• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,483
Sorry, I will try to rephrase

3million users isn't a very useful statistic when we don't know how many new subs it created, how many of those 3 million users bought the game vs a new $2 GP sub, and of those new subs, how many will drop out once they are done with the game?

You need all of those data points to really see what is going on.

If you cut your sales by 70% to get 2million $2 subs, but 90% of them are going to cancel in a month, than that's not a very good business model.

Their new business model is great for gamers right now is all that should really matter on these forums. But if you are interested in how it is performing then sustained massive drops in Xbox reported revenue over the next few quarters going into next generation that is not explained just by expected loss of hardware revenue is your place to watch or hope as may be the case :)
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,085
Oh I have zero problem with GP being a new business model. My entire point (which causes many to get so defensive it seems) is that just saying "3 million players" is useless when we don't know how much it boosted the GP to begin with, or how many users are going to drop off in a month once that monthly GP fee has to renew.
FWIW I totally get what you're trying to do here and I agree people are overly defensive. Analyzing numbers with due rigor isn't console warring, people.
 

Pasha

Banned
Jan 27, 2018
3,018
Why would MS do that? Probably over half of the people are playing via Game Pass. That's what's most important to them.

Who cares about the sales at this point. It's about the whole picture. Engagement, reach, etc.
Netflix must stop posting their stupid viewer statistic, if they want to play with the big boys they need to post their ticket sales right now!
 

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
Oh I have zero problem with GP being a new business model. My entire point (which causes many to get so defensive it seems) is that just saying "3 million players" is useless when we don't know how much it boosted the GP to begin with, or how many users are going to drop off in a month once that monthly GP fee has to renew.
Well, it is certainly not useless. It just doesn't answer the question you're asking. It is still a very big number. Three million people played the game in the week it released! That shows that there is a significant interest in Game Pass. The Game Pass model is working for them.

And as I said earlier in this thread, it's been proven time and time again that people do not just cancel subscriptions after a promotional offer ends. People often continue to subscribe for long periods of time. That is why these other services offer promotional sign up deals! Look at Disney. They are launching Disney+ which will of course he a massive success so why are they doing this promotional deal where you can pay something like $3/month for the next 3 years? Why would they do that. Get people in the door, they will not leave. So this number means something. You just aren't seeing it, it appears.
 

Pryme

Member
Aug 23, 2018
8,164
The PR firm considered it a good number to promote as they aren't talking to shareholders or execs. I guarantee you if they went into a shareholder meeting with JUST this stat, and refused to say anything else, the shareholders would be pissed.

Well yes, you're stating the obvious. More details are provided to shareholders at earnings calls. Definitely more than in blog posts.
Are you an exec or shareholder ?


No, but I am immensely interested in the business side of the industry. And when trying to pull meaningful data from this, it is absolutely useless. I come to this forum to talk and discuss the industry at large in addition to games. And this is really a useless number.


Actually, no. It's not even remotely meaningless. All sorts of projections can be made from this number provided. This says a lot more about you failing to apply creative thinking to this.

Learn from this; just because Data is provided in a form you don't appreciate, that doesn't mean it is useless
 

Deleted member 18951

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,531
So, you don't agree with the statement that Gears 5 being free would have even more players ?


And you keep doing you, suffering from my coments, lol.

To be fair it's actually part suffering and part amusement. Yes I and others have to suffer your compulsive snidey comments in Xbox related threads but it's also quite funny to see that you cant keep away either, like a moth to a flame. Whatever you get your kicks from I suppose?
 

Darkstar0155

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,161
You want MS to tell you how many people will drop off in one month?

If you are interested in business side of things you have to realize how subscription service models are started, promoted, and looked at on the business side.
Yes, I would LOVE that as then it would allow people interested in the business side to evaluate. I don't expect them too, but that's what I would like.

