Let's hope the Murdoch's catch the coronavirus ... 🤞🏼
Him too.
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Let's hope the Murdoch's catch the coronavirus ... 🤞🏼
Him too.
I still think there's less chance of them closing schools down. They've drawn that line very firmly in the sand.
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If we try to throw up some quick hospitals the cladding will ignite before the first patient sees them.
Deaths racking up, the NHS getting overworked by too many cases.
Same thing that happened in italy.
It sounds like a "heroic choice" by Boris, the sort of thing that turns your average, run of the mill Prime Minister into the stuff of legend, another Churchill.
Assuming it works. If it doesn't, it'll just be a lot of dead people that might have survived if the UK had just done what has worked in China and others.
Assuming it works. If it doesn't, it'll just be a lot of dead people that might have survived if the UK had just done what has worked in China and others.
this is literally what I said they should do
People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months, under a "wartime-style" mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days.
It is part of a series of measures being prepared by the prime minister, health secretary, chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser to prevent the health service from "falling over" and to save lives as Covid-19 becomes an epidemic in the UK.
Other measures already being planned include:
- the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
- the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
- temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
- emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
- the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.
- They are deeply worried that some older people will simply die at home from neglect, after they are quarantined, so want to start the quarantine as late as possible - some time within the next five to 20 days.
The prime minister Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock are counting on neighbours and friends to rally round to make sure no one is neglected. "We are looking for a huge community effort," said a source.
The prime minister's adviser, Dominic Cummings, has also initiated conversations with Uber and Deliveroo about taking food to the old and vulnerable when they are put into forced isolation
- "Everything is aimed at making sure the NHS is not overwhelmed, to save lives and to prevent hideous choices having to be made," said a source.
Plans are also well under way for doctors to give consultations to patients quarantined at home by video links over the internet.
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I think that the idea is that the virus will only truly slow down when 60-70% of the people are immune. Due to the fact that 1 sick person will spread the sickness to around 2.3 others. Using a calculation model with the basic reproduction number that says 1-(1/2.3)=0.57, in other words that more than 57% needs to be unsusceptible to infection to prevent sustained spread.
Though if everybody gets sick at once the hospitals can't treat everyone's at risk, so I'm not saying that it's the best method.
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Care homes. English care homes, with the regulations lifted and standards lowered, as they have been discussing.
There are plenty of places we can set up new care homes. It's not like we use phone boxes for anything else these days.
It was obviously what they intended of you actually gave it any consideration other than the government wants to kill all the old people.
And the fact that the Tories are doing it should tell you everything you need to know about how abhorrent it is.
It won't do fucking anything except lock all the elderly up who will then be stuck alone dying of an illness that they still catch because they get it from their care workers.
Lockdowns only really work when everyone is doing there part of it, not just the elderly and vunerable, because you still need to stop the people they have to interact with from getting the disease en mass too, whether that is family or care workers. Simply put, without a vaccine, this strategy will never work without a huge and likely otherwise avoidable human death toll.
People love to take quotes in isolation but you should watch the whole press conference if you have not already.
This is where the most relevant part to our discussion begins:
Their plan is to try and have controlled stages of infection/spread.
- Phase 1 is to keep children in school, have people continue working as normal, allow younger people to convene at sporting/musical events, and only self-isolate if they show symptoms. This is spreading the infection among the "low-risk" group.
- Phase 2 in the next few weeks, presumably once the rate of infection gets over a certain level, is to isolate entire households if anyone shows symptoms. In theory that should mean everyone in the household gets it, but are not out spreading the infection to more people and may be better able to help themselves than heading to the nearest hospital.
I'm not saying that I agree with it - I pointed out several things that seem flawed with this approach in the post you replied to.
Their line of thinking seems to be that isolating the at-risk groups of people right now when chance of infection is low means they will get fed up of it and head out by the time things are at their worst - almost guaranteeing infection.
I don't necessarily agree with it. I think people will be able to handle being cooped up at home for a few extra weeks rather than considering the risk to be acceptable right now.
At least that's my understanding of the approach.
Again: I am not saying that I agree with their plan. But it's a bit more than "let everyone get it and let's move on".
If you believe that the best approach is to have the population develop an immunity (as they do), this is probably the most controlled way that you could do it, outside of a total lockdown.
