How Joe Biden attracts both black voters and racially ‘resentful’ voters

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...-both-black-voters-racially-resentful-voters/

Some interesting data crunching on voter preference predictors from the MIT Election Lab.

...racial resentment and sexism more strongly predict support for the former vice president than many other demographics and policy views do...

As you move from the least sexist to the most sexist Democratic voter, the likelihood of voting for Biden rises by 19 percentage points — and decreases for Warren by 24 points. Strikingly, while sexism correlates with support for Biden regardless of a voter's gender, the dynamic works differently in the case of Sanders: Sexist men prefer Sanders more than non-sexists do, but women who hold sexist views do not gravitate to him.

Anti-black racial resentment also dictates, in different ways, preferences for Biden, Warren and Harris. All else being equal, Biden's vote share increases by 27 points going from the least to the most racially resentful primary voter. Meanwhile, more racially progressive Democrats — especially racially progressive whites — side heavily with Warren, which makes sense, given her messages on the campaign trail, such as explicitly calling the U.S. criminal justice system racist. Anti-black prejudice, not surprisingly, dampens support for the leading black candidate, Harris. It appears not to affect backing for Sanders.

But also...

Controlling for such factors as age and income, Biden's support is 18 percentage points higher among blacks than it is among whites.

Other demographic info, age, gender, income:

Some breakdown of the sexism / racism dynamics:

Crayolan · Sep 7, 2019

What's with the title? This gives data on a lot more than factors related to bigotry in regards to Biden and it doesn't even explain "how" he attracts voters, just states that he does.

Why not just use the title of the study: "How policy priorities affect Democratic primary preferences."

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

Crayolan said:
What's with the title? This gives data on a lot more than factors related to bigotry in regards to Biden and it doesn't even explain "how" he attracts voters, just states that he does.

It's the name of the WaPo article.

Crayolan said:
Why not just use the title of the study: "How policy priorities affect Democratic primary preferences."

That's just the title of the graphic.

anamika · Sep 7, 2019

Just looking at policy issues alone, it's still baffling that black voters are going for Biden. Because Obama.

konka · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
Just looking at policy issues alone, it's still baffling that black voters are going for Biden. Because Obama.

The reasons that black voters prefer Biden are not baffling.

Crayolan · Sep 7, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
It's the name of the WaPo article.

That's just the title of the graphic.

Oh ok well then that makes more sense, though it's still a weird title on the part of WaPo.

anamika · Sep 7, 2019

konka said:
The reasons that black voters prefer Biden are not baffling.

Because Obama right? Why else do they prefer him given that Warren and Sanders have better healthcare, economic and prison reform policies?

ianpm31 · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
Just looking at policy issues alone, it's still baffling that black voters are going for Biden. Because Obama.

Same reason why they picked Hilary. Policy alone should be Warren or Bernie. I just think they are voting against their own interests but I'm not a person of color so don't take my word for it.

base_two · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
Just looking at policy issues alone, it's still baffling that black voters are going for Biden. Because Obama.

It's not just because of Obama. Everytime I hear that it sounds like its said with undertones of racism. The black vote in the Democratic party is quite moderate, especially considering the amount of votes coming from the "bible belt". Its been that way for awhile. Biden is the suitable candidate for the moderate at the moment.

BowieZ · Sep 7, 2019

That's about as positive a spin you can get for research that shows Biden has a paucity of support among policy-aware voters, and those who do support him support him cos they seem to dislike minorities.

ianpm31 · Sep 7, 2019

base_two said:
It's not just because of Obama. Everytime I hear that it sounds like its said with undertones of racism. The black vote in the Democratic party is quite moderate, especially considering the amount of votes coming from the "bible belt". Its been that way for awhile. Biden is the suitable candidate for the moderate at the moment.

I live in the south and it still doesn't quite make sense to me but fair enough.

anamika · Sep 7, 2019

base_two said:
It's not just because of Obama. Everytime I hear that it sounds like its said with undertones of racism. The black vote in the Democratic party is quite moderate, especially considering the amount of votes coming from the "bible belt". Its been that way for awhile. Biden is the suitable candidate for the moderate at the moment.

