How would America react, If China invaded Taiwan during America's election and power transition period ?

[Keasar]

Trump would shrug and say that Xi Jinping would never do that, Jinping is a great friend of his and would have told him if he did that, it's for Taiwans very best, making Taiwan great again with the help of Chinese businesses and leadership, much respect, excellent leadership and strong military. Very strong.

 

[Akira86]

If Trump wins, he'll start a nuclear war with North Korea.
(seeing as he already threatened to, and they just released their new ICBM which can touch all of North America. And they're working on sub launched nukes that can get even closer.)

If Biden wins, China becomes part of the delicate balance America wants to create and caution is once again on the menu.
Right now with Trump, everything is a free for all.

 

[gdt]

Wow, I'm shocked at the responses here. A bunch of low effort thinking here.

The US would be forced to respond, but that doesn't necessarily mean a declaration of war on China.

Realistically, American forces move in to support Taiwan. I think some sort of blockade to start with.

It wouldn't be an easy invasion btw. Taiwan has been preparing forever, with the US's help.

 

[16bits]

China has nuclear weapons, so all out war against them is out of the question. Its suck but it's the reality.

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i don't think a lack of all our war sucks!

 

[vhoanox]

i don't think a lack of all our war sucks!

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I think you misunderstand me. Because of nuclear weapons, a war with China is gonna destroy us all.
So they gonna bully Taiwan their neighbors for a long time and nobody will stop them. I'm Vietnamese so I know.

 

[Candescence]

The US wouldn't do nothing. There would be some kind of tangible response. Nothing as far as a counter-invasion by any stretch, but the US military would likely move in to at least make China's attempted invasion an even bigger nightmare than it already would be. Any invasion would be way more difficult than most people think, if it was possible for the CCP to easily sweep up Taiwan, they would've done it decades ago.

Ideally, though, the US would just straight up come to Taiwan's defense. The GOP's existing policies indicate that they actually support the defense of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, and the Democrats likely do, too. The US is no longer obligated by treaty to defend Taiwan, but there is a heavy leaning towards action to do so.

 

[Razgriz-Specter]

The US would act tough until they did it, then talk tough afterwards.
Maybe more sanctions and tariffs at most.

Sadly it just isn't at a level someone would willingly initiate WW3 over.
that would literally need to be China invading Japan or Russia invading Germany level for the US to actually get involved.

 

[Jibbajabbawockky]

If its Trump in office, I think the reaction would be more severe than Biden. Would likely depend on how China went about it though too. If take a gradual approach like they did with HK, I can see more nations overlooking it and wagging their finger but not doing anything. If its more aggressive like Crimea/Ukraine I can see it maybe becoming more of a flashpoint.

The one other big thing people maybe aren't taking into account is how Trump right now is hitting China's semiconductor industry. And what nation has the largest semiconductor fab in the world? Taiwan and TSM. The economic angle of China taking over Taiwan and TSM would be enormous for the entire world and I wonder if countries might counter any Chinese aggresstion towards Taiwan for those reasons if nothing else.

 

[Bad Advice]

welp

 

[GYODX]

Any attack on Taiwan would have a massively destabilizing effect on both a regional and global scale. And while Taiwan may not have oil, they fill a very important role in the global economy with their technology sector.

I think we would--and should--respond in a meaningful way.

Either way, I doubt an invasion of Taiwan is in China's best interests. They can afford to play the long, LONG game and eventually achieve peaceful reunification.

 

[Deleted member 21431]

Is the US didn't do anything substantial in this scenario, then China (and Russia) will know they can invade whomever they wish without comeback.

The threat of American military might is what keeps both China and Russia in check. Both know they can only go so far before America would act, but if China can conquer a country under American protection then all bets are off.

In this scenario you'd fast track what has already been happening since Trump ; the US would lose all respect and leadership. You'd see old allies such as Japan and South Korea flip to supporting China to avoid being conquered. The EU would know what they already suspect that the US cannot be relied upon. NATO would be finished as an alliance and Europe would be open to attack by Russia. The middle east countries would flip to seeking Russian protection.

