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Jason Schreier: Stadia looks to be a "monumental flop", pre-orders are below expectations

Meatwad

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,653
USA
BlueManifest said:
Success of this platform isn't going to be determined by launch
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Console industry is heavily momentum based, so that is nonsense. A poor launch for any console can have ramifications for it's entire lifecycle.

Google is especially vulnerable to a poor launch because they are new to the industry and are currently more reliant of third party support than any of the big three.

For sure there is still time for them to turn it around but they need to act quickly
 
BlueManifest

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,331
Meatwad said:
Console industry is heavily momentum based, so that is nonsense. A poor launch for any console can have ramifications for it's entire lifecycle.

Google is especially vulnerable to a poor launch because they are new to the industry and are currently more reliant of third party support than any of the big three.

For sure there is still time for them to turn it around but they need to act quickly
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This isn't a traditional console there's no comparison
 
Dunlop

Dunlop

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,479
Meatwad said:
Console industry is heavily momentum based, so that is nonsense. A poor launch for any console can have ramifications for it's entire lifecycle.

Google is especially vulnerable to a poor launch because they are new to the industry and are currently more reliant of third party support than any of the big three.

For sure there is still time for them to turn it around but they need to act quickly
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When this thing finally goes live "for real" they just need you to click on a link and buy the game. There is no hardware consideration to enter the ecosystem.

The question is will Google respond to the neutral PR in the interim. Right now they are dropping the ball
 
Olaf

Olaf

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,419
When reading impressions, remember that some people can experience +200ms of input lag and deem in "not noticeable". This is usually the same people who use motion smoothing on their TVs, which always adds additional lag.
 
AtomicShroom

AtomicShroom

Tools & Automation
Verified
Oct 28, 2017
3,079
HBK said:
They probably thought people wouldn't either care or notice.

I mean I'm sure many around here play on badly setup displays with 150+ ms "input lag" and aren't even aware.

But the issue with "input lag" is that's it's purely cumulative (negative latency lol).

Your controller -> few ms, especially if wireless.

The game engine -> usually one frame at the very least, so ~16ms or ~33ms bare minimum (usually more like two or three frames these days, so even at 60 fps boom ~50ms, and ~100ms at 30 fps).

The display -> depends on the display, few are able to go below 20ms. Many are in the 20-50ms range IIRC. And it's easy to enable "image enhancement options" that push it beyond the 100ms line.

The network -> depends on the network obviously, but best case scenario you're at 20ms (in a vacuum controlled lab environment), but more realistically you're happy if you're under 50ms.

And the thing is that it's all cumulative, and it's a typical threshold effect. I mean even myself which is picky about this I'm sure on my setup my complete "input lag" is between 80~100ms most of the time, which is quite a bit but low enough not to be noticeable in most games. But if I would add 50ms from a network-powered cloud device, that would raise it to 150ms and that's where I would start "feeling" it. And that's not a good feeling.

Edit: And of course now imagine someone playing with a setup producing 200ms lag and not really noticing it even though I'm sure I would. You add 50ms from the network. You raise it to 250ms, and I can guarantee even the most casual player will feel something is off when you have a QUARTER OF A SECOND of lag between your inputs and what you see. It's not something that's linear. At some point it simply starts being a nuisance even though not much lower values were acceptable.
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One of the most important considerations is network stability. The dream scenario that most people envision is simply impossible in most standard situations. In this day and age of every device you own being IoT and people sharing connections, you can almost never guarantee a stable environment. At any moment any of your smart devices may decide to start downloading updates, your friend or family member might start downloading a torrent or stream something. Combine that with typical shit routers that people have, and you can kiss goodbye to your Stadia performance. I expect most people to start getting increasingly frustrated at the instability of the experience, spikes of degradation in responsiveness or image quality. God help you if two people in the same house want to play Stadia at the same time on the same router. The only way you can ever ensure a good reliable experience is if your Stadia is the only device using your internet, or if you're on 5G on mobile. Good luck.
 
HBK

HBK

Member
Oct 30, 2017
7,986
Meatwad said:
Console industry is heavily momentum based, so that is nonsense. A poor launch for any console can have ramifications for it's entire lifecycle.
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They can launch Stadia 2 in 6 months and treat it as a new launch.

Those bad launch issues can always be kinda circumvented, especially as the current one seems rather inconsequential so far.
 
