Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936

[Armadilo]

Article

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday was the latest poll to indicate Biden's strength. Biden led Trump by a 55% to 43% margin among likely voters. The poll was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50%. The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News.

Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53% and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day.

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In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.

In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.

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Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he'd still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. That's never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point.

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So yes keep voting and even in a blue state as your vote will cancel out a Trump vote because Republicans still vote no matter what.

Also it just shows that Biden has more going for him compared to Hillary. People only began to question polls because of the 2016 election, but have been a good indicator before then.

Still it's 50/50 of what can happen,
1) Don't be surprised of the amount of stupid people in America

2) How racist America can be

when considering what might unfortunately occur from what we learned after 2016.

 

[jon bones]

All this does is mitigate some of my dread & stress.

It needs to be a blowout & down ticket rout to save this country.

 

[Magni]

The challenger lost in 1936 (FDR was re-elected), so the headline was surprising to me.

The more accurate title is: Biden doing better at this point in the campaign than any other challenger since scientific polling first started (which was in 1936).

 

[Bitch Pudding]

That's cool. And now forget it and fucking vote.

 

[nsilvias]

i can only imagine how long the transition is going to feel if biden wins. so much can happen in 3 months before inauguration

 

[Flex1212]

Who cares - go out and vote today if you can.

 

[Mechaplum]

Come on USA please vote that faker out to raise the standards of everything under the sun.

 

[Matteo's CoffeeTruck]

<fingers in ear> LA LA LA LA.... let's not get complacent. Vote. Vote. VOTE.

 

[SteveMeister]

Never forget these factors that led to Clinton's defeat:
- people hated Clinton, after 30 years of incessant negativity, deserved or not
- people were not ready for a female president, particularly one many simply didn't like to begin with
- many people have a distaste for family dynasties in the presidency
- Comey's October surprise was the final blow and almost certainly the primary reason many independents turned away.

None of that is true for Biden. It helps a great deal that he comes across as humble and empathetic. He seems like a nice guy but isn't afraid to show emotion or deserved frustration. And he's a sympathetic figure due to his struggles with a speech impediment and personal tragedy.

 

[Culex]

A few hours of my elderly clients, and one in particular told me Trumps winning in a landslide. I think the opposite happening will actually kill him.

 

[Duncan]

Naw man.

Vote as if that orange asswipe is gonna win.

 

[Humidex]

Don't let off the gas, people. VOTE.

 

[Heraldic]

Honestly dislike stuff like this. Feels it just gives those unmotivated, lethargic , Americans an excuse to rationalize not voting. And they really don't need much of a push.

 

[TitlePending]

Even if Biden is going to win, everyone should vote to absolutely run up the score and leave no doubt that Trump is rejected.

Then Biden can rightfully claim a mandate to push legislation through because there's a lot of to be done ASAP.

 

[Pancho]

Very cool
VOTE

 

[Zelas]

That's fine, but I'll feel like yall are sleeping on the republican's desire to manipulate the election while backed by an admin who has no interest in holding those people accountable. They're already at nakedly cheering on the murder of protestors and plans to kill cops and government officials. There are state averages that arent as wide as the less meaningful national averages so margin of error + some shady behavior could produced unwanted results.

 

[mclem]

So yes keep voting and even in a blue state as your vote will cancel out a Trump vote because Republicans still vote no matter what.

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One thing I think it's worth keeping in mind is that the margin of victory - even in just the popular vote - would go a long way towards determining what sort of political capital the incoming government would have to enact change. If Biden could go to his inauguration making pledges for major reform, being able to do so on the grounds of being able to claim something along the lines of "In November, America made a very clear statement: This is wrong. This is tyrannical. This is not America" would give an awful lot more leverage.

 

[YozoraXV]

Hopefully news like this causes the less diehard Trump supporters not to bother to vote.

 

[shinobi602]

The fact that even 43% of Americans still support that sack of shit after everything is absolute insanity. I will never give any Trump supporter one ounce of respect.

 

[ann3nova.]

Fuck. The. Polls.

Vote.

 

[Eoin]

The challenger lost in 1936 (FDR was re-elected), so the headline was surprising to me.

The more accurate title is: Biden doing better at this point in the campaign than any other challenger since scientific polling first started (which was in 1936).

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In 1936 polling was only barely a science. Even the term "psephology" was not coined until over a decade later.

What happened in 1936 was that a popular weekly magazine sent out millions of questionnaire asking its readers who they would vote for. They got a fraction of the back (they were popular enough that that meant they got millions of them back), counted them, and published the results. So there was a "poll" that showed Landon way ahead in 1936, it was just deeply flawed.

