German Federal Elections 2021 - 20th Bundestag

[Deleted member 5491]

+++ German Federal Elections 2021 +++
aka Bundestagswahl 2021

Elections for the 20th Bundestag
Sunday, September 26 2021​

Angela Merkels last term as chancellor is almost over and with that the fourth Grand coalition between the Christ democrats (CDU/CSU) and the social democrats (SPD) who historically were the two biggest parties in Germany. Polls say we will have a close run between "The Union" aka CDU and CSU who have been struggleing thanks to ongoing corruption and a chancellor candidate who is making constant mistakes, a Green Party, that has risen in popularity at least since the last EU elections and the protests surrounding the upload filters, but have some problems right now due to claimed plagarism by their candidate and a SPD who has been in the dirt ever since the first Grand coalition under Merkel and being known as not fighting for their believes. They are the ones gaining right im the polls now, since other other parties are getting negative PR.

Parties and candidates:​

CDU/CSU:
Ideology: Liberal Conservative, Christian democracy
Candidate: Armin Laschet - Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW)
Laschet has been the Minister President of NRW since 2017, the federal state in Germany with the biggest population. He got elected as party leader of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) on January 16 2021 and named the candidate of CDU and CSU for the election on April 20 2021.

SPD:
Ideology: Social democracy
Candidate: Olaf Scholz - Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance
Scholz was part of the Bundestag in 1998 til 2001 and again from 2002 to 2011 and general secretary under former chancellor Gerhard Schröder. He was also mayor of Hamburg from 2011 til 2018 and was also Federal Minister of Labour and Social Affairs under Merkels first Grand coalition.

Die Grünen (aka The Greens):
Ideology: Green politics, Social democracy
Candidate: Annalena Baerbock
Bearbock is head of the Green party along with Robert Habeck since 2018 and got annouced as their candidate on April 19 2021. Former Green Leader in stae federal state of Brandenburg and is a member of the Bundestag since 2013. She has no experience of leadership on a state or local level.

FDP:
Ideology: (Neo)Liberalism
Candidate: Christian Lindner
Lindner is the leder of the Free Democratic Party of Germany since 2013 and part of the Bundestag since 2017. Before joining the Bundestag he was their candidate for the elections in NRW and was part of the coalition with the CDU in NRW. After the FDP missed the Bundestag in 2013 he brought them back.

Die Linke (aka The Left):
Ideology: Democratic socialism, Anti-capitalism
Candidates: Janine Wissler & Dietmar Bartsch
Wissler is one of the Co-Chairman of the party while Bartsch is a longstanding member of the Bundestag. They run with two candidate because like with the FDP and AfD, they don't have any realistic chances of naming the chancellor. Right now they are figting to remain in the Bundestag.

AfD:
Ideology: German nationalism, right-wing populism, anti-immigrant
Candidates: Alice Weidel & Tino Chrupalla
(Deputy) Leaders of the right-wing populist/extremist party "Alternative für Deutschland". Also no chance of naming the chancellor (Thank god).

Electoral system (aka the mess):​

Germany uses the MMP system, which stands for mixed-member proportional, a system combining first-past-the-post and proportional representation. This allows us to vote for a direct candidate in one of the 299 constituencies and give one extra vote to one of the party lists.
Before the election, the parties of each constituency vote for their candidate while the party on a federal state level votes for their list and the order of candidates on that list. The higher you being on the list, the better your chances are on getting into the parliament.

Each state get's a cetain number of seats, based proportionally on the population in that state which all combined matches the number of constituencies (299). Seats for each list in each state will be given based on the obtained percentage of second votes in that state and the already won constituencies. Basically the Sainte-Laguë method (It's a mess).
But only if your party reaches the threshold of at least 5% in the second vote OR can gain 3 direct candidate. But no matter your party affiliation, if you won your seat as a direct candidate, you're in.
Due to some parties gaining more direct seats than getting second votes or others getting for example no direct candidate but more second votes, parties will get compensation seats, to actually match the percentage of second votes in the Bundestag. Because of that, most of the time the Bundestag is bigger than the 598 seats, last time it was over 700 and with that the second biggest parliament in the world (only behind China). Something our Federal Constitutional Court criticized.

