No way. Im not necessarily saying day 1 games but sony could pay much less than 7B to get square to commit to only putting games on PS Pass, and not XGP, for say 5 years, for a large fee. Doesn't mean FF16 is there day 1, just means when FF16 is at the point it can go to services like this, it would only go to PS Pass.
they could do it per IP too. Like Sony pays $50M to have Final Fantasy only go on PS Pass, whenever square decides they want to. Like square would commit to say putting a bunch of older classics and games on there, and commit to only putting new FF games on their if they put them on any service at all.
this is totally going to happen as game pass type services pop up
When your competition is gobbling up huge IP and keeping it exclusive to their ecosystem, then as a company, you need to be doing the same or coming up with huge IP as a counter move. Paying a large fee for timed subscription service exclusivity is dumb after you have paid for timed exclusivity. Sony could easily be spending $100 million, and at that point, why not just make your own game?
The last time Sony invested in studios over a short period of time was when the bought Guerrilla (2005), Zipper (2006), Bigbig, Evolution (2007) and at that time, it was because they knew they were going to lose default third party exclusives. Their latest investment spree has seen them acquire Insomniac, Bluepoint, Housemarque, Firesprite, Nixxes while expanding some of their other teams. It is transitioning towards having more first party content coming out, and porting more of their stuff themselves on PC.
Microsoft spending lose to $8B for Bethesda was the cost to acquire IP, tech, talent and a need to have total control of these IP. This is a platform holder that had seen former partners bought out, or change course; something that they could not control. Sony got Ghostwire and Deathloop as exclusives, but lost Starfield, The Elder Scrolls, Fallout, DOOM etc. It was a poor trade, and I think that this is similar.
The biggest appeal to Game Pass is games coming in day and date. Microsoft has their own games that hit the service day and date, and third party stuff that do the same be it stuff like MLB, Outriders, or next year something like S.T.A.L.K.E.R 2.
Sony would be daft to pay for timed exclusivity, gain sales or keep sales from leaking to another platform then pay money after sales are dead to keep a game from going to a subscription service. You are not wrong that there likely will be some misallocation of capital especially as these services try and figure out what the best way of spreading investment is when it comes to acquiring and retaining customers. That said, straight off the bat, this is possibly one of the worst moves I see happening.