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How long do you guys expect this gen to last and why?
- Thread starter Sid
- Start date
I could see this gen lasting 8 years like the PS3/360/Wii one just because 2021 is going to be backing everything up with the delays and whatnot. Not to mention 2021 is a wash for a lot of people wanting new consoles since demand is insanely higher than the current supply.
About as long as the previous one.
Moreover, 3.8 ghz~ (8C/16TH) CPUs and 9.7TF/12TF GPU + high-speed storage, on paper is a much better baseline compared to the previous-gen. Still insane considering the price imo XD
Perhaps even longer considering that the launch in 2020 and 2021 are really scarce in availability.
Moreover, 3.8 ghz~ (8C/16TH) CPUs and 9.7TF/12TF GPU + high-speed storage, on paper is a much better baseline compared to the previous-gen. Still insane considering the price imo XD
Perhaps even longer considering that the launch in 2020 and 2021 are really scarce in availability.
Aaww shit...here we go.....
I played it safe and said 2027. I dont see Sony or MS doing a Pro version. I think it could be a normal one for them.
Nintendo....not even sure how fit into all this now.
Yeah, same. This is the first time I've gotten a console at launch and said "damn, this really feels like a high-end PC". I feel like both PS5 and XSX can comfortably stand ~8 years.
Considering that generational transitions happen to allow console hardware to catch up with tech advancements, I'd guess it would be the same 7 years. Nvidia is going to move to 5nm, 3nm and finally 1 nm by that time. And their DLSS tech will only keep improving. As such, in 7 years, the latest Nvidia GPUs will be capable of things far beyond what's possible with console hardware. Sony can't wait too long for the fear that Microsoft will release a powerful next-gen console early, Microsoft can't wait too long for the same fear, and so both will be forced to stick to the usual timeline.
I'm not expecting the next-generation to start until the end of 2027. Given the comparative power (and likely expense to develop) of the current machines both Sony and MS will likely want the same 7 year life cycle of the PS4/XB1, if not more.
2027, no mid-gen upgrade. I think we'll see new form factors with minor feature changes (slim models) but no substantial spec bumps.
While I ended up an immediate adopter of both the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X last gen, I don't think they sold well enough on the whole for either manufacturer to care to try and research and develop one this generation, especially since the general pricing for the "standard" model (PS5 with disc drive, Xbox Series X) has gone up substantially compared to the baseline last gen, and there's little spec difference between the machines so there's probably a sense that releasing a new spec machine will upset some developers by creating yet another spec target, especially in a market where Microsoft already has two spec targets with the Series S and the Series X. To be honest, I do doubt that the number of developers that found the multiple spec targets of last gen (and in the case of Xbox, the rolling spec target as it features support for full Xbox One back compat) difficult to work with is high, but I do imagine the few that didn't find it comfortable were quite vocal about it. Purely speculation, though -- admittedly, if there's any challenge issued to prove it, I will come up short. I just imagine it creates some discomfort and dissatisfaction for some.
On the other hand, I could see Sony or Microsoft releasing a spec bump at some point in order to definitively hold the spec advantage at some point in the generation, but either one has to be anticipating the other to have a plan to counter it after a year in a way that Xbox One X followed the PS4 Pro by a year. But ultimately, I am guessing the audience of consumers that actually cares enough to invest in the mid-gen refreshes is much smaller than people who just buy the base console and don't mind using it until the next numbered console comes along.
While I ended up an immediate adopter of both the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X last gen, I don't think they sold well enough on the whole for either manufacturer to care to try and research and develop one this generation, especially since the general pricing for the "standard" model (PS5 with disc drive, Xbox Series X) has gone up substantially compared to the baseline last gen, and there's little spec difference between the machines so there's probably a sense that releasing a new spec machine will upset some developers by creating yet another spec target, especially in a market where Microsoft already has two spec targets with the Series S and the Series X. To be honest, I do doubt that the number of developers that found the multiple spec targets of last gen (and in the case of Xbox, the rolling spec target as it features support for full Xbox One back compat) difficult to work with is high, but I do imagine the few that didn't find it comfortable were quite vocal about it. Purely speculation, though -- admittedly, if there's any challenge issued to prove it, I will come up short. I just imagine it creates some discomfort and dissatisfaction for some.
On the other hand, I could see Sony or Microsoft releasing a spec bump at some point in order to definitively hold the spec advantage at some point in the generation, but either one has to be anticipating the other to have a plan to counter it after a year in a way that Xbox One X followed the PS4 Pro by a year. But ultimately, I am guessing the audience of consumers that actually cares enough to invest in the mid-gen refreshes is much smaller than people who just buy the base console and don't mind using it until the next numbered console comes along.
I don't expect this gen to end, to be honest.
Well... not in the traditional sense. I expect it to ultimately become what would be known as the longest "cross-gen" period ever. Probably last 4+ years into the next gen.
They would just become 1080p consoles to the next gen 4K consoles.
Well... not in the traditional sense. I expect it to ultimately become what would be known as the longest "cross-gen" period ever. Probably last 4+ years into the next gen.
They would just become 1080p consoles to the next gen 4K consoles.