You'd basically return to 1938 when Hitler annexed Austria and part of Czechoslovakia with little comeback. We know how that turned out - war in Europe, war in Asia.

 

[gozu]

TSMC stands for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Out of its 12 chip Fabs, only 1 is located in the US. the other 11 are either in Taiwan or in China.

TSMS's fab tech is a decade ahead of everybody else with no signs of abating. They make Apple, nVidia and AMD chips among others.

I don't think the USA would allow all the best high tech processor fabs in the world to be fully controlled by china.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

The West won't do anything

 

[monapon]

Personally, I think it's more likely we'll see what happened in hong kong :

China will trickle in pro china citizens who will vote pro china, the Taiwanese government will slowly but surely turn pro china and by the time they realize what's going on it will be too late.

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I'm not sure if you realize it but Taiwan and Hong Kong are in vastly different situations. Taiwan has its own independent government that is much harder for the PRC to meddle with because they don't have to answer to China unlike HK. Citizens of the PRC also can not just hop on over to Taiwan for a few years and then get the right to vote, they need to go through the immigration process vs in Hong Kong, where I think it's much easier to acquire voting rights. I mean, sure, technically, China can basically send people over to play the long game but Taiwanese officials, considering how sensitive they are to invasions from China of any type, would probably notice any sort of uptick in numbers of people from China applying for permanent residency. Earlier in the year, there was actually discussion of whether or not China could be sending its agents through HKers seeking asylum which goes to show how sensitive things are.

That and the general population is just growing more and more anti-China by the day thanks to China's constant bullying. There is no way China will be able to send the numbers needed to beat that growing sentiment.

 

[Snake Eater]

What can you do to a nuclear power?

 

[Crayolan]

The US would condemn the action but not do anything except potentially enact stronger economic sanctions. I can't see either Trump or Biden supporting unilateral war with China; at best the government might covertly supply weapons to Taiwan. Unless there's a huge UN coalition willing to reject China (extremely unlikely with China on the UNSC), China will be allowed to do what they please.

 

[BringBackSonics]

Recently, China has significantly intensified its propaganda about invasion of Taiwan.

China's biggest newspaper Globel Times published a editorial piece titled "Preparations for the mainland's military action against Taiwan have been fully launched". It explicitly talked about "Negotiation is not the way anymore. Taiwan's goverment is truly a vile power, it needs to be put down with military action." ( This not an english piece and didn't publish oversea)

Last night, CCTV bragged about the capturing of dozens of Taiwan "spies" and link them to Hong Kong's movement.

Some related social media hot topics were created by officials overnight, including "one country one system", "take Tsai Ing-wen alive", "This war will ended quickly"

I mean China does this every year but now it's reaching a new height . It worries people. Some speculates that Xi would do it if America's power transition didn't happen smoothly. Should the United States gets out of the ongoing mess and returns to stability, Xi will lose this opportunity forever.

So, how would America goverment react, If China invaded Taiwan during America's election and power transition period ? What do you expect to happen ?

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I do not believe we have a bilateral security agreement which requires us to defend Taiwan. So I think the United States will do everything up to actual military intervention (Sending arms, missile systems etc). I know Pompeo is trying to create the Quad into a tangiable economic/military alliance, but he is not there yet.

 

[gdt]

What can you do to a nuclear power?

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What can they do to you?

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I don't think it would get to a point where China could invade without action. If there was a significant military build up of Chinese forces (if, first they are capable of such an invasion) we'd see more US naval action around Taiwan, as well as joint air exercises. Beyond that we'd see Australian and Japanese cooperation with Taiwan, placing naval ships at their ports as a tripwire in case of military action. China may want to invade Taiwan but they wouldn't risk conflict with regional powers, especially with their lack of proper blue water fleets.

