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German Federal Elections 2021 - 20th Bundestag

Und nu? What is your prefered outcome?

  • 🟥⬛

    Votes: 3 1.3%

  • 🟥🟩🟨

    Votes: 182 79.5%

  • ⬛🟩🟨

    Votes: 4 1.7%

  • Neuwahlen

    Votes: 13 5.7%

  • Thor: The Dark World

    Votes: 27 11.8%
  • Total voters
    229
Reader mode
Haunted

Haunted

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
2,737
cyba89 said:
It's pretty clear he will stay in his position as long as there are chances for Jamaica happening. Otherwise it wouldn't make sense to hold negotiations with FDP and Greens anymore.
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Yup.

A journalist on Dlf last week was asking why the Union was even getting ready to talk to the other parties when the will of the voters was so clearly against Jamaica. I just thought what a dumb and assumptive question that was. Just imagine the shitstorm if Ampel didn't work out and the Union wasn't ready to talk then. Laschet is the candidate so Laschet will stay on top until a coalition without the union is formed.
 
Carvel

Carvel

Member
Nov 6, 2017
265
Mainz, Germany
Isee said:
He will be stabbed over and over again on the stairs of the Reichstag while leaving the building.
"Auch du, Herbert Reul?"
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Next week:
QK7H5UF.jpg
 
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Sabin

Sabin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,605
Randam said:
FDP said they won't accept new taxes and want to hold on to the Dept-brake.

Jamaika is still very possible.
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Green youth already said they will vote no if a jamaika coalition would be voted on a greeen sonderparteitag and the rest of the green basis is also against it.

The odds of Jamaika happening are close to zero since a basis vote against it would also mean the end of Habeck/Baerbock
 
FliX

FliX

Master of the Reality Stone
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
9,863
Metro Detroit
Sabin said:
Green youth already said they will vote no if a jamaika coalition would be voted on a greeen sonderparteitag and the rest of the green basis is also against it.

The odds of Jamaika happening are close to zero since a basis vote against it would also mean the end of Habeck/Baerbock
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Yea, They would have to offer the Greens the keys to the kingdom to get them to agree to a Jamaika coalition. I cannot see it happening.
 
Kyougar

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,354
FliX said:
Yea, They would have to offer the Greens the keys to the kingdom to get them to agree to a Jamaika coalition. I cannot see it happening.
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Yeah, the only way the greens would vote for Jamaica, is if they get several high-profile ministry positions that are linked to their green identity with water-tight proclamations about making new green laws and Verbote, OR if they can place a green chancellor on the throne.

not happening.
 
Hana-Bi

Hana-Bi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,010
Germany
FDP is still doing their "Alles-oder-nichts" scheme. Man I really hate Lindner. Miss the days they were below 5%. Sadly the youth likes the EGO Partei too, so the years of Stillstand will continue.

It's so fucked up when your stance on the climate crisis is, that there will be some crazy innovations that will solve all problems in time...
 
Gemüsepizza

Gemüsepizza

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,541
I'm not even convinced that Ampel has a real chance. Why would the FDP agree to anything even slightly left to a GroKo? Ampel is literally their worst case scenario (from the ones that are possible right now). I fear they will negotiate for a few weeks, then it will fail, and during that time CDU/CSU will get rid of Laschet and make a few other changes to pave the way for a new GroKo.
 
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Sabin

Sabin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,605
Gemüsepizza said:
I'm not even convinced that Ampel has a real chance. Why would the FDP agree to anything even slightly left to a GroKo? Ampel is literally their worst case scenario (from the ones that are possible right now). I fear they will negotiate for a few weeks, then it will fail, and during that time CDU/CSU will get rid of Laschet and make a few other changes to pave the way for a new GroKo.
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Cause Lindner is also under pressure.

If the FPD refuses to be part of another coalition his days are most likely over too.
 
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,286
Raftina

Raftina

Member
Jun 27, 2020
3,571
Sabin said:
Cause Lindner is also under pressure.

If the FPD refuses to be part of another coalition his days are most likely over too.
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I have some questions about this degree of confidence.

FDP has a list of things they want to happen and a list of things they do not want to happen.
From the lists, what can FDP get from Ampel but not Groko? Being in government is obvious, but surely there is more to what FDP wants than being in government.
From the lists, what can FDP get from GroKo but not Ampel?
When you put this together, does FDP have Ampel or GroKo as its second choice?