So you are saying black voters in the south are socially conservative because it's the bible belt? I am not sure what you mean by 'moderate' here.

masud · Sep 7, 2019

Love how this article can't bring itself to say racist but has no problem calling voters sexist.

anamika said:
So you are saying black voters in the south are socially conservative because it's the bible belt? I am not sure what you mean by 'moderate' here.

That's about right, many black people are church going southerners and are to the right of the average white liberal on a lot of issues. They're not Republicans largely because that party panders to people that hate us.

SurrenderDorothy · Sep 7, 2019

masud said:
Love how this article can't bring itself to say racist but has no problem calling voters sexist.

Lol, yeah.

Just call them what they are.

Rei no Otaku · Sep 7, 2019

base_two said:
It's not just because of Obama. Everytime I hear that it sounds like its said with undertones of racism. The black vote in the Democratic party is quite moderate, especially considering the amount of votes coming from the "bible belt". Its been that way for awhile. Biden is the suitable candidate for the moderate at the moment.

I guess that's why I don't get it. I'm black and I cannot see why anyone would vote for Biden in the primary. I'm from New England though, and my family isn't religious at all.

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

BowieZ said:
That's about as positive a spin you can get for research that shows Biden has a paucity of support among policy-aware voters, and those who do support him support him cos they seem to dislike minorities.

I'm not sure where you're getting "policy-aware" from; does not prioritize/support policy X =/= not aware of/ has no view on policy X.

masud said:
Love how this article can't bring itself to say racist but has no problem calling voters sexist.

They're specific social science indices.

Steel · Sep 7, 2019

base_two said:
It's not just because of Obama. Everytime I hear that it sounds like its said with undertones of racism. The black vote in the Democratic party is quite moderate, especially considering the amount of votes coming from the "bible belt". Its been that way for awhile. Biden is the suitable candidate for the moderate at the moment.

While this is true (owing to the fact that pretty much all black voters have no choice but to vote democrat because of republicans), Biden would not be where he is with anyone if he wasn't Obama's VP.

BowieZ said:
That's about as positive a spin you can get for research that shows Biden has a paucity of support among policy-aware voters, and those who do support him support him cos they seem to dislike minorities.

Policy aware voters are Harris/Warren, but even then that's the bare minimum of "policy aware". Actually, let me edit that since that's not what this poll says, the voters that go Biden just don't care for M4A and otherwise. That being said most people who support M4A wouldn't if they knew the details according to numerous other polls and the public consenus is for a public option as Biden/Beto/Butti support.

masud · Sep 7, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
I'm not sure where you're getting "policy-aware" from; does not prioritize/support policy X =/= not aware of/ has no view on policy X.
They're specific social science indices.

Ok then the issue is with the social science jargon and not the journalist. Point stands.

BowieZ · Sep 7, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
I'm not sure where you're getting "policy-aware" from; does not prioritize/support policy X =/= not aware of/ has no view on policy X.
They're specific social science indices.

Hmm? If people who knowingly support or oppose "issue A" (whom I would say are policy-aware regarding "issue A") ... are largely unmoved by the thought of Biden, then that is a pool of policy-aware voters Biden isn't exciting (or deterring).

By looking at that graph, the only policy Biden gets a strong reaction from is "deporting illegal immigrants" (very favorable, but not a particularly left-wing issue), and "adopting renewables by 2035" (somewhat unfavorable, which is also not very left-wing)... (and to a lesser extent, the same applies to "abolishing ICE").

The other two that the researcher conjured up are not issues or policy.

Steel · Sep 7, 2019

BowieZ said:
Hmm? If people who knowingly support or oppose "issue A" (whom I would say are policy-aware regarding "issue A") ... are largely unmoved by the thought of Biden, then that is a pool of policy-aware voters Biden isn't exciting (or deterring).

By looking at that graph, the only policy Biden gets a strong reaction from is "deporting illegal immigrants" (very favorable, but not a particularly left-wing issue), and "adopting renewables by 2035" (somewhat unfavorable, which is also not very left-wing)... (and to a lesser extent, the same applies to "abolishing ICE").

The other two that the researcher conjured up are not issues or policy.

The graph isn't polling favorability, but demographics and views in aggregate of supporters. You also have things like abortion up there, taxing the rich, etc.

Zelas · Sep 7, 2019

Crayolan said:
What's with the title? This gives data on a lot more than factors related to bigotry in regards to Biden and it doesn't even explain "how" he attracts voters, just states that he does.

