Do you think the Switch's successor will be successful?

[Tom Nook Says...]

We are, more than likely, less than a year from some sort of follow up to the Switch being announced. So while we're on the tail end of being kept in the dark about the details, let's predict what we expect once it hits the shelves.

It was very common, once details of the Switch started leaking, to see people call it a Wii U 2.0 and speculate that it would sell just as poorly or even worse. "It's just a fully portable Wii U" was a common sentiment. Some even suggested it would be Nintendo's last console. Obviously that's not how things panned out which is to say that, even with some details available, these things are hard to predict.

At the same time, we can't assume the Switch 2/Pro/whatever will be successful because the Switch has been. We don't have to go far back in time to see that 7 out of every 8 people who bought a Wii didn't stick around to pick up a Wii U.

If we zoom out and look at Nintendo's home console trajectory, it's hard to establish a pattern. From the NES to the Gamecube, each Nintendo console sold worse than the last. The NES sold 62 million, followed by SNES at 49 million, then N64 at 33 million and finally Gamecube at just under 22 million. At that point there was a pretty clear pattern, but Nintendo console performance since has been... turbulent. The Wii sold nearly 5x what its predecessor sold at just over 101 million, and then its successor was Nintendo's worst performing console to date with only 13.5 million sales. And now, back to present day, the Switch has crossed over 80 million sales and will almost definitely be Nintendo's best selling console by the end of this year, and maaaybe their best selling hardware ever when all is said and done, and without a single price drop thus far.

I know there's speculation as to whether the "Switch Pro" will be an actual generation change from the Switch or something more akin to the New 3DS. So, for the sake of discussion, let's assume the successor we're speculating on is a full generational change where Switch 2 software won't run on an OG Switch and so on. Given that the "Switch Pro" will be launching at least 4.5 years after the OG Switch, it's hard to imagine it not being a generational shift, personally. At this point in the PS4's life the Pro model had been on the market for nearly a year, as a point of comparison. Similarly, the New 3DS had been on sale for several months at this point in the 3DS' lifecycle. So it feels to me that the time for a "pro" model may have come and gone. After 4 years+ I think most consumers expect a substantial upgrade.

So, what are your expectations for the Switch 2? Will it be too much of the same and consumers won't see the point in picking one up? Will they do the classic Nintendo thing and launch something out of left field that ends up being too "weird", as the Wii U arguably was, or will the high-risk approach work as it did with the Wii? Something else entirely? Obviously share your rationale, otherwise this isn't a very fruitful discussion. This is already a long OP so I'll add my speculation a bit later.

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

I think it'll flop in the sense that it'll only get the Nintendo hardcore but that number will have risen from when the Wii U released so it'll sell around 30 million.

 

[LegendofLex]

This depends so much on the software that it's pointless to speculate now.

 

[fiendcode]

Whatever Era decides: it'll be the opposite

 

[RelaxItsJustMe]

I think if they call it the Switch 2 and not the Switch U, it'll have a much higher chance of success :).

 

[cw_sasuke]

Don't see this train stopping anytime soon.
Assuming a solid price, full BC and MK9 near launch.

 

[haotshy]

It'll be a Nintendo handheld (and console), so of course it'll do well. I don't know about Wii numbers, but it'll be very successful.

 

[Derachi]

Furukawa literally keeps saying we're about halfway through the Switch's life cycle. We have about 3-4 years before a successor. What's coming out soon is upgraded hardware, not a full-on replacement. If the Switch is the Nintendo DS, it'll be the DSi, not the 3DS.

 

[Deleted member 91227]

I think the poll options are tough as if it's a mid-gen refresh ala the PS4 Pro or Xbox One X it wouldn't be expected to sell huge numbers. It would be aimed mostly at getting current hardcore owners who want better fps and higher resolution to double dip. I'd expect a similar % of Switch owners to upgrade to a Switch Pro as whatever was seen for for PS4 to PS4 Pro. Maybe a dad loader since more of the Nintendo market is families and more casual gamers perhaps and those owners may be less likely to upgrade to play the same games with better peformance/resolution.