I would've said 7 years, but folks in this thread make a good point about how the coronavirus will probably have caused a lasting delay in the generation as well. I voted 8 years
according to wikipedia, the Switch is Nintendo's 2nd 8th gen console and not a 9th
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I believe, that at the core, what necessitates any new generation comes down to technological leaps. CPU, GPU, RAM and IO.
If comparing the current to last-gen,there are things in the hardware that you can look at and say, "na, last-gen consoles will fall behind if anything is made to take advantage of this specific hardware feature/combination of hardware features.
I do not believe that a similar argument can be made when the next-gen consoles come along. Are we gonna have a CPU that is 5-8x more powerful? GPUs that are 4-6x more powerful? 2-4x more RAM? OrIO that is 4-10x faster than what we have here now in 8-12 years?
I think not. And as such, believe that when the nextgen comes along, the technological leap would amount to the smallest ever seen going from one generation to another. The least significant. Think more like going from PS4 to PS4pro than fromPS4 to PS5.
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I think it'll be a pretty big jump next gen, after that I think we would be done with the concept of generations
I think this gen s already that relly big jump... and that this generation actually marks the beginning of the end of that concept of generations.
there is nothing else that can be added to these consoles that would result or mark a generational shift in hardware design. Nothing that isn't scaleable.
I could see both the PS5/XSX lasting 9-10 years due to how much longer games are likely to take to make and with how powerful their hardware is. With the Switch, I'm expecting it to last 7 years, unless the Switch Pro really helps extend its life or ends up becoming a new base model when the next iterative model comes out
2027 - 7 years, no mid gen update, just the standard slim type updates.
these units both releasing with far more competent hardware compared to last gen, in addition to the worldwide chip shortage hampering the next gen gpu adoption will negate the need for a mid gen refresh IMO
these units both releasing with far more competent hardware compared to last gen, in addition to the worldwide chip shortage hampering the next gen gpu adoption will negate the need for a mid gen refresh IMO
There was a whole bunch of talk a few years ago about how Microsoft was moving 'beyond generations' i.e. following a patter somewhat like mobile phones with more regularly updated hardware but able to run the same software. That seems to have died down a bit, but I still expect multiple different XBoxes, probably following a X/S pattern with incremental improvements. On that basis the generation will probably last a long time.
2028 sounds about right for this gen. 2026 feels to short, especially since this first year is going to be hampered by shortages and game delays. Feel like we will get mid gen upgrades again or at least redesigns id guess 2024/25 that might push for 8K if that actually takes off in any substantial way. That's my main reasoning though.
I'm playing the same games (literally) at higher rez/framerates.
Owned both PS5/XSX since release and haven't bought a single "next-gen only" game.
When I eventually do, It'll just be another game I add to my library in the same ecosystem, but playable on less machines.
To be honest, I knew I'd feel this way since they announced X1/PS4 would be x86 architecture.
Just to illustrate, a couple of days ago I had a mini-LAN with my friends playing Outriders, one person on X1S, another on X1X and me on XSX.
Which is great. But it's not like when I went from SNES to PS1/N64. In any way.
Corona + chip shortages got everything fucked, so I'm expecting a slightly longer generation this time. 8-10 years minimum.
Makes sense, thanks for the break down.
I'm in the same boat myself -- was fortunate and able to get both new systems at launch and have mostly played cross-gen games at higher framerates/resolutions too, the only exceptions being Demon's Souls and Astro.
I don't really perceive the whole new generation as a continuation of the last one, maybe just this current software phase -- not sure if that's what you intended to say. I just asked because I thought you were of the mindset that you're going to hold that perception for the entire haul of the generation.
Well yeah, I do expect to feel this way for the duration, I kind of bought into the MS view of how generations will work. And they convinced me even further when they release their mid-gen refresh with X1X.
I'm hugely into PC and when I saw that with x86 consoles will retain BC going forward, in my mind, proper console generations were over and done with forever.
I'll still abide by gens because it's easier to reference periods of gaming history that way, but it'll feel more like smartphone upgrades than what gens used to be.
Mid gen refresh with dlss support and this gen could last very long (and that's positivt). If next step going to be 8k simultaneously as the Industry is fokusing on subscription services where there is important that so many as possible can subscribe ..... This generation will probably be the absolute longest so far.
My guess is 2029/2030. Would be nice if someone could quote me 9 years from now and remind everyone that i was right.
My guess is 2029/2030. Would be nice if someone could quote me 9 years from now and remind everyone that i was right.
Ah, yeah, I see that perspective too. I can't help but still expect a sort of "this is finally next-gen" moment to come up and kinda change the landscape definitively, though. I, however, sometimes believe that might be a bit misguided, and honestly I feel like the 60fps upgrade over last gen that we're currently experiencing is shifting my hopes and expectations for the long term, too. At this very moment, sight-unseen of what these new consoles could potentially do in terms of graphical fidelity after a few years, I would say that I'd almost prefer games to stay at this fidelity and continue to target 60fps (or 120fps for fast-paced multiplayer games). But I get you, no argument from me, just thinking out loud and riffing off your responses. :)
Too many early takes here.
Not saying that game design will drastically change, but give it a few years until we see what these new consoles can actually bring. Something like Ratchet and clank is just scratching the surface and is an indicator of what can be done.
Not saying that game design will drastically change, but give it a few years until we see what these new consoles can actually bring. Something like Ratchet and clank is just scratching the surface and is an indicator of what can be done.
