union has been in government for too long
ampel is only option, there is no other mandate, in terms of respecting the will of the people
ampel is only option, there is no other mandate, in terms of respecting the will of the people
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German Federal Elections 2021 - 20th Bundestag
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Only fair in the scenario we are currently in.
Parties are free to talk.
There is no hard rule the biggest party has to supply the chancellor.
The SPD could have done RRG two times, but instead opted for something different.
Now they don't have the power to threaten with it any more.
Weder Grüne noch FDP haben gerade Macht, sie wollen welche.
Und eine Beteiligung beider Parteien entspricht den Mehrheitsverhältnissen.
Demnach führt dabei nichts am 'Wunsch der Wähler' vorbei, da damit Scholz Kanzler wird und dass nach den Umfragen der einzig klare 'Wunsch der Wähler' ist.
And it doesn't involve either Laschet, Söder or Jamaica.
Forget this, i've misread that paragraph. ^^
Never said anything else. I said we shouldn't take what is happening in the US to celebrate the bare minimum that is expected in democratic systems. Talking.
Your point?
On the contrary, because CDU and SPD are excluding each other all the power is concentrated on FDP and Greens currently. Two parties are currently deciding about a three way coalition. That's not how this is supposed to work and is unrepresentative off voter will.
In such a scenario CDU and SPD need to talk to fill the power void that those small parties are taking advantage off.
After all, as you stated above, Parties are free to talk.
I don't see those talks leading to Ample. SPD isn't present. This are talks about a list of demands. Greens and FDP are cutting a cake that belongs to three parties.
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This is the first meeting. Negotiations with SPD come later and SPD is free to not agree to a coalition if they think their program is not properly represented. Nobody is forced or blackmailed into anything here.
Considering the possible coalitions it just makes by far the most sense for Greens and FDP to talk first. Because if they can't agree on a joint program both Ampel and Jamaica are dead.
Please stop talking about "voter will" (or Wählerwille). A party with 25% of the votes (which represent maybe 70% of voters; which represent maybe 50% of people living here) doesn't have an absolute mandate. Nobody else has. Its abound finding a majority. Any majority works (remember Thüringen and Kemmerich).
That's not what is going on here.
They are talking with each other to empower their position and to destabilise the position of both CDU and SPD.
This is politics and not idealistic altruism.
No it doesn't. Three parties were able to grow, but only the two smaller parties are talking.
Maybe there isn't even a need for them to participate in government.
SPD and CDU need to start talking asap.
Everyone knows that a coalition between SPD and CDU is incredibly unpopular and would destroy the SPD in 4 years. So what's the point of "talking" with the CDU, when everyone knows that a grand coalition is literally the last option on anyone's table. I'm not saying that SPD and CDU shouldn't meet and discuss things, I am simply saying that I doubt it would make much of a difference.
The Greens and FDP are in a natural position of power, and it's in the interests of either party to first coordinate on their respective red lines, and get realistic ideas of what each party can expect. I'm pretty sure the Greens will also have talks with SPD and CDU/CSU too, even if those will likely get less attention then this first meeting with the FDP.
I also don't agree that this is somehow against the "will of the people". That term is complete bullshit anyway, usually used by populists and demagogues. No one can speak for an entire people, and each voting group only represents their own view. It's natural that now that the people have cast their votes, their representatives, the parties, see how they can form a working government, while staying true to their own ideological believes (which were the reasons they receives votes in the first place). This is all a completely normal, democratic process.
It doesn't matter that it's the last option. What matters during the talks with Green and FDP is that there is another option at all.
If there isn't another option, Greens and FDP could basically write a program on their own and then tell SPD and Union they just have to sign it if they want to supply the chancellor.
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Neither SPD oder CDU have any interest right now to talk with each other. That's simply not going to happen.
In a couple of days SPD, Grüne and FDP will meet. I don't see the problem. Greens and FDP are not writing a complete coalition agreement at the moment.
But they can't? Jamaika is dead at this point which means the only option Greens and FDP have to put pressure on the SPD is Neuwahlen in which case everyone loses.
There is no alternative to Ampel anymore and all of them know it, maybe a red-green minority government under Chancellor Scholz but that's about it.
A coalition involving CDU in general is unpopular, but it is an option for the greens. Primitively excluding certain coalitions is a mistake in general it seems.
Their natural position of power is not natural, it is because CDU and SPD are excluding themselves. This needs to be rebalanced and counteracted imo.
Nobody can, and still in a democratic system majorities set the rules. This is not happening with the greens and fdp talking exclusively with each other.
Two parties setting the rules and demands for the larger ones ain't good.
Yes, just as there wasn't any alternative to Jamaica in 2017.