Meatwad

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,653
USA
BlueManifest said:
This isn't a traditional console there's no comparison
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Yes there is a comparison. It is a platform that sells games for full retail games that developers have to spend time and resources porting to Stadia and publishers have to spend money on.

So obviously publishers want return on investment by selling games, and you can sell more games and sell them more reliably when the platform has a massive and active install base.

So Google's obligation then to it's third party partners is to grow Stadia's userbase as quickly as possible and as much as possible.

Third party publishers do not want to see a bad launch because then they might think they've wasted resources on the platform and might drop out of investing in Stadia any further.

If that starts happening it would then make it harder for Stadia to regain momentum and Stadia could potentially get caught in a death spiral.

Stadia being in the "cloud" doesn't magically make the realities of business disappear
 
HBK

HBK

Member
Oct 30, 2017
7,986
AtomicShroom said:
One of the most important considerations is network stability. The dream scenario that most people envision is simply impossible in most standard situations. In this day and age of every device you own being IoT and people sharing connections, you can almost never guarantee a stable environment. At any moment any of your smart devices may decide to start downloading updates, your friend or family member might start downloading a torrent or stream something. Combine that with typical shit routers that people have, and you can kiss goodbye to your Stadia performance. I expect most people to start getting increasingly frustrated at the instability of the experience, spikes of degradation in responsiveness or image quality. God help you if two people in the same house want to play Stadia at the same time on the same router. The only way you can ever ensure a good reliable experience is if your Stadia is the only device using your internet, or if you're on 5G on mobile. Good luck.
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Yes, obviously, even disregarding "local issues" (multiple people on the same line etc), network latency and/or bandwidth will always have some variation, and that's not even counting Google's side of things where they'll have to dynamically manage the load depending on peak hours.
 
Meatwad

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,653
USA
HBK said:
They can launch Stadia 2 in 6 months and treat it as a new launch.

Those bad launch issues can always be kinda circumvented, especially as the current one seems rather inconsequential so far.
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And then Stadia 2 would be supported by absolutely nobody because all confidence in Google's platform strategy would be lost
 
BlueManifest

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,331
Meatwad said:
Yes there is a comparison. It is a platform that sells games for full retail games that developers have to spend time and resources porting to Stadia and publishers have to spend money on.

So obviously publishers want return on investment by selling games, and you can sell more games and sell them more reliably when the platform has a massive and active install base.

So Google's obligation then to it's third party partners is to grow Stadia's userbase as quickly as possible and as much as possible.

Third party publishers do not want to see a bad launch because then they might think they've wasted resources on the platform and might drop out of investing in Stadia any further.

If that starts happening it would then make it harder for Stadia to regain momentum and Stadia could potentially get caught in a death spiral.

Stadia being in the "cloud" doesn't magically make the realities of business disappear
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In February 2020 the worlds first free console will release and anyone that wants to try it will be able to, and no telling what improvements the service will have by then
 
Kyuuji

Kyuuji

The Favonius Fox
Member
Nov 8, 2017
32,231
Bladelaw said:
The bold is what made me drop my preorder. Given the comms and hype I was expecting ultra quality Destiny/MK11, whatever. I'm on a gig line with no cap so those problems weren't an issue for me, not having to constantly upgrade my computer for max visual performance was a massive selling point for me and it's just not there yet. I'm glad the tech works (mostly) since in theory that's the hard part. I'll wait for performance improvements before jumping in for real. I really want it to succeed, but wow have they dropped the ball at every opportunity.
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I can fully appreciate why as I navigated to the cancel page myself after that broke. There's no defence for it. The game they're marketing Stadia next to and including with Pro - the 4K service - isn't even hitting 4K res. Laughable.

I held off though and thought about it some more I don't have a Chromecast (don't need one mind, but hey - another thing to play with), it's a weird controller at the very least and if it works then the in-browser element would be cool on a novelty level + I don't have to buy anything else as Destiny included. Figure if it picks up hey, I'm already in but if not at least it was something a bit different lol.

As it turns out I'm fighting buying another game, in order to wait for the hardware. Should be here in a few hours and will see how it holds up on the TV and what the controller feels like. If it's good though I'll likely jump on something else. Which is crazy considering where I thought I was going to be at even before the poor reception.