Assuming Greens prefer Ampel, Jamaika, GroKo in that order; and FDP prefer Jamaika, Ampel, GroKo. How big is the gap between the second choices and GroKo for Greens and FDP? Who is more likely to blink first if it looks like the President will again persuade SDP and CDU to form GroKo to avoid a minority government or second election?
 
Sabin

Sabin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,605
Raftina said:
I have some questions about this degree of confidence.

FDP has a list of things they want to happen and a list of things they do not want to happen.
From the lists, what can FDP get from Ampel but not Groko? Being in government is obvious, but surely there is more to what FDP wants than being in government.
From the lists, what can FDP get from GroKo but not Ampel?
When you put this together, does FDP have Ampel or GroKo as its second choice?

Assuming Greens prefer Ampel, Jamaika, GroKo in that order; and FDP prefer Jamaika, Ampel, GroKo. How big is the gap between the second choices and GroKo for Greens and FDP? Who is more likely to blink first if it looks like the President will again persuade SDP and CDU to form GroKo to avoid a minority government or second election?
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I'm assuming the scenario that Jamaika is close to impossible to happen since the green youth already said they vote against it no matter what and more than 80% of the green basis is also against it. So it's not a realistic outcome since both Bearbock and Habeck will be gone for sure if they propose a Jamaika coalition.

So Ampel is asides from Groko (urgh) the only realistic option.

Which brings me to the FPD point. If they break off from the Ampel negotiations for whatever reason they be could perceived as a party that doesn't want to take responsibility and could lose tons of voter because of it. Don't forget they walked away from governing in 2017 which gave us another Groko. Folks won't be happy about that and it will most likely cost Lindner his Job as Party lead.
 
1.21Gigawatts

1.21Gigawatts

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,278
Munich
Raftina said:
I have some questions about this degree of confidence.

FDP has a list of things they want to happen and a list of things they do not want to happen.
From the lists, what can FDP get from Ampel but not Groko? Being in government is obvious, but surely there is more to what FDP wants than being in government.
From the lists, what can FDP get from GroKo but not Ampel?
When you put this together, does FDP have Ampel or GroKo as its second choice?

Assuming Greens prefer Ampel, Jamaika, GroKo in that order; and FDP prefer Jamaika, Ampel, GroKo. How big is the gap between the second choices and GroKo for Greens and FDP? Who is more likely to blink first if it looks like the President will again persuade SDP and CDU to form GroKo to avoid a minority government or second election?
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FDP said no to Jamaica last time, I don't see them saying no to Ampel this time around.
That would cause a huge backlash.

No one wants Laschet as Chancellor, so Greens have a good argument saying No to Jamaica, but FDP can't say no to Ampel.
They will prop up their position and act like Jamaica is a real possibility and newspapers will entertain it, but at the end of the day, FDP will have to agree to Ampel.
 
Rory

Rory

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,159
User Warned: Hostility
BlueOdin said:
No, not really
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Oh so you get booze for birthday parties cuz its such a sad event. It makes perfect sense now why you gift wine to friends so they can drown their sadness about your presents in alcohol. and champagne isnt to celebrate a won race, rather people drown their sadness cuz the journey is over. Sorry. my misunderstanding.
 
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Isee

Isee

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,235
Rory said:
Oh so you get booze for birthday parties cuz its such a sad event. It makes perfect sense now why you gift wine to friends so they can drown their sadness about your presents in alcohol. and champagne isnt to celebrate a won race, rather people drown their sadness cuz the journey is over. Sorry. my misunderstanding.
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Yes, that is an inaccurate, one-sided view on alcohol consumption. Plenty of people are consuming alcohol when bad things happen.
 
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Rory

Rory

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,159
Isee said:
Yes, that is an inaccurate, one-sided view on alcohol consumption. Plenty of people are consuming alcohol when bad things happen.
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People who use alcohol as copying mechanism usually have alcohol readily available.

Also alcohol does not really go bad. Beer usually lasts between 3-12 month.
 
Kanhir

Kanhir

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,888
Rory said:
People who use alcohol as copying mechanism usually have alcohol readily available.

Also alcohol does not really go bad. Beer usually lasts between 3-12 month.
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Why are you starting a fight? The intention for the booze was pretty clear in BlueOdin's post.
 
cyba89

cyba89

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,628
Jamaika wolle man keine gänzliche Absage erteilen, sagte Habeck, allerdings stünde der Wunsch nach der Ampel nun im Vordergrund. Es solle nicht parallel mit der Union weiterverhandelt werden. Habeck zeigte sich optimistisch, dass die Ampel gelingen könne: Bei den gemeinsamen Gesprächen mit der FDP habe es »viel Bewegung in Sachen Klimaschutz« gegeben.

