During this crisis, it make sense for publishers to release scheduled games digitally and postpone physical copies till later.

[s0l0kill]

Yeah, I am sure they're retailer partners would be thrilled to stock the PS5 and other games in the future.

They all rely on each other and need to play ball. Its why digital only isn't going to happen anytime soon

Click to shrink...

Are you seriously thinking any shop won't stock the PS5 because they went and sold a game digital early?, you're telling me that you seriously consider electronic stores NOT stocking a major console which is going to sell like hotcakes, because they released a digital game in a pandemic situation. really.

 

[Lobster Roll]

I get it for people in countries with poor internet infrastructure, but elsewhere, it's funny to see folks sweating it out over whether or not their physical edition will show up on time in the mail or whether or not they can grab their copy from their local whatever-store when I just go ahead and click "preload", go to bed, and play it in the morning. But no, they should just release the games at the same time, unless there are logistical nightmare situations like a pandemic that force the issue and make physical copies hit the street early. Release-date begging for digital early releases is just weird.

 

[ClickyCal']

I don't know. They may be hoping that the recession is short-lived. If it appears that it will last for years, then I'm sure they will decide to release anyway because sitting on such a large game for multiple years would be absurd.

Click to shrink...

The 08 recession on record is considered to be 18 months, and unless a vaccine comes out this or next month, this recession will last longer.

 

[Stat]

Are you seriously thinking any shop won't stock the PS5 because they went and sold a game digital early?, you're telling me that you seriously consider electronic stores NOT stocking a major console which is going to sell like hotcakes, because they released a digital game in a pandemic situation. really.

Click to shrink...

And 6 months down the line, they maybe punish Sony a little bit and offer Microsoft flyer space.
Maybe they don't really give them the shelf space to put a ton of stuff there. Maybe they give Xbox more endcaps. Sony wants to run a special promo in-store? Sorry, we can't accommodate.

Maybe Sony says "Hey, we want shelf space for both the PS5 + PS4 + a special edition PS5" and Walmart says no. The retailers don't go to manufacturers. The manufacturers go to retailers to sell in their products.

Spoken like someone who has never worked in marketing.

 

[Deleted member 64804]

I don't know. They may be hoping that the recession is short-lived. If it appears that it will last for years, then I'm sure they will decide to release anyway because sitting on such a large game for multiple years would be absurd.

Click to shrink...

I'm genuinely wondering as I don't have any knowledge on this - but has a recession ever lasted less than a year?

 

[faceless]

people keep talking about movies, but home releases of movies have largely been digital 1-3 weeks before physical for a few years now.

 

[Leo-Tyrant]

I cant even keep my work calls online most of the time because of how shitty the entire network infraestructure has become. I cant fathom the idea of everyone downloading 150 gig games ON TOP of their entire families regular streaming, all at ONCE.

I don't know. This is a global crisis, we should all make concessions. Naughty Dog also crunched the numbers and decided against a digital only approach.

 

[Spartacris]

NO. Thats a big fuck you to everyone that only buys phisical. And those pie charts are misleading since the digital section includes DLC.

Click to shrink...

Nah. Different distribution practices can have different release dates. Movies do it all the time. Just buy it when it releases on your preferred format. Problem solved. What you say sounds petty.

 

[Deleted member 64804]

And 6 months down the line, they maybe punish Sony a little bit and offer Microsoft flyer space.
Maybe they don't really give them the shelf space to put a ton of stuff there. Maybe they give Xbox more endcaps. Sony wants to run a special promo in-store? Sorry, we can't accommodate.

Maybe Sony says "Hey, we want shelf space for both the PS5 + PS4 + a special edition PS5" and Walmart says no. The retailers don't go to manufacturers. The manufacturers go to retailers to sell in their products.

Spoken like someone who has never worked in marketing.

Click to shrink...

And you believe a situation like this would result from a releasing a game on its projected release date digitally during a pandemic? How big of a money maker for these stores is Last of Us projected to be?

 

[ClickyCal']

I cant even keep my work calls online most of the time because of how shitty the entire network infraestructure has become. I cant fathom the idea of everyone downloading 150 gig games ON TOP of their entire families regular streaming, all at ONCE.

