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The Albatross

Member
Oct 25, 2017
39,041
"The ruling is a dog whistle to systemic misogynists who praise zygotes one day..."

Because I can't help but split hairs from articles published on The Hill, uhh, this ruling is not a dog whistle. Sometimes I think people use words and phrases without knowing what they mean. This ruling is a dog whistle in the same way that a bombing Pearl Harbor was a dog whistle, it's not a dog whistle.

But anyway more to the point. Yeah, we'll see, but I doubt it would be enough to really prevent what should be major Republican gains this Fall. I think there's a lot of pent up frustration against Democrats as well, you're definitely seeing more division over this ruling, which is why it's such a win for conservatives.

After 30+ years of dedicating coordination and voter action for conservatives, doggedly going to the polls to vote in every single election on a single issue -- overturning Roe v. Wade -- even when they were making zero progress on that for decades, even when the political will seemed to be going in the opposite direction of their intentions, they got it. 30+ years of single issue voting in every election got them what they needed, a senate that would violate the constitution enough to refuse to sit judicial nominations by Democratic presidents, and then a Republican single term president who would get three justices in four years and dozens or hundreds at lower levels. Conservatives, many of whom weren't Republicans, played the long game with abortion even when they were losing ground, and now it's paid off for them.

I don't really have faith that advocates for the right to have an abortion, or privacy, or health care, or really anything else, will be motivated in the same way as single issue socially conservative voters have been in my life time.

I also don't know if the Kavanaugh hearings were really what swung the 2018 election as much as it was this avalanche of corruption, incompetence, and abuse from a Republican president and Republican congress. They contributed of course, but Democrats were feeling bullish well before the Kavanaugh hearings, and I don't know if those were the singular thing that swung the 2018 midterms in the way it did.
 
Oct 27, 2017
20,764
Id love to be wrong but I'd think conservatives feel empowered and organized. Can't see liberal gains this election but want to be wrong
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,301
get these polls out of here. Let's see where the economy is in September, that is the only indicator worth a damn. We are worried about congressional seats while republicans are just changing America.
 

Nude_Tayne

Member
Jan 8, 2018
3,673
earth
Yeah it was totally Justice PBR who who got Democrats to the polls in 2018 and not the psychotic fascist in the White House. Don't buy it one bit. Hopefully this ruling does something to drive up Dem midterm numbers but for all I know it'll do so even more for Republican voters in some sort of celebratory manner.
 

bruhaha

Banned
Jun 13, 2018
4,122
get these polls out of here. Let's see where the economy is in September, that is the only indicator worth a damn. We are worried about congressional seats while republicans are just changing America.

We should always be worried about congressional seats or however Republicans are taking power. 2014 and 2016 elections directly led to the current Supreme Court. Letting Republicans take power in 2022 can have immediate effects or have effects 5-10 years down the road. You can't just be short-sighted.
 

MonoStable

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,052
Not going to Doom but also a little skeptical, maybe if Gas comes down some by September but I doubt it. I think end if August is when we'll find out if we're "officially" in a recession which is probably going to be hard news to get before an election.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,301
We should always be worried about congressional seats or however Republicans are taking power. 2014 and 2016 elections directly led to the current Supreme Court. Letting Republicans take power in 2022 can have immediate effects or have effects 5-10 years down the road. You can't just be short-sighted.

That's not what I meant. I want democratic leaders to stop using these republican wins to hopefully get more votes in November. Get back off of recess number 21 and do everything in your power to stop this current bleeding in the country. Yes I hope that They hold the house and senate, but republicans are reducing voting rights and everything else to win by cheating. Do something while you have some control (Manchin and Sinema included)
 

bruhaha

Banned
Jun 13, 2018
4,122
That's not what I meant. I want democratic leaders to stop using these republican wins to hopefully get more votes in November. Get back off of recess number 21 and do everything in your power to stop this current bleeding in the country. Yes I hope that They hold the house and senate, but republicans are reducing voting rights and everything else to win by cheating. Do something while you have some control (Manchin and Sinema included)

Can you be specific on what you want them to do with the current seats they hold? They passed the abortion rights bill last year in the house and held a vote on it in May in the senate. It's clear that Manchin and Sinema won't support abolishing the filibuster.