So, as I state, this number is about meaningless without more information.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,085
Yeah that's true. Nothing against that. It's nice to see a company try to use their resources to make a better value for consumers and better first party efforts :)
The primary concern I have about this model becoming the new standard is that it won't necessarily lead to better first party efforts. Quantity may become more important than quality. On the other hand having a more steady revenue model might make MS (and any others who follow suit) more comfortable allocating massive budgets to tentpole titles. I don't know. Is there a reason to have tentpole titles if you just get everything lumped together in a subscription?
 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,483
Well, it is certainly not useless. It just doesn't answer the question you're asking. It is still a very big number. Three million people played the game in the week it released! That shows that there is a significant interest in Game Pass. The Game Pass model is working for them.

And as I said earlier in this thread, it's been proven time and time again that people do not just cancel subscriptions after a promotional offer ends. People often continue to subscribe for long periods of time. That is why these other services offer promotional sign up deals! Look at Disney. They are launching Disney+ which will of course he a massive success so why are they doing this promotional deal where you can pay something like $3/month for the next 3 years? Why would they do that. Get people in the door, they will not leave. So this number means something. You just aren't seeing it, it appears.

I am subscribed to both Xbox Game Pass Ultimate and Disney+ into 2022 based on promotional deals, and it feels amazing as a consumer :)
 

Darkstar0155

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,161
Well yes, you're stating the obvious. More details are provided to shareholders at earnings calls. Definitely more than in blog posts.
Are you an exec or shareholder ?





Actually, no. It's not even remotely meaningless. All sorts of projections can be made from this number provided. This says a lot more about you failing to apply creative thinking to this.

Learn from this; just because Data is provided in a form you don't appreciate, that doesn't mean it is useless
Ok, I guess you could say it got people playing the game, but this is still a mostly useless metric until we can get some comparative situations. And as of right now its not how most of the industry is working yet, so there is nothing to compare it to.
 

Jenea

Banned
Mar 14, 2018
1,568

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
I don't think it's really in MS's interest to start talking numbers vs Sony right now.
Well it's not like they would come out and say look at these terrible Sony numbers. Ours are amazing. Even though Sony has sold more hardware they don't come out and say Microsoft hardware sales are bad. They leaves those kind of statements up to us :)
 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,483
The primary concern I have about this model becoming the new standard is that it won't necessarily lead to better first party efforts. Quantity may become more important than quality. On the other hand having a more steady revenue model might make MS (and any others who follow suit) more comfortable allocating massive budgets to tentpole titles. I don't know. Is there a reason to have tentpole titles if you just get everything lumped together in a subscription?

Gears 5 is an incredible AAA quality title by any reasonable measure, and it stands right up there with the likes of God of War and Red Dead Redemption 2 for me having played all of them over the last couple years. So this concern being put out there for a game that looks and plays like this one just doesn't seem like good timing.
 

Shairi

Member
Aug 27, 2018
8,540
Congrats to the team. Heard good things about the game.

Though, I would like to know what Microsoft's plans are for Gamepass.

Right now it seems to bleed a lot of money. It's cannibalizing a lot of Day One sales and the revenue generated by gamepass seems barely enough to pay off third parties on the service, let alone recouping lost sales for Crackdown 3 and Gears 5.

Microsoft is probably shocked how fast Gamepass ate into their Day One sales.
 

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
PSNOW has under a million subs?! WOW...that is really low. Damn - hope they can bump that up somehow.
Yup as of May of this year

https://variety.com/2019/gaming/news/playstation-now-use-increase-1203198747/

And Sony said the number of subscribers has grown by 40% on average each year, which is impressive, but consider how small it was a year or two ago! Tiny. Game Pass must have, what, 10m+ subscribers, right?

Input lag + compression were deal breakers when i tried a few years ago. never considered it again.
Did you know you can download most games now? I think it's just PS3 games you have to stream.
 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,483
Microsoft is probably shocked how fast Gamepass ate into their Day One sales.

Yeah, I can definitely see how they would be "shocked" by Gears 5 when they marketed the heck out of it for Game Pass, smh. I can just imagine them sitting around saying let's really push hard for Game Pass everywhere and still expect that people will decide to just buy the game instead of playing it on Game Pass, just wow. That would be banking on having your marketing fail for Game Pass at that point basically.
 

