There's signs of them breaking for Biden since the "sacrifice grandma's life to make line go up" shtick is highly unpopular with them
There's signs of them breaking for Biden since the "sacrifice grandma's life to make line go up" shtick is highly unpopular with them
Fortunately, there were some good Wisconsin and Michigan polls today too.agreed. Positive news. but we need swing states to come out in force.
Trump will win florida for sure
Due to our broken EC system, national polls don't really mean all that much for Democrats unless they're up at least 5 points. And even then, margin of error makes it difficult to feel comfortable.If only we lived in a country where the popular vote mattered....
I'm still optimistic (which is a huge change from not that long ago), but national polls are so annoying for this reason.
Turns out being sacrificed at the alter is a hard pill to swallow even for racists.
Honestly, with all this yelling of "GO VOTE" in Era
I wonder if people will be interested in a Get Out the Vote thread that has volunteer resources like phone banking and text banking? It's on the late side, but that way all this energy can be directed into something that may actually make a difference
its ok, we all have our "lyric mistakes". just like how in Bad Moon Rising I thought John Fogerty said "there's a bathroom on the right"
Some have, some havent. In my mind, if we were taking every possibility as seriously as you should, we wouldn't see as many folks hyping unprecedented mail in ballots totals or national polling. Mail in/early voting has always been a trap metric that often isnt a sign of anything at the end of the day.Who is "y'all" supposed to refer to here? Because it can't possibly be the folks here at Era, who have very regularly worried over this very same kind of scenario you've raised, many times before this.
And the other day I quoted a post that said because Biden was up +7 nationally, the odds of him losing are "vanishingly small." On October 17, 2016 Hillary had an 88% chance to win the election according to 538.
I wouldn't be so sure. There are a lot of pissed off dems here, the amount of people that have come out to get the vote in already is insane compared to 2016. There are a lot of racist shitbags here but there are a lot of signs that a good chunk of seniors or moving towards Biden now.
I just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.I wouldn't be so sure. There are a lot of pissed off dems here, the amount of people that have come out to get the vote in already is insane compared to 2016. There are a lot of racist shitbags here but there are a lot of signs that a good chunk of seniors or moving towards Biden now.
Idk about you all but I read 856 "vote" posts on ResetEra and it just did not register for me at all.
Then, I read "vote" for the 857th time, and it finally clicked and I was like "Hmm ok, I'll vote."
So thanks everyone for saying "vote" over and over for the past year because I wouldn't have gotten it otherwise.
Didn't he have a scandal? I know it still sucks and shouldn't matter, but I think it did play a huge factorI just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
Yes but this is a referendum on Trump, not a governor's race. A lot has happened in the last two years. Hell, this year has changed everything. I'm not saying it's in the bag, but there's vastly different circumstances.I just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
Some nothing burger surrounding theater tickets, I don't think that qualifies as a type of election unrailing event, especially in a post 2016 world.Didn't he have a scandal? I know it still sucks and shouldn't matter, but I think it did play a huge factor
2018 was as much a referendum on Trump as anything, the fervor among Democrats to retake the House was pushing unprecedented participation in the primary. Maybe the more relevant differences involve the type of candidate Biden is compared to Gillum. Gillum was unabashedly progressive in a primary season that saw the most success for more moderate Democratic candidates.Yes but this is a referendum on Trump, not a governor's race. A lot has happened in the last two years. Hell, this year has changed everything. I'm not saying it's in the bag, but there's vastly different circumstances.
You're underestimating the amount of damage COVID has done to Trump's campaign this year, especially among seniors here in Florida. Like you said, Biden is seen as a moderate to a lot of these people vs Gillum. And, well, he's white, and hell Trump only beat Clinton by like...1% here...and that's with Clinton being one of the most unpopular candidates in recent memory. It's a very different ballgame this time.Some nothing burger surrounding theater tickets, I don't think that qualifies as a type of election unrailing event, especially in a post 2016 world.
2018 was as much a referendum on Trump as anything, the fervor among Democrats to retake the House was pushing unprecedented participation in the primary. Maybe the more relevant differences involve the type of candidate Biden is compared to Gillum. Gillum was unabashedly progressive in a primary season that saw the most success for more moderate Democratic candidates.
We're a month out to the election but I would expect the numbers to tighten rather than pull further apart, and the polling as its currently looking seems to imply that Biden might even have less support than Gillum had in 2018.*
It's gonna be a dead heat for both parties in Florida.
*Quinnipiac poll aside, seems like an outlier.
You know how if something is annoying, you remember it? Like advertising.Idk about you all but I read 856 "vote" posts on ResetEra and it just did not register for me at all.
Then, I read "vote" for the 857th time, and it finally clicked and I was like "Hmm ok, I'll vote."
So thanks everyone for saying "vote" over and over for the past year because I wouldn't have gotten it otherwise.
