GameIndustry.Biz: PS5 accounts for 72% of US next-gen pre-orders

Karate Kid · Oct 8, 2020

am i taking crazy pills lol, 511 people surveyed without any source on the metrics come on lol.

if you ask 511 people on macrumors which phone they are going with obviosly they are going to choose iphone,
if you asked 511 people on playstationlifestyle you know the answer
if you asked 511 on trueacheivements you know the answer

There are states/cities/neighborhoods in the US where one brand dominates over the over, so this doesn't make any sense. This poll could have gone either way is what I'm saying.

E.T. · Oct 8, 2020

Roarschach said:
We should have a similar Resetera poll as well to compare.

We are not representative of general public

nib95 · Oct 8, 2020

That is very close in results to the recent IGN poll that had over 130,000 votes.

Bomi-Chan said:
i really wonder, what does ms have to do to get to the crowd?
i mean no harm, but the ps3 won at the end of the gen, despite sometimes seen are talked as a failure...
the ps5 hype is real, but i do not see any exclusives which make my mouth all watery.

Content is king. They need more incredible games, and ideally lots of them. But they know that themselves, hence they've acquired 15 studios in just the last 2 years. That's more studios in 2 years, than Sony own in total. The only issue is the games most of those studios are developing won't be releasing for some time, and at launch and to a degree for the first year, exclusives wise they have a lot less versus the competition, which is potentially affecting initial consumer interest or appeal.

As much as the hardware, services (Game Pass), great BC etc may be important or additive in nature (all areas the Series X is strong or leading in), for most consumers they are likely not the main draw, hence going back to quality of content likely being the primary consumer draw.

That's highlighted in the fact that Microsoft has actually already been leading in all of those areas since 2017 with the Xbox One X, but ultimately it has done little to turn the tide, if anything the competition (Nintendo and Sony) have only increased their leads in that time.

Patitoloco · Oct 8, 2020

orava said:
nba 2k31

framerate is bad

Eeyore · Oct 8, 2020

Jerm411 said:
Why does every thread like this have to devolve into veiled console warrior garbage....I swear....

Surprise no one has posted about FUD~!!!!! yet.

It's a poll, who gives a shit honestly lol...everyone enjoy what you want...

Because it's math and people are bashing it without even understanding what it is. So there are a few conclusions why people are this stubborn. One, they're just not very intelligent, I'd assume this isn't true. Two, they're just lazy and don't like being called out. Three, there are a few posters who do this in every thread on here and show consistent behavior.

I'm going with a combination of two and three.

OtterX · Oct 8, 2020

Pack it up, guys.

Xbox is DOOMED!

Simuly · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
Christ at the number of people who don't understand sampling and statistics. 511 is a good sample size.

We have about 227 people in this sample who tried to pre-order and expressed their demand for next gen consoles, which is a decent sample to work off. Out of that number we have relative demand of:

PS5 50%
XSX 29%
PS5 digital 14%
XSS 8%

Or 63%/37% in favour of PS5.

From a sample of 227 people with approximately 70 million xbox/playstation buyers as the population that's a confidence interval of 6%. Meaning if its a good sample we can be 95% sure the demand for the entire population would be between 57-69% for PS5 and 31-43% for XS. That's what we can tell from this.

Current sales ratio is 54/46 in the US between PS4 and XB1 so this suggests that PS5 is currently doing better than would be expected.

Well explained. OP I'd suggest adding this as a threadmark.

MouldyK · Oct 8, 2020

arsene_P5 said:
Well said.
I would prefer mods to change the thread title, because no matter how you slice it, it's wrong. The only correct part is that according to the survey PS is more popular and has more pre-orders.

But that's the Headline of the Article, so why would they change it?

Tobor · Oct 8, 2020

arsene_P5 said:
The data isn't even accurate when you just look at the PS5 consoles. 72% is the disc PS5. When we include the PS5 digital it's actually 82%. Already proofs you wrong without mentioning the other parts that are wrong with the thread title..
.

I do agree it should say 82%, the article author only used the disc edition in the title.

FullNelson · Oct 8, 2020

leecming said:
If you want to be pedantic, that's not correct.
Frequentist confidence intervals just say that if you repeat this sampling many times, 95% of these CI would contain the true parameter.
What you're talking about is Bayesian credibility.

You have my sword. I love that distinction, since the confidence intervals are one of the most misused stats out there.

DrDeckard · Oct 8, 2020

Apologies, I thought they were saying out of the 17% of the people who pre ordered, this is what they went with and here is the percentage of that low number.