Deleted member 18951

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,531
The primary concern I have about this model becoming the new standard is that it won't necessarily lead to better first party efforts. Quantity may become more important than quality. On the other hand having a more steady revenue model might make MS (and any others who follow suit) more comfortable allocating massive budgets to tentpole titles. I don't know. Is there a reason to have tentpole titles if you just get everything lumped together in a subscription?

There will be all kinds of games in all kinds of genres made with all kinds of budgets.

For every series of The Crown or Stranger Things Netflix has about twenty other films and shows made for those two combined budgets. Game Pass will be the same; Gears 5 into The Outer Worlds into Battletoads into Ori into Bleeding Edge into Forza into Halo with even more games filling out the schedule.

Of course it will come down to quality but with the acquisitions and overall investment you have to be pretty confident that Game Pass will offer fantastic value for the consumer and could open up a huge new revenue stream for Xbox.
 

StudioTan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,836
I find it meaningless personally. If there were 3 millions sub's already, and this didn't create ANY new subs, that wouldn't be very good would it?

Yes it would be because if you're already a sub it means you're likely past the $1 deal which means you've paid for another month of the subscription in order to play the game. Having 3 million people retaining a sub for another month is better than it being 3 million trial member subs.
 

CaptNink

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,116
B.C, Canada
Yeah, I can definitely see how they would be "shocked" by Gears 5 when they marketed the heck out of it for Game Pass, smh. I can just imagine them sitting around saying let's really push hard for Game Pass everywhere and still expect that people will decide to just buy the game instead of playing it on Game Pass, just wow.

LOL - yeah I'm sure that was a real "WTF" moment at MS HQ.
 
Oct 25, 2017
16,252
Cincinnati
Well they could embarrass Sony with their lowly subscription numbers (under a million subscribers).

PS Now and Gamepass aren't even the same thing so why compare them? Sony cares about PS+ right now, not PS NOW, if and when they need to start releasing first party titles day and date on there then start comparing. Anyway on the topic of Gears, can't wait to play it, I wasn't a fan of 4 or Judgement but this sounds like it's back to the glory days!
 

Premium

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
836
NC
The power of GamePass. Game is boring as all hell and I couldn't get past the tutorial. I played through most of 4 but only had played 1 and 2 before that. Itll take me a few years to get through, but I'm glad it's on Gamepass

That's the beauty of Gamepass. Try a game, see if you like or dislike without being locked into a purchase. You're a case study in this new phenomenon.

Millions of folks enjoying this game. MS absolutely killing it!

Gamepass is a true game changer!
 

Darkstar0155

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,161
Their new business model is great for gamers right now is all that should really matter on these forums. But if you are interested in how it is performing then sustained massive drops in Xbox reported revenue over the next few quarters going into next generation that is not explained just by expected loss of hardware revenue is your place to watch or hope as may be the case :)
No, that's the only thing that matters to some. There are many others here that also like to discuss the industry at large, and that also matters when this forum is made up of gamers and industry professionals. Just because some only care about "whats good for the consumer" doesn't mean others aren't interested in the buiseness side.

FWIW I totally get what you're trying to do here and I agree people are overly defensive. Analyzing numbers with due rigor isn't console warring, people.
Completely over defensive. "OH NO X person isn't gushing over the number of people playing a game and is looking at it critically/in a business sense they must be a console warrior/troll!"

Well, it is certainly not useless. It just doesn't answer the question you're asking. It is still a very big number. Three million people played the game in the week it released! That shows that there is a significant interest in Game Pass. The Game Pass model is working for them.

And as I said earlier in this thread, it's been proven time and time again that people do not just cancel subscriptions after a promotional offer ends. People often continue to subscribe for long periods of time. That is why these other services offer promotional sign up deals! Look at Disney. They are launching Disney+ which will of course he a massive success so why are they doing this promotional deal where you can pay something like $3/month for the next 3 years? Why would they do that. Get people in the door, they will not leave. So this number means something. You just aren't seeing it, it appears.
But they didn't give "new sub" numbers. That's why its mostly useless. If they already had 3 million subs, and this didn't cause any new sign ups, that wouldn't be good, correct?

