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GamesRadar: Will Sony Dominate The Next Generation Or Can Microsoft Stage A Huge Comeback
- Thread starter Sillegamer
- Start date
Switch is part of this gen and no one in their right minds is going to be comparing Switch sales to PS5/Next box and seriously saying they need to catch up.
Sony still has a huge advantage over Xbox when it comes to exclusives. Xbox acquiring a bunch of new teams is a big step in the right direction, but we don't know what most of them are working on yet. Xbox having no "true" exclusives anymore is also going to hurt them with PC gamers when it comes to hardware.
No, it's not. The miserable failure the Wii U was in the same gen as the PS4 and XBONE.
A question like this on reset era of all places? Good luck getting valid results. It's like asking who was better magic Johnson or Larry bird at the Staples center. Or Messi vs cr7 at Bernabéu.
Besides I think the way the question was formulated was a bit confusing. I think Sony will come on top but not dominate.
Besides I think the way the question was formulated was a bit confusing. I think Sony will come on top but not dominate.
Everything was perfect for Sony in 1994 when they blew out the rest of their competitors.
Everything was perfect for Sony in 2000 when they blew out the rest of their competitors.
Everything was perfect for Sony in 2013 when they blew out the rest of their competitors.
At some point you need to admit that Sony simply built a brand that is flat out stronger than everyone else, and is very, very good at making games and Software. You're not going to exceed them in a Single generation, especially not if your name is Microsoft and you won't hit half of Sony's userbase this round. Microsoft simply being a non entity in most of the EU and JP means that exceeding Sony just isn't possible. There IS no plan to expand and be competitive in these areas- MS is basically giving Sony a 40-50 million unit advantage and being perfectly fine with it.
Consider also that in 2006, with literally EVERYTHING going wrong, and launching a console at the equivalent of $760 US dollars they still outsold the Xbox 360 every single year the two were on the market. The PS3 sold 88-90 million units total- putting it around #5 in all time console sales. 3 of the others are Sony themselves.
MS or Nintendo trying the same thing would have killed their gaming divisions. It's only BECAUSE of how strong the PS brand is that Sony survived that.
"Sony's console win except for when they don't"
PSP
Vita
PS3
"Flat out stronger brand"
If history has taught us anything, it's that anything can happen. Who would have thought that immediately after the Gamecube Nintendo would come back with not one, but the two most profitable consoles of all time and easily win both #1 and #2 of the next generation.
Sony only survived by far the biggest financial failure in the history of gaming in the PS3 because they could bankroll 10 billion in net losses.
Sony will sell more next gen consoles than Microsoft. But Microsoft really isn't playing that game anymore which is why this entire discussion is pointless.
Microsoft is introducing more and more subscriptions and services and is spreading their games across numerous platforms. That's not a business model for a company that wants to do everything it can to sell as many boxes as possible.
At this point the business models of Nintendo and Sony are closer to one another than they are to Microsoft.
Microsoft is introducing more and more subscriptions and services and is spreading their games across numerous platforms. That's not a business model for a company that wants to do everything it can to sell as many boxes as possible.
At this point the business models of Nintendo and Sony are closer to one another than they are to Microsoft.
I think sure part of it is branding, but Sony has also worked with and nurtured like 14 studios for like 20 years. BC will be an impossible hill to climb. Subscription services and fan service had to be the play. But, again, I don't necessarily think Xbox will die or anything. It's one device in the highest grossing tech company in the world. It makes the company "cool". I also don't think "winning" matters when they profit in the billions regardless
wiiu was clearly ps360 gen
you tell me they put black ops 2 on wiiu, ps3 and 360, but not on ps4 and xbone? its the same generation is it not?
Wii U launched only one year before PS4. Wii was the PS360 competitor that won the previous generation.
You can try and make a claim that Switch is a current gen do-over, but the Wii U was clearly in the same gen as PS4Bone.
I agree with all of this. Sony did a VERY good job of building the kind of relationships with third parties, and building the kind of internal studios they needed to get to where they are. This didn't happen overnight, Sony's first party was extremely weak in the PS1/2 era outside of maybe what...Gran Turismo?