WHPA-Rally-U.S.-Capitol-scaled-aspect-ratio-16-9-scaled.jpg
 

Josh378

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,521
Congratulation republicans, You have made midterms outside of the president election very noticed by the country. I can see us holding the Trifeca. If Republicans was smart, they should have went all in AFTER the election where ppl won't care and they can get the house at least or even hold the senate as well. It's about to get crazy, but I'm at the polls, Democrat down the line.
 

Sal_S

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,476
Hamilton
I think inflation/prices will have stabilized by the time elections roll. On the other hand, the effects of overturning Roe v Wade will be felt much more over the coming months.

Focusing too much on gas prices is a losing position because they could go back down in 5 months, yet that won't change republicans mind on voting straight R. All dems really need to do is put their focus on the right things.
 

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,245
While I do agree, this does energize Dem voters, who have been predicted to be less enthusiastic in recent polling, ie before Roe overturned.

It won't convert Republicans but will get more Democrats out.
There is a subset of (extremely dumb) selfish women who only ever voted Republican for the low taxes and "fiscal conservatism," who never thought Republicans would actually overturn Roe v Wade and are now having a "leopards ate my face" moment. Not sure how sizable they are, but they do exist.
 

Dekim

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,301
There is a subset of (extremely dumb) selfish women who only ever voted Republican for the low taxes and "fiscal conservatism," who never thought Republicans would actually overturn Roe v Wade and are now having a "leopards ate my face" moment. Not sure how sizable they are, but they do exist.
Same for Log Cabin Republicans. In for the tax cuts and deregulation and ignored their party's deep seeded hatred for all things LGBT. Probably think all that anti-LGBT stuff is "all talk" until it becomes quite real. Thomas pretty much put a legal target on their backs in his concurrence. Hope those tax cuts and deregulations were worth it.
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,087
Congratulation republicans, You have made midterms outside of the president election very noticed by the country. I can see us holding the Trifeca. If Republicans was smart, they should have went all in AFTER the election where ppl won't care and they can get the house at least or even hold the senate as well. It's about to get crazy, but I'm at the polls, Democrat down the line.

The GOP themselves don't dictate when SCOTUS releases decisions and they haven't really passed any new laws since the overturning of Roe. The trigger bans were already in place and the abortion laws on the books are the ones they are talking about enforcing most often.
 

Josh378

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,521
The GOP themselves don't dictate when SCOTUS releases decisions and they haven't really passed any new laws since the overturning of Roe. The trigger bans were already in place and the abortion laws on the books are the ones they are talking about enforcing most often.

I would think the GOP would work together keep in contact under table about timelines of when to reverse people basic rights. By triggering right before the mid terms is not only going to rile up democrats, but independents and young people who would sit by the sidelines and not vote.
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,018
It sort of feels like inflation/recession is already "priced in" for the midterms and polling at this point. Assuming it doesn't get dramatically worse, there's an environment where bombshells like this court decision can make a difference, and/or galvanize people who may have otherwise sat out or had not been paying attention.

Those comments from Clarence Thomas should probably be blasted country wide for the rest of the year as well.
 

Replicant

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,380
MN
Don't get your hopes up. The midterms have been a blood bath for the presidential party for the last 2 decades. This year will be extra bad and democrats honestly deserve to get crushed. They have failed as a party and they are doing nothing to change anything going forward. They don't even have a presidential nominee in the wings in case Biden decides not to run.
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,087
I would think the GOP would work together keep in contact under table about timelines of when to reverse people basic rights. By triggering right before the mid terms is not only going to rile up democrats, but independents and young people who would sit by the sidelines and not vote.

Unless they kicked the decision to the next term, it was always going to be before the midterms. They had no reason to delay the decision as the Court feels itself "above" politics. The Court coordinating with the GOP when to release decisions only makes sense if you think the Court thinks of themselves as political operatives. They don't.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,301
Can you be specific on what you want them to do with the current seats they hold? They passed the abortion rights bill last year in the house and held a vote on it in May in the senate. It's clear that Manchin and Sinema won't support abolishing the filibuster.

WHPA-Rally-U.S.-Capitol-scaled-aspect-ratio-16-9-scaled.jpg

Yes that is fine. But like I said, there needs to be more. Stop telling me to vote in November. I am going to vote, my friends are going to vote, people that I don't know will hopefully vote after we go out and try to convince more people to vote. The people that are in office now need to start throwing spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks. The people that won't vote this November are the people that think democrats aren't doing enough. Even if they are, they do a horrible job of letting it be known.
 