Well yes, you're stating the obvious. More details are provided to shareholders at earnings calls. Definitely more than in blog posts.
Are you an exec or shareholder ?





Actually, no. It's not even remotely meaningless. All sorts of projections can be made from this number provided. This says a lot more about you failing to apply creative thinking to this.

Learn from this; just because Data is provided in a form you don't appreciate, that doesn't mean it is useless
"players", and not subs, or new subs, etc, IS mostly a useless number. I don't need to be a exec/shareholder to care or want to see. that's why physical sales were so nice. It was MUCH easier to see how a game did, relative to other games.

But you would never evaluate a subscription business so early in it's tenure. That would be the worst thing to teach at any business class.
Exactly, and its why this number is meaningless and mostly PR fluff.

MS isn't releasing this number for anybody on Era to evaluate their business model.
I know, they are releasing it as PR to sound good. that's why game sales were nice from NPD, as those were easy to evaluate.
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
I mean, it seems as the number of players is the new metric of success, i just suggested a new method of improving this metric ;)

It isn't. It's just an indicator for real KPIs like revenue or the number of GamePass subcribers, and since we have no idea how many bought that game at full price instead of using GamePass it's basically not even possible to derive anything from it right now.
All we know so far is a lot of people are playing this game. And it's obvious that GamePass contributed heavily to this.

Does MS already report their GamePass subscriber base or are we still stuck with platform-independent MAUs? I guess we might get a chance to see this numbers in the future if it turns out that GamePass is a huge success story.
 

Freakzilla

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
5,710
Are you going to play the campaign for 5 minutes a month

An hour or two a week most likely.

That's the beauty of Gamepass. Try a game, see if you like or dislike without being locked into a purchase. You're a case study in this new phenomenon.

Millions of folks enjoying this game. MS absolutely killing it!

Gamepass is a true game changer!

Yes! Especially with kids and a tight budget LOL.

Why are you playing a game in a franchise you clearly don't like

It's like watching something you're not too interested on TV or a reading a book you're not fond of. Some people just force themselves to go through it for a multitude of reasons. I'm replaying Halo but can't stand Halo 3 but I gotta get through it.
 

Premium

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
836
NC
Ok, I guess you could say it got people playing the game, but this is still a mostly useless metric until we can get some comparative situations. And as of right now its not how most of the industry is working yet, so there is nothing to compare it to.

Look how focused on the numbers you are! Really engaged stakeholder I see! Very cool to see you posture again and again about the "numbers" for "business discussions".

I think it's great to see so much positive engagement from fans on how well Gamepass is doing. Keep it up!
 

Darkstar0155

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,161
Yes it would be because if you're already a sub it means you're likely past the $1 deal which means you've paid for another month of the subscription in order to play the game. Having 3 million people retaining a sub for another month is better than it being 3 million trial member subs.
Which is always why the sub numbers are more important than "number of players", a number they don't provide. And I am guessing MS didn't create this game just to retain users when the service is so new. If they had 3 million subs leading into this, and this created no new subs, I doubt they are happy.
 

SilverX

Member
Jan 21, 2018
12,987
Well they could embarrass Sony with their lowly subscription numbers (under a million subscribers).

The only embarrassment is a grown person having that sort of mentality. Jesus.


Anyways, Gears 5 was well marketed and the Game Pass promotions made the game even more tempting. I can't say I was happy with the way Gears 5 turned out since the campaign could have been way better, but it is a great technical triumph and very well done in terms of the multiplayer side of the game.

I'm just happy to see interest in Gears again really
 

Deleted member 13645

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,052
What I think this number shows is that interest in the Gears IP is still strong. The goal of games on Game Pass is to provide an incentive and draw to subscribe and stay subscribed so they can access that content. Gears achieving these numbers shows it succeeded and that subscribers are interested in playing it. It means little in the "traditional" metrics of copies sold and etc. and trying to look at it through that lense is sorta pointless.