How much will NSMBU Deluxe sell?

[Deleted member 278]

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe is arriving soon next month, and it got me wonder. How much is it gonna sell?

On one hand you have people who are certain the NSMB brand is worn out and can't do a fraction of its previous numbers. One the other hand, so far every Wii U game ported to Switch handily outdoes the original. So where's this one going to end up, Era?

Personally, I think it will perform similarly to NSMB2 and even has to components to surpass it, for a few reasons:

• Switch software in general performs much stronger than 3DS software
• NSMBU is a far better game and I think reviews will reflect that
• A lot of people's last experience with the franchise was on Wii, I think any franchise fatigue is long gone by now
• Most importantly, the easily accessible local multiplayer options on Switch will be a HUGE boon for this one

 

[Kamiyouni]

five copies
I'm from the future, I know this.

 

[WestEgg]

Enough to make a lot of Era mad.

I'll say more than 8 million LTD.

 

[Sub Boss]

People love some Mario and the last 2D one was on Wii U

 

[DarkDetective]

New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold 12.82 million copies, while New Super Mario Bros. U sold only 5.77 million copies. So that's a gap of 7.05 million copies to be filled. That's the baseline for me. I personally expect it will grow towards the same number New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold. These games are slow but steady sellers after all.

 

[IDreamOfHime]

NSMB2 on 3ds sold insanely and was awful, so i think this will do pretty well.

 

[HighFive]

At that $59.99 U.S. price tag, not sure it will reach Wii U numbers. Got it on Wii U, and keeping it there.

 

[Aaron]

Around 10 million

 

[Phil's Empty Chair]

I forgot this game exists.

 

[Penguin]

I'm going for broke here

It's been 5 years since last proper 2D Mario game.. that most didn't buy

It has 4 player co-op unlike NSMB 2

I'm going with mid-teens like 15-17 million for this.

 

[Spring-Loaded]

< 2 million w/o Bowsette DLC

> 20 million w/Bowsette DLC

 

[Deleted member 249]

5-8 million seems reasonable to me.

 

[Amaterasu]

Enough to upset a lot of people. Because ports don't deserve to sell or something like that.
I'm guessing 6-8 million. Though it could be higher with all the hungry new Switch owners.

 

[Mediking]

Its gonna sell pretty well. Lol I'm downloading it. I've been downloading any cool looking Switch game these days.

 

[Joule]

although i owned a wii u i never got around to this game. so i'll be buying it

 

[Raijinto]

Yeah it's well positioned to sell better than the original version. Not sure how many more it'll sell though. Maybe it'll reach 10 million, I'm gonna say it'll fall short of that but only just.

9 million.

 

[New Donker]

Going 8-13 million. A lot of people got a Switch yesterday and the timing of this game is perfect.

 

[LegendofLex]

I think it'll have a pretty good splash (8+ million) simply by virtue of being a 2D Mario game that most Switch owners haven't been exposed to before. But I have a hard time seeing it pull off the success of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe when it didn't really excite people on Wii U (even relative to MK8 on Wii U), and doesn't have a strong hook like Odyssey did.

I'd feel a lot better about it if it felt like Nintendo was actually trying to market it as a tentpole Mario game.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

10 mil+ LTD. won't reach the numbers of smash, mario kart, odyssey and botw but will be a huge success nonetheless.

 

[Argot]

I'm gonna stick with 7-10m. A lot of this depends on how heavily they want to market it and how aggressively they'll bundle it down the line. I don't think the NSMB subseries has enough gas in the tank to provide the unprecedented numbers it once did, but it's also a co-op 2D Mario on a system where first party software sells ridiculously unless your name is Sushi Striker.

 

[RobbRivers]

If it were launched at 40€ price tag it would have sell a ton... but 60€ is too steep for a port...

 

[Proc]

I'll buy it on a discount! 5-8M sounds about right.

 

[Neptonic]

More than Odyssey

 

[sir_crocodile]

It's one of the best Mario games ever and new to a lot of people, but it also has very little extra content for wiiu NSMBU owners (unless they didn't buy NSLU), so I would guess better then Wii U, but not more then 1.5 times it - maybe around 8? I may be lowballing but I'm very confident that's not highballing.

 

[jeelybeans]

How has Donkey Kong Country done between Wii U and Switch? Shouldn't the percentage jump there be a good indicator for the Switch bump for Nintendo published 2D platformers?

 

[Knight613]

This was actually a good game. Plus 2D Mario tends to do better than 3D Mario.

I'd say at least 10 million easy.

 

[DarkMagician]

BOTW was a Day 1 port
Mario Kart was a 3 year old port
This game is a 6+ year old port
None of the other ports were as old as this one.
But then again, pretty sure most people don't know this game existed.

