-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
I think we should not expect the PS5 to dominate the market like the PS4 did
- Thread starter Deleted member 58846
- Start date
There seems to be this interesting false dichotomy that consumers buy either PS4 or next Xbox. In reality, however, they may end up bying both or neither. Each console will sell on their own merits. Nobody absolutely needs a video games system, and many can afford every console, if people find them worth their price.
That being said, Sony has a decent track record. They have brought four consoles to the market, and all four are in the all time top-5 of best sellers. Soon (if not alredy) they will hold the top three positions.
If Sony keep doing what they have done the past five or so years, they'll end up -- once again -- in the over 100M category, regardless of competition.
And if Microsoft releases a product that surpasses everything they have accomplished so far, they may reach 90M. Sony's success has little to do with that.
Nintendo... well, they're Nintendo. Who the hell knows, where they are in another two years. But they won't eat into Sony's or Microsoft's sales.
They all need to stand on their own feet.
That being said, Sony has a decent track record. They have brought four consoles to the market, and all four are in the all time top-5 of best sellers. Soon (if not alredy) they will hold the top three positions.
If Sony keep doing what they have done the past five or so years, they'll end up -- once again -- in the over 100M category, regardless of competition.
And if Microsoft releases a product that surpasses everything they have accomplished so far, they may reach 90M. Sony's success has little to do with that.
Nintendo... well, they're Nintendo. Who the hell knows, where they are in another two years. But they won't eat into Sony's or Microsoft's sales.
They all need to stand on their own feet.
Very much agreed. This was the wrong generation to lose.
This has always been a bit of a head scratcher for me so I'll ask outright... Why doesn't XBOX own the subscription market, now?
A Nintendo Handheld would have sold less than the 3DS, the market is shrinking and real developers have been moving to mobile, it's entirely the hybrid nature of the Switch that allows it to sell like it is, it can surpass the 3DS next FY too, so it really shows how important it not just being a portable was to the market.
I'm not an Xbox fan and estimating a 10 to 20 Million advantage for PS4 is hardly a hot take.
Microsoft started the generation off with a console that cost $100 more than Sony, and Sony joined the console market by taking $100 cheaper console than Sega, so it's hardly fantasy here.
businesses need to spend money and try to expand their markets, if you think Microsoft is happy with their position in the console market and not willing to spend money, then what is all these studio acquisitions with blank checks for their next games about?
Yeah that's not what you said...
You said that Ms was a worth 1,200 Billion so the next Xbox could be sold at $100 less than Sony can afford.
And that is 100% fantasy.
What Fanboy nonsense.
They still sold over 10 million in Europe.
Well... PS4 is not dominating this generation too. at least, not after Switch was released, for 3 years now there have been very strong competition between them.
There could just be an overall contraction. Like how the Switch is selling a ridiculous number of units but its nowhere close to the heyday of the Wii + DS days. Both MS and Sony could just sell less units this time around.
You're correct - a Nintendo handheld constructed with the outdated design philosophy of putting out tiny-screened, clam shelled relatively pedestrian powered devices with subpar fit-and-finish would have done worse. Luckily Nintendo rectified those things by designing the Switch with more contemporary cues that fit much much better with the demographical attitude shift expectation consumers have for their mobile devices than the 3DS ever did.
The consolidation was a retooling of an already effective and - despite the 3DS's flaws- highly successful strategy, not an abandonment. Them downsizing on hardware revenue streams from 2 to 1 is significantly more an indictment of the Wii U and Nintendo's extinguishing home console mindshare pre-hybrid, of which thkse ventures only achieved a 50% success rate and 2 of which catalyzed company wide changes in approach (GCN and Wii U).
There is no scenario Nintendo is where they are RIGHT now if they don't tap into that massive handheld brand they've cultivated since Game & Watch.
On lock? You do know Wii, DS, Switch were/is a thing, right? And Japan hasn't been interesting since Monster Hunter released on PSP.
As a reminder, you are talking strictly home consoles, something which got slightly more absurd with a hybrid/handheld family of console systems.