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Sarcasm. I am smart! Also all the phone boxes are cashpoints now.
I was being flippant in a gallows humour kinda way. Sorry I fucked it up. I know the care system is a disaster.
edit: it's fine. It can be hard to tell the difference when people are being genuine shitheels all over the place.
My grandad lives in a residential care home I just wonder how exactly people who need daily help are suppose to self-isolate.
you would have restricted access, visitors would be restricted to only authorized healthcare workers who we hope are taking proper precautions. Also residents would be restricted from each other if showing signs of infection. A lot of nursing home plagues are from dirty little children or family members with highly infectious diseases visiting the sanitized care homes. Source: Father is a nursing home director and in geriatrics for 25 years.
They would need specifics but I imagine they would want that limited as much as possible to authorized care workers.
What if people live with elderly relatives? Are they just going to be all locked up for four months?
What I'm wondering, my sister lives with my Nan and Grandad, both are over 70, she can't just move out and has work, so can't be isolated for 4 months. My grandparents can't just move to a carehome either.
The country has turned into a black comedy.
People saying "the war" is something we are familiar with.
again, vaccines and herd immunity work on the exact same basic biological principles:
vaccines contain a portion of the virus and is designed to create an autoimmune response to that virus. Saying that contracting the virus you would develop no immunity would literally be the same as saying the vaccine provides no immunity as it's based on the same premises of your body developing a natural autoimmune response.
Yeah, something similar for me as well. If this is actual policy it seems incredibly half baked and implausible. So about right for this government
that's correct, but also a great example of why circumstances like this are easier to manage in a case by case basis. This will not be the same for everyone and will be a smaller target you need to find unique accommodations for.
My gran is 90 and lives alone, doesn't have any carers other than her family. Should we just leave her to die alone or what?
Keeping children in school and having parents go to work means the elderly will get it too. Everyone who needs anything from anyone else will get it.
The NHS isn't ready for a fast spread. Nowhere near ready. Not in the slightest, and that's what they've allowed to happen with a complete lack of control, weeks after the infection has been spreading.
The only humane solution now is as tight of a lockdown as possible, as fast as possible. The real numbers are probably in the 10s of thousands by now if not 100s.
Add to the care in a manageable way after the lockdown. Then, slowly releasing parts of the population where care is available.
That takes too long. It's too much work and it costs too much. They aren't even competent enough for that.
They'd rather have a cheap but cruel shit show. Only now are they giving advice for the elderly to isolate. After getting an onslaught of backlash from scientists who didn't buy their herd immunity bullshit as a strategy and saw it as the parrotable distraction catchphrase that it was. Tories were forced to see the weakness in the defense of their strategy - no protection for the vulnerable.
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The press in this country continue to surpass themselves.
Moving swiftly from defence of the government policy, to defence of the U-turn in 24 hours.
Even supposed satire outlets like 'Have I Got News For You' putting out stuff like 'Barry from Wigan disagrees with the government approach, what an idiot'.
The entire journalist and media class seems to exist only to hold the public to account. They support and placate the rulers.
Moving swiftly from defence of the government policy, to defence of the U-turn in 24 hours.
Even supposed satire outlets like 'Have I Got News For You' putting out stuff like 'Barry from Wigan disagrees with the government approach, what an idiot'.
The entire journalist and media class seems to exist only to hold the public to account. They support and placate the rulers.
did you not read the list of bullet points I posted from the article of how they will attend to locked down elderly. This is about preventing deaths.
Again, from the article you posted yourself, and from "someone much smarter" as you said:
Basically, word for word exactly what I've been saying for all my posts in this thread. Just took 10 minutes of skimming pubmed for papers on herd immunity to see it was a useful by-product of vaccination. Not remotely a sound strategy for infection control. Their goal was infection spread. And now they're backtracking a little. But not enough.
We're not smarter than Europe and every other country. We're just gullible and trust the man on TV with a suit and tie giving us a buzzword to repeat.
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British media is awful, even the passable bits. The Guardian's US branch wrote an open letter to the British lot asking them why they were being such transphobic dicks, and the wider British media landscape is basically "what if fox news... was all of it."
No, it's not as bad as fox, but there's no significant alternative media like there is in the us, just a mass of hate that occasionally squabbles about precisely how disabled you have to be to not be called a scrounger.