Thrill_house

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,623
I hope it fires people up. In my little conservative podunk area most people seem pissed about it and I actually saw a sizeable amount of folks protesting around here over the weekend. This might piss fence sitters off wnough to show up for midterms but we will see.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,526
The thing that gives me hope is the turnout in 2018. It doesn't have to be pushing back against Trump to get people to show up. Democrats need to release a solid roadmap leading up to and after November. We can't just be waiting to vote.
 
May 14, 2021
16,731
Probably won't mean a thing in most parts of the country. Being able to feed yourself and your family trumps all else. As it should. Hopefully the price of gas isnt insanely high much longer.
 

Kasumin

Member
Nov 19, 2017
1,932
What''s the point of unmitigated doomcasting?
Getting your hopes up only to have them dashed over and over is painful. Psychologically, some people just settle into despair. I get it, though I'd rather not go there. But nowadays... it's hard to avoid. Especially when you're in a minority group that has a lot to lose. That's how things are for me, anyway.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,526
What''s the point of unmitigated doomcasting?


It's not constructive, but it's an Era politics mainstay. A lot of threads will be practically unusable as we get closer to the election. For your own health, get acquainted with the "Ignore Thread" feature. The PoliEra thread in the community section tends to be less negative than threads in Etcetera, but YMMV.
 

Grain Silo

Member
Dec 15, 2017
2,512
Probably won't mean a thing in most parts of the country. Being able to feed yourself and your family trumps all else. As it should. Hopefully the price of gas isnt insanely high much longer.

It's definitely a tough dichotomy, in my opinion. Fundamental economic reality versus the glaring and obvious erosion of human rights. I also lean towards the former being more important to voters by and large, but the latter is a huge wake-up call. My worry is this happening with a Dem "majority" causing more voter apathy.
 

bruhaha

Banned
Jun 13, 2018
4,122
Yes that is fine. But like I said, there needs to be more. Stop telling me to vote in November. I am going to vote, my friends are going to vote, people that I don't know will hopefully vote after we go out and try to convince more people to vote.

The messages about the importance of voting aren't directed at people who already vote in every election and are in blue states. They are directed at people in red and purple states where sometimes mere thousands of votes changed America's direction drastically. Being upset at messaging to get people to vote is like being upset at messages promoting vaccination. If you're already vaccinated and live in a highly vaccinated region, why would you be upset at vaccination campaigns that will save lives especially in red states where vaccination rates are lower?


The people that won't vote this November are the people that think democrats aren't doing enough. Even if they are, they do a horrible job of letting it be known.

The bill that passed the house was widely praised by pro-choice groups. The senate vote was reported in the news in the wake of the leak in May. Pelosi just today outlined further things they're looking into after the decision. If you didn't know about the attempts to pass the law and other efforts by Dems, maybe it's up to you to get out of the social bubble that's telling you Dems aren't doing anything and tell everyone you know to do the same. Examine why this publicly available information wasn't reaching you.
 
Last edited:

Parthenios

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
13,613
I bumped into a friend at a park who's a Let's Go Brandon Trump supporter type. He brought up how overturning Roe was bullshit and wanted to know how likely it wad it could be reinstated. I'm hopeful this is a widespread sentiment (I suppose it has to be, since abortion polls higher than Democrats, so there's got to be a sizeable chunk of Republicans that support it) but I don't know that he'd vote for a Democrat. Maybe pro-choice Republicans in the primary though?
 

teruterubozu

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,906
November is a lifetime away in politics. So many potential fumbles are possible along the way from either side. Once the ads start blasting 24/7 then the game is on.
 
Oct 25, 2017
19,105
THIS has been my one semblance of light in this darkness. Republicans got what they wanted, but have lost something to fight for, while Dems/liberals have a newfound ignition to vote. Where Democrats have failed to energize to get us back into the polls this midterm and presidential election, this turn of events will provide plenty of kindling to keep the branches from slipping and hopefully stave Trump off.
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,902
Britain
I bumped into a friend at a park who's a Let's Go Brandon Trump supporter type. He brought up how overturning Roe was bullshit and wanted to know how likely it wad it could be reinstated. I'm hopeful this is a widespread sentiment (I suppose it has to be, since abortion polls higher than Democrats, so there's got to be a sizeable chunk of Republicans that support it) but I don't know that he'd vote for a Democrat. Maybe pro-choice Republicans in the primary though?