Last edited:
So next generation XBOX will move more units and grow GP on the back of that?
What part is fantasy? MS's value? The strategy of undercutting your competitor by $100? That Sony can't afford the same discounts in their consoles as Microsoft can?
It is their video game brand they are tapping into, their IPs and even their console games that are huge on the switch, just look at the lite's sales or Mario party's sales, over 7 Million for a console game that can't even be played on the lite or in portable mode.
If portables are thriving, then what happened with Vita?
I already explained the Vita. It was a redundant product trying to attract premium oriented consumers already satiated by far more intrinsically valuable and multifunctional devices with enough power to render the differences negligible.
If tapping into IP was all it took, then you have to explain why despite Nintendo home consoles having the clear quality/scope advantage over their handheld counterparts in terms of those IP appearances why they have never ever sold at a clip - save for the Wii and ironically the Switch - at a mass market rate similar to Nintendo handhelds. Or why their handhelds (including the G&w) are 5/6 in terms of success rate with "lesser" variants of those franchises in their libraries while the home consoles went a whopping 3/6 in that same time frame.
What you're saying, and the reality of Nintendo as a company especially in how they employ business, do not align.
Edit: I dont want my narrative to get lost in this tangential back-and-forth, so I'll reiterate: I feel almost assuredly Switch, and Nintendo's subsequent successors to this platform, will not detract from Sony's potential to dominate because the usage case and content expectancy are not at all analogous. Nintendo stands for convenience, and Sony immersive TV-gaming experience. It is more likely than not they will both achieve a high mark of sales without eating into one another, similar to how the OGGB sold a ton despite the PS1 craze.
Last edited:
The part that Ms can cut the price of that much lower than Sony. If hypothetically Sony decide let's say to sell PS5 for 400€ taking a loss of 100€ you think the next Xbox is gonna be 300€? Because that what you were implying, that Ms could always go 100€ less than them because they are so rich.
Taken care of. Misquoting is against TOS as is harassment.
Last edited:
I agree there is not a great deal of data about Latin America but now and again you come across stories like this one on GamingBolt from 2015...
Xbox One Outsells PS4 in South America in 2014
The difference is ridiculous.
"Traditionally, North America and the UK have been viewed as Xbox strongholds- territories where Xbox consoles always do very well, well enough to counter the Xbox brand's weakness in other regions. However, it seems like Xbox has got a massive advantage in one other territory, and it is a big one, one that can certainly be the deciding factor in later years, if not right now- ZhugeEx notes that the Xbox One has a massive advantage in Latin America over the PS4, which is going to be important in the coming years, because Latin America is the second fastest growing market for gaming in the world.
"Latin America is now the second fastest growing gaming region in the world just behind Asia Pacific but ahead of North America and Western Europe," the report reads. "This year we expect revenue generated by home console software sales to exceed $1.2 billion and account for around 30% of total revenue generated by video games software in the region. Console hardware revenues are expected to exceed $3 billion this year across Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo.
"Looking back to 2014 we can see that Latin America was the third largest market for console hardware revenues with total sales amounting to $2.8 billion, just behind North America and Western Europe who saw revenues of $5.1 billion and $4.7 billion respectively. In Latin America the Xbox One was the best selling next generation console in 2014 through official sales channels."
The graph, which you can see above, shows us just how massive this difference really is- the PS4 has an advantage over the Xbox One in Argentina (where the Xbox One seems to be non existent), but in Brazil and especially Mexico, it's a bloodbath, with green dominating blue entirely. Sony and Nintendo's absurd pricing versus Microsoft's far more reasonable pricing for this region seems to be having tangible effects.
Of course, one important thing to remember to remember is that this refers only to official sales channels- imports and grey market sales (both constituting a fairly big chunk of the gaming market) are not accounted for here. Still, it seems that Microsoft now has another territory that it can inculcate and make a stronghold- which might explain the enthusiasm that Xbox and Phil Spencer showed off at the Xbox one Brazil Fanfest, ahead of the Brazil Game Show. You can check out some of the photos from the fanfest below."