The more scientific polls for that election all predicted an FDR win. I'm pretty sure they're all Gallup polls.

 

[Chaos Legion]

Headline is dumb since Alf Landon got destroyed...

 

[Ouroboros]

DON'T BELIEVE POLLING AND VOTE!

 

[BossAttack]

Cool, vote.

 

[Box]

Just bloody vote.

E: This sentiment seems to have power haha

 

[Muse98]

I think most people are forgetting a big reason why Trump won...he was an unknown, 2016 was an election against the status quo...this time around people know Trump is a fraud.

 

[Huncho_Houdini]

All this does is mitigate some of my dread & stress.

It needs to be a blowout & down ticket rout to save this country.

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yeah in any other year I'd be super confident but still shook from 2016.
Good to see nonetheless.

 

[Temascos]

Don't just beat Trump, annihiliate the GOP from electoral politics. Now and forever. Every strand of government, every county, every Sherriff, Mayor, Senator, School Board, you name it, throw them out on their asses.

When the Democrats are in, you can then hold them to account and primary them if they are too forgiving of their Republican "colleagues" who have broken the rules without consequence.

 

[entremet]

Never forget these factors that led to Clinton's defeat:
- people hated Clinton, after 30 years of incessant negativity, deserved or not
- people were not ready for a female president, particularly one many simply didn't like to begin with
- many people have a distaste for family dynasties in the presidency
- Comey's October surprise was the final blow and almost certainly the primary reason many independents turned away.

None of that is true for Biden. It helps a great deal that he comes across as humble and empathetic. He seems like a nice guy but isn't afraid to show emotion or deserved frustration. And he's a sympathetic figure due to his struggles with a speech impediment and personal tragedy.

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Comey's surprise seems to tame compared to what Trump has done lol. Blackmail countries congressional funding for political gain, violating the Hatch Act still, lying about COVID-19 and botching COVID-19.

I wonder how history treats Comey?

 

[Zache]

something something VOTE

 

[Secretofmateria]

A few hours of my elderly clients, and one in particular told me Trumps winning in a landslide. I think the opposite happening will actually kill him.

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lmao same situation at my job. I just smile and nod. Ive gotten good at biting my toungue

 

[Magni]

In 1936 polling was only barely a science. Even the term "psephology" was not coined until over a decade later.

What happened in 1936 was that a popular weekly magazine sent out millions of questionnaire asking its readers who they would vote for. They got a fraction of the back (they were popular enough that that meant they got millions of them back), counted them, and published the results. So there was a "poll" that showed Landon way ahead in 1936, it was just deeply flawed.

The more scientific polls for that election all predicted an FDR win. I'm pretty sure they're all Gallup polls.

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Thanks for the clarification, I was just paraphrasing a bit of the article:

But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.

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But what you mentioned doesn't sound very scientific indeed.

 

[Tokyo_Funk]

When the opposition could be replaced with a literal bag of horse shit with a mop head sitting on top and no one would no better, it's not surprising.

 

[gozu]

Nothing short of 54 Democratic senators will count as a true victory for me. Even this is pitiful. Obama's election saw 60 senators gained for the dem conference, including Sanders and that POS Lieberman as the only 2 indies, I think.

Still! This is a great to hear because you know Trump is feeling the heat of justice closing in.

More good news, my florida ballot was received:

Compared to my previous ballot this year, it took one extra day to arrive home and one extra day to arrive to the precinct.

So, it seems that despite Tump's attempts to fuck with vote by mail, all he has accomplished in Florida is shortening the mail-in window by MAYBE one day so far. One day is not nothing, to be sure, and every single bit count, but STILL, this is also good news.

I am a firm believer that people are extremely lazy and the easiest option should always be offered to them. The only reason so few people vote by mail here is that you need to physically mail in a request for a mail ballot. They should offer the ability of doing it online or better yet: Just send the ballots to everybody by default*. Those who don't want to use the mail can drop off their ballot in person and save everybody time and reduce lines tremendously.

It's a win-win. And those who don't want to vote can burn it or tear it up and toss it. Why is this not a thing?


*it requires a few adjustments in ballot design but it can absolutely be done.

 

[SteveMeister]

Comey's surprise seems to tame compared to what Trump has done lol. Blackmail countries congressional funding for political gain, violating the Hatch Act still, lying about COVID-19 and botching COVID-19.

I wonder how history treats Comey?

