GI.biz: Over 10% of developers are making games for the next generation

[nib95]

As expected we are heading toward a significant cross-gen period which will probably last 2-3 years.

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Very doubtful. My guess is the cross-gen period for the majority of tentpole releases lasts 1-2 years max, same as most gens. Typically next gen console software adoption or transitions are very swift and dramatic.

Hell, the PS4/Xbox One launched in Nov 2013, and we had Assassin's Creed Unity in 2014, Battlefront and Witcher 3 in 2015 etc. And that's not counting titles like Forza 5, Ryse, Killer Instinct, Killzone Shadow Fall, InFamous Second Son, DRIVECLUB, Knack etc. All of these were next gen only titles.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Very doubtful. My guess is the cross-gen period for the majority of tentpole releases lasts 1-2 years max, same as most gens. Typically next gen console software adoption or transitions are very swift and dramatic.

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Yeah the cross-gen period will probably last until Holiday 2022 for the majority of AAA games but will probably last even longer for AA and indie games.

 

[Deleted member 56752]

So like 3 developers? There's not many. Honestly.

 

[Kevinception]

As stated where?

Or you mean because it's coming to PC too? Because you're probably going to have to get used to that.

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Im totally used to that...I don't own an Xbox nor a PlayStation :P

But that was my point, get used to it. 3rd party publishers will not be making games exclusive to the Xbox nor the PlayStation. I was responding to a poster to not expect any devs to focus solely on the Ps5

 

[nib95]

Yeah the cross-gen period will probably last until Holiday 2022 for the majority of AAA games but will probably last even longer for AA and indie games.

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I expect next gen system only multiplatform titles in the first year of the system launches, and multiple big next gen only titles by year two. Same as past gens.

 

[Oregano]

Absolutely. Having it on PC as well makes it multiplatform, not exclusive.

Ive learned watching the Xbox hullabaloo...people lamenting there is no need to buy Xboxes anymore cause all their games end up on PC...that "console exclusive" doesn't really count for much. In terms of exclusivity when it comes to consoles.

But even beyond that, with Gamepass and cross play between pc and Xbox, and having two price point next gen xboxes...I don't see why any 3rd party publisher would just make a PC/playstation version of their game next gen. If we are talking about Japanese publishers who don't think their games sell enough on Xbox, they will at least target Switch

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Even that's not true though, a significant amount of Japanese games don't target Switch. Even when talking about major publishers there's examples like Judgment and Shin Sakura Wars which are both PS4 exclusive for now.

 

[Kevinception]

Very doubtful. My guess is the cross-gen period for the majority of tentpole releases lasts 1-2 years max, same as most gens. Typically next gen console software adoption or transitions are very swift and dramatic.

Hell, the PS4/Xbox One launched in Nov 2013, and we had Assassin's Creed Unity in 2014, Battlefront and Witcher 3 in 2015 etc. And that's not counting titles like Forza 5, Ryse, Killer Instinct, Killzone Shadow Fall, InFamous Second Son, DRIVECLUB, Knack etc. All of these were next gen only
titles.

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I guess this goes with my previous posts...but does the reductionist view of "cross-gen" really matter much now?

You have devs targeting Series S and lower end PC configs and Gamepass and 1080p Stadia gaming etc...so is it that much difference than whether or not they target ps4 pro and Xbox One X?

 

[Lelouch0612]

I expect next gen system only multiplatform titles in the first year of the system launches, and multiple big next gen only titles by year two. Same as past gens.

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Big yearly sports games and CoD will be cross-gen until at least Holidays 2022 (probably even beyond for sports games). As usual, JP publishers will have a long cross-gen period (and the Switch even adds to their inertia), Capcom could be the quickest to transition tho.

Then you have big AAA Western 3rd parties and yeah I am expecting a new next gen AC by 2022. New licenses too but still big cross-gen releases like Diablo IV for example (which is only confirmed for PS4/XB1 for now), Overwatch 2, the new Rocksteady game, maybe a LotR game too.

