the defeated commented was me. But your impression might very well be true!
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German Federal Elections 2021 - 20th Bundestag
- Thread starter Deleted member 5491
- Start date
- OT
the defeated commented was me. But your impression might very well be true!
Well, if it was you, I'm probably worse at reading people than you, so now I'm back to mentally preparing myself for the long reign of Kanzler Armin.
Volt got 0.4% of the vote, they are a non-entity right now. I've never really heard anyone talk about them, only online.
The latter is more about semantics as I understand it. In fact, Laschet did not say that the CDU hast gotten a "Regierungsauftrag", just that he's trying to build a governing coalition. And that's neither forbidden nor unprecedented in the history of the Bundesrepublik. Brandt did it in 1969, despite the gap between CDU and SPD being wider than 2021, and Schmidt did it in 1976 despite SPD being 6 percentage points behind the CDU (so even wider than 69). So while the CDU deserves to be critizised to hell and back, this move is legitimate *and* has been done before (twice!).
If it wouldn't be better for the CDU (and the country) to take the hint and go into opposition to renew themselves is another question. Laschet knows that becoming Chancellor is his last straw, otherwise his political career will definitely be over. As it will be for the members of the Präsidium who supported him as the candidate (not that Bouffier would care as he will resign after this Legislaturperiode in Hessen anyway, but the younger ones will sink together with Laschet). Also who really believes that the CDU can successfully renew themselves anyway, they would need a complete start from scratch as there are no unique policies left whatsoever. They know that they will most likely go the way of the Italian christian democrats (aka fading into obscurity and dissolving a few years later) as there is nothing left to 'build upon'. If Laschet doesn't manage to form a working coalition, CDU is done for good.
I know. Still it is usually a sign for the party to start dropping him sooner than later.
Logic would dictate that Ampel would be the only thing that makes sense after CDU/CSU having lost as big a share of votes as they have, and that anyhting other than the opposition role would be preposterous for them to strive towards. But then i remembered which timeline we are actually living in and yeah... it's kind of Murphy's timeline, where anything that can go wrong, WILL go wrong, so i fully expect CDU/CSU to be part of the government. Hoping i will be proven wrong.
thats exactly what people said about the SPD not long ago. CDU lost a fair amount of votes coming from a rather clear majority and after 16 years of government. They are in a historically weak position yet they are still head to head with SPD. I probably wouldnt doom them just yet. "done for good." ...
Is there a map for these parties somewhere? I want to know where the Querdenker voters are from.
CDU had all constituencys in MV and lost all of them. He didn't decline much more than other CDU candidates.
DonÄt think anyone in his home home district care much about Augustus or anything.
2017:
2021:
Or they care about CDU coraption in general, or dislike Laschet or, or, orCDU had all constituencys in MV and lost all of them. He didn't decline much more than other CDU candidates.
DonÄt think anyone in his home home district care much about Augustus or anything.
2017:
2021:
Result is still pleasing.
Thanks! Surprised by the northern votes.Here you go:
Morning. I hope you all had a good nights sleep to process all the results.
As you're already deep into discussing the federal election I'll try to summarize some results from the state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where I live.
So, obviously, SPD won in a landslide, mostly because they had a really straightforward campaign focused on Manuela Schwesig.
SPD gained 9%, Afd lost 4%, CDU lost almost 6%.
This, of course means that SPD can nearly govern by themselves and can basically pick any of the other parties as the junior partner:
Also remarkable is that almost all direct mandates went to the SPD:
There is still one that went to AfD, but compared to the last vote (2016) it looks much better:
Some observations:
* SPD also won because of the general trend, but the main factor was Schwesig. She really grew into the role as prime minister and showed that really confidently in the campaign. Success storys like low COVID infection rates, strict COVID regulations, guaranteed Kindergarden places for no fees, etc. really helped.
* CDU completely collapsed, also because of the larger trend (see federal election) but mainly because of several scandals (former interior minister and CDU leader Lorenz Caffier buying (getting gifted?) weapons from Nordkreuz people, corruption regarding his summer house on Usedom (building in restricted areas) etc. didn't give them exactly a head start but their campaign was also really uninspired, their main candidate (Michael Sack) was completely faceless and dry.
* AfD lost, but not as much as one would have hoped. Basically this was just the same reduction as has been observed in the federal election. based on how they "performed" during the last period they should have lost much more. The party basically split three times. There is still an ongoing fight in the party where some of the biggest districts openly rebel against the partys state leadership (for example the Kreisverband Rostock is protesting against AfD events by AfD MV when they happen in Rostock). Many candidates left the party, formed new ones, or threw dirt at other candidates.
