There's signs of them breaking for Biden since the "sacrifice grandma's life to make line go up" shtick is highly unpopular with them
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Fortunately, there were some good Wisconsin and Michigan polls today too.
Due to our broken EC system, national polls don't really mean all that much for Democrats unless they're up at least 5 points. And even then, margin of error makes it difficult to feel comfortable.
Fortunately, Biden's up 10.5 points nationally on average and it's basically impossible to lose the EC if that number holds.
Turns out being sacrificed at the alter is a hard pill to swallow even for racists.
Exactly. I don't think it's bad to say go vote but I also don't get the idea that in political posts on this forum people aren't voting. Still work to be done. Find ways to help Dems in places where they will need it. Close house and senate races aren't hard to find. If anyone needs help let me know. Great resources in that thread already.
its ok, we all have our "lyric mistakes". just like how in Bad Moon Rising I thought John Fogerty said "there's a bathroom on the right"
Some have, some havent. In my mind, if we were taking every possibility as seriously as you should, we wouldn't see as many folks hyping unprecedented mail in ballots totals or national polling. Mail in/early voting has always been a trap metric that often isnt a sign of anything at the end of the day.
And the other day I quoted a post that said because Biden was up +7 nationally, the odds of him losing are "vanishingly small." On October 17, 2016 Hillary had an 88% chance to win the election according to 538.
Hillary's chances tanked at the end because of a late October Surprise, that worked. Undecideds broke for Trump, and he barely won. It's hard to imagine an October Surprise that could accomplish the same thing now. People want Trump gone. Nothing is going to change that.
Trump's only chance is to cheat. Unless maybe Biden were to die, and the resulting confusion suppressed voting.
Idk about you all but I read 856 "vote" posts on ResetEra and it just did not register for me at all.
Then, I read "vote" for the 857th time, and it finally clicked and I was like "Hmm ok, I'll vote."
So thanks everyone for saying "vote" over and over for the past year because I wouldn't have gotten it otherwise.
Then, I read "vote" for the 857th time, and it finally clicked and I was like "Hmm ok, I'll vote."
So thanks everyone for saying "vote" over and over for the past year because I wouldn't have gotten it otherwise.
I wouldn't be so sure. There are a lot of pissed off dems here, the amount of people that have come out to get the vote in already is insane compared to 2016. There are a lot of racist shitbags here but there are a lot of signs that a good chunk of seniors or moving towards Biden now.
I just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
The difference may be in which demographics were pulling for Gillum though, the fact that Biden seems to be performing so much better with older voters than Hillary did in 2016 may be the deciding factor.
Didn't he have a scandal? I know it still sucks and shouldn't matter, but I think it did play a huge factorI just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
Yes but this is a referendum on Trump, not a governor's race. A lot has happened in the last two years. Hell, this year has changed everything. I'm not saying it's in the bag, but there's vastly different circumstances.I just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
Some nothing burger surrounding theater tickets, I don't think that qualifies as a type of election unrailing event, especially in a post 2016 world.
2018 was as much a referendum on Trump as anything, the fervor among Democrats to retake the House was pushing unprecedented participation in the primary. Maybe the more relevant differences involve the type of candidate Biden is compared to Gillum. Gillum was unabashedly progressive in a primary season that saw the most success for more moderate Democratic candidates.
We're a month out to the election but I would expect the numbers to tighten rather than pull further apart, and the polling as its currently looking seems to imply that Biden might even have less support than Gillum had in 2018.*
It's gonna be a dead heat for both parties in Florida.
*Quinnipiac poll aside, seems like an outlier.
You're underestimating the amount of damage COVID has done to Trump's campaign this year, especially among seniors here in Florida. Like you said, Biden is seen as a moderate to a lot of these people vs Gillum. And, well, he's white, and hell Trump only beat Clinton by like...1% here...and that's with Clinton being one of the most unpopular candidates in recent memory. It's a very different ballgame this time.Some nothing burger surrounding theater tickets, I don't think that qualifies as a type of election unrailing event, especially in a post 2016 world.
