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Georgia voters flood polls ahead of crucial Senate votes
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
I feel more comfortable about Warnock than I do Ossoff. I still remember his last defeat even with all the good press and word of mouth going on around him plus the fact that he's a regular at Dragoncon which is one of the biggest geek communities in the country. I can only hope that Mitch's latest bullshit sealed the GOPs doom.
Glad to see it happening, but I'm not looking forward to the line when I go on Saturday lol. Can't wait for my mailbox to stop being stuffed with anti-Ossoff flyers though.
There is no universe in which turnout for a Senate runoff in January is equal to or higher than turnout for a presidential election.
But even so, early voting figures are quite promising for Democrats, who are keeping pace or exceeding (proportionally) their numbers from the presidential early voting - while Republicans are failing to keep pace with their own early voting share from the November election.
Its a bit crazy how much is actually riding on these 2 elections and what level of strategy is going in. There is a real factor of "if you campaign too much for a candidate, people will turn out for the OTHER candidate in anger" at play too imo, anyone who lives in a swing state knows you can get really, really, really tired and angry at being constantly harassed by mail, phone, TV ads, etc and become ornery.
Probably a lot will come down to local canvassing, getting people out to vote, etc. I think it favors democrats a tiny bit but the Nov elections were so close, just a tiny fraction of people deciding X has it in the bag and not voting can make or break it. Biden beat Trump by only 11500 votes or so, out of 5m votes cast. That is a tiny, tiny percentage and literally anything could be the deciding factor - snowstorms, a bad/good ad, a Trump campaign rally, stimulus checks, on and on.
The timelines are crazy too, Jan 3d the new Congress convenes, Jan 5th is the election, Jan 6th Congress convenes to count the electoral college. I assume nobody will be representing Georgia in the Senate on Jan 6th since the election will likely not be finalized, so it changes the dynamics of that especially if Senate republicans contest the results (as one has said they already will).
Probably a lot will come down to local canvassing, getting people out to vote, etc. I think it favors democrats a tiny bit but the Nov elections were so close, just a tiny fraction of people deciding X has it in the bag and not voting can make or break it. Biden beat Trump by only 11500 votes or so, out of 5m votes cast. That is a tiny, tiny percentage and literally anything could be the deciding factor - snowstorms, a bad/good ad, a Trump campaign rally, stimulus checks, on and on.
The timelines are crazy too, Jan 3d the new Congress convenes, Jan 5th is the election, Jan 6th Congress convenes to count the electoral college. I assume nobody will be representing Georgia in the Senate on Jan 6th since the election will likely not be finalized, so it changes the dynamics of that especially if Senate republicans contest the results (as one has said they already will).
I'm not sure historical trends have as much meaning in the age of Trump. Historically, incumbents almost always win, but one just lost for the first time since 1992 and 1980. I have been skeptical on the Democrats chances for a while, but Mitch killing the popular stimulus bill and putting himself on a ballot is a big gift to the Democrats. It's by no means a guarantee that they win, but it's a favorable debate for them in the last week of the election. I think it will at least be close either way, and a split between the two races is somewhat possible.
There really isn't any reason for anybody to split the vote. If they are voting for Warnock, they will likely also check the box for Ossoff as well, especially given the stakes of this election.
Basically, whichever takes it, Perdue or Warnock, will likely carry their counterpart with them. I can't see one winning without the other unless the margin is like a couple thousand at most.
OP
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We all thought the same for Biden too in Georgia. No reason to write off anything.
He or she is right. Just look at how georgia votes. They never vote for a democrat... oh wait
I just hope that the fact that Biden took Georgia will energize more dems that may have sat out because they thought it was not worth it to vote. As well as getting more people registered to vote that weren't for the general election (which, thanks to Stacey Abrams, looks like has been successful). Its enough to make someone hopeful.
georgia electing a Dem president and two Dem US senators would be a shock in any sense of the word.
We powering up? I'm ready to power up. You can do it GA. I'm willing to risk a let down, but my energy is body. I mean...you know what I mean.
It is very hard to think like a "sane republican", but to me getting rid of Trump but still hanging onto the senate would be a major win.
The question then is, is Georgia really in favour of democrats, or is it just filled with somewhat more sane republicans? The latter seems quite a bit more likely to me, which is why I expect a pretty one sided result.
Really hope I'm wrong though.
Its true though, I dont know how this will turn out; but Republicans REALLY fucking respond to energy on the other side of the isle. And the GA runoffs have been everywhere on social media. These stimulus arguments have ratcheted it up big time.