 

[kmfdmpig]

In terms of the idea that nothing would happen because China is a nuclear power - the logic goes both ways. Sinking a few ships and shooting down 50-100 planes to support Taiwan is clearly something that would piss off China quite a bit, but would they launch an all-out nuclear war, which would mean annihilation for the US and China (if not the world) over it? I doubt it. I think that the fear of nuclear deterrence would keep both countries from doing things too escalatory (attacking Beijing or DC, for example), but I don't think it means that there would never be a conventional conflict. Obviously leaders on both sides don't think that's how deterrence will work either as both countries spend a lot on capabilities aimed at countering the other.

They couldn't beat Vietnam, dunno how you could expect them to go up against China. They would just say angry words.

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Fighting individuals in the jungle and a naval/air war are not exactly the same thing.

 

[BringBackSonics]

To counter the blanket pessimism in this thread:

I think if China continues to ramp up their rhetoric against Taiwan, we'll see the reactivation of US bases in Taiwan. If the US-Taiwan alliance was bolstered with actual troops, by Taiwan's request, that would probably stop China in it's tracks (hopefully).

At that point, additional pressure or outright attack from China on Taiwan would result in a full scale war with US proxying against China. That's something no one wants.

Taiwanese politicians weigh in on suggested return of US bases | Taiwan News | 2020-09-24 10:55:00

Legislators respond to article calling for deployment of US troops in Taiwan to deter China | 2020-09-24 10:55:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

It's interesting, because while I hope that Taiwan calling for aid would be independent of the current Administration, I can't help but feel that Trump's existence makes that relationship tenser than it needs to be at this important juncture.

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There is no way that we have american forces in Taiwan until the Quad is actually a military alliance imho. Although I do agree with having american bases in the region (I know Palau also has requested US bases).

 

[Mekanos]

I feel like we're doomsdaying a scenario where China invades Taiwan when I see no reason to think it's in their best interest to do so anytime soon. Any statements about military action are peacocking; the risk/reward doesn't really shake out.

 

[Snake Eater]

What can they do to you?

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So who calls who's bluff?

 

[Deleted member 69501]

I actually think given trumps foreign policy has been all about, China bad. You might see some meaningful reaction, if it happens b4 election, post election... Maybe he tries and leverage the situation to remain in power, idk.

 

[0VERBYTE]

To be fair, China also didn't beat Vietnam when they invaded.

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Nor the French.

 

[QuantumZebra]

Nothing probably, China is nuclear armed, so the chances of a US intervention in Taiwan would be very low. Nobody wants two nuclear armed powers to come to blows.

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This.

The Nuclear Age has made it to where imperialism is pretty much unstoppable now. Look at Russia w/ Georgia/Osseita/Ukraine.

 

[jph139]

The "do nothing" takes are frankly pretty stupid. There's this idea that "China owns the west so they're powerless to intervene in Xinjiang/Hong Kong/Tibet/wherever" that just isn't the case - it's not that the United States COULDN'T stop it, they just don't want to. Those lives are meaningless to them. They're all within China's borders and there's no geopolitical benefit to protecting some random minority groups halfway around the world.

Taiwan IS valuable to the United States - even ignoring the longstanding economic and political ties, just as a psychological canary. Taiwan represents US hegemony in the Pacific. Assurances have been made by the US government that Chinese claims over Taiwan are illegitimate. If it becomes clear that the US doesn't actually have interest in protecting sovereign states against China - well, at that point, you can kind of put a fork in the US as a superpower.

Would the US go nuclear over it? Doubtful. But neither would the Chinese. The most likely scenario at this point in history is, China launches an attack, the US commits to support, there's some naval skirmishes, you get an uncomfortable truce or a Korea-esque "technically still at war but not really" type situation.

Someday, the US will be soft enough for China to knock that domino over, but not yet.

 

[Koukalaka]

I think we'd likely see some sort of massive build-up and preparation off the coastline if that were to take place. I saw predications in a doc on this topic that China would need to have something like a million personnel all-in-all for a mass amphibious and air assault that would be needed to take over a hostile island with a sizable established military.