He probably thinks Biden overturned Roe. Once he learns otherwise he'll shut up.
 

Tavernade

Tavernade
Moderator
Sep 18, 2018
8,633
I bumped into a friend at a park who's a Let's Go Brandon Trump supporter type. He brought up how overturning Roe was bullshit and wanted to know how likely it wad it could be reinstated. I'm hopeful this is a widespread sentiment (I suppose it has to be, since abortion polls higher than Democrats, so there's got to be a sizeable chunk of Republicans that support it) but I don't know that he'd vote for a Democrat. Maybe pro-choice Republicans in the primary though?

I think abortion rights are popular enough (especially in cases of rape/incest/medical danger) that a large plurality of American are are against a total ban. So it's not surprising that republicans would be mad about it too.

I don't know how much it'd diminish people going out to vote versus flipping them to Dems, though.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,301
The messages about the importance of voting aren't directed at people who already vote in every election and are in blue states. They are directed at people in red and purple states where sometimes mere thousands of votes changed America's direction drastically. Being upset at messaging to get people to vote is like being upset at messages promoting vaccination. If you're already vaccinated and live in a highly vaccinated region, why would you be upset at vaccination campaigns that will save lives especially in red states where vaccination rates are lower?




The bill that passed the house was widely praised by pro-choice groups. The senate vote was reported in the news in the wake of the leak in May. Pelosi just today outlined further things they're looking into after the decision. If you didn't know about the attempts to pass the law and other efforts by Dems, maybe it's up to you to get out of the social bubble that's telling you Dems aren't doing anything and tell everyone you know to do the same. Examine why this publicly available information wasn't reaching you.

Sorry … this is not about a bubble. I am going by actual actions. Republicans have been fighting this war for years while democrats have not realized that they are in the midst of a siege of power. Do you honestly believe that democrats have an equal and opposite reaction to what Republicans are doing? Mitch McConnell has had his way with his Democratic counterparts, even when losing "power".

That's all I'm saying. It's cool that they are passing bills in the house that will die in the senate and standing in front of buildings holding signs, but there needs to be more.

I am not blaming them, I just want them to punch back.
 

bruhaha

Banned
Jun 13, 2018
4,122
Sorry … this is not about a bubble. I am going by actual actions. Republicans have been fighting this war for years while democrats have not realized that they are in the midst of a siege of power. Do you honestly believe that democrats have an equal and opposite reaction to what Republicans are doing? Mitch McConnell has had his way with his Democratic counterparts, even when losing "power".

Can you be specific at what specifically McConnell did that Dems did not respond to? Republicans want to dismantle the federal government so making it look dysfunctional is something that benefits them and doesn't benefit Dems if they do the same.

That's all I'm saying. It's cool that they are passing bills in the house that will die in the senate and standing in front of buildings holding signs, but there needs to be more.

I am not blaming them, I just want them to punch back.

Can you be specific in what you want them to do?
 

·feist·

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,605
Thanks for sharing. Democrats running anti-abortion candidates is even worse imo.

That was nearly 20 years ago, and it seems you may be unwittingly oversimplifying what happened, and why it happened.

As Matt encapsulates in the post below, the landscape has changed a great deal since then:


Democrats run the people who win their primaries.

The party has been massively drained of anti-choice candidates over the last decade. There were 64 anti-choice Democratic House members under Obama. There is one today.

That progress will continue.

Watershed
Further, you might want to dive a bit more into the links I shared in my previous post. The quotes don't paint a full picture. Additionally, here:



2020 -- A Catholic source that is staunchly *against* abortion:
www.ncregister.com

Democrats’ History on Abortion

EDITORIAL: Pro-life Democrats were abundant in the ranks of their party’s leaders not so very long ago, so it’s proper for Catholics of every political stripe to pray that this might be the case again.

EDITORIAL: Pro-life Democrats were abundant in the ranks of their party's leaders not so very long ago, so it's proper for Catholics of every political stripe to pray that this might be the case again.
This year's Democratic National Convention marked a new extreme in terms of the party's pro-abortion allegiances: For the first time, Democrats for Life were prohibited from having even a *token* presence at the event.
The total marginalization of party pro-lifers coincides with the convention's ratification of a party platform replete with pro-abortion planks and with its nomination of Joe Biden, the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in U.S. history, and his running mate, Kamala Harris. Biden and Harris deservedly have been described as the most pro-abortion ticket in the history of U.S. presidential politics — exceeding even the extremism on abortion of the previous two Democratic presidential nominees, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.