ClickyCal' · Oct 8, 2020

sredgrin said:
I am surprised God of War was such a big factor, at least in comparison to say Horizon, which we saw much more footage of and was also a huge hit.

GoW was an even bigger hit and the sequel announced was always going to extremely hype a lot of people. It's at the level of when TLOU2 was revealed.

jsnepo · Oct 8, 2020

As expected. Playstation have always been the bigger brand compared to Xbox.

Macross · Oct 8, 2020

If there is one thing we can take from this thread, it is the fact that a large number of people posting on ERA are willing to make posts without actually knowing what they are saying is correct.

Eeyore · Oct 8, 2020

PunkSxE said:
lol imagine trusting polls in 2020

Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation

With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

www.reuters.com

And now someone that doesn't understand probability enters.

Hey if you played roulette and got black three times in a row would you dispute there is a 48% chance of landing on black?

Xevross · Oct 8, 2020

MouldyK said:
Yes, but the title is "72% of Preorders"

Not "72% of Preorders (as well as hopes and dreams)"

Like I have no doubt that the PS5 will sell super more than the Xbox Series will.

The title is misleading to be sure but to be fair to OP its the same as in the article, people just are so bad at understanding surveys and statistics. There is some interesting information to be learned from this if people actually want to give it a chance.

For example, we can also see that there was demand for approximately 182 total PS5 pre-orders in this sample of people, with 65 being successfully placed, so PS5 satisfied approximately 36% of pre-order demand. Compare that to 105 total xbox pre-order demand and only 30 placed, so only 29% of pre-order demand satisfied for next gen xbox.

This suggests Xbox Series is actually in slightly shorter supply relative to demand so far, but in terms of raw units PS5 is further from fulfilling demand.

RivalGT · Oct 8, 2020

I pre ordered 2 PS5 systems so I could have a good chance at getting one day 1. One from Amazon, and the other one directly from sony. I typically just go pick one up from a store and wait till midnight, but I'm not taking any chances with that this time.

ianpm31 · Oct 8, 2020

This is really not a surprise unless you're living in a bubble.

arsene_P5 · Oct 8, 2020

MouldyK said:
But that's the Headline of the Article, so why would they change it?

The headline isn't accurate either. That's the reason.

Tobor said:
I do agree it should say 82%, the article author only used the disc edition in the title.

The best title change would be using Xevross post and split.

noyram23 · Oct 8, 2020

dont read much into it

jsnepo said:
As expected. Playstation have always been the bigger brand compared to Xbox.

This is US though so it's really surprising, on rotw it's probably a bigger gap. That's why they're manufacturing a lot of PS5, there's no pre-order here in our country (SE Asia) but everyday stores are getting bombarded with 'where's the PS5 preorder' lol

Jade1962 · Oct 8, 2020

arsene_P5 said:
You guys know the 72% number comes from 15% of the ~500 people, which could preorder a console? Thus it could be a availability problem. Don't get me wrong, PS will definitely sell better, but I don't expect a bigger sale ratio than PS4 vs Xbox One.

Why do your personal sales expectations determine the validity of the poll?

Poll after poll, Amazon sales rankings, and social media metrics are all dismissed constantly on here because they don't align with this message board.

And for what when the sales numbers play out over the next year like these surveys suggest the only response will be "gamepass". So if the sales don't matter why all the constant downplaying of sales indicators?

tapedeck · Oct 8, 2020

Powerofthecloud said:
Lol the title is completely out of context.

This part is supply contrainted and doesn't necessarily tell the whole story but more towards availability:

Among them, 15% said they managed to successfully pre-order a next generation console. Within this group, 72% went for the disc edition of the PS5, 30% went for the Xbox Series X, 10% for the PS5 digital edition and 8% for the Xbox Series S.

This is the part that we should be looking at because it's basically a survey people who were not able to order which shows an approximate 60-40 split of brands:

29% of the respondents said they attempted to pre-order a next-gen console but were not able to do so. Among them, 58% were trying to pre-purchase a PS5 disc edition, 40% an Xbox Series X, 21% a digital edition of the PS5 and 11% an Xbox Series S.

Yep.

If you look at the poll in it's entirety it actually shows Xbox is gaining mindshare for next gen, not losing it like many people in here are stating.

Misterhbk · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
Christ at the number of people who don't understand sampling and statistics. 511 is a good sample size.