Theres no way Repubs that would usually sit this out havent noticed the fervor and changed their mind. They are gonna show up. Even if its just to fight the "other side" while assfucking themselves in the midst. I feel like this happened with Trump too. There was SO MUCH NATIONWIDE ANTICIPATION to vote him out that the counter energy was extremely strong too. Trump got a SHITLOAD of votes.
She wants Kemp's head before that, and the south to turn blue after. Her efforts might well pay off.
For people who was wondering why there was laughing at the gop getting 20% of the black vote in the polls where they scrape by a win
This. I think the Presidential election was closer than expected because the polls reliably estimated the democrats' high enthusiasm levels but dramatically underestimated how energized the Republicans were in turn. GOP saw all of the buzz about how Biden was going to destroy Trump and made sure to turn up in record numbers themselves.
I think the same thing is in play here- the more excited the dems get by early voting reports, the more motivated republicans will be to turn out at at the polls on election day.
I do think a lot of excitement is for trump. Not really for anyone else on the ticket.
(i am trying to give myself an ounce of hope here)
People said the same thing regarding the general- no one is excited for Biden, Trump has all of the enthusiasm, etc. But it turns out that protest votes were still able to overcome enthusiasm for a particular candidate. So don't underestimate the right's enthusiasm for sticking it to the dems even if few in the GOP are actually excited for their candidates.
Yep. Did my part but not expecting a lot here.
Not that its a huge factor but Democrats don't seem to have much of a media presence here either. All I ever hear is 'GODDAMN AMERICA!" and "RADICAL LIBERAL!" 24/7. I really wish they had spent more money on ads so my entire work day wasn't filled with this on the radio nonstop.
WE GOTTA OPEN UP THE JAAAIIIILLS!
I am in my own personal hell.
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So a few notes here about that - Don't depend on anecdotal evidence lol
and
Rural turnout in NW GA is lagging by quite a bit compared to the general and before you say, they just waited until Election Day to vote, you'd be wrong. 3/4 of Trump's vote in GA came before Election Day.
Also,
if you look at votes by Congressional District, you might notice a pattern with turnout rates as well.
Long story short, there are a hell of a lot of good signs in early voting for Democrats and very very few if any for Republicans. You might end up being right in the end here, but GA has changed and I think Tuesday will continue to prove it.
Not surely at all. There are plenty of reasons some people would vote for Warnock and Perdue. Perdue is an elected incumbent while Loeffler was appointed to her seat and some voters are loyal to incumbents. Some voters (like the people who voted for both Biden and Perdue in November) probably have a distaste for Loeffler because of the way she's campaigned as a Trump lackey with a 100% voting record in line with his positions, while at the same time liking Perdue as a "normal" conservative. And a LOT of American voters actually like divided government, which is why the party in the White House pretty much always loses seats in the midterms.
I really really wish people would realize how polarized GA is before they say this kind of stuff. It's not like a Maine, MT, or other similar states where you generally see much ticket splitting.
Warnock might outrun Ossoff by 0.5 percent if that much here. In fact if you look at November, Ossoff got 47.9 percent. In the special jungle election, if you combined all the Democratic votes, they got...47.8 percent. Not much difference there and I wouldn't expect much of a difference next week either.
And Biden got 49.5% so there was in fact a decent amount of ticket splitting. And the special election with Warnock is not directly comparable because in an election with that many candidates, there could have been Warnock supporters who voted tactically for whichever Republican candidate they wanted him to face in the runoff. Even if Warnock DOES only run ahead of Ossoff by 0.5%, these races are obviously close enough for that to potentially mean the difference between Dems winning one seat vs. two.
A double Senate election hasn't split since the 1950s but sure, you know everything about the electorate of GA and shit.
AFAIK no write ins are not allowed because this is a special election between two candidates to force one of them above the 50% mark.
Wife and I are voting tomorrow. I'm on crutches and can't stand up without them but I'll be there.
You're being weirdly defensive over me simply saying that people exist who will split their vote, which is something that happens in literally any election in any place lol. If you go back to my original post, you'll see that I never even said it was a likely scenario, just that it was within the realm of possibility. And when Biden won by literally 0.2%, it seems silly to be this argumentative over the mere possibility.
Whether you trust the polls or not, pollsters are calling people and asking them who they'll vote for in both races and the average of those polls is currently sitting at Warnock +1.9 and Ossoff +1. So if people clearly exist who are telling pollsters they're voting Warnock/Perdue, it stands to reason that people exist who will do that at the ballot box. We even saw this prior to the general election where polls were showing Warnock winning a theoretical runoff and Ossoff losing a theoretical runoff.
I'm not being weirdly defensive and I never said that people won't split their vote.
What I am saying is that the chances of that happening are a lot less than you might be thinking. Like in the less than 5% chance of happening level. It's not particularly likely at all.