Inside Joe Biden’s plan to avoid a midterm ‘shellacking’
Presidents traditionally get pummeled in the off years. Especially those in their first term. But Team Biden has a plan. And some Dems are cautiously optimistic.
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Inside Joe Biden's plan to avoid a midterm "shellacking"
- Thread starter ThisThingIsUseful
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I am glad this is on their minds and will be treated like a priority. Dems and voters alike need to prepare for the long game.
This is the one reason that Biden is the right guy for the job. Being angry at the GOP isn't gonna fuel every election, even though it feels like neglect on his part.
I say yes but I think she would say F that I am going to be governor (and then president).
It's going to be pretty hard to avoid mid-term losses. In my lifetime, the president's party has lost every first mid-term except for one, the election immediately following 9/11 which largely preserved the status quo (at least I think ... Assuming GH Bush lost seats in 1990? I was a child so I don't remember)
Benefitting Democrats are a few things:
- The Senate map is favorable for Democrats in 2022. It's not a homerun, but it's favorable. We're likely to pick up Pat Toomey's R seat in Pennsylvania as he retired. And Ron Johnson is an unpopular shithead in a state that leans D, Wisconsin. Those at +2, and while I think Warnock's seat is at risk in a midterm it might not necessarily be.
- The Trump affect. In the era of Trump, whenever he's not on the ballot, Republicans get destroyed. Ivanka will probably try to primary Marco Rubio, and it throws that race into a toss-up instead of lean R if she does. Trump may syphon votes away from Republicans who have given up on the democratic process because they feel like their godking got cheated by satan.
- An understated factor benefiting Democrats is that Biden will be the first president since ... like George HW Bush who actually has legitimate, lengthy experience in Washington and the legislative bodies, and the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to have that sort of experience. Since Nixon, every newly elected president has had very little experience in Washington, with the exception of one, George HW Bush.
Benefitting Democrats are a few things:
- The Senate map is favorable for Democrats in 2022. It's not a homerun, but it's favorable. We're likely to pick up Pat Toomey's R seat in Pennsylvania as he retired. And Ron Johnson is an unpopular shithead in a state that leans D, Wisconsin. Those at +2, and while I think Warnock's seat is at risk in a midterm it might not necessarily be.
- The Trump affect. In the era of Trump, whenever he's not on the ballot, Republicans get destroyed. Ivanka will probably try to primary Marco Rubio, and it throws that race into a toss-up instead of lean R if she does. Trump may syphon votes away from Republicans who have given up on the democratic process because they feel like their godking got cheated by satan.
- An understated factor benefiting Democrats is that Biden will be the first president since ... like George HW Bush who actually has legitimate, lengthy experience in Washington and the legislative bodies, and the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to have that sort of experience. Since Nixon, every newly elected president has had very little experience in Washington, with the exception of one, George HW Bush.
All the "make Stacey Abrams run everything" takes are sort of understandable given how she's widely credited for delivering the Senate to the Democrats. But local and state electoral politics don't just scale easily nationwide, and she's not the only person able to sign people up to vote. Abrams is better off doing what she is proven to be great at and continue building up the Georgia network.
Hope he's successful, I hope the last 4 years has waken democrats up and they won't just fall back to sleep like they did in 2010.
After 2018 and the Georgia runoffs I wonder if Trump was a singularity after all. It's not just about lower turnout without him but more understandable and predictable turnout. Statistics and polling seem to be effective still when "literally hiding under rocks" Trump voters aren't involved.
That would at least give dems better intelligence going into midterms, if they're going to be serious about this.
That would at least give dems better intelligence going into midterms, if they're going to be serious about this.
Agreed. Democrats thinking that Obama winning was the endgame, when in fact it was just the beginning.
Yes, please. What Stacey Abrams did in Georgia is absolutely replicable elsewhere if state parties are given the resources to do the work.
Man, Biden would be on the lookout for a shellacking, or a drubbing, or possibly even a varnishing. He's totally that guy.
What was that lesson? Didn't follow politics during Obama era like I do now so not sure what Dems did that f'ed em up.