They are not setting any rules, except what conditions they want to agree to a coalition. That is their natural right. If they overplay their position, the SPD can simply walk away. No one is forced to anything, it's just about weighing all the options and deciding what's the best one.
I really do not understand your negative views about what are ultimately completely harmless talks between parties.
Completely different situation a minority government or Neuwahlen are way more likely then another great coalition at this point.
How should it even work? CDU/CSU is in complete chaos but even under these circumstances they will not be junior partner to the SPD under a chancellor Scholz not to mention the other way around is practically impossible besides the base of both party's will never stand for it.
FDP still prefers Jamaica-coalition and wants to talk to CDU first
www.spiegel.de
FDP will erst mit der Union, dann mit der SPD sprechen
Nach einem ersten Gespräch mit den Grünen hat Volker Wissing mitgeteilt, dass sich beide Parteien Freitag erneut treffen wollen. Danach stünden Treffen mit Union und SPD an. Jamaika sei die bevorzugte Option.
www.spiegel.de
FDP still prefers Jamaica-coalition and wants to talk to CDU first
FDP will erst mit der Union, dann mit der SPD sprechen
Nach einem ersten Gespräch mit den Grünen hat Volker Wissing mitgeteilt, dass sich beide Parteien Freitag erneut treffen wollen. Danach stünden Treffen mit Union und SPD an. Jamaika sei die bevorzugte Option.
I´d say its 30:70 "actually wanting to form a coalition" : "Putting pressure on the SPD by showing them Ampel isn´t set yet"
yea, which seems fair enough in the grand scheme of things. I still think Jamaika is poison and not at all likely to happen.
Well, that won't happen, because the hard thing to reconcile is Greens and FDP. They are on many issues diametrically opposed, mostly so on economic policies. While the greens want the state to invest in technological transformation, the FDP wants to lower taxes to incentivize private investment, a plan that according to all the science we have is not going to work when it comes to decarbonization and technological transformation. So I don't see the Greens compromising on this one.
Greens and SPD on the other hand have virtually identical programs. Even though the SPD was part of the coalition that wrote the debt-brake into our constitution, there is strong opposition against the debt-brake in the SPD now. (SPD ThinkTank DezernatZukunft has been producing a lot of anti-debt-brake research, in favor of the so-called "supply-side progressivism" that is also making the rounds in US academic econ cycles. (NYT recently had a piece on it)
I think this will the key issue of all the talks: What are we going to do with the debt-brake and are we going to combat climate change via public investment and directed technological transformation, or are we going to gamble on the market fixing climate change for us hoping that if we just lower taxes enough and do away with regulations, the problem will magically sort itself out.
And Greens absolutely do not want Jamaica, while the FDP would prefer it.
I don't think FDP will be able to force its economic gamble on the magical powers of the market into an "Ampel"-coalition, but in a Jamaica one, the Greens would be unable to introduce their more state-driven approach.
I am very convinced that this question of public vs. private investments, relying on governance or relying on the market to combat climate change, is the crucial question that needs answering now.
Because to me, this doesn't seem like a topic we can flip flop on with the successive governments. The route we take now will inform our policies for decades to come and I really hope that FDP and Union will have to bury their "free market" mysticism because it's suicidal and remarkably naive.
Jamaika or another great coalition are way more likely than Neuwahlen.
It is not as simple as you make it out to be and you know it very well.
We are in a unique situation here, one that is more complex than you seem to want to admit: This isn't just two parties having a friendly talk. This is politics, calculation and power. You need to take a look at the whole picture.
We have CDU and SPD not talking with each other, that alone is weakening their position as Jamaica or Ampel appear to be the only solution. Huge mistake imo.
But this strange unbalance of power gets worse because of what is happening with CDU right now. We have a candidate that is holding on for dear life.
Laschet needs Jamaika to happen or he is out of the political spectrum for forever. He is extremely vulnerable right now and in sheer panic mode. From a power perspective he is the perfect, influenceable "partner" for FDP and Greens. CDU has not set one line that they won't give up during coalition talks, while SPD, FDP and Greens have done so (Mindestlohn 12€, keine Stuererhöhung und Kohleausstieg 2030). It would be interesting to watch, if it wasn't that serious.
My negative view is because, from a pure tactical perspective I fully understand why FDP and Greens are only talking with each other. And it "scares" me. It means they are preparing for Jamaika. It is the most logical approach, that gives them the most say.
A terrible perspective if you ask me and I already feel sorry to have voted green. Jamaika is very likely to happen.
jamaika is a much better ideological fit than ampel. at least fdp has been very consistent about their coalition preference from the start, you can't really blame them for it.
the debt brake isn't even up for debate because you need a two third majority to change/abolish it, which does not exist.
my only hope is that scholz's negotiation experience can help him achieve the impossible.
the debt brake isn't even up for debate because you need a two third majority to change/abolish it, which does not exist.
my only hope is that scholz's negotiation experience can help him achieve the impossible.
