For the sake of argument.....The default price of Game Pass Ultimate is $14.99 a month, and three month cards retail at $44.99. There are, as you say, frequent sales. I'm not that inclined to include them in this calcultaion though because they are time limited deals that will not last. It would be irresponsible to tell a friend that you can get Game Pass Ultimate for a year for $60 if that deal disappeared a year later. It's worth mentioning, absolutely, but it's not the long term scenario. The problem with all the "Game Pass is cheaper than X games" stuff, is that it doesn't matter if you actually want to play those X games. If FIFA and Call of Duty are what you are into, you are very unlikely to forgo that for however many games offered via Game Pass or PlayStation Plus.
Obviously it would be wrong of me not to also mention the Xbox Series S + Xbox Live Gold option, which might suit a lot of more casual gamers. But I think the PS5 Digital + PlayStation Plus is the better option.
$399 + $60/year vs $299 + $180/year. For a significantly stronger machine with significantly more storage. I also don't think one can ignore that PS5 + PlayStation Plus is also a good value for money offering, especially for someone who doesn't necessarily play that many games. It offers great value for money at $60/y and Game Pass Ultimate offers great value for money at $180/y. The idea that one of these things is a 'better' deal is a fallacy, and that's all I'm trying to say in this thread. It is hugely dependent on the gamer in question. All three options are going to suit different people. Casual gamers are as varied as hardcore gamers. There are other issues at play. Digital consoles are expensive long term. Not all casuals actually will be satisfied with a less powerful console. Just because they play fewer games doesn't mean they don't have a great TV and want their eyes to melt.
You're making a lot of assumptions about this casual gamer at that point. As I said in the other reply, casual gamers are as varied as hardcore gamers. I'm extremely sceptical of the people in this thread trying to argue that any of these consoles is way ahead of the others. All clearly have a massive amount to offer to gamers right across the gamut. If a casual gamer asks my recommendation I'm not going to tell them to buy an Xbox, I'm going to ask them what they're interested in playing.
Your scenario: gamepass sales go away and the gold transfer is stopped.
it's still worth full price. But the gold transfer and sales do exist.