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Fall Box Office Prediction Contest (Venom, Fantastic Beasts, Aquaman)
- Thread starter hodayathink
- Start date
It is not really considered one of the major blockbusters this fall in terms of box-office expectations.
Amazing Spider Man opened on a Tuesday. If you took just its first three days (Tues-Thurs), it made $75m. If it opened on a Friday the weekend total probably would have been much higher.
I just assumed it was cuz the thread said fall, and it comes out in Winter. But I guess Aquaman rejects that rule. Potentially Spider-Man, and probably Mary Poppins will make more than some of these. Anyone thinking Venom will outgross Mary Poppins is crazy. Beloved franchise, Lin Manuel Miranda, and a movie catering to the usually neglected female market? It's going to clean up
Venoms trailer has 68 million views. That is one of the highest of any film this year. Its second trailer is over 30 mil, also one of the highest for trailer 2s this year.
VENOM DOMESTIC OW: $70.0M
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $60.0M
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $85.0M
RT
VENOM: 48%
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2: 50%
AQUAMAN: 73%
Performance:
VENOM: A combination of decent word of mouth and little competition leads to respectable weekly drops
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2: Tanks week 2
AQUAMAN: Strong word of mouth keeps it afloat against heavy competition. Doesn't perform as well as Wonder Woman, but is not a bomb by any means.
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $60.0M
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $85.0M
RT
VENOM: 48%
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2: 50%
AQUAMAN: 73%
Performance:
VENOM: A combination of decent word of mouth and little competition leads to respectable weekly drops
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2: Tanks week 2
AQUAMAN: Strong word of mouth keeps it afloat against heavy competition. Doesn't perform as well as Wonder Woman, but is not a bomb by any means.
I mean without question Venom is the most anticipated movie of the fall/winter as of right now. It generates the most buzz online by far in social media as well. Its not crazy to say Mary Poppins will gross less, because every indication we have currently is Venom will he the biggest movie of the fall.
I mean, if the metric you're going by is online views, then yeah.
a) There is no full trailer for Mary Poppins yet
b) When there is one, it will likely show less engagement because a large section of it's target market are people who may not flock to YouTube and Twitter
As I've pointed out before, I could be dead wrong about Venom. I think I was off base in my guess for it's initial opening weekend, but I think the movie looks truly on Fantastic 4/Green Lantern levels of terrible, and the word of mouth will be brutal. It may end up with the highest opening weekend (it has the benefit of very little competition in its release window, as opposed to Aquaman and Mary Poppins), but I don't think it will end up being the overall highest grossing film of the fall.
Could be wrong, but that's my guess!
VENOM DOMESTIC OW: $80 mil
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $55 mil
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $60 mil
Fantastic Beasts IMO is the one that is anyone's guess. I'm leaning toward it being a good film but a franchise low. Aquaman is looking like it will get a little bit of a Christmas push but ultimately fall short.
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $55 mil
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $60 mil
Fantastic Beasts IMO is the one that is anyone's guess. I'm leaning toward it being a good film but a franchise low. Aquaman is looking like it will get a little bit of a Christmas push but ultimately fall short.
OP
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VENOM DOMESTIC OW: $113.8M
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $68.0M
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $89.6M
There was a time where I was gonna make this entirely Sony/spider based, and do Spider-Verse and The Girl in the Spider's Web in addition to Venom, but decided that was gonna be too difficult.
FANTASTIC BEASTS 2 DOMESTIC OW: $68.0M
AQUAMAN DOMESTIC OW: $89.6M
There was a time where I was gonna make this entirely Sony/spider based, and do Spider-Verse and The Girl in the Spider's Web in addition to Venom, but decided that was gonna be too difficult.
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The person that finished in last place because they never made a prediction.
Those trailer numbers were really good!did y'all watch the trailers?
how any of you thought venom was going to make $100M+
And what makes you think Fantastic Beasts 2 is going to do $92m OW?did y'all watch the trailers?
how any of you thought venom was going to make $100M+
Shit I should have put down a prediction. I never thought Venom would do 100m opening. YouTube ain't an exact science.
So Venom ended up with around an $80 million opening weekend. Definitely much higher than I predicted, and a far cry from the 100+ mil some thought as well. Still, Sony must be ecstatic at this, I'll be curious to see how the second and third week drops are.
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$80M with a BvS/SS level RT isn't that bad. Probably would have cleared $100M if it was decently received.
Also, Sony's likely to make their money back on this just with the box office gross. So for right now at least, the Sony Universe of Marvel Characters is alive and well.
Edit: Also, the final number was $80,255,756. And there are 4 people who guessed 80 on the dot tied for first right now.
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$62 Million opening for Fantastic Beasts
https://variety.com/2018/film/news/fantastic-beasts-crimes-grindelwald-box-office-debut-1203031751/
Creatchee is in the lead at the moment being only $1 Million off with Venom and Scoring Fantastic Beasts spot on.
https://variety.com/2018/film/news/fantastic-beasts-crimes-grindelwald-box-office-debut-1203031751/
Creatchee is in the lead at the moment being only $1 Million off with Venom and Scoring Fantastic Beasts spot on.
Aquaman estimated numbers are at $67 Million at the moment.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4469&p=.htm
We have to wait for Actuals tomorrow before declaring it, but for being only around $2.5M off venom ($80.2M opening), basically being spot on with Fantastic Beasts ($62.1M opening) and being about $5M off the current estimated Aquaman number, I believe you are the winner for this Prediction Contest.