I don't think it's that simple. The Greens know that Jamaica is not very popular with their voting base. You might sell it if they get really big consessions on their environmental policies, but it doesn't seem at all clear to me that the CDU is willing to cave on their policies here. I also doubt Laschet will be a factor for much longer, his position is not at all secure.
Politics is always about calculation and power, it's never anything else. If you are a Green voter who believes 2021 is the last moment to change your countries enviromental policies, then a Jamaica coalition with a very weak CDU might be a better option than one led by the SPD, with Scholz being very vocal against things like taxing C02, one of the most critical tools to reducing emissions.
My point isn't that the parties are all nice, it's that they all play exactly the role that they should be in a democratic country. Nothing is set in stone, and of course the weakness of one party will be the strength of others. Even getting a majority isn't all that useful if you need to get two other parties to agree to form a coalition with you. That's not "against the will of the people." It's just how democracy works if no party gets more than 30% of the vote.
What? All parties have been voted, and while I am still confused what the fdps appeal (i dont think fdp can do digitalisierung, they have had the chance even together with the cdu, they failed) is, the green party clearly represents the wish for a more climate friendly politic.
It is exactly what the voters wished for.
That the FDP first talks with the Union is not a sign for Jamaica, but the most logical thing to do from a negotiation standpoint.
You first go to the weaker one aka the Union, which has to give you more or less everything you want due to their weak position, and then you go to the SPD with these concessions from the Union in your pocket to put pressure on them.
You first go to the weaker one aka the Union, which has to give you more or less everything you want due to their weak position, and then you go to the SPD with these concessions from the Union in your pocket to put pressure on them.
If FDP and Greens come to an understanding CDU doesn't need to cave in on anything mayor anymore. The biggest differences between CDU and Greens are of social justice and economical nature. The same things that set FDP and Greens apart. Once those are solved between FDP and the Green Party, the jump to CDU is minimal. All that is needed are a couple of extra positions, wishes and extra demands that Laschet will be very happy to fulfil.
Greens have positioned themselves against CDU during Wahlkampf. Not just from a green perspective but social justice was also big for them and a key factor to set them appart. Just green politics is not what they promised their voters. You couldn't be more wrong, Greens had two, very clear pillars during Wahlkampf.
Did you even read what i wrote? Cuz you talk about something entirely different. This is about representation. And all parties represent the Waehlerwille, not only the party with the highest vote.
If FDP and Grüne can come to a consensus on how to finance all the changes we need, we will get an Ampel coalition. If the green base can accept it, the SPD can as well. SPD can get their 12€ Mindestlohn and probably tax reductions on small and medium companies/earners. Taxing american companies seems like something all three want so we will also get something there.
You were talking about the greens representing their voters by going for a more climate friendly politic.
My objection was the question if that is enough, when their Wahlkampf had two pillars: Greener politic and social justice. Are they still representing their voters should they drop one of those pillars for Jamaica? I do not think so.
Source: Welt
This means that Jamaika is officially a thing of the past. So ppl can now stop bringing it up it's over.
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You said Waehlerwille is not represented, i gave examples of representation.
And yes, greens climate policies is one of the main reasons why people voted green. If you go through this thread you can see it as well. People did not vote actively against spd, but wanted the best representation of green/spd goals (which to be fair are VERY similar in content) the spd alone wouldnt have achieved, therefore many voted green to emphasize green politics more.
That green and fdp discuss first IS waehlerwille. Because we want green politics to be represented. Without "zitruskoalition" we wont have spd/green. Why'd you discuss spd/green or spd/fdp if the bigger clashes are among fdp/green and these parties are way more significant for the coalition to even form: without this coalition we only have groko.
I dont get it. Yes, the looks might be a factor and the freedom promise might be as well christian Lindner can talk, but other than that? Content of fdp is simply horrible.
WHY do people believe FDP can do Digitalisierung?! I dont get it!
Bundesministerium für digitale Transformation
- no explanation how they want to manage the conversation from paper to data.
Flächendeckende und hochleistungsfähige Mobilfunkabdeckung
- der offene markt regelt nicht wifi an tante emmas milchkanne!! Und es nervt mich immense das dieses mindset verteilt wird. Er schafft es nicht mal den internet ausbau in reichen vierteln von grossstaedten voran zu bringen. Das ganze wird dann zu kosten der nutzer gemacht, ich bezweifele sehr stark das neuwaehler 100-300 euro monatlich ausgeben wollen fuer LTE & internet festanschluss nachdem sie 1.000 euro fuer das mobile device hingeblaettert haben.
