Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of January and February. Normally this is a simple month to month comparison as both January and February have 4 weeks, except every five to six years January becomes a 5 week month. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for February to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500
Weekly average +58%
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750
Weekly average +78%
3DS January: 175K / 4 = 43,750
3DS February: 263K / 4 = 65,750
Weekly average +50%
Notable Events in February
Xbox 360
Tax Returns
Final Fantasy XIII-2 [4 weeks]
SoulCalibur V [4 weeks]
Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning [3 weeks]
UFC Undisputed 3 [2 weeks]
PS3
Tax Returns
Twisted Metal [2 weeks] [221K]
Final Fantasy XIII-2 [4 weeks]
SoulCalibur V [4 weeks]
Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning [3 weeks]
UFC Undisputed 3 [2 weeks]
3DS
Tax Returns
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average +34%
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average +63%
3DS January: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average +63%
Notable Events in February
Xbox 360
Tax Returns
Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>70k]
PS3
Tax Returns
Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>130k]
3DS
Tax Returns
Fire Emblem: Awakening Special Blue 3DS bundle $199 [4 weeks]
Fire Emblem Awakening [4 weeks] [180K | Retail = 117K / Digital = 63K]
Code:
2014
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average +138%
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Weekly average +80%
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
Weekly average +89%
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
Weekly average -1%
3DS January: 97K / 4 = 24,250
3DS February: 153K / 4 = 38,250
Weekly average +58%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Plants vs Zombies: Garden Warfare [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns / Supply constrained: Demand > Supply
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Xbox 360
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
PS3
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
3DS
Tax Returns
Bravely Default [4 weeks] [>200K]
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Code:
2015
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Weekly average +84%
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
Weekly average +81%
3DS January: 74K / 4 = 18,500
3DS February: 395K / 4 = 98,750
Weekly average +434%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Order 1886 [2 weeks] [19XK]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
3DS
Tax Returns
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D Special Themed New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks]
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate Special Themed New 3DS XL $229 [3 weeks]
New Black New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks]
New Red New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks]
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D [3 weeks] [515K]
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [3 weeks] [>290K]
Code:
2016
Xbox One January: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Weekly average +89%
PS4 January: 229K / 4 = 57,250
PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
Weekly average +77%
3DS January: 70K / 4 = 17,500
3DS February: 176K / 4 = 44,000
Weekly average +151%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Name Your Game 500GB Bundle $349 [Forza 6/Tomb Raider/Gears UE/Rare Replay] [3 weeks]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [157K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<97K]
PS4
Tax Returns
Far Cry Primal 1TB bundle $399 [1 week]
Street Fighter V [2 weeks] [~207K]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [206K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<193K]
3DS
Tax Returns
Pokemon 20th Anniversary Edition New 3DS bundle $199 [1 week]
Fire Emblem Fates Special Themed New 3DS XL $199 [2 weeks]
Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright [2 weeks]
Fire Emblem Fates: Conquest [2 weeks]
Combined [>351K]
Code:
2017
Xbox One January: 158K / 4 = 39,500
Xbox One February: 215K / 4 = 53,750
Weekly average +36%
PS4 January: 211K / 4 = 52,750
PS4 February: 398K / 4 = 99,500
Weekly average +89%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15
Price Cut $50 February 17th - February 25th [9 days] 500GB $249 / 1TB $299
Forza Horizon 3 500GB bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Halo Wars 2: Ultimate Edition 1TB bundle $349 [2 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Halo Wars 2 [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15
PS4 500GB Price Cut $50 February 12th - February 25th [14 days] 500GB $249
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition Glacier White 500GB Bundle $299 [Walmart] [3 weeks]
Nioh [3 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Code:
2018
Switch January: 275K / 5 = 55,000
Switch February: 279K / 4 = 69,750
Weekly average +27%
Xbox One January: 235K / 5 = 47,000
Xbox One February: 310K / 4 = 77,500
Weekly average +65%
PS4 January: 254K / 5 = 50,800
PS4 February: 363K / 4 = 90,750
Weekly average +79%
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Price Cut $50 February 18th - March 3rd [14 days] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
PUBG with every Xbox One X February 18th - February 24th [7 days]
PUBG 1TB Bundle $299 [2 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
PS4
Tax Returns
GameStop Only: Trade in PS4/XB1/NSW and get up to $350 towards PS4 Pro. Offer valid 1/26/18 - 2/11/18 [9 days in January NPD / 8 days in February NPD]
Shadow of the Colossus [4 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
Code:
2019 January Weekly Averages
Switch: 284K / 4 = 71,000
PS4: 195K / 4 = 48,750
Xbox One: 101K / 4 = 25,250
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]
Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]
Anthem [2 weeks]
Crackdown 3 [3 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks]
Metro Exodus [3 weeks]
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns
Anthem [2 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks]
Metro Exodus [3 weeks]
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
Notes
From one of the slowest months of the year to the (usually) biggest non holiday month of the year, February is a massive improvement over January, almost doubling sales. This is thanks to tax returns.