Vendor lock in is a thing for both platforms. No one wants to "lose" access to the games and digital content they bought, and both systems are promising drastic improvements to prior generation titles via BC. I don't see ANY significant movement from PS to Xbox or vice versa because of this.
The Xbox isn't going to die. The brand is clearly well liked and profitable, but there is no realistic way that microsoft's gaming revenue exceeds everyone else in a single generation. They don't have the brand strength or marketshare outside of the US to do this, and that's something that must be built over time.
Can you explain this? Are you saying Switch will be part of the next gen and it should be compared to ps5/xb2?
Are we talking just in sales or technology?
Also I will give Nintendo credit in making good hardware and selling a ton of units this year. But are really going to ignore that ps4/xb1 are reaching a point where they've been in the market for a lot longer and ps4 is nearing 100 million in sales? Ps4 sales have been trending downward slowly and it hasn't really been heavily discounted yet. Base model is still 300 bucks. (Its been doing well at 400-300 sans holiday seaons)
Now when ps5 and xb2 release, they will sell out but I expect shortages 2020 holiday. Meanwhile the switch will be fully stocked. I, like everyone else on era, expect switch to sell more units holiday 2020 even with next gen launch. The real challenge for Nintendo will be 2021. Depending the marketplace, it might be a really tough battle for them. I expect some real heat coming from Sony first party come 2021-2022.
It's difficult to say where the WiiU would have landed "Generation wise." Nintendo's launching it late in the generation means that it couldn't possibly have been meant to compete with the PS3 and 360, those systems were set to be replaced with new systems a year after it launched, and would have been off the market in 2.
Nintendo's plan for it was clearly to compete with the PS4 and Xbox One by relying mostly on their first party catalog and the occasional family friendly third party title looking to appeal to that audience. if the WiiU had been successful it would still be sold right now- though probably winding down it's lifespan and getting ready for a replacement. It just bombed so hard Nintendo had to scramble to make other plans.
Huh?
Nintendo had their big wins over Sony, Wii did better than PS3, and in the handheld space there's never been a competition: Nintendo DS destroyed the PSP and Nintendo 3DS destroyed PS Vita.
Sony only in recent history with the last two gens started to develop a proper first party production (peaking on the last one), they've always been about the third parties, Nintendo was all about their first party titles since the NES.
If anything we could say that Microsoft has never had a clear win in consoles: yes 360 did very well, yes on the service side of things they are the best but there has never been a generation dominated by Microsoft, maybe the next one who knows.
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If Nintendo doesn't fuck up their Switch 2 transition and just go with a straight more powerful Super Switch, Nintendo will probably dominate or at least be in #2 ahead of either Microsoft or Sony, whomever has a weaker launch out of the gate.
the thing with MS/Sony is theyare in a zero sum situation, if one is ascendant, the other is in decline, but the industry , even excluding mobile, is much larger that those two.
the thing with MS/Sony is theyare in a zero sum situation, if one is ascendant, the other is in decline, but the industry , even excluding mobile, is much larger that those two.
Except Microsoft is no longer just a console game supplier. They also have the PC and xCloud will start on Mobile which will essentially be an Xbox in your hands like Switch.
Yes it is, the Wii U was such a failure that Nintendo had to release another 8th gen system.
Wikipedia has spoken.
I wonder if Sony's real strength in the console space is being able to see where the market is going.
They saw it with the PS1 and that's why pushed so hard on 3d (instead of Sega's continued 2d push) and large,cheap, storage space (instead of Nintendo's cartridges.
With the PS2 they continued on the 3d push, but also realized how important DVD was going to be (and still is to this day) not only for the extra storage space but also because people were excited about the format for movies.
The PS3... the PS3 was a whiff. Sony's brand carried them. They pushed for blu ray, and even though it won the HD war it ultimately lost out to digital distribution.
Sony made a versatile machine in the PS4. Gave it everything developers and media could possibly need. A working store. A capable network. 8GB of GDDR5. 500GB of storage. Decent capabilities. All of that for a reasonable price. It also helped that Microsoft fucked up and Sony capitalized on it.
I'm not sure Sony's vision for the PS5 is, but I doubt it's the exact same thing as the XB4. They'll go a slightly different direction. Oh, and they'll have the Sony brand.