I don't know. This is a global crisis, we should all make concessions. Naughty Dog also crunched the numbers and decided against a digital only approach.

Click to shrink...

Well preload has been a thing for a few years for that exact reason.

 

[Ænima]

Nah. Different distribution practices can have different release dates. Movies do it all the time. Just buy it when it releases on your preferred format. Problem solved. What you say sounds petty.

Click to shrink...

Movies usually realase 1st on theaters. Videogames, has always tried to release simultaneous, with exceptions to small indie tittles that only release digital.
With the spoiler culture, releasing only on one format would be, like i said, a big fuck you to physical buyers. Especially to such a massive tittle like TLOU2.

If they having trouble with logistics, they did the right move to just delay it to a later date.

 

[Deleted member 56752]

Nah man. I would rather they release all at once. I don't wanna see a spoiler from a dude in Czech Republic

 

[Gotdatmoney]

This is the thing. There is argument that if they wanted to push console games to digital now would be the time to do it.

Click to shrink...

You can only push users to buy digital organically. Users that either do not want to or simply do not have the capability to buy digitally are not going to magically do so now.

Since we're basically in unchartered waters - going off of past numbers seems a little flawed. The other thing I think about is that the game gains more relevance during Covid-19 - the idea that this would hurt the game market wise feels like the opposite of the truth. There's a reason why people have been watching Outbreak and Contagion on Netflix in record numbers. There's a reason people listen to sad songs when they're sad. As fucked up as it may be the virus probably helps the game. I'm just not so certain this is as clear cut as people are making it out to be. For example most of my friends are completely casual gamers and even though I'm on a video game forum I'm pretty casual too - they all bought used consoles because now they're stuck inside for months. And then I'm wondering when there will truly be an ideal time to release since most people are predicting waves. I respect the decision just seems a little less obvious to me.

Click to shrink...

Like I originally said, there is more to a game's release than literally just releasing the game to the public. This is especially when you're talking about massive AAA production. It's not as easy as "more people home = more users we could potentially have thus release it". You have whole marketing and roll out campaigns and logistics that get totally thrown out the window when people literally are on order to not leave their house unless for essential needs. Like, this isn't particularly difficult to understand. Even if you "think" the virus helps the game, you would be gambling on decades of experience and market data rolling out games that point to delay versus maybe hoping this helps you based on no data to ascertain risk. On what was sure to be an extremely extensive and expensive roll out plan, this makes 0 sense.

 

[supernormal]

I work in an adjacent business (not gaming but I deal with releasing media products - both digital and physical) and we've delayed a ton of releases. It's not all about literally getting the product in consumers hands. That's obviously possible through digital. There are other considerations around the current extraordinary circumstances. How does having 100% of your massive team working from home impact the next few months and the weeks/months following the launch of the product? How does the current climate fuck up your press rollout? Your advertising/media plan? Do consumers even have disposable income at the moment to be buying your game in the numbers you expected? Yes, your physical presence. Getting games in stores/supermarkets etc is about a lot more than just selling those copies. It's about mindshare. About having your product on shelves and the posters in windows being seen by thousands of people walking in and out of stores. You get one shot at a release and release week is absolutely huge in terms of your sales. I can completely understand why Sony would want to delay their biggest software launch of the year - maybe of the generation - to a time when it all just makes more sense. You can't simplify it by saying 'well they can just deliver it digitally'. They could but... is that what the team imagined when they spend x amount of years of their lives planning this release? Is that what Sony want when they've spent how ever many millions of dollars on making the thing and marketing it?

Click to shrink...

This so much. Thank you. The whole thing was planned to be an event and wouldn't land the same to just have release digital in the middle of this. It's my most anticipated game ever, but I totally understand them.

 

[Stat]

And you believe a situation like this would result from a releasing a game on its projected release date digitally during a pandemic? How big of a money maker for these stores is Last of Us projected to be?

Click to shrink...

I meant the situation exists right now with the TLOU2...
Sony decided not to do it.

And you don't want to be petty either.

