GI.Biz Opinion Piece - Crackdown 3 Shows a Vision of the Future

[DriftingSpirit]

The new Xbox title points toward the radical changes that Game Pass will bring to the industry's commercial and cultural landscape​

After years of industry discussions about what the possibility of Netflix-style subscription services could mean for games, Microsoft has gone ahead and taken the logical leap -- not just treating a subscription service as a long-tail opportunity to build a secondary revenue stream for games that have already had their day at retail, but as an entirely alternative delivery mechanism for games that would ordinarily have cost $60 up front.

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This has happened in part because of the accessibility of content; because streaming has opened up vast libraries for consumers to peruse even as platforms like YouTube have given opportunities for new critical voices to come to the fore. More importantly, though, it's happened because old benchmarks have lost their meaning. Look at Crackdown 3; what do the sales figures for that game mean? Pretty much nothing. The core Xbox audience can mostly play it for free, after all. What do the Game Pass statistics mean? Well, there's some meaning in there, but not in the kind of headline numbers Microsoft will reveal; there's no equation to translate a certain number of people buying a game for free back into the old currency of actual sales.

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It may be some time before games follow that pattern, but there's a certain inevitability about them doing so. As distribution diversity makes sales numbers damned-near irrelevant, critical acclaim for output (especially from platform holders) will be enormously important. We can already see that happening to some extent; Sony's first-party output on PlayStation 4 has on occasion come very close to being a play for critical acclaim, though it hasn't lost sight of good commercial sense along the way (neither, of course, did Netflix, Amazon or Hulu).

Once the time comes -- and it will come within the next few years -- when games on the scale of Spider-Man, Horizon: Zero Dawn or The Last Of Us are being launched on a subscription services rather than at retail, we will see a transition in that consumer-creator-critic relationship that will arguably dwarf any of the changes that have happened in the industry in recent decades. That future is closer than many may think; consumers are ready right now, and platform holders are gearing up.

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The question, of course, is where it leaves publishers and major developers. Is the industry ready for a future where most firms act as production studios for platform holder operated "networks"? And if not, what exactly is their realistic alternative plan?

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Source

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Just some select quotes but I recommend giving it a full read.

Do you all see a possible future where this sort of thing takes over the industry and basically forces companies like Sony and Nintendo to adapt? This would be a long ways off from now but could it throw the traditional structure out of wack?

What y'all think?

 

[Nightengale]

Added GI.Biz to the headline.

 

[Morfid_Plays]

I can only see google doing this correctly

Others are too amateur

 

[mullfuchs]

So, I hate this. I hate not owning my own media.

When I'm checking out a new artist, I listen via Spotify and if I really like them, I'll go to a store and get their CD, ripping the tracks to my computer. That way I have an actual physical copy I can throw in my car, and files that are "mine" as long as I maintain them.

With netflix, it's convenient, but they don't have everything. They got rid of the entire run of Poirot before I could finish it. The studio Ghibli films aren't streamable, so I had to buy the DVDs from a coworker. And you know what, I like being able to watch them that way.

With games, I had my PS plus account lapse and lost access to a bunch of games, which I don't really miss enough to renew. Meanwhile, i can pop in a GBA cart I've own since middle school and it all still works.

For me it's about redundancy, being able to play something without having to sign into a service or connect to the internet. Sometimes you won't have a 4G connection to pull down data.

And it's not just about that, these services can take off content based on publisher whims. What happens when one publisher decides to do their own subscription service and take their games off Xbox Game pass? How many subscription services would you need for total coverage?

Really, we're hurtling towards a future where we rent everything in perpetuity. Media not on these services will be forgotten about. You won't "own" anything anymore, and if you can't afford to pay the monthly fees, you lose a huge chunk of your entertainment options. We're trusting these companies to curate and maintain our libraries, and they're going to splinter as publishers each want their slice of the pie. I don't trust em

 

[spam musubi]

So, I hate this. I hate not owning my own media.

When I'm checking out a new artist, I listen via Spotify and if I really like them, I'll go to a store and get their CD, ripping the tracks to my computer. That way I have an actual physical copy I can throw in my car, and files that are "mine" as long as I maintain them.

With netflix, it's convenient, but they don't have everything. They got rid of the entire run of Poirot before I could finish it. The studio Ghibli films aren't streamable, so I had to buy the DVDs from a coworker. And you know what, I like being able to watch them that way.

With games, I had my PS plus account lapse and lost access to a bunch of games, which I don't really miss enough to renew. Meanwhile, i can pop in a GBA cart I've own since middle school and it all still works.

For me it's about redundancy, being able to play something without having to sign into a service or connect to the internet. Sometimes you won't have a 4G connection to pull down data.

And it's not just about that, these services can take off content based on publisher whims. What happens when one publisher decides to do their own subscription service and take their games off Xbox Game pass? How many subscription services would you need for total coverage?

Really, we're hurtling towards a future where we rent everything in perpetuity. Media not on these services will be forgotten about. You won't "own" anything anymore, and if you can't afford to pay the monthly fees, you lose a huge chunk of your entertainment options. We're trusting these companies to curate and maintain our libraries, and they're going to splinter as publishers each want their slice of the pie. I don't trust em

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You are in the minority. The public has adapted to this in movies and TV and music, and they'll adapt to it for games too. No one cares to own games because most people don't go back to games years later.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

squidwardfuture.gif

 

[Jom]

So, I hate this. I hate not owning my own media.