Eine Bundesregierung mit drei Parteien hatte es noch nie gegeben, warnte Baerbock, da werde es »knirschen«. Aber gerade deshalb brauche es nun Vertrauen und Verlässlichkeit, auch in dem Sinn, dass nach den Gesprächen »nicht alles in der Zeitung steht«.
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Die FDP trifft sich noch am Vormittag zu einer eigenen Besprechung, um über die bisherigen Einzelsondierungen zu beraten. Um 11 wollen Parteichef Christian Lindner und Generalsekretär Volker Wissing in der FDP-Zentrale in Berlin ein Statement abgeben.
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Grüne wollen Ampelkoalition vorbereiten - Spiegel.de

Statement from Greens: No further talks with CDU/CSU for now (but Jamaika still not dead yet). Ampel will be the focus.
A statement from FDP is expected soon.
 
Sonix

Sonix

Prophet of Regret
Member
Aug 3, 2020
1,965
Watch Lindner fuck it up after talking for months and us getting a GroKo again.
 
Isee

Isee

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,235
And I still expect FDP to sabotage Ampel as much as possible.
Though I also expect Scholz to agree to "schwarze Null" and against tax increase for rich people.
 
Akai

Akai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,045
Statement by Christian Lindner if anyone wants to watch it:



(31:36 if the timestamp doesn't work)

Doesn't really sound convincing to me that Ampel has a chance due to the FDP. Hope I'm wrong, though.
 
Team_Feisar

Team_Feisar

Member
Jan 16, 2018
5,352
Akai said:
Statement by Christian Lindner if anyone wants to watch it:



(31:36 if the timestamp doesn't work)

Doesn't really sound convincing to me that Ampel has a chance due to the FDP. Hope I'm wrong, though.
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Yeah, doesn´t sound like he wants to do Ampel... but of course it makes sense for him to say he prefers Jamaica anyway if he wants to squeeze as much as possible for the FDp out of Ampel talks.
My biggest fear is that the Union somehow manages to replace Laschet with a more liked Candidate and turns the public opinion with the help of the media. If not for the extremely weak Laschet and in turn unstable Union, i´d see the greens giving in to Jamaica before FDP gives in to Ampel.
 

Deleted member 28564

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,604
The different narratives from the different articles/videos is making this ordeal far more confusing than it needs to be. Is the FDP sending mixed signals on purpose? Granted, I can't understand anything, so this adds to the confusion.
 
Bonejack

Bonejack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,654
Working yet? said:
The different narratives from the different articles/videos is making this ordeal far more confusing than it needs to be. Is the FDP sending mixed signals on purpose? Granted, I can't understand anything, so this adds to the confusion.
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If FDP or Greens would rule out Jamaica now, the SPD would be in a way better position regarding the upcoming negotiations. Like ... an almost "We say, you do" position.

Jamaica isn't in any realistic chance to happen since the Greens will have the coalition contract voted on by their base. And their base made it loud and clear that they don't wanna govern with the CDU.
 
Gurgelhals

Gurgelhals

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,709
Bonejack said:
If FDP or Greens would rule out Jamaica now, the SPD would be in a way better position regarding the upcoming negotiations. Like ... an almost "We say, you do" position.

Jamaica isn't in any realistic chance to happen since the Greens will have the coalition contract voted on by their base. And their base made it loud and clear that they don't wanna govern with the CDU.
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All of this, plus:
- The FDP basically needs a pretext to explain to their voter base why they are going with the Ampel instead of Jamaica, because they stated very clearly during the campaign that they would want to go with Jamaica. Thankfully, the Union is providing more than enough ammo for reneging on that promise. I expect Lindner at some point to simply go: 'Look, we would have loved to do a Jamaica coalition, but, as everyone can plainly see, the Union in its current state simply isn't capable of leading a coalition government.'

- Even though Laschet is still hanging on for his dear life, there is a sizeable number of Union politicians who would prefer to go into opposition instead of having to prop up a weak Laschet-led government, because it puts them into a stronger position within the party. Söder is only the most prominent figure in that camp. That guy, plus several others, have written off 2021 and are already looking at 2025.
 
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