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Definitely. One thing I left out of my list was that those of us who were paying attention in 2016 knew exactly what kind of person Trump was. Now, everyone knows, and he's even worse than feared. If it wasn't his xenophobic, racist policies, his self aggrandizing behavior, his embrace of nepotism and corruption, his misogyny and fascist behavior, he has proven that his response to crisis is to disavow responsibility and blame others, deny and discredit in the face of science, and ultimately pay for his hubris by contracting the disease itself. Add to that the humiliation of his tax records revealing just how awful he is at business and he's squandered any lenience he may have had from any but his staunchest supporters.

That said, of course, everyone go out & vote, and most importantly ensure your voter registration is valid and if you aren't voting in person, to follow directions extremely carefully. The Republicans don't want to lose power and have shown they are willing to do whatever it takes to keep it.

 

[Soda]

That's fine, but I'll feel like yall are sleeping on the republican's desire to manipulate the election while backed by an admin who has no interest in holding those people accountable. They're already at nakedly cheering on the murder of protestors and plans to kill cops and government officials. There are state averages that arent as wide as the less meaningful national averages so margin of error + some shady behavior could produced unwanted results.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, there are many important states with very slim margins. Trump can still win this very easily. I'll relax when Biden is sworn in to office.

 

[CreepingFear]

72-10 don't mean a thing without the ring. Polling don't mean shit unless it means a quick and decisive victory on election night.

 

[kradical]

The 1936 challenger did not exactly achieve resounding success come election day though...

 

[JoJo'sDentCo]

The fact that even 43% of Americans still support that sack of shit after everything is absolute insanity. I will never give any Trump supporter one ounce of respect.

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Yup. It's horrifying.

 

[Silver-Streak]

Good. Here's hoping it bores out to the biggest political landslide in centuries. Don't let this just be polling, people. Go vote. Get your friends to vote. Advocate for initiatives that help others vote.

 

[Yerffej]

Just imagine if every election, Democrats didn't sit on their asses and got motivated like they are this year. We wouldn't be in the mess we are. Where even with a landslide victory, we have to endure an entire generation of unqualified judges making important decisions around the country because Republicans kept their eye on the ball and sloughed off any shame in getting that power.

 

[DaveB]

Reports like this lost all meaning after 2016. Everyone projected a Clinton win and then we ended up with the orange asshat. I didn't like Hillary at all, but I voted for her because I hate Trump. I'm absolutely Ridin' with Biden this November!

 

[wollywinka]

A few hours of my elderly clients, and one in particular told me Trumps winning in a landslide. I think the opposite happening will actually kill him.

Click to shrink...

If a crushing defeat for Trump is enough to kill your client, maybe he'll be in a better place, one where he can't ever vote again.

 

[Orb]

I will be happy if Trump gets defeated but I fear it's just going to lead to big brain Democrats thinking running candidates like Biden for the rest of all time is the answer to all our problems.

 

[HeySeuss]

If it isn't an unquestionable land slide victory for Biden, Trump will turn it into a shitshow. Well he will anyway but if it comes down to mail in ballots we're in for some serious fuckery.

 

[manzoman96]

Dont care, everybody gotta vote!

 

[SnatcherHunter]

Nothing short of 54 Democratic senators will count as a true victory for me. Even this is pitiful. Obama's election saw 60 senators gained for the dem conference, including Sanders and that POS Lieberman as the only 2 indies, I think.

Still! This is a great to hear because you know Trump is feeling the heat of justice closing in.

More good news, my florida ballot was received:

Compared to my previous ballot this year, it took one extra day to arrive home and one extra day to arrive to the precinct.

So, it seems that despite Tump's attempts to fuck with vote by mail, all he has accomplished in Florida is shortening the mail-in window by MAYBE one day so far. One day is not nothing, to be sure, and every single bit count, but STILL, this is also good news.

I am a firm believer that people are extremely lazy and the easiest option should always be offered to them. The only reason so few people vote by mail here is that you need to physically mail in a request for a mail ballot. They should offer the ability of doing it online or better yet: Just send the ballots to everybody by default*. Those who don't want to use the mail can drop off their ballot in person and save everybody time and reduce lines tremendously.

It's a win-win. And those who don't want to vote can burn it or tear it up and toss it. Why is this not a thing?


*it requires a few adjustments in ballot design but it can absolutely be done.

Click to shrink...

How long did it take? I sent mine last Thursday.

 

[Dankir]

Doesn't matter, Trump needs to be fucking crushed. VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE

 

[gozu]

How long did it take? I sent mine last Thursday.

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5 business days from me sending it to the form showing it received.

 

[Deleted member 3017]

Reality: Highest voter turnout in over 100 years

Era: OMG THESE ARTICLES ARE MAKING PEOPLE COMPLACENT!!!