And for those who didn't know: CDU and CSU, their bavarian sister party, basically run as one party in these election. CSU only operates in Bavaria, where there is no CDU and usually they win almost all direct seats there and are always part of the parliament.

Current parliament:

From left to right:

• The Left: 69
• SPD: 152
• Greens: 67
• Union: 245
  • CDU 200
  • CSU 45
• FDP: 80
• AfD: 88
• Non-inscrits: 8

2017 Election results:

Polling:​

Other parties:​

These are not all parties running in the elections. We have up to 47 parties, almost all out of the six above, won't make it into the Bundestag. But their results are important for getting federal party funding, which is important to them, since their small numbers of members can't cover all their costs alone.
Here is a complete list of all parties: https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/...gswahl-2021/23_21_parteien-wahlteilnahme.html

How to vote:​

If you're 18 years an older you will obtain an Election notification with your post these coming days from your local election office. They got these informations from your local Registration authorities. With that you can order absentee ballots or combined with your ID go to your designated Poling station. Every city, every village has multiple polling stations, based on where you live. You can only vote on the station that is listed on your notification. Polling stations are open from 8am to 6pm.
Usually there are no lines, you don't have to wait and are done in a couple of minutes.

Unsure who to vote for? Use this:


Something else?​

Yes to be honest. There is a lot to say about the importance of the elections in terms of climate change, rents, mobility, infrastrcutre...
- Recent changes to our voting laws and how this will remain a topic
- The role of the media and social media and the ongoing shitshow of not really caring about the parties programs
- How the recent floods changed the dynamic even more and with how poorly the situation in Afghanistan is handled, there migt be more fluctuations in the polls coming.
- The elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern etc etc

All stuff that can be hopefully explained, if asked, but would be too much otherwise here.

Spoiler

And sorry for any misspelled guff. Not that fluent in english, but I hope I could explain you a bit about our elections

 

[Deleted member 5491]

[Reserved]

 

[regenhuber]

Great OT brudi

 

[Bonejack]

Let's agree to make the official inofficial slogan of this Bundestagswahl: "Keep Laschet from being chancellor"

Anything else really is just icing on the cake.

 

[Xando]

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst and we get a goverment with cdu and fdp involvement

 

[Streusel]

good job including pollofpolls, it's a great website

personally i think freie wähler will get to over 5% because of lapsed union voters/ antivaxxers

scholz will easily win (30%+/-) and die linke won't reach 5%

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst and we get a goverment with cdu and fdp involvement

Click to shrink...

The way Die Linke is trending now and with people liek Lafontaine still bein vocal and Wagenknecht being on number 1 in NRW... I don't really see them getting enough votes to make Red-Red-Green possible. I think, if nothing major happens, we will get the Ampel with Scholz as chancellor

good job including pollofpolls, it's a great website

personally i think freie wähler will get to over 5% because of lapsed union voters/ antivaxxers

Click to shrink...

Not so sure about that. Have seen them with around 3% in some polls, but antivaxxers have the AfD and "Die Basis"

 

[Ronghar]

This is my first time voting in the Federal Election (Citizen since 2019). Can hardly wait.

 

[Randam]

I really doubt cdu will not be part of the next government to be honest.. :/

Most of the people over 60 will vote for them no matter what..

Hope we can lower to voting age to 16.

 

[Bonejack]

The way Die Linke is trending now and with people liek Lafontaine still bein vocal and Wagenknecht being on number 1 in NRW... I don't really see them getting enough votes to make Red-Red-Green possible. I think, if nothing major happens, we will get the Ampel with Scholz as chancellor

Click to shrink...

You'd need to fire the whole top range of the FDP to make this happen.

Lindner, basically, is nothing but a CDU person in yellow colors, and exists only to enable a CDU government. The same goes for his lackeys.

Hot take: In my opinion, the FDP is about on the same level as the AfD, useless shit in parliaments, and the states and the whole country would be better off without them.

 

[Streusel]

Not so sure about that. Have seen them with around 3% in some polls, but antivaxxers have the AfD and "Die Basis"

Click to shrink...

antivaxxers is not the best word, more anti covid measures/vaccine passes but not ouright opposition. mainly lapsed cdu voters though

 

[Deleted member 5491]

You'd need to fire the whole top range of the FDP to make this happen.

Lindner, basically, is nothing but a CDU person in yellow colors, and exists only to enable a CDU government. The same goes for his lackeys.