I agree there is not a great deal of data about Latin America but now and again you come across stories like this one on GamingBolt from 2015...
Xbox One Outsells PS4 in South America in 2014
The difference is ridiculous.
"Traditionally, North America and the UK have been viewed as Xbox strongholds- territories where Xbox consoles always do very well, well enough to counter the Xbox brand's weakness in other regions. However, it seems like Xbox has got a massive advantage in one other territory, and it is a big one, one that can certainly be the deciding factor in later years, if not right now- ZhugeEx notes that the Xbox One has a massive advantage in Latin America over the PS4, which is going to be important in the coming years, because Latin America is the second fastest growing market for gaming in the world.
"Latin America is now the second fastest growing gaming region in the world just behind Asia Pacific but ahead of North America and Western Europe," the report reads. "This year we expect revenue generated by home console software sales to exceed $1.2 billion and account for around 30% of total revenue generated by video games software in the region. Console hardware revenues are expected to exceed $3 billion this year across Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo.
"Looking back to 2014 we can see that Latin America was the third largest market for console hardware revenues with total sales amounting to $2.8 billion, just behind North America and Western Europe who saw revenues of $5.1 billion and $4.7 billion respectively. In Latin America the Xbox One was the best selling next generation console in 2014 through official sales channels."
The graph, which you can see above, shows us just how massive this difference really is- the PS4 has an advantage over the Xbox One in Argentina (where the Xbox One seems to be non existent), but in Brazil and especially Mexico, it's a bloodbath, with green dominating blue entirely. Sony and Nintendo's absurd pricing versus Microsoft's far more reasonable pricing for this region seems to be having tangible effects.
Of course, one important thing to remember to remember is that this refers only to official sales channels- imports and grey market sales (both constituting a fairly big chunk of the gaming market) are not accounted for here. Still, it seems that Microsoft now has another territory that it can inculcate and make a stronghold- which might explain the enthusiasm that Xbox and Phil Spencer showed off at the Xbox one Brazil Fanfest, ahead of the Brazil Game Show. You can check out some of the photos from the fanfest below."
All the data i just show you is after 2014 if you look at the links.
Plus we not talking revenue but sale numbers .
2014 is over 5 years ago .
This from 2016.
From the 2017 link
- 70% of Brazilian gamers play console games.
- The PlayStation has become the most dominant console.
- Piracy and illegal console sales are not as significant a problem as in the past. Previously, legal gaming consoles were too expensive for average Brazilians to purchase.
- However, locally manufactured consoles led to a price reduction - thereby increasing legal gaming consoles.
- In addition, taxes contributing to higher game prices have also been reduced, leading to an increase in legal video game sales.
If you follow the Brazil market you would also know Sony was able to get there price down thanks to making the console locally .
Which happen after 2014 .
Last edited:
I agree there is not a great deal of data about Latin America but now and again you come across stories like this one on GamingBolt from 2015...
Xbox One Outsells PS4 in South America in 2014
The difference is ridiculous.
Mexico is not South America last I checked.
Yeah, that was really odd to read....
The smaller portable with less features didn't sell as well as the bigger portable with more features that doubles as a home console...
Therefore portables are dead.
?
Obviously for Nintendo they aren't dead.
Doesn't really answer my question though. The tech industry moves fast, and a mere "few years" ago might as well have been another lifetime, especially given Microsoft's trajectory in the past five years. That's like saying that PS3 has no games in 2012, and meaningfully arguing that Sony needs to start releasing games if they want to compete. Like, is Microsoft still talking about TV and pushing cable box functionality? Are they talking up partnerships with U.S. sports leagues?
Thank God you put the qualifier of the last 3 years. You can make cases about launched aligned and monthly, yearly basis. But it's in an end of gen decline right now.
And last year it defied expectations by outselling the Switch for the year. Many didn't expect that to happen.
It very much so dominated this generation. MS and Nintendo had to reset the clock to even keep up. I wonder what would have happened if the PS4 would have also sold poorly this gen. Do the other 2 still do what they did?