We have about 227 people in this sample who tried to pre-order and expressed their demand for next gen consoles, which is a decent sample to work off. Out of that number we have relative demand of:

PS5 50%
XSX 29%
PS5 digital 14%
XSS 8%

Or 63%/37% in favour of PS5.

From a sample of 227 people with approximately 70 million xbox/playstation buyers as the population that's a confidence interval of 6%. Meaning if its a good sample we can be 95% sure the demand for the entire population would be between 57-69% for PS5 and 31-43% for XS. That's what we can tell from this.

Current sales ratio is 54/46 in the US between PS4 and XB1 so this suggests that PS5 is currently doing better than would be expected.

I dont understand why this is so hard to believe for some people. Sony has pretty much always dominated hardware sales. They are going to do the same again.

And no this isn't MS doom and gloom. They will be just fine. But Sony will be the market leader and this split wouldn't be at all surprising.

Cyberclops · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
Christ at the number of people who don't understand sampling and statistics. 511 is a good sample size.

We have about 227 people in this sample who tried to pre-order and expressed their demand for next gen consoles, which is a decent sample to work off. Out of that number we have relative demand of:

PS5 50%
XSX 29%
PS5 digital 14%
XSS 8%

Or 63%/37% in favour of PS5.

From a sample of 227 people with approximately 70 million xbox/playstation buyers as the population that's a confidence interval of 6%. Meaning if its a good sample we can be 95% sure the demand for the entire population would be between 57-69% for PS5 and 31-43% for XS. That's what we can tell from this.

Current sales ratio is 54/46 in the US between PS4 and XB1 so this suggests that PS5 is currently doing better than would be expected.

Quoting this just to give it some visibility. (Are PS4 and XB1 sales really that close?)

The title of this article is straight up misleading though and is bringing too much unnecessary hostility to this thread.

Xeonidus · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
Christ at the number of people who don't understand sampling and statistics. 511 is a good sample size.

We have about 227 people in this sample who tried to pre-order and expressed their demand for next gen consoles, which is a decent sample to work off. Out of that number we have relative demand of:

PS5 50%
XSX 29%
PS5 digital 14%
XSS 8%

Or 63%/37% in favour of PS5.

From a sample of 227 people with approximately 70 million xbox/playstation buyers as the population that's a confidence interval of 6%. Meaning if its a good sample we can be 95% sure the demand for the entire population would be between 57-69% for PS5 and 31-43% for XS. That's what we can tell from this.

Current sales ratio is 54/46 in the US between PS4 and XB1 so this suggests that PS5 is currently doing better than would be expected.

Copy this to the OP. We wouldn't get that many posts downplaying the sample size. Actually, it probably wouldn't make a difference.

It's clear Sony have a lot of momentum coming into this generation. That's without revealing all of its cards. More to see I believe.

Altair · Oct 8, 2020

Tiago Rodrigues said:
They won't need to buy a new Xbox console to play Skyrim. Not if it's available on Gamepass, which will be.

Unless they plan on playing it on PC they very likely will.

Kalasai · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
There's no such thing as a usual sample size, you work out statistics based on the size of the sample that you have.

79 isn't but 227 that at least wanted to pre-order is a pretty decent sample size.

Yes it's just a raw number usually used. But the essential is the representativeness. In this case is OK since aller the 511 are gamer.

Dinjooh · Oct 8, 2020

Kuzko said:
am i taking crazy pills lol, 511 people surveyed without any source on the metrics come on lol.

if you ask 511 people on macrumors which phone they are going with obviosly they are going to choose iphone,
if you asked 511 people on playstationlifestyle you know the answer
if you asked 511 on trueacheivements you know the answer

There are states/cities/neighborhoods in the US where one brand dominates over the over, so this doesn't make any sense. This poll could have gone either way is what I'm saying.

Right. So your concern is whether or not VGM is a trustworthy pollster?

VGM - Market Research & Technology Development

VGM provides custom market research and consultancy to the Video Game industry.

www.vgm.co

I can only say that most of the companies we are all discussing is using their data, so seemingly they care enough about it to pay for it.

MouldyK · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
The title is misleading to be sure but to be fair to OP its the same as in the article, people just are so bad at understanding surveys and statistics. There is some interesting information to be learned from this if people actually want to give it a chance.

For example, we can also see that there was demand for approximately 182 total PS5 pre-orders in this sample of people, with 65 being successfully placed, so PS5 satisfied approximately 36% of pre-order demand. Compare that to 105 total xbox pre-order demand and only 30 placed, so only 29% of pre-order demand satisfied for next gen xbox.