Problem is that most of these big publishers have a reduced output compared to previous generations. Acti has CoD and Crash/Spyro, meaning that they'll stay cross-gen for at least 2 years. WB had a lot of canned projects this gen and it is still uncertain whether their games in developpement will ditch PS4/XB1. Bethesda's Starfield or ES6 won't be ready before Holiday 2022. Ubi has an Avatar game and BGE2 which could be their first big next gen games with AC. Tons of things are changing there currently, which might delay unrevealed games...

My vision is basically this :

Holiday 2020 : big majority of cross-gen titles, a few exclusives at launch like Godfall
Holiday 2021 : majority of cross-gen titles, several next gen exclusives (like AC)
Holiday 2022 : majority of next gen only titles, several cross-gen games (like sports games and CoD).

Talking about AAA games here.

 

[Deleted member 17184]

Yeah there should be a solution to all of this but again they are singling out steam while not speaking against PS and Xbox Digital store.. hell these developers port their games onto google play and the iStore. These stores all take 30%.. idc if they're console/phone makers, if a developer think that these stores take more than they deserve or they think that they get more than they deserve than speak out against all of them. If you really want to change this then change the industry standard and have them bring a new model thats developer friendly.

Point is its either all stores changing their cuts to developer friendly models or not one of them doing it. Epic cannot sustain this sort of cut for years and years because they're spending too much cash on paying to delay steam releases and doing those backroom deals to get weekly free games while not enhancing the customer experience and making it a competent digital platform at the very least. Epic's current model isn't sustainable and btw steam's cut goes down as long as a game keeps selling a lot, there's an article somewhere explaining how exactly the changes made in steam's revenue cut work.

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Why is it all or nothing? You know developers aren't unionized. They're being vocal against Steam since they can go to other stores on PC. But it's not like they can do that on consoles, or afford to not sell there. Same goes for Google Play and the App Store. They don't have a lot of power to negotiate - especially the smaller ones. This isn't some blind hate against Steam. If devs had chance to earn more on consoles, they'd go for that.

 

[nib95]

Big yearly sports games and CoD will be cross-gen until at least Holidays 2022 (probably even beyond for sports games). As usual, JP publishers will have a long cross-gen period (and the Switch even adds to their inertia), Capcom could be the quickest to transition tho.

Then you have big AAA Western 3rd parties and yeah I am expecting a new next gen AC by 2022. New licenses too but still big cross-gen releases like Diablo IV for example (which is only confirmed for PS4/XB1 for now), Overwatch 2, the new Rocksteady game, maybe a LotR game too.

Problem is that most of these big publishers have a reduced output compared to previous generations. Acti has CoD and Crash/Spyro, meaning that they'll stay cross-gen for at least 2 years. WB had a lot of canned projects this gen and it is still uncertain whether their games in developpement will ditch PS4/XB1. Bethesda's Starfield or ES6 won't be ready before Holiday 2022. Ubi has an Avatar game and BGE2 which could be their first big next gen games with AC. Tons of things are changing there currently, which might delay unrevealed games...

My vision is basically this :

Holiday 2020 : big majority of cross-gen titles, a few exclusives at launch like Godfall
Holiday 2021 : majority of cross-gen titles, several next gen exclusives (like AC)
Holiday 2022 : majority of next gen only titles, several cross-gen games (like sports games and CoD).

Talking about AAA games here.

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Yea, I think the bolded is probably the most likely scenario to how things play out.

Regarding sports games, I don't know if the same thing will happen next gen, but at the start of this gen, next gen versions of titles like Fifa and NBA 2K were actually made on entirely different engines to the last gen versions, complete with entirely different visuals. The past gen versions weren't actually traditional scaled down ports.

 

[Swift_Gamer]

From a Dev perspective I would assume "interesting" has to do with tech and not just a popularity contest.

but maybe Devs are fanboys like us as well. Lol

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Not actually, it's about which console will sell more copies of their games and they believe it'll be the PS5.

