Forbes: Destiny 2’s Google Stadia Population Has Dropped By More Than Half Since Launch

AtomicShroom · Jan 5, 2020

Snake Eater said:
I still can't wrap my head around the idea that they thought it would be smart to release a streaming service and still charge per game on top of the subscription

Not only that, but that the supposed main advantage of the paid tier is 4K over 1080p, yet the games don't even render in 4K. Once the free tier comes out, the subscription will be worthless (unless all the games somehow get actual 4K updates until then). It's mindboggling.

rokkerkory · Jan 5, 2020

Dunlop said:
Tech is totally there, it's quite amazing.

Everything else about the product is what needs work...

I doubt 'totally there' as promised with 4k gaming as many games are around 1X levels of pixel quality.

riotous · Jan 5, 2020

AtomicShroom said:
Not only that, but that the supposed main advantage of the paid tier is 4K over 1080p, yet the games don't even render in 4K. Once the free tier comes out, the subscription will be worthless (unless all the games somehow get actual 4K updates until then). It's mindboggling.

Most of the games render above 1080p (and some actually in native 4k or w/ 4k modes); but yeah it is a bit of a joke in general. Particularly since the main game they initially used to advertise Pro was Destiny 2 which runs at 1080p.

Sampson · Jan 5, 2020

criteriondog said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...s-dropped-by-more-than-half-since-launch/amp/

Stadia isn't doing so hot, and with it's most popular game featuring a declining playerbase by more than half it's population isn't good. Stadia Base is supposed to launch early this year, but there hasn't been any recent updates. Additionally, there hasn't been a Stadia Connect in ages and the lack of any new game announcements at The Game Awards is largely concerning. With the PS5 unveil event around the corner, and it releasing with the Xbox Series X this holiday, Stadia will have a very hard time standing on it's own. The PS5 and Xbox Series X will have new titles from all publishers and exclusives, while Stadia is having a difficult time getting

Stadia should have spent more time in the oven, and released when it had a compelling library with new and exclusive titles, with basic features at launch.

A dead player count/population isn't healthy. Other MP games are essentially dead on the platform. I think it's too late for Google to salvage Stadia at this point, especially with the new consoles coming out this year.

Ultimately, Google rushed this thing, and I don't see it surviving in the future. The new consoles will be all the talk, along with new titles from Nintendo, while Stadia might get a few ports? It's not looking good for Stadia's future, and I think Google is soon going to have to repurpose or salvage Stadia.

Nah, that's not how services work at all.

Compare Chrome v1 to today.

Wait until free Stadia launches, then see what happens

Sqrt · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Nah, that's not how services work at all.

Compare Chrome v1 to today.

Wait until free Stadia launches, then see what happens

Except, for a gaming platform to succeed you need continued support. Is not like a browser were you can make incremental updates until its good, a gaming platform needs to be good from a start so developers keep showing up.

rebelcrusader · Jan 5, 2020

Lonely1 said:
Except, for a gaming platform to succeed you need continued support. Is not like a browser were you can make incremental updates until its good, a gaming platform needs to be good from a start so developers keep showing up.

Chrome could (and did) have few users until the tech was very developed

game platforms can't do that and survive

just_myles · Jan 5, 2020

I heard the games are full retail. That true era? I think this is major deal breaker if true. Why pay a monthly fee on top of full retail when I can do it cheaper elsewhere 🤷🏿‍♂️.

ZeoVGM · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Nah, that's not how services work at all.

Compare Chrome v1 to today.

Wait until free Stadia launches, then see what happens

You can't remotely compare Chrome to Stadia.

bes.gen · Jan 5, 2020

just_myles said:
I heard the games are full retail. That true era? I think this is major deal breaker if true. Why pay a monthly fee on top of full retail when I can do it cheaper elsewhere 🤷🏿‍♂️.

not needing a console or gaming pc would be the draw, ( if everything else worked fine that is )

DLH · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Nah, that's not how services work at all.

Compare Chrome v1 to today.