They saw it with the PS1 and that's why pushed so hard on 3d (instead of Sega's continued 2d push) and large,cheap, storage space (instead of Nintendo's cartridges.
With the PS2 they continued on the 3d push, but also realized how important DVD was going to be (and still is to this day) not only for the extra storage space but also because people were excited about the format for movies.
The PS3... the PS3 was a whiff. Sony's brand carried them. They pushed for blu ray, and even though it won the HD war it ultimately lost out to digital distribution.
Sony made a versatile machine in the PS4. Gave it everything developers and media could possibly need. A working store. A capable network. 8GB of GDDR5. 500GB of storage. Decent capabilities. All of that for a reasonable price. It also helped that Microsoft fucked up and Sony capitalized on it.
I'm not sure Sony's vision for the PS5 is, but I doubt it's the exact same thing as the XB4. They'll go a slightly different direction. Oh, and they'll have the Sony brand.
Outside of the US and the UK I think Xbox is pretty much done.
Even the little userbase they had in other regions seemed rather discouraged by the current gen, so I think they will do worse next gen, because many who still bought an Xbox this gen won't do so anymore for next gen.
If they want to increase their marketshare relative to current gen, Microsoft needs to offer something new that their competitors can't offer and it needs to be something consumers really, really want.
I'm always up for a surprise but I just don't see it happening. When it comes to hardware sales I see MS market share shrinking compared to this gen, but also because Microsoft will focus more on content and services that are platform agnostic.
Even the little userbase they had in other regions seemed rather discouraged by the current gen, so I think they will do worse next gen, because many who still bought an Xbox this gen won't do so anymore for next gen.
If they want to increase their marketshare relative to current gen, Microsoft needs to offer something new that their competitors can't offer and it needs to be something consumers really, really want.
I'm always up for a surprise but I just don't see it happening. When it comes to hardware sales I see MS market share shrinking compared to this gen, but also because Microsoft will focus more on content and services that are platform agnostic.
The PS3 sold around 90 million units. The Wii did about 100. Nintendo was in NO WAY dominant over Sony that generation and Sony kept selling systems easily long after interest in the Wii died and did so at a much higher price point. Have you ever seen a $99 PS3? Because I haven't.
Outsold, yes. But not the "Outsold you by 70-130 million units" margins that the Playstation had consistently been pulling off. And keep in mind Sony killed the PS3 VERY early compared to the PS1 and 2, because the thing was very expensive for them and very hard to cost reduce. Had they kept it on the market as they did the PS1 and 2, they would have outsold the Wii easily. Nintendo has never had those kinds of margins over the competition in the console space.
The PSP sold about 75 million units, and was the first attempt by Sony in that space. Hell, it was the first viable attempt ANY company had ever made in handheld land in 16 years. Nintendo had a monopoly in that space with no other competition since 1989 when the PSP launched. The fact it sold as well as it did was incredible.
The NES, SNES, and possibly N64 being cartridge based systems had a completely different business model than current consoles do. Because of the way making and ordering games worked, third parties could not afford to produce carts on the level that Nintendo themselves could, and Nintendo's first party titles had an unfair advantage. It's one of the reasons third parties ran from the cart based model as soon as a viable CD competitor became available. Apples and oranges here, my guy.
When assessing who's "winning", we'll have to start looking at different metrics than hardware sales. Sony is also getting into streaming which will affect their unit sales. Market share is a better metric.
Microsoft could certainly overtake Sony and Nintendo but they need a massive increase in first party quality as well as a way to increase adoption of their consoles in more territories. They also need to make it so that many Asian developed games do not become de facto PS4/Switch/PC games with no sign of an Xbox launch in sight. If they can accomplish all that, it's fair game.
What I do think is with BC the standard on both consoles, there'll be less incentive to switch.
They believe their console business is important, they are not leaving that space.
The xcloud/PC stuff I feel is a side-bet to make sure they stay relevant even if they lose the console horserace again.
You do not understand what a monopoly is, at all.
Nintendo had no monopoly, they simply released more popular products. Sony lost, big time, on PSP and Vita vs Nintendo and you can't just make up a fake 'Nintendo monopoly' to explain it while claiming Sony has a 'strong brand that carries it to always win'.