Uk media is a joke no wonder the population is full of idiots when the news they get is so crap
Correct, this isn't about preventing illness, this is about preventing Deaths!!
We don't have a vaccine and can't reliable determine when we will get one. We can't perpetually lockdown the entire population until a vaccine is found. Our systems will collapse and mass hysteria will set in if we attempted something like that.
There's no vaccine for the common cold ( three corona virus variants), the first SARS outbreak was in 2002 and there has been no vaccine developed same with MERS which showed up around 2012.
These particular types of virus don't produce long lasting immunity profiles stored in the humoural immune system.
From some of the papers on SARS and MERS these viruses also cause a heavy handed immune response, causing damage to the lungs.
Making more people ill now means more will die as our NHS can't cope. It's that simple!
The alternative isn't to lock everyone away only to then suddenly release them at the same time, like they've been claiming. It's to do a slow release. NOT a slow lockdown!
But that costs money.
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Just a bit of stiff upper lip and elbow grease is all you need! Keep calm and carry on, etc.
I'm just glad my employer seems to have its shit together with this thing. TT/WarnerBros/WarnerMedia/AT&T is advising we all work from home come Monday, letting us take home our work PCs and everything. Deep cleaning the studios, etc etc. Taking no chances.
Meanwhile my mum's working as a nurse on the frontlines and has seen two people die from COVID in just the last couple days alone, and it sounds like the NHS is barely providing them with any sort of protective gear. She's having to self-isolate because she's had direct exposure to it. The whole thing's fucked.
I'm just glad my employer seems to have its shit together with this thing. TT/WarnerBros/WarnerMedia/AT&T is advising we all work from home come Monday, letting us take home our work PCs and everything. Deep cleaning the studios, etc etc. Taking no chances.
Meanwhile my mum's working as a nurse on the frontlines and has seen two people die from COVID in just the last couple days alone, and it sounds like the NHS is barely providing them with any sort of protective gear. She's having to self-isolate because she's had direct exposure to it. The whole thing's fucked.
This is not a sickness that you shrug off after 3 days. You will be down for 2 to 8 weeks dependent on how "mild" your symptoms are. (pneumonia without needing a respirator) is a mild symptom!
Germany is at 4500 positive cases and only 46 recoveries after 17 days, that includes the 20 or so recoveries from the first little outbreak in February.
So just 26 recoveries after 17 days. And Germany must do something right with only 9 deaths.
Germany is at 4500 positive cases and only 46 recoveries after 17 days, that includes the 20 or so recoveries from the first little outbreak in February.
So just 26 recoveries after 17 days. And Germany must do something right with only 9 deaths.
Where is this science? I havent heard this being used for Ebola or Sars or Measles or anything, where is the evidence that it's a good strategy. Killing a few people(a lot) so the rest maybe are alright, a few of them have permanent debilitating problems but its fine. We have to have a few mass graves, and our Hospitals have collapsed, we have masses of people grieving, and who knows what other problems, we could be the epicentre of reinfection for the entire world, but it's fine the best strategy. I hope they goverment are first in line to test this, and expose themselves on purpose, hope they don't die or end up with permanent lung damage or other problems.
My argument was the idea that we needed a vaccine which may or may not come soon if at all. It's also why extending the spread over 1-2 years in a population makes it worse if we can't guarantee long term immunity.
we know WHO concentrated on containment and eradication of SARS, however we are seeing containment and eradication does not seem like a plausible long term strategy with this strain. Even if immunity only lasts 4 months it will significantly help if has already run much of its course through the population such that it not longer can spread.
No one said we have to have a vaccine. We're saying herd immunity is useful when we are using vaccines.
We just need to have emergency support available. And for that we need time. Not rapid infection spread.
Let go of the faith in the Tory party policies. You can't trust them as far as you can kick them.
I really hope there are serious repurcussions for those responsible for a delayed lockdown.
We just need to have emergency support available. And for that we need time. Not rapid infection spread.
Let go of the faith in the Tory party policies. You can't trust them as far as you can kick them.
I really hope there are serious repurcussions for those responsible for a delayed lockdown.
you absolutely would not use this strategy for any of those because they are not anywhere near as contagious and those were several times more deadly. Again the strategy is only good in specific ways and not for everything.