 

[youwei]

in my opinion ,

streetbroken physical copy problem will be always there until in the new future that everything will go digital as people will cut costs everywhere

some people will cancel their physical pre-orders and go digital and its not fair to the small retailer/own business that earns little profit

 

[Stat]

I work in an adjacent business (not gaming but I deal with releasing media products - both digital and physical) and we've delayed a ton of releases. It's not all about literally getting the product in consumers hands. That's obviously possible through digital. There are other considerations around the current extraordinary circumstances. How does having 100% of your massive team working from home impact the next few months and the weeks/months following the launch of the product? How does the current climate fuck up your press rollout? Your advertising/media plan? Do consumers even have disposable income at the moment to be buying your game in the numbers you expected? Yes, your physical presence. Getting games in stores/supermarkets etc is about a lot more than just selling those copies. It's about mindshare. About having your product on shelves and the posters in windows being seen by thousands of people walking in and out of stores. You get one shot at a release and release week is absolutely huge in terms of your sales. I can completely understand why Sony would want to delay their biggest software launch of the year - maybe of the generation - to a time when it all just makes more sense. You can't simplify it by saying 'well they can just deliver it digitally'. They could but... is that what the team imagined when they spend x amount of years of their lives planning this release? Is that what Sony want when they've spent how ever many millions of dollars on making the thing and marketing it?

Click to shrink...

This post should be in the Marked Posts feature for being 100% accurate.

Right now, people don't really have a lot of disposable income. They aren't really consuming media the way they normally would. There's no marketing plan that makes this a huge launch.

 

[WackoWambo]

The 08 recession on record is considered to be 18 months, and unless a vaccine comes out this or next month, this recession will last longer.

Click to shrink...

What is going to come once there is a vaccine is not a recession, this is going to be a depression.

 

[Deleted member 64804]

You can only push users to buy digital organically. Users that either do not want to or simply do not have the capability to buy digitally are not going to magically do so now.



Like I originally said, there is more to a game's release than literally just releasing the game to the public. This is especially when you're talking about massive AAA production. It's not as easy as "more people home = more users we could potentially have thus release it". You have whole marketing and roll out campaigns and logistics that get totally thrown out the window when people literally are on order to not leave their house unless for essential needs. Like, this isn't particularly difficult to understand. Even if you "think" the virus helps the game, you would be gambling on decades of experience and market data rolling out games that point to delay versus maybe hoping this helps you based on no data to ascertain risk. On what was sure to be an extremely extensive and expensive roll out plan, this makes 0 sense.

Click to shrink...

Im sure they had an extensive and expensive roll out plan - this completely changes that regardless is my point. What is the expectation here that things will go back to normal after this fairly fast? At what point does it become more of a loss to sit on the game than release it? I work in an entertainment industry which is also going through a version of this and people have different ideas on what to do. I think the other users suggestion of waiting to see the data on FF7R would be the best indicator in this situation on how to move forward.

EDIT: Just to add on to this it's seemed for a while that physical media in most scenarios has been on a trend towards being phased out - with most entertainment mediums. I know PC games are largely digital now but consoles seem slower to adopt it. The streaming services are dominating network TV. Look I like having physical media as much as the next guy - I have collected plenty of criterion Blu-rays myself but they're essentially worthless nowadays. Seems like the general trend is toward digital either way.

 

[ClickyCal']

What is going to come once there is a vaccine is not a recession, this is going to be a depression.

Click to shrink...

I'd say a little early and drastic to make that claim.

 

[Deleted member 45414]

Yeah sure, if you want their servers to explode.

Thry're going to delay the games, because they want to sell them in prime conditions if possible, and if that's a few months from now or longer, they'll wait...

 

[Jersa]

As a consumer, do I wish they would do this? Absolutely. Recognizing that they have agreements in place with brick and mortar stores and pursuing the short-term sale would fuck over those standing relationships makes me say no.

 

[texhnolyze]

Physical still accounts for a big part of sales at launch (50% give or take), but that's because people have the option to buy physical. Does that mean that if that option is taken, people would just stop buying games at all? Would games lost all possible physical sales, or some/most of them will just switch to digital?

I partly understand the concerns with internet speed. I live in a 3rd world country with 20mbps internet and have no problem with PC gaming that's 100% digital. So I dunno, I can't imagine if it's any worse than that in the main markets of video games (NA/EU).