2018 was as much a referendum on Trump as anything, the fervor among Democrats to retake the House was pushing unprecedented participation in the primary. Maybe the more relevant differences involve the type of candidate Biden is compared to Gillum. Gillum was unabashedly progressive in a primary season that saw the most success for more moderate Democratic candidates.
We're a month out to the election but I would expect the numbers to tighten rather than pull further apart, and the polling as its currently looking seems to imply that Biden might even have less support than Gillum had in 2018.*
It's gonna be a dead heat for both parties in Florida.
*Quinnipiac poll aside, seems like an outlier.
You know how if something is annoying, you remember it? Like advertising.
People should vote and it cannot be repeated enough
Reading the Fox News comments section is somewhat schadenfreude, but also scary. If Biden were down in the polls, we would be in despair. But they do not despair, because they are brainwashed to disbelieve it could possibly be true. They attack the poll methodology, the concept of representative sampling, shadowy figures manipulating the numbers, any and everything to cling onto the false reality where Trump is ahead.
Scary times coming up...but times that will result in hope, I wager.
Scary times coming up...but times that will result in hope, I wager.
According to the average of the polls, they accurately predicted Gillum's vote share.I just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
The difference may be in which demographics were pulling for Gillum though, the fact that Biden seems to be performing so much better with older voters than Hillary did in 2016 may be the deciding factor.
49.4 average
49.2 actual
Just appears that the undecideds broke for DeSantis.
The huge amount of early voting limits the potential for that sort of impact as well.
Everything looks good now no doubt, but the last three weeks of the campaign can be like the last 5 minutes before the stock market closes, things can swing wildly. A few things keep me up at night:
-Trump's approval rating is near the higher end of his historical range at nearly 45%. He generally polls lower than that, but it makes me think there's headroom for him to overperform his national polls and get 46% of the popular vote again, which is just enough for it to be possible to get an electoral college victory again.
-Another polling miss in the Midwest and Florida. I feel relatively good about Michigan, but I don't trust Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida to be as Democratic-leaning as polls say they are. Rather than Biden being up 7 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, I think he's up 3 or 4, which is close enough for national tightening to make them even. As for Florida, it resisted the Democratic wave in 2018. For me, the Midwest and Florida are basically demographic unknowns ever four years, you just don't know for sure who has moved in or out, and that makes all the difference.
-Mail-in votes for Biden being disqualified. I helped a friend at his pharmacy once for a couple of months until he could find someone new. No one ever filled out the forms right, especially really poor people. So I have a big worry that a meaningful percentage of Biden mail-in votes will be disqualified and it costs Biden 2-3% in key states.
-A national tightening of 3-4 points by election day that make the above points magnified. The electoral college already spots Trump 3 or so points. Now, if Biden is up 7-10 points then the above points don't matter, if he's up only up 3-5 points then he could be in trouble and we're waiting days after the election to know who won.
-Trump's approval rating is near the higher end of his historical range at nearly 45%. He generally polls lower than that, but it makes me think there's headroom for him to overperform his national polls and get 46% of the popular vote again, which is just enough for it to be possible to get an electoral college victory again.
-Another polling miss in the Midwest and Florida. I feel relatively good about Michigan, but I don't trust Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida to be as Democratic-leaning as polls say they are. Rather than Biden being up 7 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, I think he's up 3 or 4, which is close enough for national tightening to make them even. As for Florida, it resisted the Democratic wave in 2018. For me, the Midwest and Florida are basically demographic unknowns ever four years, you just don't know for sure who has moved in or out, and that makes all the difference.
-Mail-in votes for Biden being disqualified. I helped a friend at his pharmacy once for a couple of months until he could find someone new. No one ever filled out the forms right, especially really poor people. So I have a big worry that a meaningful percentage of Biden mail-in votes will be disqualified and it costs Biden 2-3% in key states.