When I'm checking out a new artist, I listen via Spotify and if I really like them, I'll go to a store and get their CD, ripping the tracks to my computer. That way I have an actual physical copy I can throw in my car, and files that are "mine" as long as I maintain them.

With netflix, it's convenient, but they don't have everything. They got rid of the entire run of Poirot before I could finish it. The studio Ghibli films aren't streamable, so I had to buy the DVDs from a coworker. And you know what, I like being able to watch them that way.

With games, I had my PS plus account lapse and lost access to a bunch of games, which I don't really miss enough to renew. Meanwhile, i can pop in a GBA cart I've own since middle school and it all still works.

For me it's about redundancy, being able to play something without having to sign into a service or connect to the internet. Sometimes you won't have a 4G connection to pull down data.

And it's not just about that, these services can take off content based on publisher whims. What happens when one publisher decides to do their own subscription service and take their games off Xbox Game pass? How many subscription services would you need for total coverage?

Really, we're hurtling towards a future where we rent everything in perpetuity. Media not on these services will be forgotten about. You won't "own" anything anymore, and if you can't afford to pay the monthly fees, you lose a huge chunk of your entertainment options. We're trusting these companies to curate and maintain our libraries, and they're going to splinter as publishers each want their slice of the pie. I don't trust em

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I totally agree with you, but I also understand we're fast becoming the dinosaurs. All I can hope is that they still continue doing physical copies.

My only solace is that I have so many physical games that even if I have 3 lifetimes I'll never finish playing them all anyway so if things go full digital I'll get to more of my physical library.

 

[FacelessSamurai]

So, I hate this. I hate not owning my own media.

When I'm checking out a new artist, I listen via Spotify and if I really like them, I'll go to a store and get their CD, ripping the tracks to my computer. That way I have an actual physical copy I can throw in my car, and files that are "mine" as long as I maintain them.

With netflix, it's convenient, but they don't have everything. They got rid of the entire run of Poirot before I could finish it. The studio Ghibli films aren't streamable, so I had to buy the DVDs from a coworker. And you know what, I like being able to watch them that way.

With games, I had my PS plus account lapse and lost access to a bunch of games, which I don't really miss enough to renew. Meanwhile, i can pop in a GBA cart I've own since middle school and it all still works.

For me it's about redundancy, being able to play something without having to sign into a service or connect to the internet. Sometimes you won't have a 4G connection to pull down data.

And it's not just about that, these services can take off content based on publisher whims. What happens when one publisher decides to do their own subscription service and take their games off Xbox Game pass? How many subscription services would you need for total coverage?

Really, we're hurtling towards a future where we rent everything in perpetuity. Media not on these services will be forgotten about. You won't "own" anything anymore, and if you can't afford to pay the monthly fees, you lose a huge chunk of your entertainment options. We're trusting these companies to curate and maintain our libraries, and they're going to splinter as publishers each want their slice of the pie. I don't trust em

Click to shrink...

I still buy 4K movies as I like quality, and I'm the only one I know of that still does that. Everyone else is on Netflix and Prime Video.

I have an itunes library and a bunch of CDs (although I don't buy any anymore, but do buy digital occasionally). everyone tells me I should be getting spotify.

It's the way of the future and I can see why. With movies I cared since video quality is indeed affected going digital. Games have no difference when playing a digital version, and on PCs people are already used to it, consoles are getting there, and the future is all digital and subscription based.

 

[dlauv]

Digital ownership and digital preservation is still a thing, even if physical is on its last legs in 50 years.

 

[entremet]

You are in the minority. The public has adapted to this in movies and TV and music, and they'll adapt to it for games too. No one cares to own games because most people don't go back to games years later.

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Yep and like movies, TV, and music, I'm sure there will be traditional ownership options.

 

[jroc74]

Again, why not both.

Movies in theaters still getting record breaking sales, and streaming, downloadable movies are just as big.

Using Crackdown 3 as an example isnt good IMO.

Metro Exodus was way down on the most played list....but sales are good. Wouldnt the best of both worlds be good, great sales and played alot on services?

As far as ownership, I see digital sales continuing to skyrocket. Downloadable games tied to a services is the next step, I agree.

Sales arent irrelevant. You can best believe MS would rather have monster sales and subscribers. If they have to adapt to where sales are irrelevant for them, so be it.

 

[pswii60]

I can only see google doing this correctly

Others are too amateur

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Please can you elaborate on this one - why existing players are amateur, and what is it about Google that makes you suspect they'll be different?

 

[dennett316]

Netflix for games is the way to go. I'd VASTLY prefer physical media, but the general audience have decided that's going to die off. That sucks. If it's going all digital, make that shit cheap, and a monthly subscription service is the best way to do that. Or do the Gog thing where games are DRM free, and you get to download your own backup you can keep on physical media of some kind. Nothing lasts forever, I get that, but it still sucks to see physical media die off.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Gamepass is one of the best things ever to happen to gaming.