 

[DigSCCP]

Funny mathematics logics in this thread.

 

[Deleted member 11626]

No. It'll be a while before you get exclusive next gen games from Xbox Game Studios. Sony will have exclusive next gen games. Just like the past couple generations. Who knew?

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The constant shitposting in Microsoft threads about how they're going to hold back third party development is false, and that's largely because they want to mitigate risk by developing for the maximum amount of customers possible. The information presented clearly supports that. That's the whole point of my post. Take the Sony Pony stuff elsewhere

 

[AshenOne]

Why is it all or nothing? You know developers aren't unionized. They're being vocal against Steam since they can go to other stores on PC. But it's not like they can do that on consoles, or afford to not sell there. Same goes for Google Play and the App Store. They don't have a lot of power to negotiate - especially the smaller ones. This isn't some blind hate against Steam. If devs had chance to earn more on consoles, they'd go for that.

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Well then they need to unionize or do some collective thing about it. Iam not saying they're blindly hating on steam but their reasons for asking for a lower cut only on steam aren't justified for the reasons they give like just is just a launcher and they do barely anything and get that 30% cut, etc. They DO do stuff for which they deserve the cut but the issue for developers is that the 30% cut itself seems high for them for whatever reason there may be... This seems more like an industry problem if you ask me and its not gonna change quickly or easily until they do some shit about it themselves. All the bystanders like us can do is vote with our wallets or donate to them.

 

[nib95]

The constant shitposting in Microsoft threads about how they're going to hold back third party development is false, and that's largely because they want to mitigate risk by developing for the maximum amount of customers possible. The information presented clearly supports that. That's the whole point of my post. Take the Sony Pony stuff elsewhere

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I guess it would depend on whether Microsoft had any sort of mandate or put any sort of pressure on third party developers to continue to support the Xbox One when they ordinarily may not have. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all pans out, but it's entirely possible that third party publishers adopt next gen only titles with tentpole titles, faster than Microsoft does with its own first party games.

 

[Dalik]

Why is it all or nothing? You know developers aren't unionized. They're being vocal against Steam since they can go to other stores on PC. But it's not like they can do that on consoles, or afford to not sell there. Same goes for Google Play and the App Store. They don't have a lot of power to negotiate - especially the smaller ones. This isn't some blind hate against Steam. If devs had chance to earn more on consoles, they'd go for that.

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When devs stop caring about their customers and do stuff like this so they can get their fat epic check, its hard to care.

 

[defaltoption]

Those number seem a little low when next gen launches this year, maybe because of BC being so big this gen. Also love seeing those pc numbers.

 

[Detective Pidgey]

From a Dev perspective I would assume "interesting" has to do with tech and not just a popularity contest.

but maybe Devs are fanboys like us as well. Lol

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Unless PS5 has something drastically different than XSX I kinda doubt it.

Aren't there some rumors of SSD tech being different?

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To my knowledge only Sony claiming some vague things about their SSD, nothing much yet. But I could be wrong.

 

[Deleted member 35987]

Looks to me like it's an ideal time for PC gaming, by the end of the upcoming gen, I suspect any game made will be on PC.

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This is my hope.

 

[Deleted member 11626]

I guess it would depend on whether Microsoft had any sort of mandate or put any sort of pressure on third party developers to continue to support the Xbox One when they ordinarily may not have. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all pans out, but it's entirely possible that third party publishers adopt next gen only titles with tentpole titles, faster than Microsoft does with its own first party games.

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That's something that I think is reasonable, at least until they get Xcloud off the ground and running on old consoles. They're viability as a gaming entity relies on getting as much software in as many hands as possible, and I think they'd gladly take the hit on hardware if it meant more subscribers for their services. It's the main reason why I'll grab a PS5 (if I do get a next gen console) for the kids before I consider a Series X, but I'll still be a GPU subscriber for my PC and the One X I have sitting around.