I can't give them any praise for the rollout or launch. Completely bad to the point of bewildering. But the UI is nice, avatar illustrations cute and popping open Chrome after a conference call and playing Destiny 30s later is nuts enough for me to overlook the medium graphics for now.

Oh and I ended the session by giving 'Bacon' a hug in the tower, to which everyone crowded around for their own. I'm a sucker for the community aspect of launches and it's helped patch the negatives, even if it can't be accredited to Google.
 
Meatwad

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,653
USA
BlueManifest said:
In February 2020 the worlds first free console will release and anyone that wants to try it will be able to, and no telling what improvements the service will have by then
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It will only matter if these free users buy games and buy them regularly. We'll see what happens when that free tier launches
But right now this soft launch of Stadia isn't doing Google any favors
 
thePopaShots

thePopaShots

Member
Nov 27, 2017
1,688
I'm really looking forward to seeing what this tech is like in five years, but I doubt Google will still be in the game at that point.
 
Bowl0l

Bowl0l

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,608
BlueManifest said:
In February 2020 the worlds first free console will release and anyone that wants to try it will be able to, and no telling what improvements the service will have by then
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Nothing is free in this world. I forsee long periods of old games staying at full price while the free version experience gets worse over time because the free version will get the majority of Stadia player base.
 
HBK

HBK

Member
Oct 30, 2017
7,986
Meatwad said:
Right Google can overcome this, but to hand-wave this away as fine is absurd.

The house is on fire and Google needs to act quick to put it out.
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I'm not sure what they could do though. I mean the offer still makes little sense and it's not just a matter of pricing or a few missing features. The basics are messed up to begin with.
 
Eoin

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,103
Meatwad said:
It will only matter if these free users buy games and buy them regularly. We'll see what happens when that free tier launches
But right now this soft launch of Stadia isn't doing Google any favors
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Yes, I think the soft launch was a mistake. Phasing in bits and pieces of what they promised makes Stadia sound and look incomplete at launch, even if features are added quickly. Regardless of what Google say, the fact that people are now paying money for their service means that it's officially launched and they need to deal with people viewing it that way.

The free tier could boost the service, but I think a lot of people who would otherwise have been attracted by the idea of a "free" console will then be instantly turned off by the fact that they need to pay for games.

What might be interesting is the first time that a publisher wants to do a deep discount on a Stadia game. Some of the older games on Stadia commonly sell for single-digit numbers of dollars or Euro. Publishers might want to go for similar discounts on Stadia, either to stand out from the crowd or (more likely) to extract as many sales as possible from a small userbase. That could end up meaning publishers selling old games for €5 or so, committing Google to streaming potentially hundreds of hours of 1080p video for a €1.50 cut. Whether Google allow that or not will be a good indication of how serious they are.
 
Meatwad

Meatwad

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,653
USA
HBK said:
I'm not sure what they could do though. I mean the offer still makes little sense and it's not just a matter of pricing or a few missing features. The basics are messed up to begin with.
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I don't know honestly. This founder's edition launch was a monumentally stupid idea. Free tier should exist right now or the entire service should've launched next year.

But instead Google decided to prioritize selling Chromecasts and controllers for a platform whose key pitch is no hardware purchase required. Gatekeeping people who just want to jump in and play from trying the service and turning early adopters into paid beta testers.

Google should maybe fast track that free tier, get it setup before the year is out
 
klauskpm

klauskpm

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,248
Brazil
Meatwad said:
Yes there is a comparison. It is a platform that sells games for full retail games that developers have to spend time and resources porting to Stadia and publishers have to spend money on.

So obviously publishers want return on investment by selling games, and you can sell more games and sell them more reliably when the platform has a massive and active install base.

So Google's obligation then to it's third party partners is to grow Stadia's userbase as quickly as possible and as much as possible.

Third party publishers do not want to see a bad launch because then they might think they've wasted resources on the platform and might drop out of investing in Stadia any further.

If that starts happening it would then make it harder for Stadia to regain momentum and Stadia could potentially get caught in a death spiral.

Stadia being in the "cloud" doesn't magically make the realities of business disappear
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I completely agree with you. This horrible launch will hurt them by a lot. And I believe a lot of publishers and developers that were waiting to see how it landed, are scared to invest in it. That said, I think Streaming platforms, not just Stadia, are in for a unique position. It is incredibly cheap to go try it for yourself when they do an action to attract people.