Click to shrink...

Sure, but unlike the CDU, SPD would have more to say and we have seen time and time again, how they do everything to stay in charge. Their fraction is mostly Seeheimer

 

[GUArutha]

As a swiss I follow the german vote as close as possible. But this year is a hard choice.

Laschet is such a weak candidate. How he became candidate is beyond my understanding.

Scholz? Why him? He might be good. But where is he? What are his values? To me he is not really tangible. What is his strategy in this campaign.

Baerbock
Actually the greens in germany are very different to the greens in Switzerland. But somehow very alike. As progressive, a bit less green but way less left. It seemed to me she got the candidacy because she is a women. She handled her book problem not very good and therefore is a weak candidate.
If not this year when will they start to gain seats?

All others dont have a chance of winning this thing.

What i like about this years choice is that there is not one populist. But that means it is also a bit boring. 😄 I can see Scholz win this vote by just stand by and let Laschet and Baerbock made their mistakes repeatingly.

 

[CortexVortex]

Baerbock
Actually the greens in germany are very different to the greens in Switzerland. But somehow very alike. As progressive, a bit less green but way less left. It seemed to me she got the candidacy because she is a women. She handled her book problem not very good and therefore is a weak candidate.
If not this year when will they start to gain seats?

Click to shrink...

Yeah Habeck would have been the much, much better candidate. Oh well, still gonna give them my vote.

 

[Bonejack]

Sure, but unlike the CDU, SPD would have more to say and we have seen time and time again, how they do everything to stay in charge. Their fraction is mostly Seeheimer

Click to shrink...

I could see Gruene having a problem with a SPD led coalition where the Seeheimer Kreis is basically in charge. They're, after all, the "conservative" SPD people.

What i like about this years choice is that there is not one populist. But that means it is also a bit boring. 😄 I can see Scholz win this vote by just stand by and let Laschet and Baerbock made their mistakes repeatingly.

Click to shrink...

There is a populist. It's just that he's so dumb and lacking in any skill that he can't even do that right.

It's Laschet. ;]

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Baerbock
Actually the greens in germany are very different to the greens in Switzerland. But somehow very alike. As progressive, a bit less green but way less left. It seemed to me she got the candidacy because she is a women. She handled her book problem not very good and therefore is a weak candidate.
If not this year when will they start to gain seats?

Click to shrink...

I agree. Really seems to me she got the candidacy because the Greens wanted a women (nothing against that, epspecially since many women voted for Merkel) but her book was a major mistake, that should have been caught beforehand by the party and I think Habeck is a way better talker and has on top experience in a state government.

 

[crazillo]

The most depressing part about this election so far is the absolute lack of content. The past few weeks have been about some side discussions like Baerbock's book or, literally, "Laschet smiled". Germany is facing such a difficult road ahead with its most important industry, the car sector, in great transformation. Digitization is hardly pushed forward to the degree necessary. Demographic change is happening. While all parties support tackling climate change, some of the parties are still treating it like any other topic when the IPCC just convincingly showed us again that we have no time to waste.

 

[nacimento]

Best case scenario would be Ampel led by Scholz. He is not good at all, but compared to the others he is a world-class statesman. The most important thing is for the CDU and Laschet to fuck off, what a garbage party and candidate.
The Greens have shown that as a party they are not ready to lead, I have seldom seen such incompetent crisis management in a party. Baerbock has also been declining rapidly.
FDP is shit but could be a decent junior partner. I like Bartsch from Die Linke but his party is a circus and Wissler is a zealot.
AfD can go back to the hole they came from. They might get some more points with Afghanistan refugee fearmongering but I don't see them growing by much luckily.
Truly a terrible election season, but I think a lot is on the CDU sapping all content from the political discourse in the Merkel government

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Best case scenario would be Ampel led by Scholz. He is not good at all, but compared to the others he is a world-class statesman. The most important thing is for the CDU and Laschet to fuck off, what a garbage party and candidate.
The Greens have shown that as a party they are not ready to lead, I have seldom seen such incompetent crisis management in a party. Baerbock has also been declining rapidly.
FDP is shit but could be a decent junior partner. I like Bartsch from Die Linke but his party is a circus and Wissler is a zealot.
AfD can go back to the hole they came from. They might get some more points with Afghanistan refugee fearmongering but I don't see them growing by much luckily.
Truly a terrible election season, but I think a lot is on the CDU sapping all content from the political discourse in the Merkel government

Click to shrink...