Not to mention the hundreds of specialised vessels, aircraft etc all ready to go, with extensive rehearsals taking place beforehand - it'd be one of the largest, if not the largest, military operations since 1945 and not something you'd want to improv. Make no mistake, I think we'll start seeing this happen with this shift in rhetoric, but I expect it to ramp up over 5-10 years rather than take place overnight.

 

[Kormora]

welp

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Utterly useless though. If there was an invasion the building wouldn't mean much strategically and likely the Taiwanese President would be moved to elsewhere underground bunkers.

 

[gdt]

So who calls who's bluff?

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Indeed


Mostly likely, they just blow hot air at each other.

Or cold war this shit

 

[Deleted member 17092]

Taiwan has a lot of air power purchased from the US don't they? I don't think they would go down easily and I think the US would roll in carrier fleets and keep PRC boots on the ground from becoming a reality. I don't think the PRC would risk hot war with US carrier groups.

In short, I do not think China would risk such a bold move and Taiwan and the US have very strong counters in place namely in the form of air power and said carrier groups that China is not gonna fuck with.

The PRC taiwan position is just a propaganda generator imo to keep giving the population something to think about.

 

[BringBackSonics]

Its clear that the west/impacted countries in the region will need a long term strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

 

[caliph95]

I don't thinks Crimea is equivalent to Taiwan
Because unfortunately more big countries especially US care about Taiwan than they do Crimea
Meaning countries will actually do something about Taiwan
I doubt China will go that far because they stand to lose a lot if they do and American might actually put up a meaningful reponse

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

The same way the US reacted to China crushing democracy in Hong Kong.
The US would do fuck all.

 

[Deleted member 17092]

Wow, I'm shocked at the responses here. A bunch of low effort thinking here.

The US would be forced to respond, but that doesn't necessarily mean a declaration of war on China.

Realistically, American forces move in to support Taiwan. I think some sort of blockade to start with.

It wouldn't be an easy invasion btw. Taiwan has been preparing forever, with the US's help.

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Most people do not have a solid understanding of Taiwan's strategic position in the pacific nor the amount of arms the US has provided to Taiwan, for decades. They also have no real understanding of how fucking scary a US carrier fleet is and that China in no way shape or form is going to start a hot war with said carrier fleets in the pacific. Like if they fired on a carrier fleet, Um yeah, that isn't gonna go well for them.

 

[UberTag]

China can invade any non-nuclear armed country it so chooses and face little in the way of repercussions for doing so.
That said, it would still be preferable if they didn't. Probably even more preferable for China.

 

[Sordid Plebeian]

Trump would do either nothing or something incredibly reckless if committing to not leaving office, but more likely the former. I would hope the sheer level of outcry and economic repercussions of such an attack would be enough of a deterrent.

The following presidency would support Taiwan of course.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I doubt there'd be anything done no matter who is President besides maybe sanctions.

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Yep.

US isn't starting a wold war over Taiwan, as much as we like them. That said, I can't imagine Xi would avoid sanctions worldwide regardless of how long it takes the US to figure it out.

 

[sibarraz]

Aren't the United States Armed Forces still incredibly strong compared to the chinese ones? I don't understand all this doomsday scenarios where China could easily wipe the big cities in America when the chinese probably have a bigger argument to fear a potential retaliation from the United States

Even the Vietnam argument doesn't make sense, one thing is to withdraw from an unnecesary war that was getting too costly for its own worth and with not much local support versus defending your own territory/hegemony. How the public will view an invasion of China to Taiwan and how relevant is that zone to the USA would play a huge factor on how the USA would respond

 

[BringBackSonics]

Really the only effective deterrance to Chinese agression is to contain/deter them, The Quad is ready to be upgraded to be something more substantial. If China really starts to rattle the saber, I can see it becoming a reality quickly.

 

[navanman]

TSMC stands for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Out of its 12 chip Fabs, only 1 is located in the US. the other 11 are either in Taiwan or in China.

TSMS's fab tech is a decade ahead of everybody else with no signs of abating. They make Apple, nVidia and AMD chips among others.