 

[Ge0force]

I'm not sure... It's a great game, but the €60 price tag is ridiculous.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

If it were launched at 40€ price tag it would have sell a ton... but 60€ is too steep for a port...

Click to shrink...

it wasn't for donkey kong, bayonetta, mario kart, hyrule warriors, pokken, it's not gonna be too much for nsmbu.

More than Odyssey

Click to shrink...

absolutely no way

 

[Carolina Reaper]

5-8 million. It'll do really well.

 

[srtrestre]

Well I'm buying it, so that's 1. My co-worker is buying it also, so that's 2. Maybe the pros can take it from here.

 

[The Great Khali]

Can someone calculate Mario Kart 8 sales for Wii U. And calculate the percentage Switch version sold more in comparison. Then calculate that same percentage for NSMBU.

 

[Kiraly]

Enough to make every thread of it fill up with enraged people stating over and over again that Nintendo should feel disgusted for selling a x year old port for 60 bucks.

 

[JaseMath]

Hopefully enough to warrant a SM3DW port.

 

[YukiroCTX]

Going to be bold and say 13 million+. 2D Mario's have performed just as well as 3D, it's a remaster at $60 but it's packed with two games and we've seen games like MK8 perform incredibly well as there's a large audience who haven't played these games. It's releasing in Jan so very little games on Switch to compete against. The Switch is also coming off a huge successful holiday so people are likely going to look for more games to buy.

 

[Jakenbakin]

Even though I own this I think I'll be buying it again as I never got the Luigi DLC. And my wife wants everything on the Switch.

Personally I think 8-9 million sounds about right. Which will be insane in itself...

 

[Servbot24]

I'm guessing 8 million. Successful, but not like previous iterations.

 

[Boiled Goose]

At that $59.99 U.S. price tag, not sure it will reach Wii U numbers. Got it on Wii U, and keeping it there.

Click to shrink...

Switch userbase is bigger than wiiu userbase.

 

[Boiled Goose]

It's only a port to the 3 WiiU owners

 

[Plum]

I doubt it'll go into the upper 10s of millions but it'll do fairly well for sure. My personal thought is that the name is gonna hurt it at least a little; it's the only Wii U port explicitly connected to the Wii U era through name. Though I guess for most that won't matter.

 

[LegendofLex]

Switch userbase is bigger than wiiu userbase.

Click to shrink...

by the end of the year, the Switch install base will be greater than twice the Wii U install base.

 

[Yoshimitsu126]

Hard to predict. Unlike Let's Go, I dont know anyone excited about this port online or offline. It's a port so I don't expect it to have as much hype as a new game. But I feel like this game will appeal more to the mainstream and casual gamers than dedicated gamers than Let's Go.

 

[Friskykillface]

It'll be huge with it being a multiplayer game too
Like NSMB Wii, that sold a ton

 

[404LinkNotFound]

im gonna say 13 million plus. At least as much as NSMB2. Honestly anything over 10+ would be pretty spectacular
Edit: Plus it has coop. Coop games are pretty popular this day and age

 

[Foffy]

If Tropical Freeze sold more on Switch than on Wii U, I imagine the same will hold true here.

 

[Kiraly]

Can someone calculate Mario Kart 8 sales for Wii U. And calculate the percentage Switch version sold more in comparison. Then calculate that same percentage for NSMBU.

Click to shrink...

8 sold 8.42 million as of September 30, 2018.

8 Deluxe sold 11.71 million as of the same date.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

Can someone calculate Mario Kart 8 sales for Wii U. And calculate the percentage Switch version sold more in comparison. Then calculate that same percentage for NSMBU.

Click to shrink...

we know where mario kart ended up on wii u, but we don't know how much it'll end up selling on the switch until the system is dead (and it will sell until then), this thread is about lifetime sales so it would be hard to tell based on the numbers we got.

 

[ghibli99]

Even though I own this I think I'll be buying it again as I never got the Luigi DLC. And my wife wants everything on the Switch.

Click to shrink...

You're in for a treat with NSLU. :)

 

[Champion]

I just don't see a 2D Mario game on a healthy platform selling <10 million. Port or not.

 

[TheCrackedJack]

Hard to say, on one hand, it's a Mario platformer so it's going to sell well. Although, I don't think it's aged very well visually compared to the other ports. To the casual observer it's no better looking the IOS Mario game that was launched at like 10 dollars (pretty sure they share assets). Plus, you have Indie games like Hollow Knight, Shantae, Monster Boy and the like that curb stomp it graphically, musically, and production value wise despite being much smaller and cheaper productions.

But then again, it's a 2D Mario game.