If it's a true Switch successor (unlikely if it's coming out this year as the Switch is only 4 next month), that's a different story. I'd expect similar success to the Switch if they don't do anything crazy and stick with the hybrid focus and an affordable price etc.

 

[Lord Fanny]

We're likely less than a year from a successor?

 

[AViewtifulMind]

I don't think we'll see the Switch successor launch before 2024. The reason being that Nintendo repeatedly answered to investors that the plan is to give Switch a longer lifecycle than previous Nintendo consoles, meaning it will be more than six years before Switch gets replaced.

As for the success of the Switch successor, it will naturally depend on the direction Nintendo takes. This cannot be determined until Nintendo actually unveils it. However, it's much more likely than not that the Switch successor will be a continuation of the hybrid concept for two reasons:

1. Nintendo's business revolves around only one console now, so they have to be more deliberate in what they do. They can't afford an attitude of "it's not so bad if a console underperforms because we have another one alongside it that can mitigate the financial shortcomings."

2. The competition with Sony and Microsoft forces Nintendo to have a unique value proposition with their own hardware, because both Sony and Microsoft are companies who can leverage other divisions of their company to subsidize their console business, meaning Nintendo cannot realistically compete in a financial war of attrition in the long term. The other companies can sell hardware at a loss and throw more money at third party publishers to secure content. What's clear is that neither Sony or Microsoft are capable or even willing to challenge Switch's unique value proposition, so Nintendo can stay on this exact same course in the future. And by being the only company to provide Switch-like consoles to the market, they are in a very strong position going forward.

Beyond that, any competent analysis has to include the sales history of Nintendo's handhelds, because Switch has never been only the successor to Nintendo's home console line, but the successor to both the home console and the handheld console lines of Nintendo. I hope that it doesn't need to be mentioned on a forum like this that Nintendo's handheld console sales have always been big, but I mention it anyway because you can never be sure.

Taking all of that into account, sales higher than 100m for the Switch successor are a safe bet if Nintendo stays true to what made Switch successful: A healthy balance between size, power and battery life of the device, spearheaded into the market by a strong first party lineup during its first year.

 

[Redcrayon]

Given how successful the Switch is I really don't think they'll be announcing a successor with software that won't run on a regular Switch inside of a year. I don't think we can extrapolate anything from the prior home console pattern when they changed up 28 years of having a home console and handheld in tandem with their current product and it's a smash hit. If I had to guess, I'd say any Switch follow-up is likely to be a DSi or n3DS type incremental upgrade instead, where it's largely the same and runs the same games, but with a power boost and maybe there's just a couple of exclusive games that need it. Then a full-on follow up a couple years later.

Still, in the spirit of the thought experiment where Switch 2, a new Nintendo console with games that don't run on Switch, is a matter of months away from being unveiled, here's what I think:
1) It keeps the Switch branding. It's functional, descriptive and successful.
2) obviously it then keeps the hybrid design style of working as a portable or a home console. Not convinced tabletop mode is essential.
3) Iwata's evocation of Apple's business model, of a series of devices all playing the same games, carries on. So backwards compatible.
4) Games are still on carts.
5) Joycons likely to be the thing that gets the most thought and reworking. The current ones aren't great and the need to repair them must cost them.
6) Ring Fit was a breakout hit. Expect whatever it is to work with a sequel, so some kind of joycon interaction.

So, all in all, I think a DSi-type upgrade with a couple of exclusive games is most likely for their next main hardware item. But, when the generational leap happens for them 2-3 years later, and we hit a full 'Switch 2', im not expecting major changes away from the Switch model, as they've only just started it and it was a smash hit that solves a number of problems for them out of the gate.

Maybe I'm wrong on all this, I feel those are fairly conservative guesses though

 

[AfropunkNyc]

As long as the Eshop remains in tack and you can play your old games on the new switch then i dont see why it wouldn't be successful.

 

[Arthoneceron]

There's only two ways for the Switch successor not being sucessful:

1- if they took too much time to release and it come without the same appeal; or
2- They insist on having another big inovation that people will find it cool for like six months and then stop to use.

A third option it would be to release a purpousely weak device and market in the wrong way for the wrong public, but hey! It's Nintendo that we're talking about, this kind of stuff is almost certain to happen, even with huge hits.