-A national tightening of 3-4 points by election day that make the above points magnified. The electoral college already spots Trump 3 or so points. Now, if Biden is up 7-10 points then the above points don't matter, if he's up only up 3-5 points then he could be in trouble and we're waiting days after the election to know who won.
I don't think people here are going to forget at this point. People saying "that's great, but vote" in every thread to the same group just limits discussion.
*1-877-KARS-4-KIDS commercial blares through car speakers*
VOTE
I don't give a shit how annoyed you are by people stressing the importance of voting in this election. It bears repeating again and again. If you think that "limits discussion" or whatever then you really don't understand the gravity of this election.
Woah, I agree with you! Was just making a joke about your commercial example. Apologies for not being more clear. I'm far more annoyed by those who are annoyed by it. Complacency is the one thing that terrifies me about the years after this election should the Dems win big.
Do you think Trumps staff hides the truth from him and just feed him a diet of "internal polling" etc to make him think he's up in the polls?
You know how if something is annoying, it's really fucking annoying? Like when someone keeps steering all conversation towards how you should watch their favourite TV show and you go out of your way to avoid the show because of how annoying the person is.
People should vote, it can be repeated too much in the wrong places, in reality you're probably not making it so any one doesn't vote, but you definitely aren't convincing anyone to either. Nobody reading this thread about the election needs to be reminded about the election.
Okay, I'm just going to get this off my chest.
Yes, it is very very important that people vote. This election's importance cannot be understated, and the more people are pushed to vote, the better. I cannot stress that enough. Please fucking vote, so mentally disabled and poor people like me can breathe at least a tiny bit in relief before the fight continues with a (hopefully) Biden presidency. I worry about people being complacent and apathetic to voting all the time, because that's a major reason why we're in this mess in the first place. And that worry of mine is only going to increase when people inevitably think "okay Dem's elected president we're done here" like they did with Obama's first election victory. I hope that doesn't end up being the case, since 2016 has traumatized everyone, and people are permanently politically active and engaged, but I'm so pessimistic about that. Ugh.
That said, I think it's perfectly okay to discuss the polls too. You can do both. I think people around here fully understand the need to vote anyway. In fact, it's very possible that everyone here already voted. And even then, whether that's true or not, no problem. Keep encouraging people to vote. I seriously do not mind this. That's not the issue, and I feel I need to emphasize that because I feel like people are missing the point.
In my opinion, it's not that you're telling people to vote. Again, please keep doing that, because it does help. It really does. I've been seeing the push to vote happening so much and in so many places I've never seen before in my life, and that really warms my heart <3. But I feel like people are using this as an excuse to shut down any and all discussion about even the slightest topic about polls, and any criticism of this is met with "you don't understand the importance of this election" or "I don't give a shit about what you think". People don't even have to say they're annoyed by it, they just have to disagree with the efforts to shut down discussion, even if it's their first post in the thread, and an angry mob descends on them.
It's a forum for debate and discussion. It's a thread about what is, in my opinion, the most important election of our lives. Let's discuss how things are looking. As someone that believes that the only poll that really matters is the one where people actually vote and winners are declared, the polls so far have been crazy, and they've only gotten crazier as time has passed. I've never seen anything like it, and I actually want to talk about it. The way Biden's polling, he's accomplishing things I never thought possible, and I want to discuss that. But you may as well be putting up a giant sign that says "no, shut up". No, that doesn't mean I'm going to be complacent. I plan to vote, and I've donated to the necessary causes as best as I can, despite my very limited funds. I know I'm not alone in this thread. All of us want to see these fascist GOP assholes gone. And voting is most certainly going to solve that. Again, please fucking vote. For the love of god VOTE VOTE VOTE.