Scholz truly has the best stateman appearance. Laschet is a clown and Baerbock kinda comes off as too naive and unprepared. Still won't vote for SPD. Not for what they did the last few years. My problem with FDP in a Ampel would be, their takes on climate change, rent and taxes on superrich

 

[GarbColle]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned yet the embarrassing infighting the Greens did in Saarland which got them disqualified from receiving second votes there. Doesn't make gaining votes easier. It's one of the smallest states, so the direct impact is probably small, but still the public look is probably not helping elsewhere.

German Greens must sit out vote in one state during national election

But far-right AfD succeeds in its appeal, allowing the party to run a list of candidates in another state.

www.politico.eu

 

[Gala]

Hope Laschet continues his Wahlkampf for the SPD like this.

 

[Martin]

Already applied for my postal vote.
I really hope Laschet gets a good "Backpfeife"

 

[eebster]

The RRG dream is a possibility after the last survey

 

[Deleted member 60185]

edit

 

[Kyougar]

I just hope that Laschet gets the boot.

Best to hope for: red-red-green
Would take it: red-yellow-green

horror scenario because laschet just cares about power: black-yellow-blue

 

[strudelkuchen]

(not) looking forward to this shit show.

[...]

horror scenario because laschet just cares about power: black-yellow-blue

Click to shrink...

0% chance.

 

[Kyougar]

(not) looking forward to this shit show.

0% chance.

Click to shrink...

The last 2-5 years in the world proved to us that there is no such thing as a 0% chance.

 

[Klyka]

I hope the CDU gets absolutely demolished. I hope.

My gut tells me we are getting Laschet as chancellor cause so many people are just idiots

 

[FliX]

Best to hope for: red-red-green
Would take it: red-yellow-green

Click to shrink...

yea everything else is varying degrees of shit.

 

[Bonejack]

I would love to have Red-Green, without a third party in the coalition. But that's wishful thinking based on not wanting the FDP to have any hand in government at all, and because i feel like there's a few too many lunatics still in the Linkspartei.

 

[FliX]

I would love to have Red-Green, without a third party in the coalition. But that's wishful thinking based on not wanting the FDP to have any hand in government at all, and because i feel like there's a few too many lunatics still in the Linkspartei.

Click to shrink...

It legitimately seems like the times of two party coalitions is coming to an end in Germany...

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Here the latest polls:

First who you would vote for in the upcoming elections:


And who you want as chancellor:

 

[Muffin]

Voting Green, and happy as long as there is no CDU in government. 2017 I would have taken a Black-Green coalition if the numbers were there, but not with the current CDU.

Rather go with Ampel and have to deal with the capitalism-loving Lindner.

As somebody living in NRW, Black-yellow on the federal stage is my horror scenario. Thankfully the numbers arent there.

 

[Lastbroadcast]

Is Scholz more popular than his party? Seems strange that he's 8pc more popular than the overall SDP primary vote

 

[Deleted member 5491]

Is Scholz more popular than his party? Seems strange that he's 8pc more popular than the overall SDP primary vote

Click to shrink...

People know that they vote a party and not only a person. But it has huge impact on their decisionmaking.
SPD won around 5 percent points because Laschet and Bearbock acted badly, while Scholz just stood there

 

[Bufbaf]

Fantastic OT, well done :)

obligatory fuck AfD

half-obligarory also fuck CDU

 

[Galo]

Great OT!

Really hope that Laschet will not be chancellor, he's such a Clown. (maybe a blessing in disguise cause more people would vote for Union if Söder was candidate)
Best case realistic scenario would imo be Red-Red-Green with Baerbock as chancellor but I'm not too hopeful. (Just can't stand CDU/CSU, FDP and AFD)

From those three I'm going to vote for the Greens cause SPD has done some really stupid shit with the Union in the past and I also don't really like Scholz. Die Linke alligns most with my views but there are some reeeally weird characters in that party so I can't vote for them in good conscience. (also Bavarian, so the 1st vote and constituent is most likely going to CSU anyway regardless of who I vote for)
AfD and FDP represent basically everything I hate about today's society so every vote less for them is a good thing. And whille I did like Merkel quite a bit, her party is just absolutely unvotable especially as they continue to allign more and more with the right and the AFD.