 

[gothmog]

If it has a handheld form factor, BC, and is priced reasonably I see no reason that it won't be successful.

 

[Dekuman]

I think a meteor could hit the planet which makes this thread and our lives moot.
I'd imagine we need to wait for a successor to be announced first before making a thread like this (and even then think about how many people got their Switch predictions wrong ) because right now you're guess is as good as mine and it's just another outlet for frustrated console warriors to vent with their big brained predictions.

 

[daybreak]

The one releasing within the next 12 months won't be a follow-up to the Switch, it'll be a revision that will just have sales counting towards the total Switch family of consoles.

That being said, it's impossible to guess how the actual next console from Nintendo will sell.

 

[Hieroph]

Switch U will sell better than Wii U. No doubt about it.

 

[Tomo815]

It will be a disaster of Virtual Boy's proportions.

 

[Gacha Santa Alter]

It's Nintendo. Who the fuck knows.

 

[Tom Nook Says...]

This depends so much on the software that it's pointless to speculate now.

Click to shrink...

That's actually part of why I feel the Switch 2 has an uphill climb to be in the same ballpark as the Switch in terms of hardware sales. I think it's safe to say that the Switch's plethora of Wii U ports has been immensely beneficial (their best selling title is a Wii U port) to the Switch overall. And since the Wii U sold so poorly, these are effectively brand new games to the vast majority of Switch owners. I'd imagine many people bought games like MK8D and Tropical Freeze unaware they were even on the Wii U before. However, it won't make as much sense to do this with Switch2 because not only are the games available to a very broad user base already which makes porting them over less saavy, but also because so much of the software available to port is already a "deluxe edition" thanks to having been ported from the Wii U or PS4 in some cases. Now of course you *can* just go ahead and port them over anyway, but it's not as enticing when you're more likely to be targeting consumers willing to double dip rather than consumers seizing an opportunity to play something they'd initially missed out on.

So, in some ways, it seems the Switch 2 will be starting from scratch to create a compelling software library that reels people in, while the Switch had the ace up its sleeve of like a dozen really great Wii U titles that effectively no one had played. It really feels like a number of factors just lined up well for the Switch that would be difficult to replicate for its successor.

 

[Uncle Squingis]

The Succ will definitely be very succ.

 

[neoak]

What we are getting is a "New 3DS" version of the Switch

 

[wrowa]

It's completely nonsensical to make any kind of predictions when we don't know anything about its successor yet. Having "Switch 2" and "Switch Pro" sitting alongside in the poll makes the result worthless too, since those would be fundamentally different devices with different target audiences - new generation versus add-on to an existing generation. That makes for two entirely different questions.

If Nintendo's next generation will be an improved Switch, then I don't see any reason why it would flop. The concept works, it's appealing to the market and not build around a novelty idea that grows old. It's super solid and future proof in that regard.

 

[Deleted member 59126]

You want us to predict the success about the thing we know nothing about, coming out who knows when?

 

[blacktout]

Furukawa literally keeps saying we're about halfway through the Switch's life cycle. We have about 3-4 years before a successor. What's coming out soon is upgraded hardware, not a full-on replacement. If the Switch is the Nintendo DS, it'll be the DSi, not the 3DS.

Click to shrink...

The one releasing within the next 12 months won't be a follow-up to the Switch, it'll be a revision that will just have sales counting towards the total Switch family of consoles.

Click to shrink...

This. If the poll is referring to the Switch revision, then its units are going to be counted with those of the OG Switch and Switch Lite, meaning 100+ million is all but guaranteed across the family of systems.

Meanwhile, if the poll means a true Switch successor—assuming Nintendo doesn't go the iphone incremental revision route—then I think it's impossible to even guess, since we have absolutely no idea what this hypothetical system will look like, when it'll launch, or how profoundly the gaming market will have changed in the intervening years.

 

[Edge]

Nah. People buy 1000$ phones yearly but just stop buying Nintendo products.

 

[Tom Nook Says...]