I don't think the USA would allow all the best high tech processor fabs in the world to be fully controlled by china.

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This is big reason right here why the US & Europe will care ALOT if it happens.
The shock to the semi-conductor supply chain would catastrophic for the industry.

China would love to get their hands on the FABs & technology after Trumps recent embargo against SMIC.

 

[Kayla]

No matter who is president the US will defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Not defending them is not even an option.

 

[zma1013]

"You can't do that, only we can do that."

 

[Snake Eater]

Indeed


Mostly likely, they just blow hot air at each other.

Or cold war this shit

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I think we both know it's always going to be Cold War shit

 

[elty]

They are not going to do it.

 

[Pet]

Yup. Especially North Korea. Basically, Kim Jong-Un could easily consider an attack on Taiwan as a signal that China will attempt to consume his dictatorship in the name of Chinese expansion.

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L O L

I don't think China is against mass-murder of civilians, but China would absolutely want the VAST-majority of Taiwan's tech infrastructure to not be damaged which limits just outright bombing Taipei and other big cities.

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Yes.

Taiwan has been preparing and arming-up for 70 years specifically to combat the PLA. The Taiwan straight is narrow, and there are few landing points that make tactical sense. Many PLA would be slaughtered D-day style just on the landing if they could get past the anti-ship cruise missles and mines. Taiwan knows it's landing zones better than anyone and has again for the last 70 years built underground tunnels and all kinds of defensible surprises on these points. ...Past the beaches and landing heads Taiwan's natural terrain is muddy and mountainous, very easy to defend and not so easy to invade.

It is a logistics nightmare for the PLA and an absolute bloodbath to boot.

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Eh. No and yes.

Personally, I think it's more likely we'll see what happened in hong kong :

China will trickle in pro china citizens who will vote pro china, the Taiwanese government will slowly but surely turn pro china and by the time they realize what's going on it will be too late.

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This is the most likely one I think.

 

[Lowrys]

The "do nothing" takes are frankly pretty stupid. There's this idea that "China owns the west so they're powerless to intervene in Xinjiang/Hong Kong/Tibet/wherever" that just isn't the case - it's not that the United States COULDN'T stop it, they just don't want to. Those lives are meaningless to them. They're all within China's borders and there's no geopolitical benefit to protecting some random minority groups halfway around the world.

Taiwan IS valuable to the United States - even ignoring the longstanding economic and political ties, just as a psychological canary. Taiwan represents US hegemony in the Pacific. Assurances have been made by the US government that Chinese claims over Taiwan are illegitimate. If it becomes clear that the US doesn't actually have interest in protecting sovereign states against China - well, at that point, you can kind of put a fork in the US as a superpower.

Would the US go nuclear over it? Doubtful. But neither would the Chinese. The most likely scenario at this point in history is, China launches an attack, the US commits to support, there's some naval skirmishes, you get an uncomfortable truce or a Korea-esque "technically still at war but not really" type situation.

Someday, the US will be soft enough for China to knock that domino over, but not yet.

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Great post, thank you.

 

[Fugu]

I mean, if you read Taiwanese media these days it sounds like they expect very little from the US (and an increasing amount from India).

 

[werezompire]

I feel like an outright invasion of Taiwan is the kind of thing that could spark a world war. Every country in Asia and South-East would view China invading another country as a serious sign of intent that they're going to be next. Taiwan has enough firepower (purchased from the US) & planning that an invasion attempt would be very costly. And there are many powerful corporations and governments that are heavily invested in Taiwan that would be very angry with their interests being threatened by a war.

China has attempted to covertly influence politics in Taiwan and get their own agents elected, but with how they've treated Hong Kong, anti-Chinese sentiment in Taiwan is high and rising. And Tsai Ing-wen's government's handling of Covid-19 (arguably the best handled in the entire world) most likely has raised her popularity to an all-time high.

 

[Kill3r7]

Trump would ramp up the trade war but at the end of the day no major power is going to war against China unless they are directly attacked.