But in my opinion, it's one thing to tell people to vote. It's another thing entirely to (not literally but metaphorically) tell people to shut up for just wanting to discuss the topic at-hand. I think if discussions about the polls themselves happened along with the mass encouragement to vote, the pushback that is going on from some people wouldn't be happening, or at the very least, not on this scale.
And once again...please. Fucking. VOTE.
Yes, it is very very important that people vote. This election's importance cannot be understated, and the more people are pushed to vote, the better. I cannot stress that enough. Please fucking vote, so mentally disabled and poor people like me can breathe at least a tiny bit in relief before the fight continues with a (hopefully) Biden presidency. I worry about people being complacent and apathetic to voting all the time, because that's a major reason why we're in this mess in the first place. And that worry of mine is only going to increase when people inevitably think "okay Dem's elected president we're done here" like they did with Obama's first election victory. I hope that doesn't end up being the case, since 2016 has traumatized everyone, and people are permanently politically active and engaged, but I'm so pessimistic about that. Ugh.
That said, I think it's perfectly okay to discuss the polls too. You can do both. I think people around here fully understand the need to vote anyway. In fact, it's very possible that everyone here already voted. And even then, whether that's true or not, no problem. Keep encouraging people to vote. I seriously do not mind this. That's not the issue, and I feel I need to emphasize that because I feel like people are missing the point.
In my opinion, it's not that you're telling people to vote. Again, please keep doing that, because it does help. It really does. I've been seeing the push to vote happening so much and in so many places I've never seen before in my life, and that really warms my heart <3. But I feel like people are using this as an excuse to shut down any and all discussion about even the slightest topic about polls, and any criticism of this is met with "you don't understand the importance of this election" or "I don't give a shit about what you think". People don't even have to say they're annoyed by it, they just have to disagree with the efforts to shut down discussion, even if it's their first post in the thread, and an angry mob descends on them.
It's a forum for debate and discussion. It's a thread about what is, in my opinion, the most important election of our lives. Let's discuss how things are looking. As someone that believes that the only poll that really matters is the one where people actually vote and winners are declared, the polls so far have been crazy, and they've only gotten crazier as time has passed. I've never seen anything like it, and I actually want to talk about it. The way Biden's polling, he's accomplishing things I never thought possible, and I want to discuss that. But you may as well be putting up a giant sign that says "no, shut up". No, that doesn't mean I'm going to be complacent. I plan to vote, and I've donated to the necessary causes as best as I can, despite my very limited funds. I know I'm not alone in this thread. All of us want to see these fascist GOP assholes gone. And voting is most certainly going to solve that. Again, please fucking vote. For the love of god VOTE VOTE VOTE.
But in my opinion, it's one thing to tell people to vote. It's another thing entirely to (not literally but metaphorically) tell people to shut up for just wanting to discuss the topic at-hand. I think if discussions about the polls themselves happened along with the mass encouragement to vote, the pushback that is going on from some people wouldn't be happening, or at the very least, not on this scale.
And once again...please. Fucking. VOTE.
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My stance on voting is broadly that if I *have* a preferred outcome of the realistic ones, I have a responsibility to vote for it - because if I feel like there's a chance I could safely get away with not doing so, there must logically be a proportion of other people who also feel that way... and what if that proportion is too high?
There might be 80 voters for D and 20 voters for R, but you should always assume you're the 20th voter, not the 80th.
Yes. There was/is a guy whose job is literally to give him good news every day.
Sorry, didn't realize haha. That's exactly how I feel.
Vote.
I don't give a shit. Vote, too bad you're annoyed by it, but voting is a bit more important than me telling you you should play Final Fantasy 14 or watch every damn MCU movie.
Vote.
Let's put it this way, just about everyone is saying VOTE, regardless of posting odds increasingly favoring Biden. Everyone is still saying VOTE.
And Mail in/early voting is different this time around. More states are enabling it, Covid makes it a very attractive alternative to physically going to the polls and the number of voters taking advantage of it is clearly much higher than it's ever been. It's at the very least a noteworthy shifting dynamic in this election, not merely a "trap metric".
