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Historically accurate election model predicts Trump re-election.
- Thread starter super-heated plasma
- Start date
stop propogating this bullshit. your vote absolutely matters in red/blue states because there's still congress, senate, state level and local level elections.
just look at how many dem flips happened in 2018 in Texas because the dem turnout was so good.
Yep, Dems are so lost that they don't know if they are far left, central left or right left. It's an awful group of candidates and I don't see any of them beating Trump besides Biden. Warren would get owned, and people are falling for her hard, right into Trump's hands.
Sarah Sanders said as much too. Trump wants Warren and that's a bad sign.
Sarah Sanders said as much too. Trump wants Warren and that's a bad sign.
I agree with this post. Warren will get destroyed worse than Hillary. Dems just dont have the candidate to go up against trump imo. Oh well maybe one day we will get someone like Obama or Bill again but until then i dont see it.
The same thing that happened in '94 and '06 (which was delayed by 9/11.)
She's polling very similarly in trial heats against Trump as Sanders right now. The last Fox News poll actually had her doing a point better - beating Trump by 10 points, the same as Biden.
I was very concerned about Warren's electability when she first announced her run, but honestly, she's doing everything she needs to in quelling my fears. She's only becoming more popular as she becomes better known, and after the Native American DNA test debacle she's avoided any whiff of scandal or baggage.
Maybe Trump pounding on POCAHONTAS all campaign will change that, but I kind of doubt it.
Yeah in the past I think it's fair to say that the success of the economy correlated to election success, but he's a once in a generation shit-house. I don't really believe he's a favorite to win unless there's a big scandal with one of the Dems, or if they can't convince some of the rust belt states that they've been worse off since he took over.
I'm happy people aren't taking it for granted, though.
I'm happy people aren't taking it for granted, though.
This has to be a troll post...like LOL have you looked at any polling data other than Bernie?
Everyone doubting this in this topic needs to go and read the 2016 election thread and watch how the smug attitude at the start becomes despair by the end.
Don't take any chances, just vote.
Don't take any chances, just vote.
Swing voters or centrists who won't vote for her if she's the nom. I don't fucking want a centrist candidate like Biden just because people think we need a centrist to beat Trump. If this country can elect a far right candidate then we can elect a leftist candidate too.
I don't get it. He lost the popular vote, and since becoming president, his approval ratings are in the dumps, the Dems took the house, and he has been steeped in corruption even some Republicans have called him out on.
What reason is there to believe he'd do better than the last election?
I feel like the myth that the Mueller report or the impeachment proceedings somehow help him to be frankly asinine.
What reason is there to believe he'd do better than the last election?
I feel like the myth that the Mueller report or the impeachment proceedings somehow help him to be frankly asinine.
I'm not shocked at this projection. If he isn't removed from office before the election he has a pretty good shot. Red states aren't going to turn on him and blue states are blue. It will come down to MI, WI, OH, and PA again and I don't trust it. Especially when he will be talking up how "good" the economy is going.
I see it happening. But that's cause I have no hope left for this country.
Best way to make it not true is to go out and vote tho!
Best way to make it not true is to go out and vote tho!
Presidential elections aren't won by popular vote. That's why. Red states aren't going to turn on him because they'd prefer to have a conservative in power over a democrat even if his approval is down. It's going to come down to the rust belt again. Personally, I do not trust it. I think he'll ever so slightly edge whoever out.
I wonder what motivation a company like Moody's would have to say that Trump will win re-election.
One would imagine this administration has been good for their profit margins.
One would imagine this administration has been good for their profit margins.
I don't think so. He'll just talk about Bernie's health when the debates come around. He'll pound that into everyone's brain.
I think people are just keeping reality in check. If the election was won by popular vote, we'd all be popping champagne right now.
the smug was off the charts and seemingly no one learned anything.
I can tell just be reading Era that Trump will get a second term. There is no unity in the left.
Being defeatist is not "keeping reality in check". We're looking at a President who can barely stay above 40% approval with a "good" economy. If he is some unbeatable behemoth, then everyone who is to the left of the Nazis might as well pack it in, because you'll be looking at a permanent Fascist state.
That said, I wouldn't be shocked if he wins again.
Donald Trump LOST the popular vote in 2016.
Do you think he has ADDED to his base? That his actions over the past terms has strengthened his platform? That his rhetoric has SPREAD to a wider audience in a historically consistently record low approval rating?
The only way they win is by discouraged Democrat votes. For 19104958th time, this election isnt about changing minds, it's about energizing.
We have the numbers. This isnt rocket science.
Do you think he has ADDED to his base? That his actions over the past terms has strengthened his platform? That his rhetoric has SPREAD to a wider audience in a historically consistently record low approval rating?
The only way they win is by discouraged Democrat votes. For 19104958th time, this election isnt about changing minds, it's about energizing.
We have the numbers. This isnt rocket science.
He better not fucking win again.
THERE IS SO MUCH FUCKING SHIT HE"S IN WHY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR HIM
THERE IS SO MUCH FUCKING SHIT HE"S IN WHY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR HIM
Bernie getting trump elected has been talked about and debunked to death. I can't believe people still say this crap.
Nah, he's done. There's no precedent, so by definition a prediction model will have very limited data to work here. Even his own base seem to lose faith in him more every day. I doubt he can reach that 2016 levels of approval again.
The question now is what kind of change will Americans choose for. Will they choose a situation of status quo (Biden), a politican revolution (Bernie), or something in between (Warren).
The question now is what kind of change will Americans choose for. Will they choose a situation of status quo (Biden), a politican revolution (Bernie), or something in between (Warren).
Incumbents do have an advantage, in my lifetime they've only not wone twice - Carter and Bush 1st. We dont really dont have a get the country excited type candidate, not that it should matter but unfortunatly it does. Add on top Trump will by next election have been impeached but saved by the Senate which will further give him a boost. Its depressing.
According to the article this model was wrong about the 2016 election so here's hoping for 2 in a row.
Based on my experience, Gen X tends to lean a bit more conservative, having come of age during the Reagan Revolution. Then, for a long time, the boomer-era Clinton machine dominated the Dem party, hence why Obama has been the only major Xer in the party. Plus, Gen X is overall a much smaller demo than the boomers or millennials, so the field of potential candidates on either side will be smaller.