Wait until free Stadia launches, then see what happens

Don't compare Chrome v1 to Chrome today. Compare Chrome v1 to the other browsers of its time. IE was terrible, Firefox was good, but not as good as it is now, and Opera was...just alright. Chrome always felt like it was moving web browsing forward, even though there was room to improve in the early stages.

Now compare Stadia to its peers. Can you really say that Stadia compares as well to other gaming options as Chrome v1 did to other browsers of its time?

Laughing Banana · Jan 5, 2020

U2NUMB said:
As an owner of Stadia who does enjoy the tech.. this right here is so important. Hell I own every damn game they offer on other platforms and If I could travel the save between platforms I would buy more on Stadia because if they close the door in a year or whenever I wont be out the entire time I spent in the game.

Cross play simply for the numbers in MP games to go up... they release their achievement system and within the first hour people on forums are trying to organize to try and get enough people into a Tomb Raider online game.. Cross play certainly would go a long ways to helping that problem.

I jumped into Stadia late.. only had it a couple weeks but I have been given 6 games.... if they keep up the pace of 2 games a month I may stay subbed. I have only bought one game and it was on a 60% sale...

They don't implement crossplay in Destiny 2 probably because it's hard to keep up the parity between Stadia and the other system, particularly PC, especially for PVP.

Meatwad · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Nah, that's not how services work at all.

Compare Chrome v1 to today.

Wait until free Stadia launches, then see what happens

Free users will have to actually buy Destiny, That is not going to help the game's playerbase lol

Sampson · Jan 5, 2020

Meatwad said:
Free users will have to actually buy Destiny, That is not going to help the game's playerbase lol

Where did they say this?

Lonely1 said:
Except, for a gaming platform to succeed you need continued support. Is not like a browser were you can make incremental updates until its good, a gaming platform needs to be good from a start so developers keep showing up.

Stadia isn't a traditional gaming platform. That's not how it works. The rules are completely different.

Once Stadia goes free, the customer acquisition cost goes to $0, which no console has ever had before. It's a completely different sport. To try to compare it to traditional platforms is just silly and ignorant.

Meatwad · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Where did they say this?

It is currently not available for free on the Stadia Store without a Sub. It's listed as Destiny 2 The Collection which comes bundled with paid expansions. There is no separate listing for vanilla Destiny 2

Sqrt · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Where did they say this?

Stadia isn't a traditional gaming platform. That's not how it works. The rules are completely different.

Once Stadia goes free, the customer acquisition cost goes to $0, which no console has ever had before. It's a completely different sport. To try to compare it to traditional platforms is just silly and ignorant.

The problem is not consumer adoption but developer and publisher adoption... what its silly is comparing it to chrome.

Sampson · Jan 5, 2020

Meatwad said:
It is currently not available for free on the Stadia Store without a Sub. It's listed as Destiny 2 The Collection which comes bundled with paid expansions. There is no separate listing for vanilla Destiny 2

OK, so you're just making a complete wild guess. Good to know.

Meatwad · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
OK, so you're just making a complete wild guess. Good to know.

OK, so you're just making a complete wild guess. Good to know.

Sampson · Jan 5, 2020

Meatwad said:
OK, so you're just making a complete wild guess. Good to know.

Destiny 2 is free to play on PC right now. It's free to play on Xbox, and PlayStation.

Why would it not be free to play on Stadia?

Lonely1 said:
The problem is not consumer adoption but developer and publisher adoption... what its silly is comparing it to chrome.

Developer adoption is based on consumer adoption, which could spike at any time.

It's like looking at iTunes back in 2007 and saying, "well not many people are downloading movies right now, movies studios are not going to release their movies digitally."

Sqrt · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Destiny 2 is free to play on PC right now. It's free to play on Xbox, and PlayStation.

Why would it not be free to play on Stadia?

Unlike PC, XBox or PS4, Google has to pay for the hardware and power to run the game and the bandwith to stream it.

Meatwad · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Destiny 2 is free to play on PC right now. It's free to play on Xbox, and PlayStation.

Why would it not be free to play on Stadia?