That 88% figure wasn't really wrong. Trump's path to victory in 2016 was very narrow and he pulled off a miracle win with around 70k votes in three states. Could that happen again? Yes. Is it less likely to happen a second time, based on the current state of the race? Yes.
The 1936 challenger did not exactly achieve resounding success come election day though...
I don't even see how this happens. LOL. Unless they're not accounting for bias in the polls.
Anyway, vote Trump out, please. Fuck him.
It is frustrating that polling can't really be discussed without people, who typically don't discuss polling, coming into a thread and creating a fantasy that those of us discussing polling are ... making false narratives, or are being arrogant, or aren't planning to vote, or something.
I'd imagine if you are a person on a videogame forum and you're actively discussing political polling, either 21 days, or 21 months, before an election then you're very likely to be a super-highly engaged voter. And nobody who discusses polling is ever, ever, like "Hey, we shouldn't vote because this one is IN THE BAG," no, if anybody believes that "it's in the bag" (which... again almost nobody does... We've all lived through 2016, most of us lived through 2000, and we remember primary races in 2018 where challenger candidates like Ayanna Pressley vastly outperformed their polling in the days and weeks leading up to the election) they believe that because we're all so determined to vote.
There are some interesting changes in just the last 2-3 weeks. 2+ weeks ago, while Biden was ahead in all of the critical swing states, if the polls were wrong in the same way that they were wrong in 2016, there was a very good chance that Trump could still pull off that inside straight and win the electoral college. In the last 2-3 weeks, the race seems to have broken out. What was a 6-7pt national polling average has now moved up to 10+ points, enough to make it very difficult for that to swing back into a competitive column. And what were 3-4pt averages have now shifted towards 4-6pt averages in some states. MOreover a lot of these swings are Trump's numbers staying relatively stable, while Biden's numbers are increasing, suggesting that many undecided voters are becoming more comfortable with the idea of voting for Biden over Trump. People making polling threads, myself included, have all said for months "This race is going to tighten," because there's an expectation that undecided voters would break for Trump in higher numbers than Biden, but so far, that doesn't really seem to be the case. THere's good evidence that undecided voters at this stage in the election simply prefer Biden, but more so, they widely preferred Trump in 2016. Even if Biden is only slightly preferred, let's say 55-45 by undecided voters (the polling evidence suggests this is higher, but even if we're being conservative here), there are fewer undecided voters in 2020 than there were in 2016, and in 2016, Trump trounced Hillary on that undecided column capturing something like 66% of them.
We've always had the caveat, in every polling thread, that "this is just a snapshot in time, things can change." Things can change, but for Trump to pull up to where he was in 2016, there would have to be something enormous. I don't put it past 2020 though. This year has been a huge clusterfuck and wheneevr we think we have a new story that is *the* narrative of the election, something else comes out and dethrones it. Trump was impeached 9 months ago and that feels like ancient history.
kradical misinterpretted the title of the thread to mean that Landon was leading Roosevelt in the polls by this much as 1936. But what the thread title actually means is that 1936 was the first year of organized public polling on presidential elections. Really, the thread title should be "Joe Biden polling better than any challenger since presidential election polling has existed (1936)." Alf Landon never led Roosevelt in any polls.
THe reason 1936 is in the title is because it's the first year that George Gallup, of whom Gallup Polling is named after, used scientific modelling to predict an election.. which he correctly predicted for Roosevelt (Gallup never showed Landon leading, and had him down by double digits in October, and this election was not close). There was a publication -- called 'The Literary Digest' -- that did non-scientific election predictions prior to 1936, about as far back as 1890, and it had correctly predicted 5 previous presidential elections, but they did so without any scientific rigor... BAsically relying on reply cards mailed out in their magazines. If anybody is ever interested in reading about polling history it's a popular narrative/line throughout Jill Lepore's history book These Truths. Particularly around how polling has shaped politics.