I refuse to believe that was real. Can't be.
Last edited:
Their consoles were always plagued with droughts that killed momentum.
All I've said about Nintendo Switch's successor is that it will likely keep the platform and that it will be closer to next gen consoles than the current Switch is to this gen, because of 4K. The base PS4 plays 1080p games, this is a big reason why the gap is so high, but if the PS4 were stretched to 1440p (2k), it would be much closer.
Maybe I'm missing something else from you here, but Nintendo Switch is selling better because it's a hybrid, not because it's a handheld. If that was the case, the Switch lite would simply outsell the switch but we are seeing the hybrid model as the vastly better seller.
I don't think Sony is going to sell the PS5 at $299, but if they do, Microsoft could sell a much more powerful Xbox at the same price. What I'm saying is that if Sony invests money into a loss leader console, Microsoft can invest more in the same strategy. That isn't up for debate, it's like arguing that 1200 and 80 are the same numbers.
I'll never underestimate Sony's capacity to fumble in the end zone. They're making a lot of insular and backwards decisions right now.
They fumbled with PS3. That was it.
And what are these "insular and backwards decisions"?
I think it does answer your question though. MS might be making the right moves now, but they aren't going to erase the sentiment they've curated for over a decade by the start of next gen.
In the long run, they can build interest in other markets, but it's not something I'd expect to flip in time for next gen.
Thinking that their library is somehow "above" being considered for access via PS Now, for one.
That is enough to mess up the gen for them? This is very minor in the grand scheme of things.
PS Now is more relevant to their strategy now, and we've seen them make it better over this year. So, I don't even think this is something that can't change going forward anyway.
I meant pertaining to the console market. That is the context of the thread.
Of course is not up for debate lol you live in a magical world where you think Ms can do anything, too bad this generation disproves everything you just said.
Poor Sony they should pack their bags already... I don't know how they lasted 25 years lol
Last edited:
That's an odd way to phrase it. They don't think they are "above" PSNow they just know that they mostly all sell well so they don't want to put them in the subscription.
Yes. I don't really see them doing better worldwide. Especially in Asia. They need to launch like every region matters and have stronger campaigns.
You have to be kidding me, it took the Switch to this year to finally outsell the PS4 which is at its end of its life at this point.
Last edited:
I'm confused by the idea that people buy consoles for a game subscription service like Gamepass. Xbox needs a more visionary pitch than that if they're going to overcome Playstation's momentum going into next-gen. The recent developer acquisitions are very positive, but Sony is already strong on exclusive publishing.
they have a large amount of subscribers already and it's steadily growing.
Pretty much this. It's quite recent that they have begun actively targeting the pc players.
It's worth noting that PS Now numbers are growing as well and at least there we know those are customers willing to pay full price. All of Game Pass's discounts make it harder to separate the dedicated crowd who might stay with the service from the impulse buy crowd who just wanted to spend a couple of bucks to play a game or check it out.
And I know that might not necessarily be the point as more points of engagement are what's important for a growing sub model, but I felt it was worth noting that it might not neccarily be a full apples to apples comparison between the 2 services right now. Both services will grow but we'll have to wait and see how they evolve for next gen and how effective they are in retaining subscribers.
Personally I think Sony should and will be eventually offering a Now/Plus hybrid tier not unlike GPU and will be making efforts to convert their 38 million or so PS+ subscribers to that higher model. That'll be the starting point for further expanding their sub base imo. I don't think these efforts will really kick off until the move to Azure is complete and possibly the PS5 hardware is ready to be put into datacenters. Right now I feel they're in a bit of a holding pattern with Now as they wait for certain things like Azure and PS5 to be ready. In the meantime they're still refining the service to improve its performance.
You need developers to provide games for the services just like Netflix need own produced series and movies to compete that is why I believe they are spending money. If you play those games on a Xbox, PC, phone or in the future PS, Nintendo or any other device I don't think they care about as long as you subscribe to their service.