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100%. The sentiment I totally get, and she deserves so much praise and is awesome for what she did. But we need people similar to Abrams who can build their parties. I'm honestly embarrassed as a Floridian that Georgia did what it did way quicker than we did. Democrats here are always stunned at how they can't quite finish, and one problem is that the party seems weak top to bottom.
Stacey Abrams is an exceptional person. We need to find more exceptional people in these states that are winnable.
Obama won in 2008 in part because he built his own network of organisers. After he took over the party, the party dismantled that network in favour of going back to their pre-Obama operatives. They probably would have taken a hit in the 2010 midterms no matter what, especially with all the FUD about the ACA, but the combination of those two things was absolutely catastrophic.
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They pursued, prior to 2008, a "50 state strategy" that led to massive gains in state legislatures, Congress, and a decisive presidential win. After building up huge House majorities and a huge Senate majority, they lost countless governors' mansions, state legislatures, and the House in 2010 in time for gerrymandering, with much politics being about states pushing back against Obama since they had clear Republican control. By the time 2017 hit, Republicans had trifectas in countless states, including decently populated ones, while Democrats had a sliver of power anywhere in the country.
They stopped the 50 state strategy and concentrated too much on getting Obama reelected, which I remember reading about around the beginning of his first term. Most parties do lose part of their power, but Obama/Democratic losses were historically huge.
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I always point to this:
Republicans controlled all branches of nearly half the US states, and in the states with divided government, they frequently had two of the three IIRC. Some of it has historical precedence, but this was historically a huge loss by the time Obama left.
This is how it is now:
Republicans actually gained full control in Montana and New Hampshire in 2020 after divided government prior to the elections.
In 2010 Republicans were able to successfully blame Obama for the poor economy and massive budget deficit which was entirely due to mistakes made by the Bush admin.
If the Biden admin can get Covid under control in 2021, the economy at the end of 2022 should be in good shape.
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Democrats also had no strategy to counter it. They did things and then didn't run on them; the joke at the time was that Republicans were running on components of the stimulus bill more than Democrats were. The losses were also not contained to 2010. The economy was showing plenty of signs of gaining in 2014 and they still suffered deep losses that left them with nothing.
It's simple, keep the Dem base energized. Give us what we want and need, help. Healthcare, student loans, college, infrastructure, marijuana, its so damn easy. Stop bowing down to your corporate and wealthy overlords.
I'm gonna keep saying it. Democrats aren't for anything. Republicans have a platform and run on it. Voters don't know what Democrats are for because the Dems are so scared of actually having an opinion. Medicare for All and Green New Deal are slam dunks with the American people if you keep hammering the benefits. They want to play the Republican personality game, and get voted in on feelings. A $15 minimum wage won in Florida alongside Trump, who was against a $15 minimum wage. Biden is now for a $15 minimum wage nationally.
Impeachment #2 was a once in 200 years opportunity following the attempted coup by the president of the United States, and the Dems waited around a few days to see if Mike Fucking Pence would do the right thing. Impeachment should have been on the floor no later than 24 hours after the House was back in session after the coup. Yeah, maybe you lose "moderates", but you embolden the base and improve outreach. Look at Georgia 2021 - the win was in outreach (more Dem voters than Biden 2020), not converting these mythical Republicans to Biden voters while they vote Republican downticket.
Impeachment #2 was a once in 200 years opportunity following the attempted coup by the president of the United States, and the Dems waited around a few days to see if Mike Fucking Pence would do the right thing. Impeachment should have been on the floor no later than 24 hours after the House was back in session after the coup. Yeah, maybe you lose "moderates", but you embolden the base and improve outreach. Look at Georgia 2021 - the win was in outreach (more Dem voters than Biden 2020), not converting these mythical Republicans to Biden voters while they vote Republican downticket.
Obama passed the ACA and other good policy initiatives, but spent no time promoting why these policies matter to rural voters, which allowed the GOP to define them as bad for those voters and it worked.
The accusation would be that Democrats are aloof, which isn't unfair, but the larger issue is that completely writing off red districts for any messaging has carry over penalties that the Democratic party seems to not understand.
This is quite possibly the biggest failing of of the Democratic party apparatuses. The old guard of the Democratic party are so focused on the short term that they have no vision on long term trends.