This suggests Xbox Series is actually in slightly shorter supply relative to demand so far, but in terms of raw units PS5 is further from fulfilling demand.

Yeah, I mostly have confusion about the choice of the 72% Number seeing as it is based on one of the smallest Sample Sizes gathered in the Poll.

There's a lot of neat info in there, which is more interesting than the 72% number.

Eeyore said:
Are you a Republican? It's the only reason I can think of that makes you anemic to science/math.

TBH, I actually had to google what a Republican is/what side I should be on since I do not live in the US.

Macross · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
The title is misleading to be sure but to be fair to OP its the same as in the article, people just are so bad at understanding surveys and statistics. There is some interesting information to be learned from this if people actually want to give it a chance.

For example, we can also see that there was demand for approximately 182 total PS5 pre-orders in this sample of people, with 65 being successfully placed, so PS5 satisfied approximately 36% of pre-order demand. Compare that to 105 total xbox pre-order demand and only 30 placed, so only 29% of pre-order demand satisfied for next gen xbox.

This suggests Xbox Series is actually in slightly shorter supply relative to demand so far, but in terms of raw units PS5 is further from fulfilling demand.

Stop it, how dare you! Keep your takes to one sentence and base them on anything except actual facts!!!

i.e. Your name is Xevross and I am Macross, Xev is like Never so we know which of us to trust....

FIREKNIGHT2029 · Oct 8, 2020

Pretty much what I expected. I'm not surprised at all.

You can even see in social engagement that the hype for PS5 is quite a bit higher than Xbox's hype, even in the US.

The PS5's hype is quite insane. I don't think I've witnessed a console with this much hype before. Not even the PS2 had this much hype surrounding its release. The memes of girlfriends buying their boyfriends PS5 and the #PS5Secure memes I see floating around on Twitter shows that the PS5 has captured the general public's mindshare in a very profound way.

Eeyore · Oct 8, 2020

MouldyK said:
TBH, I actually had to google what a Republican is/what side I should be on since I do not live in the US.

Congratulations on not living in this shithole.

arsene_P5 · Oct 8, 2020

Jade1962 said:
Why do your personal sales expectations determine the validity of the poll?

It doesn't determine the validity of the pool. The pool is fine and was done with enough people. But the thread title is misleading and the rest was just my opinion. Besides pools can turn out to be not accurate.

HgS · Oct 8, 2020

The article title is jacked. At least if the point was the be informative versus inflammatory.

If you do the math the article is based on using their two sales groups, sample size and the breakdown by console you get 68.3% of successful preorders being for a PS5 and 31.67% for an Xbox Series X|S

For the unsuccessful group it was 61% PS5, 39% Series X|S. Overall interest regardless of success of preorders or not was 63% PS5 and 37% Series X|S.

In no case are you able to replicate the 72% PS5 which would be a 2.57 to 1 sales advantage. It's 2.15 in the worst case group and 1.7 for overall interest.

It's a weirdly reported study anyway. To the binary question of "were you successful in preordering a console or not" you get only 44% answering yes or no with no indication of what happened to the rest of the respondents. Refused to answer? Weren't able to verify?

It seems like an article was written purely because the 72% number attached to the PS5 would draw clicks.

MouldyK · Oct 8, 2020

Eeyore said:
Congratulations on not living in this shithole.

I live in the UK.

Same shit, different hole.

Cliff Steele · Oct 8, 2020

Noppie said:
So 15% of 511 were able to preorder and out of those, 72% chose PS5 disc. That's like 50 people lol

Is that even representative?

Absolutely ridiculous that this is a headline in any capacity. Era being Era I guess.

Karate Kid · Oct 8, 2020

Dinjooh said:
Right. So your concern is whether or not VGM is a trustworthy pollster?

VGM - Market Research & Technology Development

VGM provides custom market research and consultancy to the Video Game industry.

www.vgm.co

I can only say that most of the companies we are all discussing is using their data, so seemingly they care enough about it to pay for it.

first of all dont act like you know who VGM is lol. You just googled them and posted thier homepage.

What I'm saying is that they didn't say where the poll was posted or which population of the US the 511 are from or anything.

jsnepo · Oct 8, 2020

noyram23 said:
dont read much into it

This is US though so it's really surprising, on rotw it's probably a bigger gap. That's why they're manufacturing a lot of PS5, there's no pre-order here in our country (SE Asia) but everyday stores are getting bombarded with 'where's the PS5 preorder' lol

I'm actually referring just to the US.
PlayStation is still bigger there.