Glad to hear that it's working!Idk about you all but I read 856 "vote" posts on ResetEra and it just did not register for me at all.
Then, I read "vote" for the 857th time, and it finally clicked and I was like "Hmm ok, I'll vote."
So thanks everyone for saying "vote" over and over for the past year because I wouldn't have gotten it otherwise.
According to the average of the polls, they accurately predicted Gillum's vote share.I just keep getting flashbacks from the 2018 cycle where Andrew Gillum was consistently polling ahead of DeSantis and lost anyway. Democrats lost the Florida senate seat to former Governor Rick Scott as well. Hard to count on Florida.
Edit:
The difference may be in which demographics were pulling for Gillum though, the fact that Biden seems to be performing so much better with older voters than Hillary did in 2016 may be the deciding factor.
Hillary's chances tanked at the end because of a late October Surprise, that worked. Undecideds broke for Trump, and he barely won. It's hard to imagine an October Surprise that could accomplish the same thing now. People want Trump gone. Nothing is going to change that.
I don't think people here are going to forget at this point. People saying "that's great, but vote" in every thread to the same group just limits discussion.You know how if something is annoying, you remember it? Like advertising.
People should vote and it cannot be repeated enough
You know how if something is annoying, you remember it? Like advertising.
People should vote and it cannot be repeated enough
I don't think people here are going to forget at this point. People saying "that's great, but vote" in every thread to the same group just limits discussion.
I don't give a shit how annoyed you are by people stressing the importance of voting in this election. It bears repeating again and again. If you think that "limits discussion" or whatever then you really don't understand the gravity of this election.*1-877-KARS-4-KIDS commercial blares through car speakers*
VOTE
I don't give a shit how annoyed you are by people stressing the importance of voting in this election. It bears repeating again and again. If you think that "limits discussion" or whatever then you really don't understand the gravity of this election.
Yes.Hi ya'll, these polls seem pretty good so it's alright if I don't vote, right?
i live in a state that will never go Biden and i still can't wait to vote Trump out
You know how if something is annoying, you remember it? Like advertising.
People should vote and it cannot be repeated enough
Maybe the best way for Democrats in America to approach this is just assume that it's neck and neck, and one vote might make all the difference.
Do you think Trumps staff hides the truth from him and just feed him a diet of "internal polling" etc to make him think he's up in the polls?
Woah, I agree with you! Was just making a joke about your commercial example. Apologies for not being more clear. I'm far more annoyed by those who are annoyed by it. Complacency is the one thing that terrifies me about the years after this election should the Dems win big.
Vote.You know how if something is annoying, it's really fucking annoying? Like when someone keeps steering all conversation towards how you should watch their favourite TV show and you go out of your way to avoid the show because of how annoying the person is.
People should vote, it can be repeated too much in the wrong places, in reality you're probably not making it so any one doesn't vote, but you definitely aren't convincing anyone to either. Nobody reading this thread about the election needs to be reminded about the election.
Let's put it this way, just about everyone is saying VOTE, regardless of posting odds increasingly favoring Biden. Everyone is still saying VOTE.Some have, some havent. In my mind, if we were taking every possibility as seriously as you should, we wouldn't see as many folks hyping unprecedented mail in ballots totals or national polling. Mail in/early voting has always been a trap metric that often isnt a sign of anything at the end of the day.
And the other day I quoted a post that said because Biden was up +7 nationally, the odds of him losing are "vanishingly small." On October 17, 2016 Hillary had an 88% chance to win the election according to 538.
That 88% figure wasn't really wrong. Trump's path to victory in 2016 was very narrow and he pulled off a miracle win with around 70k votes in three states. Could that happen again? Yes. Is it less likely to happen a second time, based on the current state of the race? Yes.And the other day I quoted a post that said because Biden was up +7 nationally, the odds of him losing are "vanishingly small." On October 17, 2016 Hillary had an 88% chance to win the election according to 538.
Hi ya'll, these polls seem pretty good so it's alright if I don't vote, right?
Yup pretty much. They were on the nose for gillumAccording to the average of the polls, they accurately predicted Gillum's vote share.
49.4 average
49.2 actual
Just appears that the undecideds broke for DeSantis.
The 1936 challenger did not exactly achieve resounding success come election day though...
The 1936 challenger did not exactly achieve resounding success come election day though...
I don't even see how this happens. LOL. Unless they're not accounting for bias in the polls.
Anyway, vote Trump out, please. Fuck him.
I just want to say that I appreciate your posts through this whole election cycle - and especially for that polling thread you made. You always seem to have a very well informed and measured take on the data as it comes out, and I think it helps those of us that actually want to see it for what it is versus the folks that would rather continue to worry and offer nothing to the discussion other than "vote". Those posts are far less helpful, and if those folks actually took the time to educate themselves on the polling or even just read your posts - discussions here would be a lot better.
So thank you for all your input on all these things.