Given how successful the Switch is I really don't think they'll be announcing a successor with software that won't run on a regular Switch inside of a year. I don't think we can extrapolate anything from the prior home console pattern when they changed up 28 years of having a home console and handheld in tandem with their current product and it's a smash hit. If I had to guess, I'd say any Switch follow-up is likely to be a DSi or n3DS type incremental upgrade instead, where it's largely the same and runs the same games, but with a power boost and maybe there's just a couple of exclusive games that need it. Then a full-on follow up a couple years later.

Still, in the spirit of the thought experiment where Switch 2, a new Nintendo console with games that don't run on Switch, is a matter of months away from being unveiled, here's what I think:
1) It keeps the Switch branding. It's functional, descriptive and successful.
2) obviously it then keeps the hybrid design style of working as a portable or a home console. Not convinced tabletop mode is essential.
3) Iwata's evocation of Apple's business model, of a series of devices all playing the same games, carries on. So backwards compatible.
4) Games are still on carts.
5) Joycons likely to be the thing that gets the most thought and reworking. The current ones aren't great and the need to repair them must cost them.
6) Ring Fit was a breakout hit. Expect whatever it is to work with a sequel, so some kind of joycon interaction.

So, all in all, I think a DSi-type upgrade with a couple of exclusive games is most likely for their next main hardware item. But, when the generational leap happens for them 2-3 years later, and we hit a full 'Switch 2', im not expecting major changes away from the Switch model, as they've only just started it and it was a smash hit that solves a number of problems for them out of the gate.

Maybe I'm wrong on all this, I feel those are fairly conservative guesses though

Click to shrink...

This all sounds very reasonable to me.

Of course the possibility that "Switch Pro" is something more like a DSi is fairly high, despite my rationale in the OP as to why they might opt for a full jump. I tailored the discussion toward a full generational leap because it makes for a more interesting discussion, not because I'd totally preclude something shy of that by any means. Nintendo has a habit of sitting on successful hardware too long however (hello Wii) so they may want to preempt any loss of momentum this time around and not wait until the Switch starts bottoming out to replace it.

 

[Tom Nook Says...]

You want us to predict the success about the thing we know nothing about, coming out who knows when?

Click to shrink...

Why not? It's, like, a completely voluntary thought experiment.

 

[Jencks]

There's literally no way of knowing so I'll guess it will be very successful because why not

 

[Eoin]

Probably as well as the Switch, or close to it. I don't think it will do very much worse than the Switch, unless Nintendo manage to make some really stupid decisions.

It's not impossible that Nintendo might do that (the Wii U was a series of just plainly exceptionally stupid decisions), but when it comes to building a successor machine, the Switch has a much more obvious follow-up than the Wii did. With the Wii Nintendo kind of painted themselves into a corner, building a machine and an audience that weren't interested in traditional games consoles that sold based on escalating power, which left Nintendo with no easy way to move that market to the next machine.

The Switch doesn't have that issue. It is a traditional games machine in almost every sense, and even the way it's not traditional is due to its ability to shift between the two traditional modes of play. Where the Wii didn't really have an obvious route towards a successor, I bet most people here could bullet-point out a good summary of what will be the Switch successor without thinking much about it: very similar form factor, somewhat better screen, updated Nvidia mobile APU, same control scheme except hopefully with the standard controllers not being made from garbage.

That gives them a bunch of selling points straight away. It'll be the most powerful handheld ever, there'll be performance and/or resolution bumps in both docked and handheld, it'll presumably be backwards compatible with close to 100% of the Switch library (maybe even with performance boosts - and there's plenty of games that could benefit from that), and the increased power will allow a range of games to be ported more easily. With the success of the Switch and the near certainty that the follow-up will be closer to the weakest hardware of this generation (XSS) than the Switch was to the Xbox One, it should be open to a higher percentage of multiplatform games (as well as ports of PS4/Xbox One games that the Switch missed out on).

 

[Glio]

The difference in sales between a revision and a new generation is so huge that I can't even understand this thread.

 

[Deleted member 12352]

It's a toss-up for me tbh. Looking at the 3DS/Wii U and how much worse than their predecessors both did it's a tough call.

I'm inclined to say "probably, but nowhere near as successful as the Switch"... especially if Nintendo takes the 'more of the same' approach. Gimmick novelty presumably wouldn't be as big a driver two gens in a row.