Cornbread78 · Oct 8, 2020

Tiago Rodrigues said:
They won't need to buy a new Xbox console to play Skyrim. Not if it's available on Gamepass, which will be.

I mean, consumers that usually only buy 1 console. Unless GP comes to Playstation, they will be forced to buy a new console to play it. As well as GoD of War, Uncharted/TLoU, FF, etc

Deleted member 22750 · Oct 8, 2020

if the title says preorders that means available preorders which means there were more PS5 available?

because both sold out.

so.......if both sold out than the rest of this article is a poll of 500 people. Which it should have just said.

Heropon_ · Oct 8, 2020

Xevross said:
Christ at the number of people who don't understand sampling and statistics. 511 is a good sample size.

We have about 227 people in this sample who tried to pre-order and expressed their demand for next gen consoles, which is a decent sample to work off. Out of that number we have relative demand of:

PS5 50%
XSX 29%
PS5 digital 14%
XSS 8%

Or 63%/37% in favour of PS5.

From a sample of 227 people with approximately 70 million xbox/playstation buyers as the population that's a confidence interval of 6%. Meaning if its a good sample we can be 95% sure the demand for the entire population would be between 57-69% for PS5 and 31-43% for XS. That's what we can tell from this.

Current sales ratio is 54/46 in the US between PS4 and XB1 so this suggests that PS5 is currently doing better than would be expected.

Thanks for this, that's a much better analysis that Gameindustry's.
That's really the worse confidence interval calculation though.
PS4+One is at about 55-60 millions sold in the US, with some people owning multiple, which means about 50 millions of owners I think.
However the study is on "US general gaming population" which is vague.

Xevross · Oct 8, 2020

MouldyK said:
Yeah, I mostly have confusion about the choice of the 72% Number seeing as it is based on one of the smallest Sample Sizes gathered in the Poll.

There's a lot of neat info in there, which is more interesting than the 72% number.

TBH, I actually had to google what a Republican is/what side I should be on since I do not live in the US.

For sure, its just chosen for headline clickbait.

Macross said:
Stop it, how dare you! Keep your takes to one sentence and base them on anything except actual facts!!!

i.e. Your name is Xevross and I am Macross, Xev is like Never so we know which of us to trust....

Never trust me then obviously!

Fizie · Oct 8, 2020

People are focusing way too much on sample size and the confidence interval. Sample selection is just as important.

Considering its based on a sample of early adopters, its probably not representative of the general gaming population. Not saying the study is bad, just that people are interpreting it incorrectly.

TylerDurden4321 · Oct 8, 2020

I think this will settle at 65-70% and it only makes sense, Sony's first party games were amazing during the last generations and teenagers in my country basically don't care about Xbox, that's how positive their brand is perceived.

I still don't think anything is lost for Microsoft. The teenagers I'm thinking about don't buy a lot of games and the hardcore enthusiasts might buy an Xbox too (or have a gaming PC). Sony needs game sales, but what if people just get Game Pass or play their games where they get the highest graphics performance (PC or XSX)... I could see Sony sell a lot less third party games this next generation than they did in the last(current) generation. Their first party games are not designed to make them the big profits, they are just the incentive to to tie oneself to their ecosystem.

NekoNeko · Oct 8, 2020

tapedeck said:
Yep.

If you look at the poll in it's entirety it actually shows Xbox is gaining mindshare for next gen, not losing it like many people in here are stating.

not really. this is an US poll, 60/40 sounds about how it was this gen.

get2sammyb · Oct 8, 2020

ianpm31 said:
This is really not a surprise unless you're living in a bubble.

With the greatest of respect to this forum, Era is the biggest bubble of them all!

Yerffej · Oct 8, 2020

get2sammyb said:
With the greatest of respect to this forum, Era is the biggest bubble of them all!

What? Noooooo

Patitoloco · Oct 8, 2020

I'm just so glad we got the outrage thread out of our systems so early in the morning, good job guys!

Charpunk · Oct 8, 2020

The sample size is lol.

tapedeck · Oct 8, 2020

NekoNeko said:
not really. this is an US poll, 60/40 sounds about how it was this gen.

You might want to Google US PS4/XB1 sales numbers.

hint: (it's not a 60/40 split)

GameIndustry.Biz: PS5 accounts for 72% of US next-gen pre-orders

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