 

[Deleted member 18161]

I don't get the focus on cross gen. We did cross gen for this gen but core ended up moving into next gen super quick so the last gen cross gen games ended up selling a lot worse than the current gen versions. Why do that again?

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I've been thinking the same thing. Cyberpunk would have sold gangbusters as a next gen exclusive game because there will be 10 million hardcore PS5 and XSeX owners hungry for new games very quickly. Most of those players are the ones that would buy that sort of game on day one for PS4/XB1 anyway.

I totally get keeping the likes of COD, Madden, WWE, FIFA, Just Dance and Assassin's Creed cross gen for a year or two though because of the casual market.

 

[Cactuar]

The constant shitposting in Microsoft threads about how they're going to hold back third party development is false, and that's largely because they want to mitigate risk by developing for the maximum amount of customers possible. The information presented clearly supports that. That's the whole point of my post. Take the Sony Pony stuff elsewhere

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What the hell does any of this have to do with my post? Is making statements of facts called Sony Pony now?

 

[HStallion]

Are people surprised about the cross gen thing? This is not a new phenomenon. I expect cross gen titles for the first till 2022

 

[Deleted member 11626]

What the hell does any of this have to do with my post? Is making statements of facts called Sony Pony now?

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I was talking about the falsehood that Microsoft will hold back third party development. You decided Sony needed to be brought up. Not me.

 

[packy17]

No, hence most developers think it's fair for them to charge 15%

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How does this logic work? You're arguing that because Valve doesn't sell its own PC hardware, they deserve less of a cut for their store?....

It's not like consoles are *free*. Sony/MS/Nintendo make money when they sell them.

Like, 30 seconds of thought puts most of this stuff to bed.

 

[Cactuar]

I was talking about the falsehood that Microsoft will hold back third party development. You decided Sony needed to be brought up. Not me.

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Well I never said Microsoft's strategy will hold back third party development, I don't think their strategy of no exclusives makes one bit of difference to third parties. But even if you take Sony out of the equation, you are wrong about this statement:

and that it'll be a while before we get exclusive next gen games. Just like the past couple of generations. Who knew?

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It's not the past couple generations for Microsoft (or anyone) because the 360 had exclusive Microsoft developed launch titles (Kameo: Elements of Powe) and so did the Xbox One (Killer Instinct).

So this is not "like the past couple of generations," it's an entirely different approach.

 

[Deleted member 17184]

When devs stop caring about their customers and do stuff like this so they can get their fat epic check, its hard to care.

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Don't quote me on that because I don't know much about it, but aren't some technologies difficult to implement on games for Linux and Mac? I wouldn't go as far as to say they stop caring about consumers, if that were the case. Especially since Rocket League is still a Steam game. It's not like devs want to lose customers when they make the decision to stop supporting a platform.

 

[Dalik]

Don't quote me on that because I don't know much about it, but aren't some technologies difficult to implement on games for Linux and Mac? I wouldn't go as far as to say they stop caring about consumers, if that were the case. Especially since Rocket League is still a Steam game. It's not like devs want to lose customers when they make the decision to stop supporting a platform.

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They stopped the support cause epic bought them.

 

[Deleted member 17184]

They stopped the support cause epic bought them.

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Do we know for sure that it's the reason they stopped supporting? Because yeah, if it is, it's definitely not cool. But if the new technologies are definitely not currently supported on Mac and Linux, then it sucks but understandable.

 

[BradGrenz]

When devs stop caring about their customers and do stuff like this so they can get their fat epic check, its hard to care.

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Who needs a native linux version when good guy Steam are making all Windows games run through Proton with their 30%?

 

[Dphex]

real next gen starts 2022

 

[MysticGon]

I like the increase in support for Switch. Nearly 1 in 5 polled have projects planned.

Surprised PS5 has more planned support than Series X.

Glad unionization has industry support.