History leading to the makeup of the late 1990s-early 2000s. (Note if you add Bush Jr's presidency to this, that makes for 20 years of anti-choice presidents running the US, only interrupted by Clinton's 8 year term):
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The politics of abortion: a historical perspective - PubMed

An analysis of the capture of the Republican party and the national agenda from the late 1970s into the 1990s by a coalition of political and religious conservatives.

Abstract

An analysis of the capture of the Republican party and the national agenda from the late 1970s into the 1990s by a coalition of political and religious conservatives.
PIP: Paradoxically, as Americans became increasingly pro-choice, 2 anti-abortion Presidents were elected to serve for 12 years and pro-life forces captured the domestic agenda by overhauling the traditionally libertarian Republican party. This occurred because Republican analysts saw that the Democratic New Deal coalition was cracking, the traditionally conservative south and west began to control more seats in the House of Representatives, and Americans were becoming more affluent and, thus, more interested in taxes and inflation.



2022:
www.npr.org

A House Democrat's anti-abortion stance could cost him a seat

The only self-identified "pro-life" Democrat in the House is facing a primary runoff challenge in south Texas. The race is one test of whether the party has room for people against abortion rights.

The only self-identified "pro-life" Democrat in the House is facing a primary runoff challenge in south Texas. The race is one test of whether the party has room for people against abortion rights.
There are very few Democratic lawmakers left who oppose abortion rights, and a key Texas primary on Tuesday could oust one more.



Circling back to the Obama era...

2008 -- Gallup polling on voters' views of the importance they placed on a candidate's stance on reproductive rights:
news.gallup.com

Abortion Issue Laying Low in 2008 Campaign

Just 13% of Americans say they will vote only for candidates for major offices who share their views on abortion. In a departure from recent elections, pro-life Americans are not substantially more likely than pro-choice persons to say the issue will be key for them.

Few Americans say candidates' abortion views are critical to their vote
PRINCETON, NJ -- Once the 2008 presidential race shifts from the nomination phase to the general election, the differences between John McCain and the Democrats on abortion will likely come into better focus for most voters. Currently, just 13% of Americans say they will vote only for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, while another 49% say it will be just one of many important factors.
Today, pro-choice and pro-life Americans are fairly similar in their responses to Gallup's voting question. Only when factoring in the percentage saying abortion is one of many important issues they consider do pro-life persons register as more activated to vote on abortion (68% vs. 60%).
Bottom Line

Abortion has been an important element in the Republican campaign playbook going back to Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign. Exit polls and Gallup data since 1984 indicate the issue has attracted more voters to the "pro-life" candidate (i.e., the Republicans) than it pushed away, and it has possibly helped drive up Republican turnout. However, at this point in the 2008 campaign, the issue appears to be of relatively low salience to Americans, and it is giving pro-life candidates only a slight advantage, at best.

080522Abortion1_aye4r98.gif


080522Abortion2_mkd094ka.gif


080522Abortion3_s09kahfde.gif


080522Abortion4_mkf09qjd.gif


080522Abortion5_uw094lnad.gif


080522Abortion6_kdoq50aoh.gif
 

LeGrandBouquetBlanc

Alt Account
Banned
Jun 4, 2022
809
Kav hearings happened way closer to the midterms, not the same thing, way more time for anger to build and for demos to campaign on this and decision is super unpopular right now, will become even more when more states trigger laws and more horror stories come out
 

Gaius Cassius

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,861
Oregon
Kav hearings happened way closer to the midterms, not the same thing, way more time for anger to build and for demos to campaign on this and decision is super unpopular right now, will become even more when more states trigger laws and more horror stories come out

What frustrates me the most is the Supreme Court hearings over the years where several of them straight up said that they wouldn't go after Roe, not just the Supreme Court justice nominees but the senators there. Lied through their fucking teeth. And then you have that idiot Susan Collins 'oh I believe you'. Maybe I have selective memory, I don't know anymore.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,301
Can you be specific at what specifically McConnell did that Dems did not respond to? Republicans want to dismantle the federal government so making it look dysfunctional is something that benefits them and doesn't benefit Dems if they do the same.

Can you be specific in what you want them to do?

McConnell stole a seat from Obama and then added another seat when RBG died in the same fashion. I am not here to argue about the grim reaper.