Why not just use the title of the study: "How policy priorities affect Democratic primary preferences."

Agreed.

A NYT opinion piece that highlighted various studies, surveys, and essays made the rounds a few months back covered the "why" pretty well.

And it just further documents what was pointed out early last year. White leftists aren't very representative of the party.

The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate (Published 2019)

A detailed look at the voters with the numbers to decide the 2020 Democratic nominee.

www.nytimes.com

Excerpts from opinion piece:

This division revealed itself most recently in the CBS battleground tracking surveys of Democratic voters in the first 18 states that will hold primaries. Kabir Khanna, a senior elections manager at CBS, provided detailed findings on these key voters.

CBS broke them into three roughly equal groups.

The first two groups are made up of those who say they are "very liberal" and those who say they are "somewhat liberal." Both groups are two-thirds white and have substantial — but for the Democratic Party below average— minority representation. They are roughly a quarter African-American and Hispanic.

Those in the third group are Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as moderate to conservative. This group has the largest number of minorities; it is 26 percent black, 19 percent Hispanic, 7 percent other nonwhites, and it has the smallest percentage of whites, at 48 percent.

Over the past decade, the baseline attitudes expressed by white liberals on racial and social justice questions have become radically more liberal.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

He cited what he called "one especially telling example":

White liberals recently became the only demographic group in America to display a pro-outgroup bias — meaning that among all the different groups surveyed white liberals were the only one that expressed a preference for other racial and ethnic communities above their own.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

Particularly significant — because it weakens the case that mobilization of minorities requires advocacy of very liberal policies across the board — Goldberg found that

black and Asian Democrats andliberals are significantly more supportive of restrictive immigration policies and less positive toward racial/ethnic diversity than their white counterparts.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

Furthermore, Goldberg writes, black and Hispanic Democrats are more likely to part ways with white liberals "when it comes to contemporary social and gender-identity issues, including views of the #MeToo movement."

Andrew Engelhardt, a political scientist at Brown whose recent work includes "Racial Attitudes through a Partisan Lens" and "Trumped by Race: Explanations for Race's Influence on Whites' Votes in 2016," has documented the increasingly progressive views of white liberals on racial issues between early 2016 and late 2018.

During this period, Engelhardt wrote, "white Democrats' average levels of racial resentment declined nearly 16 percentage points." This is by far the biggest attitudinal shift to the left — or the right, for that matter — in the last 30 years, a reaction driven in large part by Trump's race baiting.

Traditionally, candidates on both sides of the aisle move back to the center once they have secured the nomination. In March 2012, Eric Fehrnstrom, a spokesman for Mitt Romney, was asked if the candidate's conservative stands in the primaries "would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?"
Fehrnstrom famously replied:

Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch-A-Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

In practice, though, with virtually everything a candidate says now recorded for posterity, it has become increasingly difficult to evade past statements.
The possible costs of the Democratic candidates' commitment to decriminalization of border crossing are evident in a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Pollconducted July 15-17. It found that all voters oppose decriminalization by better than two to one, 66-27.

Nothing has really change except a specific slice of the electorate. Ask any twitter democrat to be honest and they'll tell you they're more interested in moving as far left as possible than actually giving the electorate what it says it wants. To them, not winning is a small price to pay. That ideology is making the majority of the democratic electorate lump together by default.

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

BowieZ said:
Hmm? If people who knowingly support or oppose "issue A" (whom I would say are policy-aware regarding "issue A") ... are largely unmoved by the thought of Biden, then that is a pool of policy-aware voters Biden isn't exciting (or deterring).

By looking at that graph, the only policy Biden gets a strong reaction from is "deporting illegal immigrants" (very favorable, but not a particularly left-wing issue), and "adopting renewables by 2035" (somewhat unfavorable, which is also not very left-wing)... (and to a lesser extent, the same applies to "abolishing ICE").

The other two that the researcher conjured up are not issues or policy.

That is not how the chart works... they are not "favorables" within Biden voters.
I.e.
People who support or prioritise abortion rights are 4 percentage points more likely to support Warren than people who do not support or prioritise abortion rights.
This does not make the latter group not "policy-aware".