 

[cw_sasuke]

It's a toss-up for me tbh. Looking at the 3DS/Wii U and how much worse than their predecessors both did it's a tough call.

I'm inclined to say "probably, but nowhere near as successful as the Switch"... especially if Nintendo takes the 'more of the same' approach. Gimmick novelty presumably wouldn't be as big a driver two gens in a row.

Click to shrink...

They still sold 85m devices in the WiiU/3DS gen.

It's pretty much impossible for Nintendo to sell much less systems per gen unless IPs that have been strong for decades suddenly all lose relevance.

 

[mnk]

I don't think it'll be AS successful, because it's just hard to keep the same casuals from console to console. But as long as it's still a hybrid and it still gets good Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, etc... games in a timely fashion, it shouldn't have any trouble keeping momentum going. I would also hope for enough of a hardware leap that ports will be even easier, or that companies like Capcom and Atlus will have an easier time adjusting so it doesn't take 4+ years to get their heavy hitters out.

 

[Tom Nook Says...]

The difference in sales between a revision and a new generation is so huge that I can't even understand this thread.

Click to shrink...

For the sake of the poll I'm operating on the assumption that the "Switch Pro" or "Switch 2" or "Super Switch" or whatever they decide to call it will be a proper generational leap. I realize I may have made it a bit confusing since some take "Switch Pro" to mean revision and "Switch 2" to mean generational leap, but this is the company that paid a lot of people a lot of money to ultimately decide the follow-up to the massively successful Wii should be called a Wii U, so I don't think we could say for sure what Nintendo would land on name wise.

 

[metal]

I'm a bit cautious on it. Knowing Nintendo they will bungle the name and everyone walking into a store will assume it's a Switch accessory.

I worked at GameStop during the Wii U release, shit was awful lol.

 

[Pooroomoo]

The difference in sales between a revision and a new generation is so huge that I can't even understand this thread.

Click to shrink...

It's even worse. I tried writing 3 times a response as to how much the thread premise (and mentioned "facts") did not make sense (making the poll worthless), and just gave up. I mean, I guess everything is allowed when this is considered a "thought experiment". The OP just reads like a compilation of bad takes to me.

Here's what I'd do to make things clearer - change the poll question to "Let's assume Switch 2, an actual Switch successor, comes out this year - how much do you this it will sell?"

 

[Deleted member 86891]

Furukawa literally keeps saying we're about halfway through the Switch's life cycle. We have about 3-4 years before a successor. What's coming out soon is upgraded hardware, not a full-on replacement. If the Switch is the Nintendo DS, it'll be the DSi, not the 3DS.

Click to shrink...

or like the 3DS/new 3DS. I don't expect most games to take advantage of any upgrades

 

[Deleted member 42484]

This depends so much on the software that it's pointless to speculate now.

Click to shrink...

Pretty much.
The Switch form factor and branding was great, but it's hard not to credit that first year of games (BOTW, MK8, odyssey, Splatoon 2) as the catalyst for it's great success. No way a WiiU/3DS type launch would achieve that.

 

[Ignis]

I expect it to have a built in toaster so 200mm sales are locked in.

 

[Eoin]

I think it's safe to say that the Switch's plethora of Wii U ports has been immensely beneficial (their best selling title is a Wii U port) to the Switch overall. And since the Wii U sold so poorly, these are effectively brand new games to the vast majority of Switch owners. I'd imagine many people bought games like MK8D and Tropical Freeze unaware they were even on the Wii U before. However, it won't make as much sense to do this with Switch2 because not only are the games available to a very broad user base already which makes porting them over less saavy, but also because so much of the software available to port is already a "deluxe edition" thanks to having been ported from the Wii U or PS4 in some cases.

Click to shrink...

This is all true.

However, backwards compatibility makes this a two-sided point. The Wii U library gave the Switch a bunch of games that could be ported and that would sell well to a new audience, and Nintendo didn't have to pay too much to get those games onto Switch - certainly much less than building them from scratch. That really helped flesh out the Switch library and especially Nintendo's contribution to it.