 

[Kyougar]

Die Linke would be a voteable party if they would just abandon their whole foreign policy and just concentrate on domestic issues.

 

[Klyka]

I do not want the FDP anywhere near a government
An absolute scam of a party that only exists to prop up the CDU

 

[Kazooie]

I could see Gruene having a problem with a SPD led coalition where the Seeheimer Kreis is basically in charge. They're, after all, the "conservative" SPD people.

Click to shrink...

But the greens also picked a conservative candidate (Baerbock) and last time they even had to two conservative top candidates, one of which so unfathomably conservative, they drove me off voting for them (Göring). They could probably live with Scholz.

 

[Deleted member 5491]

But the greens also picked a conservative candidate (Baerbock) and last time they even had to two conservative top candidates, one of which so unfathomably conservative, they drove me off voting for them (Göring). They could probably live with Scholz.

Click to shrink...

Yep. Both Bearbock and Habeck are Realos. But also depends a lot on the people that get into the Bundestag.
Last time Greens and SPD were the government, Seeheimer and Realos were in charge and we know how that worked out.

 

[Anarion07]

Go Volt!

 

[Team_Feisar]

Still undecided wether to vote the Greens who i actually want to win or SPD to strategically bolster the most realistic non-CDU/CSU option....

 

[Anarion07]

Wahl-O-Mat will go online on September 2nd

 

[Rotkehle]

Still undecided wether to vote the Greens who i actually want to win or SPD to strategically bolster the most realistic non-CDU/CSU option....

Click to shrink...

I'm kind of in the same position. The main goal is to prevent Laschet. He is a catastrophe for NRW and will be one for Germany.

I would have also no problem with the Greens in charge.

The AfD going single digit would also be something I would want to see.

 

[Team_Feisar]

I'm kind of in the same position. The main goal is to prevent Laschet. Hey is a catastrophe for NRW and will be one for Germany.

I would have also no problem with the Greens in charge.

The AfD going single digit would also be something I would want to see.

Click to shrink...

Yup. My fear is that voting Green instead of SPD will split the non-Union vote too much and make way for a black-yellow coalition which would probably be the worst outcome.

 

[Xater]

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst and we get a goverment with cdu and fdp involvement

Click to shrink...

Dear god I would projectile vomit. Please keep the FDP out of any government. We don't need a diet libertarian party.

personally pretty sure what I will vor for and that's a party I generally align with issue wise. I do think though that all chancellor candidates are weak. I guess Scholz is inoffensive but Habeck would have been better for the greens and Söder for the CDU/CSU, Even if I hate that guys guts almost as much as Laschets.

 

[Glasgow Mega-Snake]

Seriously, what is Scholz even doing? Not that the SPD has had a good candidate in ages, but right now they might as well just not be campaigning

The most depressing part about this election so far is the absolute lack of content. The past few weeks have been about some side discussions like Baerbock's book or, literally, "Laschet smiled". Germany is facing such a difficult road ahead with its most important industry, the car sector, in great transformation. Digitization is hardly pushed forward to the degree necessary. Demographic change is happening. While all parties support tackling climate change, some of the parties are still treating it like any other topic when the IPCC just convincingly showed us again that we have no time to waste.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, it sucks.

Everything's just centered around these stupid mini-scandals, Baerbock's cv, Baerbocks's book, Laschet smiling... nothing about actual issues

 

[Xater]

Yeah, it sucks.

Everything's just centered around these stupid mini-scandals, Baerbock's cv, Baerbocks's book, Laschet smiling... nothing about actual issues

Click to shrink...

True just awful. I guess I will do what I always do though. Read through the main parties programs, do the Wahl–O–Mat and then settle on SPD or Greens.

 

[Hana-Bi]

Really hope we won't see the CDU/CSU in any coalition. They really became even worse than before. Laschet now desperatly tries to fish for some AfD votes and with the CSU in power we will get the worst and unqualified people imaginable in charge again.

Sadly I really hate Lindner too and the Ampel will be a shitshow because of his ego and probaly means that we'll see a new election in less than two years... So I really don't know how the election will have a good outcome. RRG might be possible but Die Linke really should start living in the real world to make that happen.