360 was Microsofts best selling plattform with 80 +× million units sold.
In the same time Sony sold 80 +× PS3s and 80+× PSPs, while Nintendo sold 100+× Wiis and 150 +× DSs. Just as a reminder.
In the same time Sony sold 80 +× PS3s and 80+× PSPs, while Nintendo sold 100+× Wiis and 150 +× DSs. Just as a reminder.
It is all important to them. They likely invest way more into Azure and cloud technology than the R&D of the next Xbox.
Is this poll illogical, or are people still voting with us unable to parse the results?
Yes.
I think it's impossible to see what will happen yet. Microsoft will have to work hard, for sure. The 360 was the console I've bought more games on than any other in my life, but I couldn't trust that Microsoft wouldn't fuck me over after all their anti-consumer movements before the X1 released. That pushed me to Sony. I had all systems the past two gens, but an X1 just seemed redundant after a couple years. Even though they've really recovered, and I don't have the same concerns about them anymore, I just don't see the point. I play Japanese games in Japanese, and Sony obviously has a much bigger number of Japanese developed titles. The only Microsoft exclusive I miss is Forza, and I can play that on my PC. Unless something changes drastically, I'm done with Microsoft consoles completely.
Yes.
I think it's impossible to see what will happen yet. Microsoft will have to work hard, for sure. The 360 was the console I've bought more games on than any other in my life, but I couldn't trust that Microsoft wouldn't fuck me over after all their anti-consumer movements before the X1 released. That pushed me to Sony. I had all systems the past two gens, but an X1 just seemed redundant after a couple years. Even though they've really recovered, and I don't have the same concerns about them anymore, I just don't see the point. I play Japanese games in Japanese, and Sony obviously has a much bigger number of Japanese developed titles. The only Microsoft exclusive I miss is Forza, and I can play that on my PC. Unless something changes drastically, I'm done with Microsoft consoles completely.
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As a PC player mainly I was under the assumption that MS were already the dominant force in the console space?
Am I wrong in that assertion? Or is it pretty even between all the companies?
All I ever seem to see in the UK at least is Xbox branding and the majority of people I know who are console gamers own an Xbox and Switch.
I do love Sony games though, I have to say their single player experiences seem to be top notch, I am personally going to pick up their next gen console for that reason alone (unless they decide to bring their games to PC.)
Am I wrong in that assertion? Or is it pretty even between all the companies?
All I ever seem to see in the UK at least is Xbox branding and the majority of people I know who are console gamers own an Xbox and Switch.
I do love Sony games though, I have to say their single player experiences seem to be top notch, I am personally going to pick up their next gen console for that reason alone (unless they decide to bring their games to PC.)
Sony will dominate yet again. I'm not trying to downplay Microsoft's success with the Xbox 360, but the main reason they were doing so well that gen is because Sony had multiple devastating mess ups, imo. Don't underestimate the PlayStation brand. Add to that the already announced BC on a userbase of nearly 90m players and the favorite of next gen is already clear.
I hope both do well though, because I like the games coming forth out of the competition. I loved how Sony pushed so many new IPs in the PS3 era.
I hope both do well though, because I like the games coming forth out of the competition. I loved how Sony pushed so many new IPs in the PS3 era.
nowhere close. MS is being outsold somewhere around 2:1 worldwide by Sony, and this gap will be larger than this by the time the generation concludes. Conservatively you're probably looking at a 120 million to 55 million unit gap between the two. It isn't close at ALL.
edit: Microsoft notoriously refuses to say much of anything about their console sales, but EA did-
As of the end of 2017 there were 30 million Xbox One's sold compared to 73 million PS4's. Sony is just about to cross the 100m unit line within the next few months. This one is very, very lopsided.
The UK is the only other market besides the US where the Xbox is viable.
We know by Todd Howard this time no one fucked up, Sony has a big advantage.
The only thing I know is that I don't trust Google supporting Stadia for more than a couple of years.
I see, that's actually quite shocking to me honestly, especially when during the 360 era MS seemed to have a huge lead in terms of sales.
Are Microsoft even concerned with hardware sales numbers these days though? Especially considering they are putting all of their games on PC and even Steam now.
Seems to be that their model is more about the software/subscription side of things.