Steel · Sep 7, 2019

What the poll does say:
Biden voters are most likely to be anti-immigration, anti-immigrant to some extent, sexist to some extent (though equally likely to be so regardless of gender), have racial resentment

Sanders voters are most likely to be anti-abortion, most popular with sexist men, less popular with sexist women, support the brand name medicare for all, and support $15 minimum wage.

Warren voters are most likely to be pro 100% renewable, pro increasing taxes on the rich.

If anything it shows that Sander's voters don't necessarily agree with all his policies while Warren voters are most likely to agree with hers.

captive · Sep 7, 2019

So basically Biden is the democratic Trump?

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

Steel said:
What the poll does say:
Biden voters are most likely to be anti-immigration, anti-immigrant to some extent, sexist to some extent (though equally likely to be so regardless of gender), have racial resentment

Sanders voters are most likely to be anti-abortion, most popular with sexist men, less popular with sexist women, support the brand name medicare for all, and support $15 minimum wage.

Warren voters are most likely to be pro 100% renewable, pro increasing taxes on the rich.

If anything it shows that Sander's voters don't necessarily agree with all his policies while Warren voters are most likely to agree with hers.

It's more the flip of that. It's probably a little more nuanced than that as well.

I.e. Biden's share of vote in the most racist group is 27% higher than that in the least racist group.
Sanders share of vote in the most sexist men is 19% higher than in the least sexist men.

Or it's compared to a reference group, so for Black it's White, for the age groups its vs 65+.

Zelas · Sep 7, 2019

Steel said:
While this is true (owing to the fact that pretty much all black voters have no choice but to vote democrat because of republicans), Biden would not be where he is with anyone if he wasn't Obama's VP.

If Obama was off the table then he'd still likely be the top moderate option and thus leading the polls because he is more aligned with the electorate relative to the field and is more well known. He was liked before 2008 and part of why Obama picked him was because of his strengths with the type of voters that are carrying him now, in the states that matter now. "Because Obama" is lazy and an insult to minorities.

captive said:
So basically Biden is the democratic Trump?

Smh. Thread has already run its course it seems

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

Zelas said:
If Obama was off the table then he'd still likely be the top moderate option and thus leading the polls because he is more aligned with the electorate relative to the field and is more well known. He was liked before 2008 and part of why Obama picked him was because of his strengths with the type of voters that are carrying him now, in the states that matter now. "Because Obama" is lazy and an insult to minorities.

If he hadn't been Obama's VP he'd just be a really old and/or retired Senator... :/

OtherWorldly · Sep 7, 2019

Rei no Otaku said:
I guess that's why I don't get it. I'm black and I cannot see why anyone would vote for Biden in the primary. I'm from New England though, and my family isn't religious at all.

you are on this forum that's why you don't get it. This is prime progressive liberal space. From everything I have read most black voters like most Hispanic voters are moderates. Same is the case with South Asians and south East Asians

captive · Sep 7, 2019

Zelas said:
Smh. Thread has already run its course it seems

what?
He says stupid shit, repeatedly.
He can't seem to remember details.
Actual policies aren't that important to him
Racists like him
Regular democrats like him

Other than all the crimes he seems to be slightly more coherent Democrat Trump.

Zelas · Sep 7, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
If he hadn't been Obama's VP he'd just be a really old and/or retired Senator... :/

I'll consider that a flaw when the majority of the general electorate votes as if that's a flaw.

captive said:
what?
He says stupid shit, repeatedly.
He can't seem to remember details.
Actual policies aren't that important to him
Racists like him
Regular democrats like him

Other than all the crimes he seems to be slightly more coherent Democrat Trump.

Bernie has more similarities to Trump that aren't as subjective as your list. Besides, summing up any democrat as just another Trump is extremely ignorant. Policy differences are a pretty big deal.

Commedieu · Sep 7, 2019

Im a poc. Biden played the hell out of that saxophone on aresenio the other night.

Hes got my vote.

Gaf Zombie · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
Because Obama right? Why else do they prefer him given that Warren and Sanders have better healthcare, economic and prison reform policies?

1) Voters, regardless of any demo, don't typically don't pick by a checklist of issues with a formula that gives them a top candidate. There's a mix of the issues, charisma, practicality, etc. etc. Which brings us to point number

2) Numbers dictate that black people have to consider what they want as well as what the average white voter wants. And the "average white voter" is at least comfortable with racism and sexism and is deathly afraid of a quickly changing country. The average black voter is less willing to take chances because she has more chips on the table than her white compatriot. Blacks didn't fully get behind Obama until he after he won the IA and NH primaries and they knew he could win the white vote.