 

[ClickyCal']

Yeah sure, if you want their servers to explode.

Thry're going to delay the games, because they want to sell them in prime conditions if possible, and if that's a few months from now or longer, they'll wait...

Click to shrink...

I mean digital is already the majority and that's why preloading exists. If they mean recession, that isn't going away for at least close to two years at best. Doubt they want to delay that long.

 

[WackoWambo]

I'd say a little early and drastic to make that claim.

Click to shrink...

I know this isn't the forum for this type of conversation, so I will keep it brief.

The US Federal Reserve and Treasury are essentially enacting what is called "Modern Monetary Theory". Likely we will see negative interest rates as well. The consequences of these actions are irreversible and not well understood. (Lookup IMF papers on negative interest rates, we literally do not know the consequences.)

The corporate debt situation in America is analogous to the 2008 Mortgage Backed Securities, except this time the US government is propping up the market by using it's money printer at full blast. However, this still cannot last. These highly levered firms with no real output for 3-6 months (which make no mistake we will be locked down at least until June) will be devastated. The Fed may bail out these companies, but the effects of having no real output while being propped by the government will be shattering. When, not if, but when these companies cannot keep up their debt payments, or when the ratings agencies decide to downgrade the corporate bonds, many 30-50 year olds will be screwed.

Many of the "automatic" investing that is done in 401k's and IRA's is into these very risky corporate bonds. Generally bonds are inversely related to stock prices, making them a safe investment. But these investing products weren't designed for pandemics.

Additionally, 5% of the entire labor force in the US was laid off in the past two weeks (source: US Jobless claims). That has never happened.

Inflation will catch up with America once the immediate crisis is gone within 6-12 months, and we will have to face the lack of output and corporate debt crisis. People laugh at Trump wanting to start an infrastructure overhaul, but we need a program by the government to do something with the unemployed, or else these families won't have food.

I work for an investment firm and clearly you see my own investing beliefs, but take it from someone smarter than me in the "bear case" of Howard Mark's most recent memo.

Insights

www.oaktreecapital.com

 

[MegaBeefBowl]

I keep seeing people say that it doesn't make sense to cut your sales in half.

But, wouldn't they just make those sales later? When it releases physically? What evidence is there that those retail buyers just aren't going to buy the game anymore?

 

[cgpartlow]

I certainly think they should. In TLOU II's case, it's so high profile I actually think a lot of people would cave and get it digitally instead of waiting. PC is already all digital. I don't see how it screws physical people over anymore then it would if they waited. They still get the game at the same time either way. The only people this screws is retailers, but what retailer is going to say they won't stock the new console? They'd lose even more revenue.

 

[Deleted member 45414]

I mean digital is already the majority and that's why preloading exists. If they mean recession, that isn't going away for at least close to two years at best. Doubt they want to delay that long.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, I don't think they'll delay for years either, but for now I'm sure they're waiting to see if this becomes the new normal or if things are looking brighter in a few months...

 

[texhnolyze]

I keep seeing people say that it doesn't make sense to cut your sales in half.

But, wouldn't they just make those sales later? When it releases physically? What evidence is there that those retail buyers just aren't going to buy the game anymore?

Click to shrink...

Yeah, and what evidence that they won't just buy the game digitally. It doesn't make sense if you're looking forward to the game.

 

[NinjaScooter]

Yeah, and what evidence that they won't just buy the game digitally. It doesn't make sense if you're looking forward to the game.

Click to shrink...

There is a portion of your audience for whom digital may not be an option, either outright or due to preference. The point being why limit your audience at all vs waiting until the circumstances become more ideal? Is there any evidence that whey would lose sales by waiting and postponing launch?

 

[DontHateTheBacon]

That's really not how this works.

Just wait, if you can. If you can't, then just release it. Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo can wait if they choose.

Smaller pubs probably can't. That's ok.

Releasing only to people on Digital is just a mess for, ESPECIALLY, story-driven games, considering all people have to do right now is post on social media and stream and watch streams/videos. It would be a huge bummer to have waited this ENTIRE generation for something like TLOU2 only to be physical-only gamer for any myriad of reasons and get the whole thing spoiled before I could play the game.