Because there is no listing for the F2P version of Destiny 2 currently on Stadia's store? The only version of Destiny 2 being offered is a bundle with all of the content and expansions which are not F2P. Google might add the vanilla F2P version of Destiny 2 to Stadia but that's not a given and it's not there now

James · Jan 5, 2020

Laughing Banana said:
Do you have the data about people playing for longer or is it just based on "feelings"?

Neither. I have observed that there are more players around in game lately.

Someone incorrectly stated that declining daily player count number show that my observations are wrong. What you quoted is me demonstrating that I can be correct about increased activity even with the decreasing daily player count.

I can't prove that I am right, but I am going to trust my eyes unless someone has actual contradictory data.

Sqrt · Jan 5, 2020

Sampson said:
Developer adoption is based on consumer adoption, which could spike at any time.

Why would consumer adoption spike when there's little software for it? And that's the catch 22 of all failed software platforms.

Sampson said:
It's like looking at iTunes back in 2007 and saying, "well not many people are downloading movies right now, movies studios are not going to release their movies digitally."

Uploading a video file to a server is magnitudes easier than porting software to a new platform, as evidenced in this thread:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/li...oes-for-google-stadia-game-developers.163140/

Laughing Banana · Jan 6, 2020

James said:
Neither. I have observed that there are more players around in game lately.

Someone incorrectly stated that declining daily player count number show that my observations are wrong. What you quoted is me demonstrating that I can be correct about increased activity even with the decreasing daily player count.

I can't prove that I am right, but I am going to trust my eyes unless someone has actual contradictory data.

Dude what, you're requesting people to give data to refute you but you can't give one of your own yourself.

And yes, conclusion based on the premise of "Well, I'm observing it!" is certainly meaning that you are reaching your conclusion based on your own anedoctal view, no hard data, and thus "feelings".

Absoludacrous · Jan 6, 2020

Lonely1 said:
Why would consumer adoption spike when there's little software for it? And that's the catch 22 of all failed software platforms.

Uploading a video file to a server is magnitudes easier than porting software to a new platform, es evidenced in this thread:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/li...oes-for-google-stadia-game-developers.163140/

You're arguing with the "Can we kill this Stadia meme?" guy.

At some point it's just not worth it.

James · Jan 6, 2020

Laughing Banana said:
Dude what, you're requesting people to give data to refute you but you can't give one of your own yourself.

And yes, conclusion based on the premise of "Well, I'm observing it!" is certainly meaning that you are reaching your conclusion based on your own anedoctal view, no hard data, and thus "feelings".

Everything you said there is wrong.

I am not asking for data. People claimed that shared numbers showed that I was wrong. I explained why that was not correct.

I gave all of the information needed to prove the point I was arguing, which is that shared numbers do not contradict my observations.

Observations are not the same as feelings.

Actually, you did get one thing right. My basis for thinking there are more people actually playing now is purely anecdotal. Still, though, that's not a matter of feelings.

It is generally incorrect to use quotation marks when paraphrasing.

Dunlop · Jan 6, 2020

Laughing Banana said:
They don't implement crossplay in Destiny 2 probably because it's hard to keep up the parity between Stadia and the other system, particularly PC, especially for PVP.

Bungie does not have cross play in Destiny for any system. It had nothing to do with Stadia

Dunlop · Jan 6, 2020

rokkerkory said:
I doubt 'totally there' as promised with 4k gaming as many games are around 1X levels of pixel quality.

I'm saying the technology to offer a great streaming experience is there, remove all of Phil Harrison's PR bullshit. Stadia on a chromecast is fantastic and Google should have clearly stated this was a beta and their primary platform would be the Chromecast.

It is the launch of a new platform which requires devs to use new tools for to convert their games. Look at the launch games for any console vs just a year into their life, the differences will always be large.

The question is will Google give devs any reason to put the needed time into this?

Falchion · Jan 6, 2020

That's especially awful since it doesn't have cross play and there wouldn't be enough high level players for some content.

cakely · Jan 6, 2020

Falchion said:
That's especially awful since it doesn't have cross play and there wouldn't be enough high level players for some content.

Again: Destiny 2 on Stadia has cross-save so your gear and light level carries over from the other platforms.