Other close contenders (20 points or less are):
Icemonk191 10+8+1 = 19
adrem007 5+1+5 = 11
Creatchee 1+0+11 = 12
NightOnyx 0+13+2 = 15
Sgt. Demblent: 2+9+3 = 14
AndyVirus 1+7+5 = 13
Nairume 2+10+2 = 14
jett 5+10+2 = 17
Korigama 0+8+7 = 15
StanleyStutters 2+0+5 = 7
Sorry for the rough maths, but unless Aquamans actuals change drastically, it'll be between these users for the overall winner.
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It's fun to look back and see how I did.
I wound up overestimating Venom because I thought it would be a big hit (which it was, just didn't open as high as I thought).
I thought Fantastic Beasts 2 was going to do bad (which it did) but I still wound up overestimating it.
Ironically the one I almost got perfectly right (Aquaman) was because I thought it was going to bomb and instead it's going to be a big hit. (It also surprised me by being a good movie too)
I guess my strategy going forward for predicting is to assume that every movie is gonna bomb.
Oh hey, for once I didn't do too badly!
Let's have a look:
I wasn't too far off with the opening weekend numbers.
But lol at the worldwide totals prediction. My apologies to Avi Arad.
I don't know why I low-balled Aquaman that much in here, since I've said in other threads that I thought 500 mil was the floor. I guess I was trying to play it safe, haha.
Can't believe I did as well as I did, was really worried I went too low on Beasts. Went back and forth on that a lot before making my guess.
Well, 16M over on Venom, 7M Under on Fantastic Beasts and 25M for a VERY under on Aquaman. I'll at least take getting Fantastic Beasts mostly right with that film underperforming. And considering the response to Beasts, the third one might be even lower unless they really shake things up on that series.
Also...
...Grinch is sitting at $253 Million at the moment, so it's the big Fall Winner (US at least) at present. People really should stop rewarding Illumination with their money. The only impressive thing about them is there consistant mediocrity between films.
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Sorry, didn't forget, just had to work today.
The earlier poster is right, StanleyStutters is the winner with only being about 8.2M off overall. PM me with what type of gift card you want.
I'll put the entire list in a spoiler so everyone can see how they did:
The earlier poster is right, StanleyStutters is the winner with only being about 8.2M off overall. PM me with what type of gift card you want.
I'll put the entire list in a spoiler so everyone can see how they did:
Code:
Name Venom OW FB2 OW Aquaman OW Total Score
---- -------- ------ ---------- -----------
StanleyStutters 77.8 62.6 72.7 8.192652
Creatchee 81 62 78 11.507348
adrem007 74.7 63.2 61.5 12.492652
AndyVirus 81.3 68.9 72.5 12.88114
Nairume 82 72.5 69 13.68114
Sgt. Demblant 82 71 64 13.98114
Zombine 80 55 60 14.81886
Korigama 80 70 60 15.492652
NightOnyx 80 75 65 15.492652
jett 85 72 69 16.18114
Icemonk191 90 70.5 68 18.68114
super anime man 64 78 73 75 20.692652
SpecX 68 55 63 23.81886
DarkLordMalik 88 77 66 23.98114
kurahador 85 76 60 25.98114
PhazonBlonde 76.4 69.3 52.1 26.292652
Walter White Walker 70 75 64 26.492652
Tambini 80 82 74 26.692652
Cantaim 75.3 81.4 70.2 26.992652
Playco Armboy 75 85 68 28.692652
Sephzilla 81 85 62 28.98114
jon bones 98.2 65.3 76.1 29.78114
The Adder 70 60 85 30.01886
ContractHolder 85 85 70 30.18114
Androidsleeps 79 75 49 32.492652
Pluto 88 80 60 32.98114
Anthony Mooch 59 72 63 35.492652
charloselsenor 83 78 85 36.18114
Cheebo 113 61 65 36.307348
Masozi 71 67.5 90 37.192652
Mr. Snuffleupagus 47 63 63 38.492652
Grunge_Hamster 52 72 68 38.692652
Run_64bit 54 69 61 39.492652
Dr Doom 67 86 70 39.692652
Shugga 65 80 60 40.492652
HeartlessNobody2134 60 80 70 40.692652
mjc 58 81.25 68 41.942652
Hokahey 52.3 73.6 64.6 42.192652
CloseTalker 45 68 65 43.492652
Dobby 62 77 55.3 45.192652
SoundCheck 50 70.5 75.5 46.692652
dosh 45.3 72.5 65.4 47.292652
KillstealWolf 96 55 43 47.307348
AAK 49 80 67 49.492652
Sega Dreamcast 60 70 89 49.692652
clay_ghost 92 80 47 49.98114
Chaos Legion 105 75 80 50.18114
Rvaan 110.5 65 85 50.68114
Ocean Bones 105.5 70.5 85.5 51.68114
overcast 66.7 89.2 55.3 52.692652
shira 55 92 67 55.492652
BiggestGeekEver 121.7 58.9 83.9 61.207348
hodayathink 113.8 68 89.6 61.58114
AnotherDayAnotherDollar 118 82.3 71.7 62.18114
hateradio 53 78 45 65.492652
Gonzalez 81 111 51 65.98114
shaneo632 52 89 56 66.492652
PhoncipleBone 124.3 68.9 84.6 67.98114
kswiston 126 68 85 69.18114
Medalion 90 110 55 69.98114
SharkJohnson 42.5 80 53 69.992652
SSJDio 112 101 69 72.18114
Kenzodielocke 63 72 116.844114 76.536766
Laserdisk 40 54.5 35.5 79.81886
Gundam 70 94 107 81.692652
Jessie 38 69 103 84.692652
Nitemare_zero 26 56 42 85.81886
Violence Jack 58.1 125.1 65.1 87.392652
Jsunu 39 102 55 93.492652
Biggersmaller 150 50 50 99.307348
Looking through this one, and think may be my favorite post... because looking likely that Venom will easily outgross MAry Poppins