to low information republicans and republican leaning independents. They have no idea what it means but will say they like it or they are one (until you explain it means open borders, abortion and legal drugs). There's legitimately a lot of people who would vote for Trump but are embarrassed by the guy that are likely to vote libertarian instead, and this is a really good candidate to suck up those votes in places like New Hampshire. This is almost certainly good news for democrats, and I would not really expect that embarrassed democrats will vote for him, they will likely vote green party or just stay home.
 
Dude Abides

Dude Abides

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,382
Sadsic said:
He was part of the GOP, the only people who are going to vote for him are republican leaning independents who almost certainly would have voted for trump otherwise
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He's a never Trumper. Those are precisely the people Dems think Biden can get.

GoldenEye 007 said:
Do these people usually go libertarian? Not sure why they'd start now. They'd also know the results of doing such a thing en made.
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sure. They like low taxes. They just don't like Trump for aesthetics and cultural reasons. That is who the Dems have decided are a key part of the strategy this time.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
Dude Abides said:
sure. They like low taxes. They just don't like Trump for aesthetics and cultural reasons. That is who the Dems have decided are a key part of the strategy this time.
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Dems are a big tent party. By default, they have to go after a range of people - including suburbanites.

Just not sure there is any history to point to these people flocking to libertarians. This isn't a new party and they've been quite high profile relatively for years.
 
Sadsic

Sadsic

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,799
New Jersey
Dude Abides said:
He's a never Trumper. Those are precisely the people Dems think Biden can get.



sure. They like low taxes. They just don't like Trump for aesthetics and cultural reasons. That is who the Dems have decided are a key part of the strategy this time.
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I think democrats gave up on the Hillary strategy around the time they took like most of Bernie's campaign in 2016 and made it the party platform
 
pixelpatron

pixelpatron

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,542
Seattle
Unless you have a cure for cancer or Covid-19, never gonna happen. If Bloomberg couldn't buy his way in what chance in hell this guy got. Also.....who?
 
PAFenix

PAFenix

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Nov 21, 2019
14,610
My parents won't vote Dem for shit. MAYBE I can convince them to vote for this guy.
 
danm999

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,095
Sydney
pixelpatron said:
Unless you have a cure for cancer or Covid-19, never gonna happen. If Bloomberg couldn't buy his way in what chance in hell this guy got. Also.....who?
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I don't think people expect him to win, they think he might complicate things for Biden in Michigan and the Midwest by acting as a spoiler for the suburban Never Trump vote.
 
Era Uma Vez

Era Uma Vez

Member
Feb 5, 2020
3,204
Same reason people here, and all over the country are willing to vote for a (alleged) rapist to make sure Trump loses, is the same reason a lot of Republicans that dont like Trump will still vote for him to ensure the Democrats lose.
This changes nothing.
Compared to the number of votes the Democrats are gonna lose because of the sexual assault accusations, this guy wont make much of a dent on the Red side.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
Era Uma Vez said:
Same reason people here, and all over the country are willing to vote for a (alleged) rapist to make sure Trump loses, is the same reason a lot of Republicans that dont like Trump will still vote for him to ensure the Democrats lose.
This changes nothing.
Compared to the number of votes the Democrats are gonna lose because of the sexual assault accusations, this guy wont make much of a dent on the Red side.
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Where is the data for this?

Trump is hated more than ever and has 50k+ dead Americans on his watch in an election year. I think you underestimate the hate for him and the amount of people willing to set aside Biden's sexual assault allegations to get him out. Biden is still popular and his poll numbers continue to get better. He's also a known quantity in that he gets back to at least a semblance of governance normalcy - which plenty of people are desperate for.

Putting places like FL back into play, which no other candidate seemed to be able to do also. Even if I don't fully trust FL polling until election night anymore.
 
BWoog

BWoog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
38,264
If it were Bernie I'd understand, but 100% moderate Republicans are voting Biden.

This does nothing for no one.
 

Deleted member 2102

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
692
RastaMentality said:
Why would any Trump leaning people decide to vote for a man whose sole claim to fame is impeaching Trump? Someone answer this logic.
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There are people who voted for Trump in 2016 but aren't committed to voting for him in 2020, and there are those who are certain that they won't. Here's an article about it:
www.vox.com

10% of Trump 2016 voters might not vote for him in 2020

The persuadable Trump voter could swing the election in November.
www.vox.com www.vox.com

And an early 2019 article showing that Republican support is a bit of a wildcard:

These are the people who are going to be drawn to Amash's campaign. There are plenty of disillusioned Republicans looking for a moderate option who would find it easier to vote Libertarian than Democrat. This won't necessarily lead to Amash making a splash, but he's likely to sap some support.
 
iksenpets

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,484
Dallas, TX
Tukarrs said:
There's theoretically Republicans who dislike Trump but can't vote for a Democrat who would vote for Amash.
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There definitely are. Not sure if they outnumber disaffected Republicans who would swallow their pride and vote Biden, but are happy to have Amash to escape that dilemma, though. I would hope he's done the polling to get evidence he'll help more than hurt.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
From a couple weeks ago - Morning Consult. Amash polling at 1% as a presidential candidate in his home state of Michigan. Biden maintained a 4 point lead regardless of if Amash was on the ballot. The 1% came from Trump.

Obviously things change, but there is just no evidence they he's going to be taking from Biden.

 

Deleted member 4346

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,976
It's going to be interesting. Amash as Libertarian Party candidate and it looks like Jesse Ventura is angling to be the Green Party candidate. With as wretched as the two major party candidates are this time around, and as close as 2016 was, third-party candidates could possibly decide the race.
 
krazen

krazen

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,119
Gentrified Brooklyn
What's funny is you see large swaths of twitter mad claiming that this will steal votes for biden but it's all from blatant bots, lol.

So I guess ze Russians are scared? That said, I don't see a scenario where Amash is a factor at all
 
Blue Skies

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
Michigan might go to trump
But that's it
All the other swings that are going for Biden still will
 
mikhailguy

mikhailguy

Banned
Jun 20, 2019
1,967
Hopefully, he knows what the deal is and campaigns in a way that opposes Trump more so than Biden.

I'm pretty sure he's actually gonna run, saying that both parties are equally at fault.
 
skeezx

skeezx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,126
Tukarrs said:
There's theoretically Republicans who dislike Trump but can't vote for a Democrat who would vote for Amash.
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yeah but even then they all be like

2d2.jpg
 
HououinKyouma

HououinKyouma

The Wise Ones
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,366
Imagine being a Libertarian in 2020 after seeing how quickly COVID took down our country. Incredible.

Oh well, hope he steals some GOP votes.
 
Robochimp

Robochimp

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,677
He can take all the white male voters he wants, we're terrible and I doubt it would hurt Biden.
 
The Albatross

The Albatross

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,958
Conventional wisdom suggests this would eat slightly into Trump, but more likely it won't have a meaningful effect on either side or at least that it's too unpredictable to really root either way.

The idea that it would hurt Biden more than Trump is a larger stretch though.

Amash has an interesting story in that he's the child of Syrian & Palestinian immigrant parents. But that's about where the interesting part ends.

moblin said:
Hornberger is much closer to the "paleoconservative" archetype, a Ron Paul-esque isolationist who hates the Fed (and probably flouride).

Amash is functionally a moderate Republican, not unlike Gary Johnson.
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Amash is not a moderate republican. He's a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, the most conservative, extreme right blocs in Congress.

He's ideological and sticks to his principals, so he's anti-Trump, which sometimes gets portrayed as moderate. He's the type of republican that votes against the anti-lynching bill because it costs $50 to print the paper the bill is written on.
 
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