* The Linke lost a few points, generally going with the federal trend, although losses weren't quite as high. It's still the worst result for them in MV ever, though. They weren't that much visible with their campaign though and I feel a lot of people just trust Schwesig to do "enough" social stuff that they just went with SPD this time.
* Greens and FDP both regain their place in the parliament after missing out the last period. Not much to say for me, although I'll never understand why people vote FDP. Especially in MV, which is bascially the poorest state in Germany. Oh well..
Anyhow, I see more positives than negatives, especially compared to the last election.
I just hope we won't get another Große Koalition.
I read about Schwesig before the election and what she did in MV. She seems like a very smart and politician, wouldn't surprise me to see her as chancellor candidate or at least as a possible candidate in 4 years if Ampel doesn't go through.
Was it already posted that CDU might reconsider trying to form a government?
German source:
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/news...er-rudern.2852.de.html?dram:article_id=501532
This would put most of the pressure on the FDP and probably lead to an Ampel coalition that is much easier to stomach for people on the left.
Guess they don't want to have a very unpopular Kanzler for 4 years who is resposible for record losses and then face the decision to replace him or not.
German source:
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/news...er-rudern.2852.de.html?dram:article_id=501532
This would put most of the pressure on the FDP and probably lead to an Ampel coalition that is much easier to stomach for people on the left.
Guess they don't want to have a very unpopular Kanzler for 4 years who is resposible for record losses and then face the decision to replace him or not.
It's interesting that Greens and FDP are so popular among young voters. There was a pretty good interview by a Fridays for Future activist and a young entrepreneur on ARD yesterday. They both spoke well, much better than a lot of the seasoned politicans. It'll be interesting how and if Greens and FDP can find common ground. I think it's a sensible strategy to speak among themselves first. I do think climate change, digitization and overarching bureacracy are pressing topics that these two parties could tackle better than the others. It will be about giving each other space to breathe. I think the methods, not the goals will be the crux. But in some topics they're far apart, too. We'll see.
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Here you go:
Verdammte Ökos.
The Homeopathic doctor of my mom, was sharing links to Queerdenker Facebook groups and stuff like that.
I can only speak for MV, but at least here "dieBasis" had a quite visible campaign. A few of their top people were also candidates here. For example Wolfgang Wodarg was Candidate against Amthor. Rostock also has a quite resilient Querdenker-Szene. Their top local candidate (Susanne Kreft) is also one of the leads of local Querdenken.
Laschet and Paulchen are having an interview right now, i just post one sentence so that you know how this is going:
Dude must've been smoking something, but not on the lungs.
Dude must've been smoking something, but not on the lungs.
I'm actually fine with the existance of Die Basis, I'm pretty sure they're stealing some % from the AfD as they're all a bunch of crazy people lol
Laschet is a weasel who will bow to all demands from Greens and FDP to become chancellor but I hope the party hardliners in the CDU are not gonna go along And we get rid of them for at least 4 years.
You know GroKo is unpopular if people would rather watch Thor 2.Moppelkotze
I say it once again: If the Green are enabling Jamaika they can say goodbye to 1X% for the next election cycle.
A overwhelming majority of the green voter are against it and if the partyleader are pushing for it and my wife and I won't vote green again for sure.
A overwhelming majority of the green voter are against it and if the partyleader are pushing for it and my wife and I won't vote green again for sure.
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Laschets entire political career hangs on him becoming chancellor now. Of course personally he would bow to anything proposed by FDP and Greens.
My wife says we concur.
Yes, but he will just become "Berater" for RWE or something if they get rid of him. No big deal imo.
Tut mal nich' so als ob ihr hinterm Mond leben würdet & noch nie Menschen gesehen/gehört/mit geredet habt, die denken sie seien in der "Mitte", aber dann kalte Füße bekommen sobald jemand links von ihnen den Mund aufmacht & sich gegen Transphobie, Homophobie, Rassismus, Islamophobie, Ableismus oder anderen sozialen issues äußert. Dieses typische "ich bin ja sonst in der Mitte, aber diese Linken & ihre politische Korrektheit…". Ich kenne auch viel zu viele Leute, die sich als Querdenker geoutet haben & liebend gern zusammen mit Nazis marschieren, obwohl sie vorher doch so von der "Mitte" angetan waren.
Und habt ihr dir ganzen "centrists" vergessen, die sich auch lauthals überall aufgeregt haben, als wir ernsthaft fucking Debatten darüber geführt haben ob man denn noch als weiße Person in Deutschland das N-Wort, Z-Wort oder andere slurs verwenden sollte?