Bunkles · Jan 9, 2020

It was below 7,000 players yesterday. At what point is the population considered dead for such a game? That overall player count is a minor rounding error for Bungie.

Pryme · Jan 9, 2020

Dunlop said:
I'm saying the technology to offer a great streaming experience is there, remove all of Phil Harrison's PR bullshit. Stadia on a chromecast is fantastic and Google should have clearly stated this was a beta and their primary platform would be the Chromecast.

It is the launch of a new platform which requires devs to use new tools for to convert their games. Look at the launch games for any console vs just a year into their life, the differences will always be large.

The question is will Google give devs any reason to put the needed time into this?

It's less about Google and more about Sony and Microsoft. Stadia's major advantage was the earlier than competition launch.

If it takes too long to get really going, it'll spill into the PS5 and Xbox Series X launch hysteria. Those are also coming with renewed xCloud and PSNow hype. And that will severely damage Stadia.

riotous · Jan 9, 2020

All gamers should care about is if they are having trouble finding people to play with.

Bungie on the other hand, has little reason to care about that kind of player count.

So to some extent that can circle back to what gamers should care about, because if you are in a dead game from a company's perspective you might not get the updates/support/etc. you need. But for a game like Destiny with cross-save support Bungie kinda can't do that lol

Bojanglez · Jan 9, 2020

If Google / Bungie can find a way to allow the base Destiny 2 to be free to play when Stadia launches properly I think it could be massive for the game and Stadia as a platform.

Stadia has brought me back into Destiny 2 as I can snack on it at home or at work and not have to worry about boot/load/patch/copy times, it runs and plays great. So far I haven't had issues with the small player base as I'm largely playing single player. If I do want to get into Strikes and Raids then I'll just join an active stadia based clan I guess.

Eoin · Jan 9, 2020

Foorbits said:
It was below 7,000 players yesterday. At what point is the population considered dead for such a game? That overall player count is a minor rounding error for Bungie.

For Destiny 2 I think the point where this matters to gamers is where they log on, look for people to play with, and find nobody. According to what we hear in this topic, this so far hasn't been an issue for Resetera's Stadia owners. So, for now, Destiny 2 is probably fine (though it might be more common for anyone playing in awkward timezones).

I think the wider relevance of this is that Destiny 2 has, from Stadia's launch, been the online-focused game that everyone was guaranteed to have, so it's almost certainly the single most active game on the platform. If people are logging in to other games and having trouble finding players, the most common fallback game for them would probably be Destiny 2. Destiny 2 daily player counts in the thousands probably mean most other games have non-viable player counts.

Dunlop · Jan 9, 2020

Pryme said:
It's less about Google and more about Sony and Microsoft. Stadia's major advantage was the earlier than competition launch.

If it takes too long to get really going, it'll spill into the PS5 and Xbox Series X launch hysteria. Those are also coming with renewed xCloud and PSNow hype. And that will severely damage Stadia.

That was always going to happen, Google's big screw up was labelling this as a launch and not a Beta. Phil gave impossible expectations and their PR took a beating for it.

Concerning Destiny, I never have an issue queuing ever, but I do the "popular events". I still have yet to touch my Ps4Pro version since getting Stadia as the almost instant loading and 60fps makes the game 1000x more enjoyable for me.

At this point, Stadia is literally my Destiny box though, the free games are nice (Thumper is great!) but I don't really plan on buying anything else at. Was planning on Cyberpunk but I believe it is launching later than everything else so I will probably cave and pick up the ps4

riotous · Jan 9, 2020

Bojanglez said:
If Google / Bungie can find a way to allow the base Destiny 2 to be free to play when Stadia launches properly I think it could be massive for the game and Stadia as a platform.

Stadia has brought me back into Destiny 2 as I can snack on it at home or at work and not have to worry about boot/load/patch/copy times, it runs and plays great. So far I haven't had issues with the small player base as I'm largely playing single player. If I do want to get into Strikes and Raids then I'll just join an active stadia based clan I guess.

If Google let's free to play games on Stadia in general that would be a massive test of the feasibility of the popularity of game streaming.

