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The biggest difference is that people like Biden, the race has been incredibly consistent, he's polling better and constantly above or flirting with 50%, and there are far less undecideds. People's minds are made up, which is a stark contrast to Clinton hanging out in the mid 40% range with erratic movements in polling throughout the race and a very high level of undecideds.
Also doesn't hurt that so far turnout is smashing 2016 numbers. Biden in the primaries showed people were actually excited to vote for him.
State level polling also has apparently been addressed since 2016. 2018 saw massive improvements in accuracy due to them accounting for education.
Im not sure about the voter turnout thing. Im worried alot of democrats dont want to stand in line and may not mail in either.
Thays kinds my only worry here.
This time in 2016, there were like under 2 million votes. We're now at over 10 million.
Also suppression efforts have arguably had the opposite effect. Wisconsin primary voters turned out in droves in the wake of GOP suppression efforts. Georgia just broke records today. People are fired up and aren't letting long lines or other issues get in the way of their votes.
Some states are already near or over 25% of their total 2016 vote total.
It was 85% on the same date in 2016, but the election was the 8th of November that year rather than the 3rd, so we are further along here than the 12th of october in 2016
is this mostly mail in though?? Im worried about walk in only deciding its too dangerous and too late.
Im loving these numbers tho
It's mail in and in-person early. Election Day voting may somewhat favor the GOP, but it'll be a big hole to climb out of at this rate.
I'm Canadian, so forgive my ignorance. Are all these mail-in ballots counted before, starting at, or after election night ?
I assume that if they're counted starting on election night, we're likely not going to know who the winner is until at the very least a few days later ?
Thanks
I assume that if they're counted starting on election night, we're likely not going to know who the winner is until at the very least a few days later ?
Thanks
I asked this in the California Proposition thread, but wanted to ask here, too:
Can one person drop off multiple ballots in a box?
My Dad will be dropping off all of our ballots on his way back home tomorrow, but not sure if that's okay.
Can one person drop off multiple ballots in a box?
My Dad will be dropping off all of our ballots on his way back home tomorrow, but not sure if that's okay.
Yup. Some states can start preparing them (basically open them and prepare for counting), but not count them. Some can count 24 hours before, 3 days, as they get them, it depends!
It's possible, but is still considered a stretch. It has been closer than usual the last few elections. Notably Obama 2008 and Clinton 2016. Both within 5 points and change.
It's possible to know the presumptive winner on election night. If Florida is called early for Biden (and Florida usually counts really fast) then you can assume Biden won.
Those ~15 million unaffiliated and minor, who are they voting for? There are candidates other than Trump and Biden?!
Its counting what the voter is registered as, not who they are voting for
Cautiously optimistic...
I'll be very interested in seeing who these early voters break for.
I honestly don't know how turnout will end up. Is polling showing a large turnout ? We have massive early/mail-in voting not because of Trump but because of the pandemic. The ones voting early are democrats who overall are taking Covid seriously enough to vote early. I'm more concerned how many of those mail-in voting were already planning on voting and are just doing it early. It should make voting on Election Day easier which should help turnout though
The only thing we know for certain is the early voting and mail in are going to be well beyond record turnout.
In person....it's going to be depressed, just how much is the wild card and how will it affect D/R?
Did my part in AZ via early ballot last night, found an official drop box on the website from the ballot paperwork (because don't trust fucking Republicans and their fake boxes like CA) and turned in with my dad and brother.
Here's hoping we can get AZ.
Here's hoping we can get AZ.
Voting in an Austin suburb. Poll opened at 7. Got here at seven. The wait has been an hour and a half so far. Might have about 20 more minutes to get to the front
There's always other candidates - the Libertarian Party and Green Party always run, and there are other candidates that are mostly jokes, who aren't really on the ballot anywhere, and which nobody will ever vote for.
That being said, the party counts are actually just numbers of voters registered with that respective party and not an indicator of who those people voted for.
We are up to 75 million mail ballots requested. As long as states are reporting and counting the ballots we could hit 100 million before November 3rd when including early votes
I wonder if there will be a big ripple effect of people voting for the first time here.
Anecdotally, everyone who voted with me during the 2008 elections have stayed generally active in voting. Is it a case of once you've done it once, it's no longer a headache inducing unknown and so you're more willing to continue? Or are there a large contingency of people who vote once or twice and move on?
Anecdotally, everyone who voted with me during the 2008 elections have stayed generally active in voting. Is it a case of once you've done it once, it's no longer a headache inducing unknown and so you're more willing to continue? Or are there a large contingency of people who vote once or twice and move on?
Well tons of people vote in presidential elections and no other time.
Its bananas. The number will keep jumping up exponentially as more massive states begin in person early voting over the next week. I can't wait to see what overall voter participation ends up being.
OP
OP
If you look at the % of vote from 2016 it gives a hint to how big it might be
A bunch of states currently have early in-person voting and they're all breaking records.
Disenfranchising people who all show up for one day at one polling place = EZ
Disenfranchising people who are so stressed about the election they show up or mail in ballots a month early - lots of moving parts.
No one should be naive enough by now to assume that there won't be closures, malfunctions, crowding, and ballot tossing that affects thousands of voters in each state. However, voters turning out in record numbers, as early as possible, makes it far more difficult for the *wink wink, nudge nudge* kind of disenfranchisement that the GOP has grown accustomed to.
Cool, Palm Beach County received my ballot on September 29th as well but, they don't change the status to counted until after election day, but they will state if there is any error on the ballot when it's received. I don't see any error messages, so I should be good to go.
Gonna vote next week in Texas once tax season is over and I have free time again - couldn't be more excited
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