The next Switch won't get that exact benefit. Nintendo's Switch 2 games will mostly need to be developed from scratch. However, the Switch 2 will (presumably) already have the benefit of a huge existing library and an established successful brand, so there'll be less urgency building out the range of games for people to play. People buying the Switch 2 will have tons of games to play, and although a lot of those games will likely be familiar to them already, there should still be plenty of stuff that's new to them. Plus, if Nintendo make one of the more obvious potential backwards compatibility improvements and let Switch games run on Switch 2 in the original Switch's docked hardware profile, then most of those Switch games will receive noticeably large improvements in handheld mode.

However, if Nintendo decide that they need to augment the Switch 2 library with new ports of older Nintendo games, I don't think they're going to be stuck for choice any time soon. They might have mined the Wii U library almost to depletion, but that's not the only place where they can dig.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Given that the "Switch Pro" will be launching at least 4.5 years after the OG Switch, it's hard to imagine it not being a generational shift, personally. At this point in the PS4's life the Pro model had been on the market for nearly a year, as a point of comparison. Similarly, the New 3DS had been on sale for several months at this point in the 3DS' lifecycle. So it feels to me that the time for a "pro" model may have come and gone. After 4 years+ I think most consumers expect a substantial upgrade.

Click to shrink...

In a word.....Eh?

Furukawa literally keeps saying we're about halfway through the Switch's life cycle. We have about 3-4 years before a successor. What's coming out soon is upgraded hardware, not a full-on replacement. If the Switch is the Nintendo DS, it'll be the DSi, not the 3DS.

Click to shrink...

We're likely less than a year from a successor?

Click to shrink...

These.

 

[MisterHero]

If Nintendo makes a platform that is open to new, advanced next-gen software that is also back-compatible to all Switch software, they could just build on Switch's userbase and just not ask the question.

 

[Deleted member 12352]

They still sold 85m devices in the WiiU/3DS gen.

It's pretty much impossible for Nintendo to sell much less systems per gen unless IPs that have been strong for decades suddenly all lose relevance.

Click to shrink...

I don't doubt it'll do some big business, I wasn't trying to suggest otherwise. There's likely no way it'll actually flop or anything in any real way. I just think any Switch successor is going to have a tougher time becoming a major cultural phenom like the Switch has managed.

85m is a solid number in isolation... but when that's coming off the heels of a gen where they sold something like 250m?

 

[RedOnePunch]

Switches are selling like crazy, why would Nintendo release a successor now?

 

[Tom Nook Says...]

It's even worse. I tried writing 3 times a response as to how much the thread premise (and mentioned "facts") did not make sense (making the poll worthless), and just gave up. I mean, I guess everything is allowed when this is considered a "thought experiment". The OP just reads like a compilation of bad takes to me.

Here's what I'd do to make things clearer - change the poll question to "Let's assume Switch 2, an actual Switch successor, comes out this year - how much do you this it will sell?"

Click to shrink...

That's a fair critique. I didn't consider the extent to which "Switch Pro" is associated with a revision rather than replacement, even though I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to call their next gen "Switch Pro" and confuse consumers as they did with Wii U.

 

[DoctorChimp]

So if the rumors are to be believed about the Switch successor, performance wise, I don't see it not being wildly successful. The Switch's third party support is the best Nintendo has gotten in YEARS. A more powerful system that can handle modern ports would see no reason of getting all the latest games. And imagine Nintendo games with no serious hardware compromises.

It certainly would, easily, replace any gaming console I'd have. Especially since I have a PC =)

 

[javac]

if they stick to one system and it happens to have that game franchise called Pokemon on it then it's a guaranteed hit, worst case scenario is it sells decent, but it'd be impossible to fail.

 

[Tom Nook Says...]

Switches are selling like crazy, why would Nintendo release a successor now?

Click to shrink...

The last time they waited for a console to effectively die before replacing it they ended up with the Wii U (which of course had additional problems to contend with like its name.) Also, bear in mind my premise is that a successor is likely to be *announced* within a year, not released. I think it's safe to say this will be the Switch's peak year. It'd be smart to have something new lined up and announced within a year from now because, again, the last time they assumed based on 3rd and 4th year sales that they were in no rush, they ended up with a console that was effectively dead for a year before being replaced, and by then only the most die-hard fans cared.