Publishers have to do what they have to do though. If I could wait, I would.

EDIT: No idea how it's going in other countries truly, but in the last two weeks, like 10 million people filed for unemployment. Buying games and shit is probably at the lower end of the spectrum right about now for a lot of people; and that number is probably going to keep climbing.

 

[texhnolyze]

There is a portion of your audience for whom digital may not be an option, either outright or due to preference. The point being why limit your audience at all vs waiting until the circumstances become more ideal? Is there any evidence that whey would lose sales by waiting and postponing launch?

Click to shrink...

Of course not, and that's not what I'm implying.

 

[ClickyCal']

Yeah, I don't think they'll delay for years either, but for now I'm sure they're waiting to see if this becomes the new normal or if things are looking brighter in a few months...

Click to shrink...

Probably, I think it's out by september either way.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Im sure they had an extensive and expensive roll out plan - this completely changes that regardless is my point. What is the expectation here that things will go back to normal after this fairly fast? At what point does it become more of a loss to sit on the game than release it?

Click to shrink...

You're the only one talking about things needing to return to normal fast. No one has said that. All that has been said is that in the midst of what is going on in the world, the previous release date no longer made sense or was viable. That's it. It's delayed until they can find a time frame that works. When that will be we don't know but it's obvious that it will not be end of MAy.

EDIT: Just to add on to this it's seemed for a while that physical media in most scenarios has been on a trend towards being phased out - with most entertainment mediums. I know PC games are largely digital now but consoles seem slower to adopt it. The streaming services are dominating network TV. Look I like having physical media as much as the next guy - I have collected plenty of criterion Blu-rays myself but they're essentially worthless nowadays. Seems like the general trend is toward digital either way.

Click to shrink...

Digital will eventually phase out physical media's relevance completely. We aren't there yet however and you keep tying this whole thing to the release of the physical game. It's not solely about the method of delivery. I genuinely don't know how many more times it has to be said before you stop repeating this. They can't have a successful roll out when a large bulk of the traditional avenues for it are down and out. Just dumping the shit out digitally is not a solution for a game with this much importance.

It's not devil's advocate to say "well how long should they wait then". That answer become more clear as the corona virus situation becomes better understood. Lack of a definite answer on circumstances doesn't mean the first solution you think of is the one you jump on.

 

[Cantaim]

The other problem with releasing games digitally first is games that come bundled with the collectors edition. Not the cheap ones either but the really expensive 200+ ones. If you release your title digitally but then wait what 2-3 months at minimum to get the physical copy's out. Nobody is gonna want it. They'll just cancel the pre order and then you have to convince retailers to take these very expensive products that are just going to collect dust.

 

[Leo-Tyrant]

Well preload has been a thing for a few years for that exact reason.

Click to shrink...

How does preload solve the bandwidth and infrastructure general issues ? People will just download it anyways, just at a bit more random intervals (but still not far apart enough, you don't control how people will act as soon as the preload is available).

I dont see how your response solves my concern.

 

[Deleted member 64804]

You're the only one talking about things needing to return to normal fast. No one has said that. All that has been said is that in the midst of what is going on in the world, the previous release date no longer made sense or was viable. That's it. It's delayed until they can find a time frame that works. When that will be we don't know but it's obvious that it will not be end of MAy.



Digital will eventually phase out physical media's relevance completely. We aren't there yet however and you keep tying this whole thing to the release of the physical game. It's not solely about the method of delivery. I genuinely don't know how many more times it has to be said before you stop repeating this. They can't have a successful roll out when a large bulk of the traditional avenues for it are down and out. Just dumping the shit out digitally is not a solution for a game with this much importance.

It's not devil's advocate to say "well how long should they wait then". That answer become more clear as the corona virus situation becomes better understood. Lack of a definite answer on circumstances doesn't mean the first solution you think of is the one you jump on.

Click to shrink...

Yeah I asked what the projected scenarios are, how long do you sit on it before it becomes not profitable to do so? It's a genuine question. The whole thread is about prioritizing digital vs physical media during the crisis. That's why I'm tying it to the physical release, and I'm not specifically talking about the may release date - the idea that this will push things to digital is a very real possibility.