I am not paid six figures a year to come up with ways for them fight back and show potential voters that they will actually do something. I am paid six figures to work in higher education. When my institution needs ideas or actions, I get together with the rest of my leadership team and figure stuff out… plain and simple.
 

krazen

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,157
Gentrified Brooklyn
I would also argue that in a current post Trump political climate these types of usual political trends aren't going to be as reliable to call. We are too polarized, the world is in an absolutely weird place with a pandemic and war in Europe, and there's been tremendous shifts in how we consume our news.

Not to say the Dems won't get creamed, but its odd we are using historical data for the definition of ahistorical times. We are in weird waters worldwide
 

bruhaha

Banned
Jun 13, 2018
4,122
McConnell stole a seat from Obama and then added another seat when RBG died in the same fashion. I am not here to argue about the grim reaper.

I am not paid six figures a year to come up with ways for them fight back and show potential voters that they will actually do something. I am paid six figures to work in higher education. When my institution needs ideas or actions, I get together with the rest of my leadership team and figure stuff out… plain and simple.

If you can't think of anything they should do, what makes you think Dems haven't thought about things? What McConnell has been doing since 2014 has been shitty but they are variations of things done in the past, taken to a further extreme. He is not a wizard. Filibustering nominees and playing tricks with the senate calendar have been done before. Democrat Harry Reid eliminated the filibuster for circuit court nominees and Mitch took it to the SCOTUS level.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,915
Not to be a doomer, but this is just blatantly false. 2018 generic ballot polls were extremely consistent in showing a strong year for Dems.

Screenshot_20220626-191013.png


Here are this year's generic ballot polls in contrast.

Screenshot_20220626-191047.png


There was no shift when the Roe ruling leaked two months ago.
Interesting that 2022 is super close. 2018 was always a clear Dem victory but some reason the polling this year has it as a close race and the Republicans aren't even polling close to 50%. Is there a 2010 version?

COPIUM?
 

MayorSquirtle

Member
May 17, 2018
7,967
Interesting that 2022 is super close. 2018 was always a clear Dem victory but some reason the polling this year has it as a close race and the Republicans aren't even polling close to 50%. Is there a 2010 version?

COPIUM?
Keep in mind gerrymandering means Dems have to come out a few points ahead in the popular vote to even tie the number of seats in the House (I think the general consensus was they needed like +4 to safely control the House in 2018, will likely be different this year because of the new wave of redistricting but idk by how much).
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,889
Unfortunately, the average voter probably cares a lot more about the economy and inflation than Roe v Wade. There might be a cushion and it won't be as bad as it was initially going to be, but I expect midterms to be brutal.

Rod vs. Wade is also a signal that they're coming for more people's rights.
They've out right said it.
That should motivate people.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,927
Unfortunately, the average voter probably cares a lot more about the economy and inflation than Roe v Wade. There might be a cushion and it won't be as bad as it was initially going to be, but I expect midterms to be brutal.
The average voter probably cares a lot more about abortion access than whether a SC justice hurt somebody.

Trump also had a strong economy and stock market at the time of the 2018 midterms.
 

echoshifting

very salt heavy
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
14,734
The Negative Zone
I would also argue that in a current post Trump political climate these types of usual political trends aren't going to be as reliable to call. We are too polarized, the world is in an absolutely weird place with a pandemic and war in Europe, and there's been tremendous shifts in how we consume our news.

Not to say the Dems won't get creamed, but its odd we are using historical data for the definition of ahistorical times. We are in weird waters worldwide

Yeah. I think this is shaping up to be a historically bad year for punditry and predictions
 

Dekim

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,301
Rod vs. Wade is also a signal that they're coming for more people's rights.
They've out right said it.
That should motivate people.
This is the one "upside" of conservatives going hog wild. Moderate and swing voters can no longer ignore GOP extremism now that it's "real" in their eyes. Before, they could dismiss warnings of GOP extremism as partisan bickering. Now, it is real and in their faces, and it can't be dismissed so easily like before.
 

Geode

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,460
This is the one "upside" of conservatives going hog wild. Moderate and swing voters can no longer ignore GOP extremism now that it's "real" in their eyes. Before, they could dismiss warnings of GOP extremism as partisan bickering. Now, it is real and in their faces, and it can't be dismissed so easily like before.

I hope so. Hopefully this wakes some people up.