It would also represent a massive cost. Whereas on other system F2P freeloaders are just not profitable*, they don't cost you anything. On a streaming platform an F2P freeloader is generating a loss for you essentially.

* except for on Xbox, since they require XBL Gold... so even MS, who isn't losing money if you play Fortnite on an Xbox One, still wants some guaranteed revenue out of you. How is Google going to justify letting people use their server farms for free?

Dunlop · Jan 9, 2020

riotous said:
If Google let's free to play games on Stadia in general that would be a massive test of the feasibility of the popularity of game streaming.

It would also represent a massive cost. Whereas on other system F2P freeloaders are just not profitable*, they don't cost you anything. On a streaming platform an F2P freeloader is generating a loss for you essentially.

* except for on Xbox, since they require XBL Gold... so even MS, who isn't losing money if you play Fortnite on an Xbox One, still wants some guaranteed revenue out of you. How is Google going to justify letting people use their server farms for free?

I think they would have to do the same as MS and make F2P only for Pro subscribers

OneBadMutha · Jan 9, 2020

Such a small sample size. Data skews easily when only a small amount of population exists from the start.

That said, how much is the drop off on other platforms. I assumed this was just a Destiny thing. Huge spike initially. Drops off until next content drop.

Edit: Nevermind. Just read the article. They did provide context. Surprised to see the other platforms hold their population so well.

riotous · Jan 9, 2020

Dunlop said:
I think they would have to do the same as MS and make F2P only for Pro subscribers

Yeah that's my assumption; if they do F2P at all, it will be for Pro subscribers.

But it's tricky; that can be controversial, as it kind of is on Xbox. Another thing for people to make fun of.

Something like Fortnite on Stadia "Free" would be INSANE to see... would really prove Google's investment.. because they'd have to be prepared for an influx of millions of players.. meaning millions of "instances" on the back-end distributed all over their regions. (less than the number of players of course, but would still likely be a huge influx all at once)

Destiny 2 would be a little less insane; less popular.. and has a direct path to a Pro membership as people might start playing and then "upgrade".. but still would be kinda crazy if they did that.

One thing is though the F2P game makers would have a big interest in Google doing that... another big possible revenue stream. Could see them agreeing to changing revenue splits or some other backend deal to get their games on a "free" streaming platform.

Bunkles · Jan 9, 2020

OneBadMutha said:
Such a small sample size. Data skews easily when only a small amount of population exists from the start.

That said, how much is the drop off on other platforms. I assumed this was just a Destiny thing. Huge spike initially. Drops off until next content drop.

Both PS4 and PC still well above 400k daily. No other platform took a >50% hit like the Stadia version did.

It's such a small sample size, like you said, so it could mean anything. But one thing it does mean, Stadia buyers aren't sticking around on D2 or seemingly any other game which has multi (RDR2 online is absolutely dead). So are they already dropping the platform completely? What does that mean for Stadia?

riotous · Jan 9, 2020

Another thing I've thought about (along with what I mentioned above):

- Ask for a higher revenue cut of MTX / battlepass sales through Stadia
- Allow Google to REQUIRE a "battle pass" or whatever paradigm a game has in order for it to be on Stadia Free

They could put Fortnite on Stadia; "This game requires either Stadia Pro, or a Battle Pass.. buy either here"

Wonder what Epic would think of those ideas (particularly the higher cut of revenue idea.)

Opens up a whole new world of players who don't have consoles, PCs capable of playing a modern FPS, or a desire to play on a phone while re-imbursing Google for running the game on their servers.

OneBadMutha · Jan 9, 2020

Foorbits said:
Both PS4 and PC still well above 400k daily. No other platform took a >50% hit like the Stadia version did.

It's such a small sample size, like you said, so it could mean anything. But one thing it does mean, Stadia buyers aren't sticking around on D2 or seemingly any other game which has multi (RDR2 online is absolutely dead). So are they already dropping the platform completely? What does that mean for Stadia?

Oh Stadia looks like it's in trouble for sure. My guess is the people who played it on Stadia day one did so to test it out. Then Stadia remains their backup plan for when they're traveling with a laptop, etc. Hard to imagine many who's a Destiny fan using Stadia as a primary platform.