Glasfaserausbau: Der Markt regelt das. Der Betriebskindergarten der direkt neben der grossen, bekannten und einflussreichen Firma liegt hat eine 16k Verbindung. 2022 wird aber Glasfaser gelegt. Bis zur Firma. Der Kindergarten dahinter? Fahrt mal weiter mit 16k.
Wie man da digitale Elternabende fuehren soll, Elterngespraeche ueber Video, Einstellungsgespraeche von Auslaendischen Praktikanten oder einfach nur Speichern von Dokumentationen. Unsere komplette Verwaltung wird digitalisiert, mit 16k. Selbst das, was wir haben erreicht nicht den kompletten Kindergarten. Digitale Angebote sind in einigen Bereichen nicht moeglich.
DAS kriegen wir unter FDP Fuehrung, im Klartext: Nichts. Die Telekom hat keinen Bock den Ausbau zu bezahlen, andere Anbieter haben null Ambitionen dafuer. Wozu auch? Die telekom macht's doch.
dann haben wir orte wo das netz wechselt, andere anbieter uebernehmen und dann auf einmal anwohner informiert werden: ja ihre 25k, die haben wir jetzt nicht mehr. Aber sie haben die wahl zwischen 16k und nichts.
Digitale Verwaltung als Dienstleister
Many of our data collection is laendersache. Do they want to take that responsibility from state? The bund cant decide that. They cant collect all data in one center for OBVIOUS reasons.
Lets assume they could. How do they want to manage all this with germanys infrastructure?! It's simply not possible. Even if so, that will result in less freedom in the end.
Fdp promises digitalen fortschritt, and every time they do not deliver, not because what they promise isnt done. Their approach just does not work. I dont get it why people vote them for it.
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Berlin gonna Berlin.
The whole investigation piece is just gold:
Auffällig viele ungültige Stimmen in 99 Berliner Wahlbezirken - rbb24.de
Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf veröffentlicht Schätzungen statt Wahlergebnisse - rbb24.de
Because a lot was talked about voter will here these past few days and that CDU and SPD should get into talks asap.
The Politbarometer from today:
Maybe someone should project this into the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus, because that looks like a definitive "Wählerwille" to me.
24% want Jamaica.Because a lot was talked about voter will here these past few days and that CDU and SPD should get into talks asap.
The Politbarometer from today:
Laschet: "Ein klarer Wählerwille für Jamaica erkennbar."
Right, but the vote is over and the voter will doesn't matter anymore. I agree though, Ampel would be best option.Because a lot was talked about voter will here these past few days and that CDU and SPD should get into talks asap.
The Politbarometer from today:
I wonder how these curves would look like with Söder though. I genuinely think Germans these days only care if they somewhat trust that person who is a candidate, der den Laden zusammenhalten kann. The "Wählerwille" seems to be "no Laschet" and a tentative "we trust Scholz to do it", but not much more. Also, we still elect parties not coalitions, no matter how much politicans want to spin it or how tactical people get. Maybe I'm cynical and still somewhat disappointed about the lack of topics in this election campaign, too.
I'm pretty convinced we'll get the Ampel either way.
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Polls after the vote about preferred coalitions are meaningless.
The vote is the vote and is all that counts.
I mean, its still going to be Ampel, but not because of these polls.
Stoibers birthday party is more important than coalition talks, nice priorities Union. :lol
The vote is the vote and is all that counts.
I mean, its still going to be Ampel, but not because of these polls.
Stoibers birthday party is more important than coalition talks, nice priorities Union. :lol
We don't have a "voter will" or "Regierungsauftrag" in our Grundgesetz. This article is a good reminder of it https://www.freitag.de/autoren/jaugstein/kanzler-oder-ampelmaennchen (Just use DeepL if you want in English)
Besides the SPD is only ahead with 1,6% and had the 3rd worst turn out in history. It is impossible to say it is clear cut they should supply the chancellor.
Besides the SPD is only ahead with 1,6% and had the 3rd worst turn out in history. It is impossible to say it is clear cut they should supply the chancellor.
Pretty sure it's going to be an Ampel at this point too. According to the poll posted above, even a majority of FDP voters now favor an Ampel over Jamaica (53%).
I also wouldn't worry about Söder, because he wouldn't want to become Chancellor in a hypothetical Jamaica coaltion if he could. He's not interested in picking up the mess that Laschet left behind. He probably wants an Ampel too, because that will allow him to do a Stoiber and oppose the federal government from Bavaria at every corner. And that, he probably hopes, will put him in a strong position for the Bavarian state elections in 2023. And if that works out as planned, he's in the pole position for the next Bundestagswahl. Söder can bid his time, while Laschet can't. In fact, Laschet's time was up on Sunday evening, he just hasn't realised it...