Wenn' ich einen Euro für die ganzen Menschen, welche ich besonders die letzten Monate gesehen & gehört habe, die meinten sie wären ja in der Mitte, weil die Linke sei "so diskriminierend" und würde sich ja nur um unwichtiges Zeug wie soziale Gerechtigkeit kümmern was wir ja nicht mehr bräuchten, da ja jetzt alle heiraten können & andere solche Scherze, bräuchte ich garantiert mindestens einen Monat nicht mehr arbeiten. Ich versteh' es, wenn Leute nicht Linke wählen aufgrund der Auslandspolitik, leider ist das meiner Erfahrung nach das Allerletzte was die Meisten erwähnen. "Die Linken sind genau so schlimm wie die Rechten" hört man immer noch viel zu oft.
Es gibt unscheinbar viele Leute, die bei dem kleinsten Gegenwind eher die Rechten als die Linken unterstützen würden. Und da geht es mir nicht um das direkte Wählen der AfD oder NPD, da reicht es auch schon die CDU/CSU oder FDP zu wählen. Rory hat's schon perfekt erklärt, von daher will ich den Scheiß nicht noch wieder aufgreifen.
Aber glaubt mir, ich musste mir im Wahlkampf so einiges als Linke & Solid Mitglied von Leuten die sich angeblich in der Mitte befinden anhören, oft ohne, dass ich überhaupt nur ein Wort verloren habe. Und so geht es vielen anderen Menschen auch. Aber Anekdoten sind ja sicherlich nicht das, was euch passt, ne?
Fucking hell, ich kannte mehr als nur ein paar Leute, die dieses Jahr AfD gewählt haben nachdem sie vorher die Linke nur wegen der verdammten Wagenknecht gewählt haben & nicht wegen des Programmes. Als sie mit den Rechten sympathisierte & getan hat als wäre soziale Gerechtigkeit das Schlimmste der Welt & nicht-binäre Menschen wären ja nur ne "skurrile Minderheit" & würden nur Trends folgen & wir sollten uns ja NUR um Klassen kümmern, haben ihr das natürlich manche abgekauft & sind schnurstracks zur AfD über.
Als ob diese typischen "why can't we all get along?! *proceeds to sympathize with bigots*" centrists wie Boogie nur ein amerikanisches Phänomen wären lmao, bitte. Wenn mein ausländischer Vater (der nicht mal Wählen kann) der auch seit Jahren bis zu meinem Coming Out der typische centrist "wegen der Ökonomie" & aufgrund der schlechten Erfahrung mit Tito's Regime war, sich dann aber mit mir zusammen gesetzt hat & sich geändert hat, dann können's Kartoffeldeutsche ja wohl auch.
Anyway, sorry all. Will kein thread derailment hier starten, wäre nur schön wenn Leute aufhören würden die "Mitte" so zu feiern. Darf ich euch zu guter Letzt auch noch dran erinnern, dass der fucking Slogan der CDU "Die Mitte" ist? Sollte ja eigentlich alles sagen, ne.
Yeah, it is really quite the vote drainage train, AFD is siphoning CDU votes, and Die basis and Freie Wähler is siphoning AFD votes.
Yes the double-digit turnout for AFD is bad, even if they lost a few digits from the last BTW, BUT
- It made the current historic low turnout for the CDU possible and with the narrow lead the SPD has, the win of the SPD possible
- it also drained the previous nazi parties of all its voters. The Republikaner aren't even on the wahlzettel anymore since 2017, they were at 2% in the 90s and around 0,5 to 1% in the 2000s, the NPD only got 0,1% yesterday while they were at 1,5 to 2% in the last few BTW before AFD.
The people voting Green on the Bundesebene seem to be totally different from the people voting Green on Landesebene then? Because forming a coalition with the CDU in the Bundesländer did certainly not hurt the Greens. Especially in this case, where the CDU is so weak and panicked that they would sell-out their own grandmothers. They could basically demand *anything* and the Union would comply. Don't get blended by Dampfplauderer Söder when he's trying to play strongman now. "We won't do Jamaica at all costs." It's a bluff and nothing else. The Union will bend over no matter what Greens and FDP ask for. At most they'll bargain for a few policies in the field of inner security (surveillance of Telegram, security cameras in designated public 'Problemzonen" as "Prestige Projekte") to save face and that's that. CSU will get one or two additional ministerial posts (from the CDU) so they comply. Expect a Jamaica coalition that has a ton of Green and FDP policies, rounded of with a bit of CSU flavor and the CDU in name only with a chancellor Laschet who has about as much Richtlinienkompetenz as a class representative.