For 2019 specifically, I'll post some potential spending affecting news.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/average-tax-refund-down-8-4-percent-in-first-filing-week.98550/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tax-refunds-down-17-percent-160031259.html
Basically, average tax refunds are down 17% from 2018. This will be interesting to see how it affects MOM and YOY comparisons for the industry, if it even gets affected at all.
Xbox
The Xbox One has had strong surges in February compared to the massive drops in January from December. February 2014 showed a massive turnaround from the weak sales in January. 2015 benefited from a late January price cut back to $349, and 2016 had the launch of the Name Your Game bundle where you could choose 1 of 4 different games at $349. 2017 was pretty weak with only a 36% increase despite the $50 price cut. The PS4 sold extremely well at the same time so it's possible that having less days at $249 is a reason for the under performance. The price cut also looked to have been a response to Sony's cut to begin with so there was little time for sales to be boosted. 2018 was by far the XB1's best performance with the launch of the Xbox One S 1TB PUBG bundle along with a $50 price cut down to $229 (500GB) and $249 (1TB) for 2 weeks and a special Xbox One X promotion that bundled PUBG with the purchase of a new system for 1 week.
2019 is a bit of wild month for Xbox. Coming off a disastrous 101K in January (only that high because of a late month price cut), they responded with a $100 price cut to the Fallout 76 One X bundles that lasts to the end of March, and for the last half of the month cut the price of the One S and other One X bundles by $50. This is in addition to the launch of Anthem, which may or not be a disappointment in sales. The question will be if all of that only sees the XB1 having an average weekly increase over January, or it actually boosts sales to more healthy numbers.
The Xbox One has so far averaged an increase of +71%, with a minimum of +36% (2017) and a maximum of +89% (2016).
Playstation
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. Sales actually fell in February 2014 compared to every other console seeing a boost. 2015 had a much more reasonable 81% increase and 2016 increased 76%. February 2017 was the first time the PS4 received a temporary price drop and it was to $249, timed along with the new date for tax returns under EITC and ACTC resulting in a +89% increase. 2018 had a GameStop trade in deal for the PS4 Pro which helped it to an increase of +79%.
2019 doesn't have much besides Anthem. No price promotions or deals, sales will pretty much be continued momentum.
The PS4 has so far averaged an increase of +81%, with a minimum of +77% (2015) and a maximum of +89% (2017). This excludes the 2014 drop.
Nintendo
Removing 2015 as that was the launch of the New 3DS XL the 3DS averaged an increase of +81%, with a minimum of +50% (2012) and a maximum of +151% (2016).
Switch is now the market leading console in sales for 2019 given its pretty comfortable lead in January and it should be expected that it performs like one this February. It even has a bundle including a free $35 eShop code. A pretty good deal for a system that continues to sell at launch price 2 years later.
Recap
February is the third strongest selling month of the year behind November and December. Massive, almost doubling sales from January unless January was a 5 week month.
The biggest February ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 753,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 535,000 in 2011.
The biggest February ever recorded in the 8th is the PS4 with 404,900 in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 398,000 in 2017.