So no, not just "because Obama right?"

Braaier · Sep 7, 2019

We're getting Biden, aren't we?

SurrenderDorothy · Sep 7, 2019

Braaier said:
We're getting Biden, aren't we?

Yep, it wouldn't be hellworld otherwise.

captive said:
So basically Biden is the democratic Trump?

Pretty much.

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

Some other interesting tidbits.
People who identify as "Strong Democrats" are 11% less likely to vote for Sanders.
Gender has very little impact on any of the candidates, but women are marginally more likely to vote for Biden than men.
People with incomes between $40-80K are 7% less likely to vote for Sanders than people below $40K; people with incomes above $80K are 11% less likely than people below $40K.
Age has basically no effect on Warren's support.

Zelas said:
I'll consider that a flaw when the majority of the general electorate votes as if that's a flaw.

I don't really know what relevance that has. The person you responded to was noting that Joe Biden is in his current position because he was chosen to serve as Barack Obama's VP. We don't have a multiversal time machine, but that seems entirely probable.

I think there are multiple reasons why black voters thus far are coalescing around Biden, part of that is an association with Obama, who is incredibly popular.

But all of it is because he was chosen to be Obama's VP, and in the hypothetical universe where Barack Obama had picked Tim Kaine like he wanted to, Joe Biden would not be the frontrunner for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

Steel · Sep 7, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
It's more the flip of that. It's probably a little more nuanced than that as well.

I.e. Biden's share of vote in the most racist group is 27% higher than that in the least racist group.
Sanders share of vote in the most sexist men is 19% higher than in the least sexist men.

Or it's compared to a reference group, so for Black it's White, for the age groups its vs 65+.

Yeah, I guess it is a flip, but with the flip you can get the implication (e.g. if pro abortion rights people are less likely to vote for you, but you have a reasonable standing in the polls, it stands to reason people who are not pro abortion rights are supporting you to fill the gap).

Zelas said:
If Obama was off the table then he'd still likely be the top moderate option and thus leading the polls because he is more aligned with the electorate relative to the field and is more well known. He was liked before 2008 and part of why Obama picked him was because of his strengths with the type of voters that are carrying him now, in the states that matter now. "Because Obama" is lazy and an insult to minorities.

Because Obama is the reason why he's of any note at all now for every demographic. It's not like we don't have reference for this. He's run before without making a blip when he wasn't slowing down from old age.

anamika · Sep 7, 2019

Gaf Zombie said:
And the "average white voter" is at least comfortable with racism and sexism and is deathly afraid of a quickly changing country.

Well there is Sanders who also seems to attract the white voter comfortable with racism and sexism. Sanders seems to attract poor, rural, white voters who are affected by Trumps economic policies but are also racist and sexist.

Gaf Zombie said:
There's a mix of the issues, charisma, practicality, etc. etc.

Biden is charismatic? He sounds like a forgetful grandpa.

Voting for the safe candidate is what happened with Hillary Clinton and I guess that's why the social democrats will never win in the US because dems keep going for what they think are safe candidates.

Deleted member 18360 · Sep 7, 2019

Every time I check in with the democratic primaries Biden has either publicly crapped his pants or is falling into some kind of subtler unforced error. If he wins it will be so baffling because it will basically be despite anything he's done in campaigning.

UltimateHigh · Sep 7, 2019

Zelas said:
If Obama was off the table then he'd still likely be the top moderate option and thus leading the polls because he is more aligned with the electorate relative to the field and is more well known. He was liked before 2008 and part of why Obama picked him was because of his strengths with the type of voters that are carrying him now, in the states that matter now. "Because Obama" is lazy and an insult to minorities.

Smh. Thread has already run its course it seems

He was a weak as hell candidate before obama, who couldn't find traction, and nothings changed other than that association which immediately gave him a huge foot hold.

to deny that, is to deny reality. imagine the 2019 version of biden, the gaffe machine, running without those obama years to prop him up... Yeah, he's getting stomped.

I doubt he would even run at this age if he wasn't a popular VP.

TheMango55 · Sep 7, 2019

ianpm31 said:
I live in the south and it still doesn't quite make sense to me but fair enough.