I likened it to the statement that "Donald Trump is the worst president for jobs since 1948," which some might interpret means that Harry Truman was a worse president for jobs than Donald Trump (he wasn't, job growth exploded in the post-war), but in reality, the 1948 is just the first year that the Dept. of Labor tracked job creation the way it does today.
I'd imagine if you are a person on a videogame forum and you're actively discussing political polling, either 21 days, or 21 months, before an election then you're very likely to be a super-highly engaged voter. And nobody who discusses polling is ever, ever, like "Hey, we shouldn't vote because this one is IN THE BAG," no, if anybody believes that "it's in the bag" (which... again almost nobody does... We've all lived through 2016, most of us lived through 2000, and we remember primary races in 2018 where challenger candidates like Ayanna Pressley vastly outperformed their polling in the days and weeks leading up to the election) they believe that because we're all so determined to vote.
There are some interesting changes in just the last 2-3 weeks. 2+ weeks ago, while Biden was ahead in all of the critical swing states, if the polls were wrong in the same way that they were wrong in 2016, there was a very good chance that Trump could still pull off that inside straight and win the electoral college. In the last 2-3 weeks, the race seems to have broken out. What was a 6-7pt national polling average has now moved up to 10+ points, enough to make it very difficult for that to swing back into a competitive column. And what were 3-4pt averages have now shifted towards 4-6pt averages in some states. MOreover a lot of these swings are Trump's numbers staying relatively stable, while Biden's numbers are increasing, suggesting that many undecided voters are becoming more comfortable with the idea of voting for Biden over Trump. People making polling threads, myself included, have all said for months "This race is going to tighten," because there's an expectation that undecided voters would break for Trump in higher numbers than Biden, but so far, that doesn't really seem to be the case. THere's good evidence that undecided voters at this stage in the election simply prefer Biden, but more so, they widely preferred Trump in 2016. Even if Biden is only slightly preferred, let's say 55-45 by undecided voters (the polling evidence suggests this is higher, but even if we're being conservative here), there are fewer undecided voters in 2020 than there were in 2016, and in 2016, Trump trounced Hillary on that undecided column capturing something like 66% of them.
We've always had the caveat, in every polling thread, that "this is just a snapshot in time, things can change." Things can change, but for Trump to pull up to where he was in 2016, there would have to be something enormous. I don't put it past 2020 though. This year has been a huge clusterfuck and wheneevr we think we have a new story that is *the* narrative of the election, something else comes out and dethrones it. Trump was impeached 9 months ago and that feels like ancient history.
The 1936 challenger did not exactly achieve resounding success come election day though...
kradical misinterpretted the title of the thread to mean that Landon was leading Roosevelt in the polls by this much as 1936. But what the thread title actually means is that 1936 was the first year of organized public polling on presidential elections. Really, the thread title should be "Joe Biden polling better than any challenger since presidential election polling has existed (1936)." Alf Landon never led Roosevelt in any polls.
THe reason 1936 is in the title is because it's the first year that George Gallup, of whom Gallup Polling is named after, used scientific modelling to predict an election.. which he correctly predicted for Roosevelt (Gallup never showed Landon leading, and had him down by double digits in October, and this election was not close). There was a publication -- called 'The Literary Digest' -- that did non-scientific election predictions prior to 1936, about as far back as 1890, and it had correctly predicted 5 previous presidential elections, but they did so without any scientific rigor... BAsically relying on reply cards mailed out in their magazines. If anybody is ever interested in reading about polling history it's a popular narrative/line throughout Jill Lepore's history book These Truths. Particularly around how polling has shaped politics.
I likened it to the statement that "Donald Trump is the worst president for jobs since 1948," which some might interpret means that Harry Truman was a worse president for jobs than Donald Trump (he wasn't, job growth exploded in the post-war), but in reality, the 1948 is just the first year that the Dept. of Labor tracked job creation the way it does today.