Iron Eddie · Jan 9, 2020

I have yet seen any real commitment to in house studios (sure, they love to TALK about Jade Redmonds game), this whole thing has been pretty underwhelming.

Dunlop · Jan 9, 2020

Foorbits said:
Both PS4 and PC still well above 400k daily. No other platform took a >50% hit like the Stadia version did.

PS4 and PC users specifically purchased the game which implies they were interested it. It came with Stadia so initially most tried it out I would assume. Destiny is really shitty at telling players what to do in the game, so I would imagine a lot left out of sheer confusion.

Between game sales and currently 5 other free games for Stadia users I assume they are playing something else or not using the platform as much.

Bold One · Jan 9, 2020

I bet there are no cheaters on Stadia

What a paradise, an oasis, the Shangra-la of our times.

Deleted member 13645 · Jan 9, 2020

riotous said:
Yeah that's my assumption; if they do F2P at all, it will be for Pro subscribers.

But it's tricky; that can be controversial, as it kind of is on Xbox. Another thing for people to make fun of.

Something like Fortnite on Stadia "Free" would be INSANE to see... would really prove Google's investment.. because they'd have to be prepared for an influx of millions of players.. meaning millions of "instances" on the back-end distributed all over their regions. (less than the number of players of course, but would still likely be a huge influx all at once)

Destiny 2 would be a little less insane; less popular.. and has a direct path to a Pro membership as people might start playing and then "upgrade".. but still would be kinda crazy if they did that.

One thing is though the F2P game makers would have a big interest in Google doing that... another big possible revenue stream. Could see them agreeing to changing revenue splits or some other backend deal to get their games on a "free" streaming platform.

I don't think Fortnite would draw many players. It already has a mobile version to play on the go. Stadia's main draws are portability and not needing hardware — but nearly everyone has a smart phone so people aren't clamoring for a portable way to play Fortnite and would probably stick to their smartphones where they can avoid the latency and can still sync up a controller.

riotous · Jan 9, 2020

Tharp said:
I don't think Fortnite would draw many players. It already has a mobile version to play on the go. Stadia's main draws are portability and not needing hardware — but nearly everyone has a smart phone so people aren't clamoring for a portable way to play Fortnite and would probably stick to their smartphones where they can avoid the latency and can still sync up a controller.

Stadia doesn't even work over cellular networks yet... how is it's main draw portability?

Pryme · Jan 9, 2020

riotous said:
Something like Fortnite on Stadia "Free" would be INSANE to see... would really prove Google's investment.. because they'd have to be prepared for an influx of millions of players.. meaning millions of "instances" on the back-end distributed all over their regions. (less than the number of players of course, but would still likely be a huge influx all at once)

What 'millions of players'? Fortnite may well be the worst example, since it's crossplay and is supported across Mobile.

People can already play Fortnite for free on their way to work, in the parks, in the toilets, on the train etc. all natively on their mobile phones. And there's native controller support.

Mac users are a big target for Stadia since the Mac library is relatively sparse, but there's Fortnite there too.

Might want to pick a better example.

Pryme · Jan 9, 2020

riotous said:
Stadia doesn't even work over cellular networks yet... how is it's main draw portability?

1. It will
2. Wireless networks.

Nome · Jan 9, 2020

Foorbits said:
Both PS4 and PC still well above 400k daily. No other platform took a >50% hit like the Stadia version did.

It's such a small sample size, like you said, so it could mean anything. But one thing it does mean, Stadia buyers aren't sticking around on D2 or seemingly any other game which has multi (RDR2 online is absolutely dead). So are they already dropping the platform completely? What does that mean for Stadia?

If you believe Steamcharts, Steam peak CCU has dropped more than 50% since launch.

https://steamcharts.com/app/1085660#All

I don't know how Charlamagne.io pulls its unique player numbers, but maintaining ~450k DAU while dropping from ~300k to ~90k CCU seems pretty off. It would indicate a significant reduction in time played per user while maintaining daily engagement, which is unheard of.

Forbes: Destiny 2’s Google Stadia Population Has Dropped By More Than Half Since Launch

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