Think of it this way, there are a great many black people who would be republicans if the republican party didn't overtly discriminate against black people.

Religious people, business owners, people with high income jobs, etc. They likely support moderate or conservative positions but have to support democrats because republicans hate them.

captive · Sep 7, 2019

Zelas said:
Bernie has more similarities to Trump that aren't as subjective as your list. Besides, summing up any democrat as just another Trump is extremely ignorant. Policy differences are a pretty big deal.

If you had bothered to read and comprehend, I didn't say he was another Trump. I said he was the democratic Trump. EG democratic policies instead of republican ones.

And no Bernie is nothing like either of them. Bernie still seems pretty sharp of mind, inst prone to saying incoherent shit and has actual policies he's laid out.

Zombegoast · Sep 7, 2019

It's Obama.

Biden weren't popular at all in his first two attempts.

shintoki · Sep 7, 2019

Shocked that the more sexist and racist voters prefer Joe. Absolutely shocked. Joe was always going to pick up the "Centralist" voters as well. He's Target to Trump's Wal Mart.

Invisible Cities · Sep 7, 2019

It's 2019 and we're still learning that black voters are relatively conservative.

anamika · Sep 7, 2019

Is it possible that in the future the democratic party in the US could split into the liberal democrats (party of Biden, Clinton etc. ) and a more left/socialist version? Like Labor and the Lib dems in the UK? Is that at all likely? Or will the US always be a two party system?

UltimateHigh · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
Is it possible that in the future the democratic party in the US could split into the liberal democrats (party of Biden, Clinton etc. ) and a more left/socialist version? Like Labor and the Lib dems in the UK? Is that at all likely? Or will the US always be a two party system?

that would be one way to cede any and all power to republicans from here on out.

it's a two party system.

shinra-bansho · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
So why not go for Sanders who also seems to attract the white voter comfortable with racism and sexism? But also brings the advantage of bringing in some reforms. Sanders seems to attract poor, rural, white voters who are affected by Trumps economic policies but are also racist and sexist.

Racial resentment seems to have no effect on Sanders vote share.
In terms of prejudicial views, it's really only hostile sexism, and specifically, hostile sexism in men.

Gaf Zombie · Sep 7, 2019

anamika said:
So why not go for Sanders who also seems to attract the white voter comfortable with racism and sexism? But also brings the advantage of bringing in some reforms. Sanders seems to attract poor, rural, white voters who are affected by Trumps economic policies but are also racist and sexist.

Sanders, rightly or wrongly, is seen as a less safe vote than Biden. It is true that they both are established white males with a foot in the grave. But one is a moderate from the Midwest and the other likes to call himself a socialist.

anamika said:
Biden is charismatic? He sounds like a forgetful grandpa.

Yeah people consider him charismatic, he built a political career off of it. Don't let ERA get you turned around. But that wasn't my point.

The point is that voters don't have issues they care about next to assigned values and then tally up a winner. It's a mix of the objective and subjective.

anamika said:
Voting for the safe candidate is what happened with Hillary Clinton and I guess that's why the social democrats will never win in the US because dems keep going for what they think are safe candidates.

I don't disagree that the "safe" choice isn't as safe as it appears. It's an issue that the Democratic party will have to figure out.

Freakzilla · Sep 7, 2019

If we don't win the Senate, keep the house, and have sanders/Warren win we are fucked.

Spirit of Jazz · Sep 7, 2019

Gaf Zombie said:
2) Numbers dictate that black people have to consider what they want as well as what the average white voter wants. And the "average white voter" is at least comfortable with racism and sexism and is deathly afraid of a quickly changing country. The average black voter is less willing to take chances because she has more chips on the table than her white compatriot. Blacks didn't fully get behind Obama until he after he won the IA and NH primaries and they knew he could win the white vote.

Are there actual studies into the black voters being less willing to take chances element of this? If you've got more chips on the table surely voting for the candidates who are going to do more for your communities without the history of horrific racism is your best bet. Voting for a status quo that's harmed your people since it was instate doesn't seem like a safe bet. At the same time poverty and low standards of education resulting in people scapegoating the other and producing conservative voters is pretty much a world wide concept right now, which is supported by the anti-immigration policy being the one Biden policy people prefer here.

How Joe Biden attracts both black voters and racially ‘resentful’ voters

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