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I just want to say that I appreciate your posts through this whole election cycle - and especially for that polling thread you made. You always seem to have a very well informed and measured take on the data as it comes out, and I think it helps those of us that actually want to see it for what it is versus the folks that would rather continue to worry and offer nothing to the discussion other than "vote". Those posts are far less helpful, and if those folks actually took the time to educate themselves on the polling or even just read your posts - discussions here would be a lot better.
So thank you for all your input on all these things.
Something interesting is that the state polls haven't really followed the national polling as closely at least in their rate of change. Like, Biden shifting from +6.5 polling average to +10.5 polling average in less than one month is a huge shift in one month. It's something that you usually see in the waning days of an election (like Obama / Romney in 2012, which was a very even race for most of it, and then Obama saw a significant shift in the final 2 weeks and ended up winning the election by 4+ points, and over 51%).
But, you're not quite seeing that shift in battlegrounds.
So the tightest this race has been nationally by 538 poll average is around mid-sept, Sept 16-18, it was a 6.6+ Advantage for Biden. Today it's 10.4, a difference of +3.8. So let's go through battlegrounds and track the differences.
Arizona is the outlier here, falling consistently over the last month, and Arizona is really an important state that if Biden grabs it, it narrows Trump's path to victory in which he can't realistically win without pulling 2/3 between PA, Michigan, and Wisc, and every other swing state and Trump-lean.
It'll be interesting to see if state polling catches up with national polling. If MI and WI catch up, then it'll be hard for Trump. Florida is trending in the right way but still close. If Biden wins FLorida and Pennsylvania, though, then Trump has no map. He'd have to win the entire midwest swings, MI, Wi, MN, OH, and IA, all the sunbelt swings AZ and NV. ANd it just becomes very unlikely that if Trump loses Florida and PA that he's going to sweep the midwest and sunbelt swing states.
Thanks mate, I appreciate it.
But, you're not quite seeing that shift in battlegrounds.
So the tightest this race has been nationally by 538 poll average is around mid-sept, Sept 16-18, it was a 6.6+ Advantage for Biden. Today it's 10.4, a difference of +3.8. So let's go through battlegrounds and track the differences.
- Michigan: Mid-Sept: Biden +7.5 | Today: Biden 8.0 (+0.5)
- Wisconsin: Mid-Sept: Biden +6.7 | Today: Biden 7.6 (+0.9)
- Pennsylvania: Mid-Sept: Biden +4.8 Biden | Today: Biden 7.1 (+3.3)
- North Carolina: Mid-Sept: Biden +1.2 | Today: Biden +3.4 (+2.2)
- Arizona: Mid-Sept: Biden +4.3 | Today: Biden +3.7 (-0.6)
- Florida: Mid-Sept: Biden +2.0 | Today: Biden +4.6 (+2.6)
- Iowa: Mid-Sept: Trump +2.0 | Today: Biden +1.1 (+3.1)
- Ohio: Mid-Sept: Trump +1.4 | Today: Biden +0.2 (+1.6)
Arizona is the outlier here, falling consistently over the last month, and Arizona is really an important state that if Biden grabs it, it narrows Trump's path to victory in which he can't realistically win without pulling 2/3 between PA, Michigan, and Wisc, and every other swing state and Trump-lean.
It'll be interesting to see if state polling catches up with national polling. If MI and WI catch up, then it'll be hard for Trump. Florida is trending in the right way but still close. If Biden wins FLorida and Pennsylvania, though, then Trump has no map. He'd have to win the entire midwest swings, MI, Wi, MN, OH, and IA, all the sunbelt swings AZ and NV. ANd it just becomes very unlikely that if Trump loses Florida and PA that he's going to sweep the midwest and sunbelt swing states.
Thanks mate, I appreciate it.
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