As an example, I was burned by the XBO launch. There were several things that made me want to try and give Xbox a chance, like Game Pass. But upgrading my PC or buying an Xbox is a cost that I don't want to have to try it. So xCloud will come to save my day and get me to give Microsoft another chance.

Stadia did, and still are, doing a lot of things badly:
  • graphics' settings (that is the one that hurts the most)
  • prices (tho I think it will not be an issue for new releases)
  • hardware delivery
  • platform access (this one is unacceptable)
Even then, when they "release" the free version (whenever the fuck it is) with the free trials for both their service and games (I don't even know if it will be at the same time as the release), it will be even cheaper to try it out than other streaming services.
 

Deleted member 46489

User requested account closure
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Aug 7, 2018
1,979
Yeah, this launch is going to hurt Google a lot. All those people on r/stadia who were the staunchest supporters of the platform are now super pissed for a whole bunch of valid reasons. And even when they start playing, they'll play for a few weeks and then shove the controller in a drawer and forget about it. Most gamers have played all the games available on Stadia already, so once you get over the novelty, there's no reason to keep playing.

The rest of the gaming market will stop caring about Stadia pretty soon as well. And sure, Google might be able to launch a full-fledged version in 2020, but by then most people will probably choose to wait for XCloud instead, with its HUGE Gamepass catalogue and appealing subscription model. Quickly after that, major publishers will probably stop supporting Stadia. Porting to Stadia takes a lot of dev time and effort, and publishers might decide that it's better to spend that time making DLCs, new games, or even porting their games to more popular platforms.

Though I'm super excited about streaming, Stadia has been taking wrong steps from Day 1. And Microsoft (as much as I hate Windows 10) has been making all the right calls. I mean, they're expanding the beta to India early next year. That's aggressive and smart. And as a game-starved Indian, I can't wait for the service to arrive.
 
HBK

HBK

Member
Oct 30, 2017
7,986
Meatwad said:
Google should maybe fast track that free tier, get it setup before the year is out
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Yeah probably but even now you get games at medium settings and other stuff which are far from the "4k60" initial announcement (not that I believed it at the time, but that's another story). So now imagine what will be the free-tier service. 720p30 with low settings? Not sure many people will be happy with that.
 
BlueManifest

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,331
klauskpm said:
I completely agree with you. This horrible launch will hurt them by a lot. And I believe a lot of publishers and developers that were waiting to see how it landed, are scared to invest in it. That said, I think Streaming platforms, not just Stadia, are in for a unique position. It is incredibly cheap to go try it for yourself when they do an action to attract people.

As an example, I was burned by the XBO launch. There were several things that made me want to try and give Xbox a chance, like Game Pass. But upgrading my PC or buying an Xbox is a cost that I don't want to have to try it. So xCloud will come to save my day and get me to give Microsoft another chance.

Stadia did, and still are, doing a lot of things badly:
  • graphics' settings (that is the one that hurts the most)
  • prices (tho I think it will not be an issue for new releases)
  • hardware delivery
  • platform access (this one is unacceptable)
Even then, when they "release" the free version (whenever the fuck it is) with the free trials for both their service and games (I don't even know if it will be at the same time as the release), it will be even cheaper to try it out than other streaming services.
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I would take a complete guess and say 90% of people or gamers don't even know what stadia is or that it even exists, these people don't know and don't care what happened at launch, whenever they decide to try stadia for free when they see an ad that pops up on YouTube to play now. They aren't going to say oh yea remember that stadia launch? I'm not trying that
 
BlueManifest

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,331
Imagine if the cyberpunk launch trailer gets millions of views on YouTube in April and has a play now button at the end with a 1 hr stadia demo
 
klauskpm

klauskpm

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,248
Brazil
BlueManifest said:
I would take a complete guess and say 90% of people or gamers don't even know what stadia is or that it even exists, these people don't know and don't care what happened at launch whenever they decide to try stadia for free when they see an ad that pops up on YouTube to play now
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I agree with you that a lot of people don't know what Stadia is, but a lot of them are becoming aware of it because of the bad launch they are having and mass (justified) bad news across major outlets.

Still, as you said, one day, it will be easy to test Stadia and having their own opinion on it.
 
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