Civey survey:
CDU/CSU voters: Jamaika 65%, GroKo 9%, Ampel 8 %
FDP voters: Jamaika 44%, GroKo 3%, Ampel 32%
Grüne voters: Jamaika 4%, GroKo -%, Ampel 91%
SPD voters: Jamaika and Groko -%, Ampel 89%
www.focus.de
CDU/CSU voters: Jamaika 65%, GroKo 9%, Ampel 8 %
FDP voters: Jamaika 44%, GroKo 3%, Ampel 32%
Grüne voters: Jamaika 4%, GroKo -%, Ampel 91%
SPD voters: Jamaika and Groko -%, Ampel 89%
Jeder Zweite will sie: Die Ampel ist die Wunsch-Koalition der Deutschen
Das Wahlergebnis steht fest. Zwei mögliche Koalitionen stehen zur Debatte. Auch wenn es rechnerisch noch andere Varianten gäbe: Jetzt suchen sich FDP und Grüne ihren Kanzler aus. Wird es die Ampel mit der Scholz-SPD? Oder Jamaika mit der Laschet-Union? Die Menschen in Deutschland haben dazu...
www.focus.de
Not really surprising tbh.Civey survey:
CDU/CSU voters: Jamaika 65%, GroKo 9%, Ampel 8 %
FDP voters: Jamaika 44%, GroKo 3%, Ampel 32%
Grüne voters: Jamaika 4%, GroKo -%, Ampel 91%
SPD voters: Jamaika and Groko -%, Ampel 89%
Jeder Zweite will sie: Die Ampel ist die Wunsch-Koalition der Deutschen
Das Wahlergebnis steht fest. Zwei mögliche Koalitionen stehen zur Debatte. Auch wenn es rechnerisch noch andere Varianten gäbe: Jetzt suchen sich FDP und Grüne ihren Kanzler aus. Wird es die Ampel mit der Scholz-SPD? Oder Jamaika mit der Laschet-Union? Die Menschen in Deutschland haben dazu...
But clearly more room for Ampel over Jamaika
Civey survey:
CDU/CSU voters: Jamaika 65%, GroKo 9%, Ampel 8 %
FDP voters: Jamaika 44%, GroKo 3%, Ampel 32%
Grüne voters: Jamaika 4%, GroKo -%, Ampel 91%
SPD voters: Jamaika and Groko -%, Ampel 89%
Jeder Zweite will sie: Die Ampel ist die Wunsch-Koalition der Deutschen
Das Wahlergebnis steht fest. Zwei mögliche Koalitionen stehen zur Debatte. Auch wenn es rechnerisch noch andere Varianten gäbe: Jetzt suchen sich FDP und Grüne ihren Kanzler aus. Wird es die Ampel mit der Scholz-SPD? Oder Jamaika mit der Laschet-Union? Die Menschen in Deutschland haben dazu...
If the Green's board wants to play "Dare", here's their outlook.
Tbh, i am surprised that within FDP Jamaica and Ampel are that close.
I expect mass protests/people leaving the party if the Grüne go for Jamaika.
Civey survey:
CDU/CSU voters: Jamaika 65%, GroKo 9%, Ampel 8 %
FDP voters: Jamaika 44%, GroKo 3%, Ampel 32%
Grüne voters: Jamaika 4%, GroKo -%, Ampel 91%
SPD voters: Jamaika and Groko -%, Ampel 89%
Jeder Zweite will sie: Die Ampel ist die Wunsch-Koalition der Deutschen
Das Wahlergebnis steht fest. Zwei mögliche Koalitionen stehen zur Debatte. Auch wenn es rechnerisch noch andere Varianten gäbe: Jetzt suchen sich FDP und Grüne ihren Kanzler aus. Wird es die Ampel mit der Scholz-SPD? Oder Jamaika mit der Laschet-Union? Die Menschen in Deutschland haben dazu...
If Habeck/Baerbock go for Jamaika they won't survive as party leads without a doubt.
Ja. Das sagt aus, dass in Deutschland Wahlen in der Mitte gewonnen werden und jede Partei, die in Regierungsverantwortung gelangen will, möglichst große Claims dort für sich abstecken muss.
The Mitte is real.
Das bedeutet auch, dass die Union keinen Blumentopf gewinnen würde, wenn dort die rechtkonservativen Spacken der Werteunion das Sagen hätten. Und es erklärt auch, warum die Linke gestern so dermaßen abgekackt ist.
Bleibt noch die AfD. Die dämlichen Bumsköppe ziehen mit ihrem Quatsch aber eine derart toxische Wählergruppe von waschechten Nazis über Querdenker, Impfgegner und Demokratiefeinde bis hin zu hoffnungslos verstrahlten Ostalgikern an, dass sie absolut inkompatibel für irgendeine Koalition jedweder Art sind. Also auch hier: Weitab der Mitte = weit weg von der Regierung.
Und ich muss sagen: Damit kann ich als Grünenwähler ziemlich gut leben. Ich hoffe, dass es jetzt zur Ampel kommt. Und bin froh, dass RRG gestern schon um Punkt 18 Uhr vom Tisch war.