Fortunately Biden seems to understand this, I assume the loss of rural, but union Dems in Pennsylvania was educational in this regard. Newer members like AOC seem to understand this as well.
This is the biggest argument for an aggressive VRA that includes mandates that a bi-partisan commission complete redistricting in states. This will run into incumbent resistance, but I suspect the House might be primed now to consider this as a way to blunt ultra-political hard R districts.I always point to this:
Republicans controlled all branches of nearly half the US states, and in the states with divided government, they frequently had two of the three IIRC. Some of it has historical precedence, but this was historically a huge loss by the time Obama left.
This is how it is now:
Republicans actually gained full control in Montana and New Hampshire in 2020 after divided government prior to the elections.
Hope they truly learned from their mistakes of being lacks. Even in place that are very hard left like New York, things can happen that could push people in the wrong direction like making small mistakes or just not doing any sort of pushing. Grassroots movements is the best way to get certain divided groups of people to get the right info like in Georgia.
I want to see an actual vision of relief and sustainability for a future of pandemics.
I have been reading all the clippings of Sanders and Biden teaming up for an aggressive plan to push through a budget, but the more aggressive policies like a temporary healthcare system to get people a taste of something like single payer sound tenuous while something that would have passed a GOP senate if a vote was allowed $1400 more is the big headliner.
I also think overhauling the healthcare system could work if there were tangible benefits right away. It took a long time for ACA to pass after prolonged "negotiations" and additional time for any of the benefits to actually reach voters. I think that should be the strategy. You shouldn't throw out the idea of directly addressing the broken healthcare system because you botched the actual policy and rollout last time.
I have been reading all the clippings of Sanders and Biden teaming up for an aggressive plan to push through a budget, but the more aggressive policies like a temporary healthcare system to get people a taste of something like single payer sound tenuous while something that would have passed a GOP senate if a vote was allowed $1400 more is the big headliner.
I also think overhauling the healthcare system could work if there were tangible benefits right away. It took a long time for ACA to pass after prolonged "negotiations" and additional time for any of the benefits to actually reach voters. I think that should be the strategy. You shouldn't throw out the idea of directly addressing the broken healthcare system because you botched the actual policy and rollout last time.
The fact that they are considering this years before the fact, when traditionally dems have sort of fixated a bit too much on the presidential race, is very good to see.
Stacey was also responsible for registering hundreds of thousands of voters in other swing states. As far as knowing what it takes to win across the nation, she's the best the democratic party has.
On a "what are her politics" level, she backed Bloomberg in the primary. So, to be blunt, I'd prefer her in a role like DNC chair to governor of GA as she'd do more good in the former role. But, she's earned her pick of spots.
That's God Queen of the Cosmos Abrams.
Put some respect on her name.
Yeah I don't think Abrams needs to run the party's campaigning infrastructure, she has her own aspirations. Just look at what was successful in Georgia, and copy it where you can. It's pretty clear from what happened there, and what happened in November, knocking on doors is actually tremendously important.
I appreciate the sentiment and the strengthening of state parties, but also, whoever came up with this idea is a dumbass lol
if you're trying to reach out to farm country, your best move is probably to put tom vilsack in a crate and ship him halfway across the ocean
100%. Democrats rely too much on licking their finger and putting it to the wind to decide what and when to do. They are too afraid, and often too ignorant, to take advantage of the fact that good messaging works and you can change public perception to get something done without waiting until 70% of the public has agreed with it for years. Gay marriage was a prime example, the establishment Dems speaking out against doing anything until activists rammed it through the courts and gee wiz all of a sudden the establishment Dems are for it. The Democrats need to grow a fucking spine and start acting instead of reacting, and maybe, just maybe, they'll start crushing it in elections without having to rely on running against absolute monsters.
Obama got blindsided, as he though the momentum they built in 08 and the obstruction by republicans would be enough to carry districts. Biden was there for that and would be a fool to be that naive again.
State Democratic Parties are either immense corrupt machines or ineffective cucks.
I wonder if he will be able to break the former.
I wonder if he will be able to break the former.