 

[Spartacris]

Movies usually realase 1st on theaters. Videogames, has always tried to release simultaneous, with exceptions to small indie tittles that only release digital.
With the spoiler culture, releasing only on one format would be, like i said, a big fuck you to physical buyers. Especially to such a massive tittle like TLOU2.

If they having trouble with logistics, they did the right move to just delay it to a later date.

Click to shrink...

Disagree. Especially in this circumstances. And doubly so if your main issue are spoilers.

Entertainment is a very necessary source of diversion and sanity right now. It can help people better transit this difficult times. If a game is finished, I believe publishers would do better to release their games digitally. They can fulfill a public role in doing so.

 

[Scruffy8642]

I mean they don't lose anything by holding it back, not like delays really affect sales. Just about whether they want to be pro-consumer, which frankly doesn't matter a whole lot.

 

[s0l0kill]

NO. Thats a big fuck you to everyone that only buys phisical. And those pie charts are misleading since the digital section includes DLC.

Click to shrink...

The Corona virus is the big fuck you, get with the times.

 

[Deleted member 51789]

I work in an adjacent business (not gaming but I deal with releasing media products - both digital and physical) and we've delayed a ton of releases. It's not all about literally getting the product in consumers hands. That's obviously possible through digital. There are other considerations around the current extraordinary circumstances. How does having 100% of your massive team working from home impact the next few months and the weeks/months following the launch of the product? How does the current climate fuck up your press rollout? Your advertising/media plan? Do consumers even have disposable income at the moment to be buying your game in the numbers you expected? Yes, your physical presence. Getting games in stores/supermarkets etc is about a lot more than just selling those copies. It's about mindshare. About having your product on shelves and the posters in windows being seen by thousands of people walking in and out of stores. You get one shot at a release and release week is absolutely huge in terms of your sales. I can completely understand why Sony would want to delay their biggest software launch of the year - maybe of the generation - to a time when it all just makes more sense. You can't simplify it by saying 'well they can just deliver it digitally'. They could but... is that what the team imagined when they spend x amount of years of their lives planning this release? Is that what Sony want when they've spent how ever many millions of dollars on making the thing and marketing it?

Click to shrink...

This, pretty much. Thread should have ended with this post.

 

[ShutterMunster]

No, just no.

 

[Chasing]

They wouldn't screw over retailers like that.

At least not yet.

 

[Metalmucil]

Wow, we've come a long way from the launch of Xbox One in 2013 to see a thread like this.

Click to shrink...

People keep creating threads out of their heart, instead of their head.

Click to shrink...

I think these right here sum it up for me. I would change the thread title to read:

During this crisis, I WANT publishers to release scheduled games digitally and postpone physical copies till later BECAUSE IT MEANS I PERSONALLY CAN STILL GET MY GAMES.

To me, it reads very "As long as I can get mine, screw anything else and any other possible effects it may have." Which, honestly, seems to be the prevailing sentiment with many people, regardless of subject.

 

[texhnolyze]

This, pretty much. Thread should have ended with this post.

Click to shrink...

That's just outright refusing to change your business strategy despite the circumstances. For what? For the sake of dignity?

 

[Kieli]

I'd say a little early and drastic to make that claim.

Click to shrink...

People said the exact same thing about COVID and look where that got us.

 

[Deleted member 51789]

Disagree. Especially in this circumstances. And doubly so if your main issue are spoilers.

Entertainment is a very necessary source of diversion and sanity right now. It can help people better transit this difficult times. If a game is finished, I believe publishers would do better to release their games digitally. They can fulfill a public role in doing so.

Click to shrink...

There's plenty of entertainment out there right now ready for the world to enjoy. .

What difference will a delay to one new game make to the world at a time like this?

 

[Deleted member 42484]

Wow, we've come a long way from the launch of Xbox One in 2013 to see a thread like this.

Click to shrink...

LOL no kidding.

 

[ClickyCal']

People said the exact same thing about COVID and look where that got us.

Click to shrink...

I mean there is a difference.

 

[ridaxan]

Yes. The less physical items to be shipped between countries, the better.