He's going to keep pushing that narrative until he's either A. dead or B. names a successor to Trumpism, likely one of his kids. It'll fall apart shortly after that because his kids lack his ability to sell bullshit with nearly the success he does, which is why they all ride his coattails everywhere.
He won't be in jail by the time the 2024 primaries start in 2023, it takes way longer to put a rich white guy in jail for financial felonies than that.
He won't publicly go bankrupt, there is money and power in propping up his MAGA circus, so even if all his mainstream creditors pull the plug on him you'll have dark money from conservative power brokers/special interests wanting to steer him as they see fit.
The real test for Trump is probably the runoff in Georgia. If his MAGA cult suddenly stay home for the runoff when he's not on the ticket, like they did for the 2018 midterms, and the Dems take the Senate his worth to the GOP, and their incentive to protect and prop him up, drops dramatically.
If that happens it'll be all-out civil war though. Most previous Presidents stepped well away from politics for several years after their term(s). Trump is going to feel real jilted when he finds out that now that he's out of office Mitch McConnell couldn't give two shits about him anymore. With Trump no longer relevant to the agenda he'll be set aside. If his cult won't even show up in elections without Trump McConnell and co. are going to try to shut him down as they know how much hay they've made on Dems historically being an every four years party. They can't afford to have Trump turn them into that.